Scenario for Germany 2017

[buritobr]

Consider that Tsipras become a popular leader in Europe in 2017 and that following Syriza and Podemos, many Europeans start considering new left parties better option than traditional center-left parties. Consider that although most of the Germans aprove Merkel, they consider that 12 years is enough and that AFD become an alternative for the right instead of the traditional CDU/CSU.

So, consider this result for the federal election in 2017 (between ( ), the % of the seats in the Bundestag)

CDU/CSU 30% (30.9%)
Linke 25% (25.8%)
SPD 18% (18.6%)
Grünen 11% (11.3%)
AFD 7% (7.2%)
FDP 6% (6.2%)
Others 3%

In this scenario, a grand coalition would not me possible anymore because CDU/CSU+SPD would have 49.5% of the seats. Only one coalition would be possible: rot-rot-grün. Considering that Linke had more votes than SPD and Grünen, this coalition should have a Linke leadership.
If the result is this one, will Germany have a Linke Chancellor leading a red-red-green coalition?

[windjammer]

Ay lmao

Merkel will get around 38-42

[DC Al Fine]

Ay lmao

Merkel will get around 38-42

This. Plus Linke have a bit more... baggage than say Podemos or Syriza, and Lord knows Germany is doing better than Greece or Spain.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Why wouldn't a grand coalition continue, but with the addition of the FDP/Greens?

[windjammer]

Ay lmao

Merkel will get around 38-42

This. Plus Linke have a bit more... baggage than say Podemos or Syriza, and Lord knows Germany is doing better than Greece or Spain.

Oh yes, thanks for pointing out that too DC. Yeah, Germany is the most pro-austerity country. And Die Linke isn't really a "keynesian" party like Podemos etc etc. You know the former communist party from East Germany.

[Yeahsayyeah]

The polls haven't changed much since the election in 2013 (with the exception of the AfD wave which is at least over for now). There is no reason, they will change much if they haven't despite of NSA, NSU, Ukraine, Greece, refugees, TTIP, data retention, minimum wage, pensions reform ( in the opposite direction as the same government forces Greece to go, btw) etc.

According to the polls around 60 per cent are satisfied with the government's stance in the negotiations with Grece and 25 per cent say, they are too soft. Of the remaining 15 per cent, most are already voting Left, Greens or to some extent SPD. Not much room to grow on this issue for the Left.

Of course, the government would become unpopular if they had to put through harsh austerity measures in Germany. "Pro-austerity" would dwindle, but on the other hand many would claim it's the fault of "greedy asylum moochers" and the electoral consequences would be dire.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Consider that Tsipras become a popular leader in Europe in 2017 and that following Syriza and Podemos, many Europeans start considering new left parties better option than traditional center-left parties. Consider that although most of the Germans aprove Merkel, they consider that 12 years is enough and that AFD become an alternative for the right instead of the traditional CDU/CSU.

So, consider this result for the federal election in 2017 (between ( ), the % of the seats in the Bundestag)

CDU/CSU 30% (30.9%)
Linke 25% (25.8%)
SPD 18% (18.6%)
Grünen 11% (11.3%)
AFD 7% (7.2%)
FDP 6% (6.2%)
Others 3%

In this scenario, a grand coalition would not me possible anymore because CDU/CSU+SPD would have 49.5% of the seats. Only one coalition would be possible: rot-rot-grün. Considering that Linke had more votes than SPD and Grünen, this coalition should have a Linke leadership.
If the result is this one, will Germany have a Linke Chancellor leading a red-red-green coalition?

AfD is currently in the process of breaking apart, and I can't really see the Left getting more than 15% nationally even under the best of circumstances.

[palandio]

Remember that both Greece and Spain have very high unemployment. The described scenario would only be realistic if a massive economic crisis were to happen in Germany, with repercussions to the labor market.

That being said, the CDU on a whole is weaker than the federal numbers suggest, and a shift away from Merkel and away from the perception "We have stability, we stay better than the others" might lead to a result in the low 30s.

Ideologically I don't consider the Linke more extreme than for example Podemos.
Iglesias some years ago said that leninists like him had to find a new language in order to connect to the ordinary people of today. Now he seems to have succeeded and is therefore a crypto-leninist.
The Linke is quite heterogeneous, but generally speaking the East German part of the party is more pragmatic and moderate. Many "fundies" like Lafontaine and Riexinger on the other hand are ultra-(left-)Keynesian ex-social democrats, not communists.

[Hydera]

Is this a joke?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

It's not about the ideology of Linke vs Podemos; it's about the nature of the respective parties. There is a reason Spaniards haven't rushed to IU, and that party has far less baggage attached.

[Beezer]

That must be some good weed...

[palandio]

The non-international section of The Atlas forum is full of stuff like this.
What about a hypothetical match-up Sanders vs. Santorum vs. Paul vs. Manchin in 2016? What if...? Can you immagine the Libertarian Party/Green Party winning the 2020 presidential election? etc.

[republicanbayer]

Consider that Tsipras become a popular leader in Europe in 2017 and that following Syriza and Podemos, many Europeans start considering new left parties better option than traditional center-left parties. Consider that although most of the Germans aprove Merkel, they consider that 12 years is enough and that AFD become an alternative for the right instead of the traditional CDU/CSU.

So, consider this result for the federal election in 2017 (between ( ), the % of the seats in the Bundestag)

CDU/CSU 30% (30.9%)
Linke 25% (25.8%)
SPD 18% (18.6%)
Grünen 11% (11.3%)
AFD 7% (7.2%)
FDP 6% (6.2%)
Others 3%

In this scenario, a grand coalition would not me possible anymore because CDU/CSU+SPD would have 49.5% of the seats. Only one coalition would be possible: rot-rot-grün. Considering that Linke had more votes than SPD and Grünen, this coalition should have a Linke leadership.
If the result is this one, will Germany have a Linke Chancellor leading a red-red-green coalition?

Even if this scenario won't happen, let me answer your question: An SPD-lead red-red-green isn't very likely on federal level, so it's completely impossible if this coalition were lead by the Left party.

[Beezer]

I'd say it's not entirely inconceivable that Margot Honecker will return from Chile to lead the country in such a scenario.

[andrew_c]

In this scenario, I think that a national unity government consisting of CDU/CSU, SPD, FDP, and GRN is the most likely.  I doubt any of the parties would want to support a LINKE led federal government.