Hillary's best state in the general?

[Figueira]

DC isn't a state obviously.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

Arkansas, duh.

[eric82oslo]

Hard to say at this point. Vermont and New York will be top five though, probably California as well, mainly due to its 37-38% latino population coupled with the extreme speed at which it's trending Democratic. Hawaii is just 23% white, so there's no reason why she wouldn't do great there as well.

[Sir Mohamed]

Hawaii, she'll end up with almost of 80%. NY may be 67-72%.

[Crumpets]

Hawaii, she'll end up with almost of 80%. NY may be 67-72%.

Why would Hawaii swing nearly 9 points to the Democrats when their favorite son will no longer be on the ballot? Is Hillary going to pick Tulsi Gabbard as her running mate?

Voted New York, although I think it will be very close with Vermont.

[ElectionsGuy]

Vermont

[Suburbia]

Rhode Island or New York. Hawaii next.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Vermont

Depends on the Republican, but I highly doubt it.  I'll go with NY.

[Clark Kent]

New York. Obama was hurt in Arkansas a lot partly because he beat "favorite daughter" Hillary Clinton in 2008. The same might hurt Clinton in 2016 in Vermont when she beats Sanders. Also, Clinton served as a US Senator from New York for eight years, and Hawaii is unlikely to go as Democratic as it did without Obama.

[Skye]

Vermont (if Hawaii reverses to pre-Obama levels of Dem. blue).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Aside from NY; Ca will be the biggest electoral prize.

[Xing]

Obviously Colorado.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Aside from NY; Ca will be the biggest electoral prize.

Lol, okay?

[Bojack Horseman]

I'm going with Hawaii. Even with the nationwide average of a 2-point drop for Obama, Hawaii still went 70% for Barack Obama.

[MATTROSE94]

Probably New York. I feel that Hillary Clinton could potentially get in the high 60s-low 70s in New York depending on who the Republicans nominate and stands a good chance at carrying every county in the state as well.

[Mister Mets]

My guess is Vermont.

It's several points to the left of New York.

Hawaii is likely to have a slight decline because Obama's not on the ticket (and favorite son bounces are more significant in small states.)

[politicallefty]

I think Hillary's max in NY is probably around 67-68%, which is what she got in her reelection to the Senate in 2006. A staunch socially conservative nominee could bump that up marginally. If there's a strong social conservative at the top of the Republican ticket, I think Vermont could break 70% for the Democratic nominee with ease. New England (and the greater Northeast) will be a wasteland for any staunch social conservative at the top of the Republican ticket.

I think Vermont will likely stay as it is, so it's a really a contest between it and NY. Either way, they're both pushing into the high-60s (maybe into the 70s). Without Obama, Hawaii will probably drop into the mid-60s.

I think the bigger question overall is whether or not any state will be above 70% for any party. Right now, I doubt that happening, although it is certainly possibility. With fresh nominees, I expect both Hawaii and Utah to drop back down to the >60% category.

[Nyvin]

I would say New York I suppose,   Vermonters might be bitter about not getting to elect Sanders still.

[Kingpoleon]

New York. Obama was hurt in Arkansas a lot partly because he beat "favorite daughter" Hillary Clinton in 2008. The same might hurt Clinton in 2016 in Vermont when she beats Sanders. Also, Clinton served as a US Senator from New York for eight years, and Hawaii is unlikely to go as Democratic as it did without Obama.

Hillary Clinton is not popular in Arkansas. Period.

[Milquetoast]

I think it'll be New York. Vermont is more liberal but I can see them giving a larger vote share to Independent candidates than New York will.

[ElectionsGuy]

Vermont

Depends on the Republican, but I highly doubt it.  I'll go with NY.

With the Republican party the way it is today, they will never get more than 35% in Vermont (no matter the candidate). I really don't know why everyone is choosing New York. How much better can Hillary do than Obama? Upstate already leans D, and the city is maxed out.

[Nichlemn]

I think Obama was an unusually good fit for Hawaii (obviously) and Vermont. If we look back to Kerry/Gore numbers, NY was similarly or more Democratic than the other states, and with just a tiny home state edge it'd be Hillary's best state.