Election 2020 - Ducey V. Clinton V. Sanders

[Maxwell]

Prologue, Part 1

2016 Republican Primary 1st Ballot



Jeb Bush - 1038 Delegates
Rand Paul - 602 Delegates
Ted Cruz - 553 Delegates
Rick Santorum
Marco Rubio
Ben Carson

The Republican convention was a nightmare for the party in 2016. Three waring factions who couldn't be less aggressive towards one another threw bombs at each other throughout the balloting process. Many thought Paul and Cruz would unite against Bush, but Cruz's ego got in the way, and he wrote a speech angering the Paul people. The delegates for both candidates, disengaged with both, wanted an alternative to the three. A majority group of delegates eventually found an early forgotten candidate - John Kasich. Kasich, however, could only win their support if he picked a staunch conservative as his Vice Presidential nominee, and so this happened...

Governor John Kasich (R-OH)/Former Governor Rick Perry (R-TX)

Though Kasich/Perry eventually knocked out the Paulist delegates after completely decimating Bush and Cruz's support, they started out the general election far behind and never broke out. With the economy returning to sound shape, Obama leaving office with approvals in the mid 50s, and Kasich never breaking out as a candidate who could bridge the gap to minoirities or even residents of his own state, Clinton sweeped the General Election rather easily.

Former S.o.S. Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Martin Heinrich (D-NM) - 53%, 347 EV's
Governor John Kasich (R-OH)/Former Governor Rick Perry (R-TX) - 45%, 191 EV's

Senate
Alabama - 68% Shelby, 30% Crumpton (R Hold)
Alaska - 55% Dunleavy, 43% Josephson (R Hold)
Arizona - 51% McCain, 46% Kirkpatrick (R Hold)
Arkansas - 60% Boozman, 36% Lee Witt (R Hold)
California - 58% Harris, 42% Sanchez (D Hold)
Colorado - 56% Bennet, 42% Hill (D Hold)
Connecticut - 69% Blumenthal, 28% Davis (D Hold)
Florida - 50% Murphy, 48% Jolly (D+1)
Georgia - 56% Isakson, 44% Barrow (R Hold)
Hawaii - 70% Schatz, 26% Wolfe (D Hold)
Idaho - 63% Crapo, 36% Willis (R Hold)
Illinois - 54% Duckworth, 44% Kirk (D+1)
Indiana - 52% Young, 45% Hill (R Hold)
Iowa - 59% Grassley, 40% Fiegen (R Hold)
Kansas - 73% Moran, 24% Ricks (R Hold)
Kentucky - 56% Heiner, 40% Adkins (R Hold)
Louisiana - 61% Boustany, 39% Jackson (R Hold)
Maryland - 58% Van Hollen, 38% Kefalas (D Hold)
Missouri - 53% Blunt, 44% Kander (R Hold)
Nevada - 50% Masto, 49% Heck (D Hold)
New Hampshire - 52% Ayotte, 46% Kuster (R Hold)
New York - 71% Schumer, 24% Stevens (D Hold)
North Carolina - 57% Burr, 39% Blue (R Hold)
North Dakota - 100% Hoeven (R Hold)
Ohio - 52% Portman, 45% Strickland (R Hold)
Oklahoma - 72% Lankford, 28% Johnston (R Hold)
Oregon - 61% Wyden, 36% Addisson (D Hold)
Pennsylvania - 54% Toomey, 46% Sestak (R Hold)
South Carolina - 66% Scott, 34% Tui (R Hold)
South Dakota - 68% Thune, 29% Green (R Hold)
Utah - 57% Lee, 40% Mann (R Hold)
Vermont - 100% Leahy (D Hold)
Washington - 62% Murray, 38% Didier (D Hold)
Wisconsin - 52% Feingold, 46% Johnson (D+1)

51-49 in the U.S. Senate

Governor
Delaware - 53% Carney, 44% Bonini (D Hold)
Indiana - 48% Ritz, 47% Pence (D+1)
Missouri - 50% Brunner, 47% Koster (R+1)
Montana - 49% Bullock, 47% Brown (D Hold)
New Hampshire - 51% Pappas, 46% Sanborn (D Hold)
North Carolina - 49% Cooper, 47% McCrory (D+1)
North Dakota - 61% Stenejehm, 32% Taylor (R Hold)
Oregon - 52% Brown, 45% Richardson (D Hold)
Utah - 63% Herbert, 34% McAdams (R Hold)
Vermont - 50% Scott, 42% Dunne (R+1)
Washington - 54% Inslee, 46% Hill (D Hold)
West Virginia - 55% Cole, 42% Justice (R+1)

Even as Hillary won a significant victory, Senate and Gubernatorial races proved her carrying ability to be worse than Obama and the talent pool in the Party significantly reduced. Many Republican seats expected to fall in a big Hillary victory did not, especially in Hillary victories like Pennsylvania, Iowa, Ohio, and North Carolina, where Republicans won Senate seats by large margins. This would be a continual issue in the Hillary Clinton Presidency, who already seemed distant to Democratic leaders thanks to her general assurance to the White House in 2016.

[badgate]

Ducey from AZ?

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Ducey from AZ?

That's my thought as well.

I don't think that I've ever seen a timeline with Ducey. This should be interesting.

[Maxwell]

Ducey from AZ?

That's my thought as well.

I don't think that I've ever seen a timeline with Ducey. This should be interesting.

Yessir, Doug Ducey, Governor of Arizona.

[Thunderbird is the word]

I was thinking the Fox News Ducey.

[JonathanSwift]

Intriguing. Keep it up.

[DKrol]

I was thinking the Fox News Ducey.

That's Doocey, I believe.

[Maxwell]

Good catch, thanks.

[Maxwell]

2016 Congressional Pick-Ups, Primaries, and Retirements
Arizona's 1st - State Rep. Steve Smith (R) [R+1]
California's 17th - Former Ass. Sec. Ro Khanna (D) [Primary]
California's 24th - Assemblyman Katcho Achadjian (R) [R+1]
California's 25th - Lieutenant Lou Vince (D) [D+1]
Colorado's 5th - Air Force General Bentley Rayburn (R) [Primary]
Colorado's 6th - State Senator Morgan Carroll (D) [D+1]
Florida's 1st - State Senator Greg Evers (R) [Retirement]
Florida's 2nd - Former Director at Florida Chamber of Commerce Ron Sachs (R) [R+1]
Florida's 4th - State Senator Aaron Bean (R) [Retirement]
Florida's 6th - Former Congresswoman Sandy Adams (R) [Retirement]
Florida's 9th - Chief of Orlando Police Val Demings (D) [Retirement]
Florida's 13th - Former Governor Charlie Crist (D) [D+1]
Florida's 18th - Former Dem. Chair Priscilla Taylor (D) [Retirement]
Illinois' 8th - Laboratory President Raja Krishnamoorthi (D) [Retirement]
Indiana's 3rd - Former Wisconsin State Senator Pam Galloway (R) [Retirement]
Indiana's 9th - State Senator Rodric Bray (R) [Retirement]
Iowa's 1st - Cedar Rapids City Councilor Monica Vernon (D) [D+1]
Kansas' 1st - Businessman Alan LaPolice (R) [Primary]
Kentucky's 4th - State Senator Damon Thayer (R) [Retirement]
Kentucky's 6th - Former Attorney General Ben Chandler (D) [D+1]
Michigan's 1st - Michigan Dem. Chairman Lon Johnson (D) [D+1]
Michigan's 10th - State Senator Alan Sanborn (R) [Retirement]
Nebraska's 2nd - Brigadier General Don Bacon (R) [R+1]
Nevada's 4th - State Senator Ruben Kiheun (D) [D+1]
New Hampshire's 1st - Businessman Dan Innis (R) [Primary]
New Hampshire's 2nd - State Senator David Pierce (D) [Retirement]
New York's 19th - State Assemblywoman Didi Barrett (D) [D+1]
New York's 25th - Monroe County D.A. Sandra Doorley (D) [Retirement]
Pennslyvania's 8th - State Rep. Steve Santarsiero (D) [D+1]
Tennessee's 2nd - Assemblyman Steve Southerland (R) [Retirement]
Texas' 23rd - Former Congressman Pete Gallego (D) [D+1]

Among the healthy amount of Congressional retirements, Democratic gains in 2016 were, like the ones in the Senate and Governorships, unimpressive. Democrats picked up 10 seats, but Republicans picked up 4, for a net gain of only 6. Republicans were dealt a draw in Florida, where they picked up Florida's 2nd with ease after the retirement of Gwen Graham, but lost an epic battle between St. Pete Mayor Rick Baker and Former Governor Charlie Crist, where Crist won by 2 despite Clinton carrying the district by 15. The biggest shock of the night was the 153 vote win for 64 year old Republican State Assemblyman Katcho Achadjian, who won a heavily Clinton district thanks to bitterness among the Democrats about their nominee, Helene Schneider, who engaged an all out ad war with Salud Carbajal over the seat.

Still, there were highlights to the night. Morgan Carroll managed to defeat Republican rising star Mike Coffman in the Colorado seat. Monica Vernon and Ruben Kiheun knocked out very vulnerable incumbents with 10+ point margins, and the biggest surprise for the Democrats was the return of Former Attorney General Ben Chandler to his old congressional seat, since Congressman Andy Barr retired and was replaced on the Republican side of the ballot by Farmer Harvey Willis (fictionial) who said Todd Akin was right, Donald Trump is right, and every woman who has an abortion should be given the death penalty. Still some major disappointments - Carlos Curbelo, Bruce Poliquin, John Katko, and several other vulnerable Republicans perpetuated a moderate image onto the voters and managed to score surprisingly strong victories.

[WVdemocrat]

I was thinking the Fox News Ducey.

[JonathanSwift]

Quick question: who does Martinez appoint to replace Vice President Heinrich in the Senate?

[Maxwell]

Quick question: who does Martinez appoint to replace Vice President Heinrich in the Senate?

She appoints her Lieutenant Governor John Sanchez (R), who, unless 2018 is a MASSIVE GOP wave, is basically DOA.

[JonathanSwift]

Quick question: who does Martinez appoint to replace Vice President Heinrich in the Senate?

She appoints her Lieutenant Governor John Sanchez (R), who, unless 2018 is a MASSIVE GOP wave, is basically DOA.

Okay. Thanks.

[Maxwell]

Prologue, Part 3

The first year of the Hillary Presidency felt like a continuation of Obama's last couple of years: moderate successes for the administration, at no fault of her own. In 2016, more states legalized marijuana, and it just keeps moving toward that direction rather than backwards. Hillary proposes agenda to tackle Infrastructure, but the major bill gets held up in Congress with Republicans asking for spending cuts to balance the budget. With such a narrow Congressional lead, Republican moderates like Pat Toomey and Rob Portman are being pushed hard to support the bill, but so far few are budging, and on some specifics, moderate Democrats like Joe Donnelly and Heidi Heitkamp are trying to protect their spots by being apathetic about the bill to promote minor changes and pork for their states. The amended version of the bill with weakened rail funding and spending cuts to domestic programs eventually passes with few Republican votes (the two mentioned plus John McCain, Susan Collins, and Charles Boustany). The budget fights of the Obama administration still continue, with the deficit remaining at around $500 Billion for the year.

On foreign affairs, Hillary is again a perfect follow-up of the Obama administration, signing an agreement with Cuba for the release of Americans still held their in exchange for trade, and dealing with potential Iran proliferation. The President's relationship with Iran leaves something to be desired: Clinton has taken a more strong stand with Israel than Obama did, and as a result Iran has felt a great deal of distance toward the President. This makes the Middle East situation forever complicated. ISIS continues to taunt American presecence there, but is only met with air bombings rather than ground troops, much to displeasure of American and Israeli hawks. Clinton maintains mid 40s approval rating throughout the year, with some Democrats angered by her lack of fight, and most Republicans angered by her continuation of the Obama policies.

This continued trend toward the left and right extremes causes Virginia and New Jersey to switch directions in 2017. Virginia's legislature holds Republican as Republicans win two out of the three major statewide offices - Mark Obenshain defeats Ralph Northam in a close call that was expected to be a narrow Northam victory, and Pete Snyder knocks out Aneesh Chopra in a high single digit win, after Chopra runs a mediocre, lifeless campaign. Attorney General Mark Herring, however, retains his office by double digits thanks to his strong courting of the base areas in Virginia and running against Former Congressman Eric Cantor, a widely disliked figure in the state.

Virginia Gubernatorial Election (R+1):
Former State Senator Mark Obenshain (R) - 49%
Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam (D) - 47%

New Jersey, after 8 years of Chris Christie, has had enough of Republicans. Even as Republicans nominated moderate and popular Former Congressman Jon Runyan, he fell pretty easily to Congressman Frank Pallone, who ran with a united Democratic Party to take the Governorship. Both ran strong campaigns but the tide was far too large for Runyan to deal with, running with a Republican Governor who had a 21% approval rating in the state, and a Lieutenant Governor of the same Party who got indicted on corruption charges. Democrats very largely increased their margins in the state legislature.

New Jersey Gubernatorial Election (D+1):
Congressman Frank Pallone (D) - 51%
Former Congressman Jon Runyan (R) - 43%

[Maxwell]

Prologue, Part 4 - Cracks in the Armour

After a mild first year in office, the wheels already began to fall off of Hillary's administration in 2018. Increasing pressure on the Clinton administration to act on Income Inequality ends up in her new budget, with a large tax increase back to the Bill Clinton rates in the 1990s and a plan to fight poverty. It's a measure considered too piecemeal by Democratic liberals, but still too radical for conservatives. Republican moderates urge the President to split the bills into two pieces to allow the poverty plan through, but this plan is sunk by staffers of Senator Ted Cruz leaking conversations between the two factions. The bill in question, thanks to a poor defense by the Clinton administration to be anything other than a "welfare" bill and a "tax hike", sinks in Congress. Similar programs promoted by the administration sinks, to the point by the Summer the President gives in the same way President Obama did, and made expanded Obamacare via the Executive Order, much to the chastising of Republicans.

But something much more odious haunts the Clinton administration. Several articles critique the President's use of patronage in her appointments, where most of her top cabinet members are top donors. Many had hoped her liberal rhetoric would mean she would push liberal causes actively, or at least have lots of liberal advisors. In reality, her world was more balanced with voices from Goldman Sachs and Wall Street. And then with the push for income inequality legislation, it became clearer for folks - President Clinton purposefully tanked the legislation. When one of her top staffers resigned and leaked the idea that she wasn't serious about the legislation, her approvals sunk to 35%, which allowed for the ensuing Republican wave.

[tmthforu94]

Excited to see what happens!

[Senator Cris]

Excited to see what happens!

[Maxwell]

Notable 2018 Senate Elections

Arizona - Kelli Ward almost edged out Senator John McCain, but against the more conservative Flake she came up desperately short. The primary was the real contest in this red state - Former Gubernatorial candidate Fred Duval ran against Flake as a last resort for Democrats, and though he acquit himself rather well, Flake swept easily in one of few seats seen as a potential Democratic Pick-Up. R Hold.

Senator Jeff Flake (R) - 58%
Gubernatorial Candidate Fred DuVal (D) - 39%

Florida - Former Congresswoman Gwen Graham surprised most observers by jumping into the Senate race instead of the Governor race. It would be a decision she may regret now - Congressman Carlos Curbelo ran as a Republican moderate with wide hispanic appeal, while Graham attempted to reach white conservatives and moderates. Graham had some success - the map in Florida looked like one of Jeb Bush’s election wins, but Curbelo managed to continue his sharp rise in the Republican party by beating the strong contender Graham, ending her career for good. R+1.

Congressman Carlos Curbelo (R) - 50%
Fmr. Congresswoman Gwen Graham (D) - 47%

Indiana - Accidental Senator Joe Donnelly ran an aggressive campaign for his seat, but proved to be no match for Former Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard, who made it out of a competitive primary with Former Congressman Marlin Stutzman and State Senator Mike Delph. R+1

Former Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard (R) - 55%
Senator Joe Donnelly (D) - 43%

Maine - Former Governor Paul LePage, who was indicted in 2016 for corruption involving fincancially screwing political opponents but was cleared of wrongdoing in late 2017, ran for Senate against Independent Senator Angus King. Though King had angered Democrats on some votes, the Party once again ran behind the Senator. King had a popular, moderate reputation in the state, and LePage, though he did better than most expected, fell far short with his populist conservative campaign. I Hold.

Senator Angus King (I) - 57%
Governor Paul LePage (R) - 37%

Michigan - Senator Debbie Stabenow was considered rather safe, and Lieutenant Governor Brian Calley was pushed into this race as wave insurance thanks to Bill Schuette's aggressive campaigning for Governor. Calley polled behind double digits most of the campaign, but thanks to the wave, he came within 7 points of a Senate seat. A little close to call, but Stabenow prevailed. D Hold.

Senator Debbie Stabenow (D) - 52%
Lieutenant Governor Brian Calley (R) - 45%

Minnesota - Now I'm not exactly sure what happened here. D Hold.

Senator Amy Klobuchar (D) - 49%
State Senator David Hann (R) - 47%

Missouri - Accidental Senator #2 Claire McCaskill finally saw her luck run out against State Senator Bob Dixon, not exactly the candidate the GOP establishment wanted. R+1

State Senator Bob Dixon (R) - 53%
Senator Claire McCaskill (D) - 44%

Montana - Congressman Ryan Zinke continues the tradition of Montana Congressmen jumping to higher office by challenging Senator Jon Tester. Zinke ran a mediocre, gaffe-filled campaign, Tester ran the best campaign of the cycle, but the level of the wave in a deep Republican state caused Tester to lose despite his efforts. Democratic recruiters still regard Tester as a potential candidate for Montana office despite his loss. R+1.

Congressman Ryan Zinke (R) - 49%
Senator Jon Tester (D) - 48%

Nevada - Nevada was another state Democrats thought they had a shot at recouping their losses, but no such luck. Dean Heller proved to be a popular Senator for the state, and his opponent, Former State Treasurer Kate Marshall, is becoming closer and closer to a perennial also-ran in the state, who despite running an energetic campaign, went no where thanks to a certain aimlessness that haunted the Democratic Party overall around this time. R Hold.

Senator Dean Heller (R) - 56%
Former State Treasurer Kate Marshall (D) - 39%

New Jersey - Governor Frank Pallone followed the tradition of unpopular New Jersey Governors, and his performance along with continued corruption charges being levied on Senator Bob Menedez finally sunk the U.S. Senator in a re-match against State Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean. Polls showed Menendez so far underground at one point that Democratic groups attempted to withdraw money from his campaign, but around September Menendez began coming back thanks to a coming home effect, and almost won another re-election, but his unpopularity proved too much to bare. R+1

Minority Leader Tom Kean (R) - 49%
Senator Bob Menendez (D) - 48%

New Mexico - The lone highlight of the night on the Senate side was the defeat of Interim Senator John Sanchez. It was no secret Sanchez was D.O.A. - he had little campaign cash, has been perceived as something of a weak candidate by GOP establishment, and narrowly defeated a challenge from the middle against Farmer Don Wilkins (fictional). Attorney General Hector Balderas was a shoe-in from the beginning, and though his margin was fairly narrow, it was a gap similar to that of Heinrich's own Senate race. D+1

Attorney General Hector Balderas (D) - 51%
Senator John Sanchez (R)  - 45%

North Dakota - Another Democrat swamped by the wave. Senator Heidi Heitkamp ran a great campaign, but got defeated narrowly by Vicky Steiner, a weak recruit. R+1

State Rep. Vicky Steiner (R) - 51%
Senator Heidi Heitkamp (D) - 49%

Ohio - Senator Sherrod Brown was a contentious force in Ohio politics, running and voting as a left-winger in a moderate state. Congressman Steve Stivers, easily defeating State Auditor Dave Yost and Former State Representative Matt Lynch, emerged as a strong contender to the Incumbent. Brown faced the same fate as his predecessor. R+1

Congressman Steve Stivers (R) - 52%
Senator Sherrod Brown (D) - 47%

Pennsylvania - One of few Republican prospects that didn't fall through, Former Congressman Mike Fitzpatrick and Senator Bob Casey had a battle to the middle, with Casey edging Fitzpatrick thanks to his conservative roots and Casey's still beloved name amongst Pennsylvania's elderly (and also because it's probably suspected to be Casey's last term as Senator). D Hold.

Senator Bob Casey (D) - 50%
Former Congressman Mike Fitzpatrick (R) - 48%

Virginia - Senator Tim Kaine, after being passed over for Vice President, had a quiet tenure as U.S. Senator, mostly voting party line but breaking line when necessary. He faced a stiff challenge from Congressman Robert Hurt, but Hurt foolishly attempted to break the Virginia beach and D.C. Suburbs areas, while Kaine focused on amping up his base. D Hold.

Senator Tim Kaine (D) - 51%
Congressman Robert Hurt (R) - 47%

Washington - The final swan song of Congressman David Reichert made for an interesting race in Washington, but Democrats came home as expected. D Hold

Senator Maria Cantwell (D) - 53%
Congressman David Reichert (R) - 47%

West Virginia - Senator Joe Manchin thanks his lucky stars that Republicans fumbled the ball so hard and nominated Congressman Alex Mooney, who ran the most inept campaign all cycle. D Hold.

Senator Joe Manchin (D) - 52%
Congressman Alex Mooney (R) - 48%

Wisconsin - The closest race of the cycle was almost by accident. Former Senator Ron Johnson wasn't expected to run, but cleared the field thanks to his massive fundraising apparatus still existing. Senator Tammy Baldwin originally thanked her lucky stars for Johnson, but the wave proved even too much for her, as Johnson won by a couple thousand votes. R+1

Former Senator Ron Johnson (R) - 49.7%
Senator Tammy Baldwin (D) - 49.3%

Senate Composition - 58 - 42

Replaced Senators of the Same Party:
Vermont - Martin LaLonde (D)
Utah - Jason Chaffetz (R)
Tennessee - Bill Haslam (R)

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Heitkamp did pretty well. Kinda surprised to see Brown fall, but Ohio does follow the general national feeling.

Edit: Did Clinton sweep the primaries?

[Maxwell]

Heitkamp did pretty well. Kinda surprised to see Brown fall, but Ohio does follow the general national feeling.

Edit: Did Clinton sweep the primaries?

Bernie won New Hampshire and a couple other Northeast primaries (and Minnesota), but the democrats quickly coalesced around Hillary once it became a possibility that Bernie could actually win the nomination.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Heitkamp did pretty well. Kinda surprised to see Brown fall, but Ohio does follow the general national feeling.

Edit: Did Clinton sweep the primaries?

Bernie won New Hampshire and a couple other Northeast primaries (and Minnesota), but the democrats quickly coalesced around Hillary once it became a possibility that Bernie could actually win the nomination.

Sounds plausible. I'd imagine that he won Vermont and Maine (maybe Massachusetts).

[Maxwell]

Notable 2018 Gubernatorial Elections

Alaska - Republicans didn't see Bill Walker's Governorship as a major threat to them, seeing as he signed a large portion of their bills, and didn't feel they could compete with a 65%+ Approval Governor. They nominated their weakest candidate, and Walker won easily. I Hold.

Governor Bill Walker (I) - 56%
Former Lieutenant Governor Mead Treadwell (R) - 42%

Arizona - Democrats, despite facing a controversial conservative Governor with mediocre approval ratings, didn't have much luck recruiting, as Doug Ducey sailed to re-election. D Hold.

Governor Doug Ducey (R) - 57%
Former Maricopa County Supervisor Mary Rose Wilcox (D) - 39%

California - Governor Jerry Brown's handling of the drought in his state left him with low 40% approval ratings, and Republicans with a potential pick-ups in a wave. Neel Kashkari, the nominee from 2014, ran again, and Republicans decided to give him another chance. Gavin Newsom and Janice Hahn faced off for the second spot, with Newsom trouncing Hahn despite hype that Hahn could overtake the moderate Newsom. Newsom and Kashkari didn't entirely disagree on that much, and this bothered California voters, resulting in low turnout. Nevertheless, Newsom held on thanks to the Democratic Party turnout machine. D Hold.

Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom (D) - 52%
Former Assistant Treasury Secretary Neel Kashkari (R) - 48%

Colorado - Repubican Favorite Walker Stapleton faced off against Democrat rabble rouser Andrew Romanoff in a margin of error election. Stapleton benefited from the wave and a noticable weariness from Governor Hickenlooper. R+1

State Treasurer Walker Stapleton (R) - 51%
Former Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D) - 47%

Connecticut - Despite controversy, Connecticut didn't quite hate Dannel Malloy. But Republicans were eager to pick up the Governors seat after 8 years in complete exile. Tom Foley attempted another run for Governor, but he was wiped out 60-40 by Trumbill Selectman Tim Herbst. Herbst ran an energetic campaign, and though some Republicans felt sick about Herbst's combativeness, Bridgeport Mayor Bill Finch didn't do much to convince voters he would be different from Malloy. R+1.

Trumbill Selectman Tim Herbst (R) - 52%
Bridgeport Mayor Bill Finch (D) - 46%

Florida - Graham made a mistake jumping into the Senate race. While Curbelo ran a graceful campaign, Adam Putnam underwhelmed most Republican advisors expectations. Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn was the Democratic nominee, and though he performed adequately, kept the divide that allowed Republicans like Rick Scott to win rather than break that divide once and for all. Despite similar margins, the map between Curbelo-Graham and Putnam-Buckhorn was actually fairly different and interesting. R Hold.

Agricultural Comissioner Adam Putnam (R) - 49%
Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn (D) - 47%

Georgia - Closer than Republicans would've liked, Brian Kemp wasn't in real danger against State Rep. Scott Holcomb, always polling ahead by high single digits. R Hold.

Secretary of State Brian Kemp (R) - 53%
State Representative Scott Holcomb (D) - 45%

Maine - Just when it looked like Maine would be a for sure pick-up for Democrats, Senator Susan Collins entered the race for Governor, clearing the field for both parties, with the exception of Attorney Janet Mills. Mills performed ably, but Collins was never in danger. R Hold.

Senator Susan Collins (R) - 54%
Attorney General Janet T. Mills (D) - 42%

Michigan - A rare highlight for Democrats, Mark Hackel edged Gretchen Whitmer in the Democratic Primary, and Bill Schuette scared off other Republican candidates. Schuette had a strong lead most of the campaign, but Hackel scored a major upset thanks to tire of Republican rule and Schuette's bad campaign. D+1

Macomb County Executive Mark Hackel (D) - 51%
Attorney General Bill Schuette (R) - 47%

Nevada - Lieutenant Governor Mark Hutchison and Former Secretary of State Ross Miller had a bombastic, aggressive campaign. Hutchison, known for his short fuse, got into a shouting match in the debates. After his aggressive behavior, many thought Miller would narrowly take the Governorship. But Nevada is a state that swings hard in waves, and Hutchison won by double digits thanks to Senator Dean Heller's coat tails. R Hold.

Lieutenant Governor Mark Hutchison (R) - 53%
Former Secretary of State Ross Miller (D) - 43%

To Be Continued...

[mencken]

Very interesting.

[Maxwell]

More Notable 2018 Gubernatorial Elections

New Mexico - Republicans didn't even expect to hold this one. All serious potential candidates bailed on this race, and Congresswoman Michele Grisham looked like the Governor-elect, when 32 year Roman Castillo, an Attorney from Logan, ran an old fashion retail campaign and upset the Congresswoman by 128 votes. Castillo shook hands, kissed babies, and most importantly, registered voters (managing to win the State Senate for the first time in decades), closing the gap between Democrats and Republicans in the state. Castillo instantly becomes a rising star in the Republican Party, and is mentioned as a future Presidential candidate, should he win re-election. R Hold.

Attorney Roman Castillo (R) - 49.8%
Congresswoman Michele Lujan Grisham (D) - 49.7%

Ohio - Democrats hoped to compete here for re-districting, but things didn't exactly go that way. State Treasurer Josh Mandel wanted a comeback, but was shut out nearly 2-1 by Secretary of State Jon Husted, considered the more electable candidate. Husted faced Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley, a good enough candidate, but unable to fight both the wave and the strength of the Ohio Republican machine. R Hold.

Secretary of State Jon Husted (R) - 56%
Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley (D) - 42%

Illinois - Governor Bruce Rauner had a difficult decision to make - run for re-election, and face a potential permanent black mark on his future career, or drop out, and become a target when he, inevitably, runs for President. Rauner chose the former, and fought a margin of error battle with State Senator Kwame Raoul. Raoul ran the margins with African Americans, but faced difficulties breaking out in the non-Chicago areas of Illinois and even with hispanics and whites within Chicago. Rauner used the map to his advantage, and appealed to wealthy social liberals in the suburbs while boosting his margins outside of Chicagoland. Despite a last poll putting Raoul ahead by 1, Rauner prevailed by a mandate, making his Presidential campaign even more inevitable. R Hold.

Governor Bruce Rauner (R) - 52%
State Senator Kwame Raoul (D) - 44%

Iowa - Agriculture Commissioner Bill Northey was the Iowa Republican dream candidate, and he steamrolled Former State Senator Tyler Olson.

Agriculture Commissioner Bill Northey (R) - 58%
Former State Senator Tyler Olson (D) - 42%

Maryland - The nation mourned as Governor Larry Hogan died of cancer on June 5th, 2017. Interim Governor Boyd Rutherford, to honor Larry Hogan, is running for a full term as Governor, even as his campaign has been anemic at best. Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamentez edged out more well known candidates like Former Labor Secretary Tom Perez and Attorney General Brian Frosh thanks to a fresh, energetic campaign promising new, liberal leadership for Maryland. A highlight in a really bad night for Democrats. D+1.

Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamentez (D) - 53%
Governor Boyd Rutherford (R) - 45%

Nebraska - Democrats saw oppurtunity when Pete Ricketts approvals hit the skids after a budget nightmare in Nebraska. Nevertheless they faced their usual problem in the state - a lack of a bench. Former Congressman Brad Ashford was much too old, a few of the state Senators were much too young and inexperience. They went back to the well to nominate Chuck Hassebrook, the nominee from 2014. Hassebrook, despite some Democrats rolling their eyes at his candidacy, tied Ricketts for much of the campaign, campaigning particularly on education which Ricketts cut by millions. But Ricketts had a significant cash advantage, and bulldozed his way to another victory.

Governor Pete Ricketts (R) - 53%
Former Board of Regents Member Chuck Hassebrook (D) - 44%

Wisconsin - Mary Burke scored a major comeback in the Governors race, thanks to pisspoor approvals for Governor Scott Walker and State Senator Frank Lassee’s inept campaign. D+1

Madison School Board Member Mary Burke (D) - 51%
State Senator Frank Lassee (R) - 47%

New Hampshire.- Governor Pappas proved to be ineffective, but most top Republicans opted out of the race thanks to the incumbent effect. The Republican nominee was, again, Former State Senator Andy Sanborn, whose passive aggressive campaign sunk him in 2016 despite outspending Pappas significantly. Sanborn sought to soften his image - doing town halls, moving to the center on many issues (even pot), and moving his temperament in the right direction. Governor Pappas runs ahead of the general trend in New Hampshire, but becomes one of the youngest ex-Governors in history.

Former State Senator Andy Sanborn (R) - 51%
Governor Chris Pappas (D) - 45%

Minnesota - Governor Mark Dayton ends his tenure as he spent most of it, with middling approvals. Despite Minesota’s strong fundamentals as a state, Dayton doesn’t earn much credit for it. Republicans back Businessman Mike McFadden, who is desperate for a comeback, and Democrats recruit Attorney General Lori Swanson. Swanson runs much of the campaign as the frontrunner, but McFadden, thanks to a strong staff and surprising campaign apparatus, closes the gap slowly. After two terms of Dayton, Minnesotans move in the other direction. R+1.

Businessman Mike McFadden (R) - 49%
Attorney General Lori Swanson (D) - 48%

New York - Governor Cuomo ran in a Democratic Party that almost treated him like just another candidate. New York City Mayor Bill DeBlasio, Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli, and Congressman Hakeem Jeffries all ran in the primary against the moderately unpopular Cuomo. Though Cuomo never polled far above 32% in the Democratic Primary, he still generally was in the lead or within the margin of error of the lead thanks to a divisive battle between the three liberal challengers. Cuomo ended up defeating DiNapoli 36-28, with DeBlasio and Jeffries trailing behind. Republicans went with Congressman Chris Gibson, a real challenger. Gibson and Cuomo was anticipated to be close, but Cuomo stockpiled millions to fight this. Despite a nationwide wave, Cuomo prevailed.

Governor Andrew Cuomo (D) - 52%
Former Congressman Chris Gibson (R) - 44%

Pennsylvania - Governor Tom Wolf faced a tough GOP legislature, and was ready for a tough GOP challenge. Former Lieutenant Governor Jim Cawley hailed as a rising star, but reminded voters too much of Govenor Corbett, a fact Wolf made obvious at every stump speech. Cawley fumbled the first few debates, but quickly recovered. The Republican wave across the country seemed to miss Pennsylvania, as Wolf held on to his job (by a larger margin than the Senator, btw). D Hold.

Governor Tom Wolf (D) - 52%
Former Lieutenant Governor Jim Cawley (R) - 48%

[Maxwell]

Aftermath of 2018 - Some Republicans eager, Abbott leads Presidential race

Republicans dominated the Senate, Governor, and Congressional races in a sweeping way in 2018. Building further on victories scored in 2010 and 2014, the GOP looks to control re-districting in a big way for the next decade and control Congress for a prolonged amount of time. President Clinton will have no choice but to balance her ideas with them, or become a completely voiceless President.

Despite those victories across the country, strategist in the GOP worry that they will never win another Presidential election again. As the electorate becomes more divided, a more conservative Republican is required to win the nomination, but then that nominee is too conservative to win a General election. The dividing lines in the party are moving rightward and the situation seems untenable. And worse yet, the establishment GOP has never been more divided - Senator Cory Gardner, leading amongst GOP leadership and those hoping his support of immigration reform will allow him to win, Senator Rob Portman, leading amongst GOP donors and establishment money men who is attempting to use his now moderated social views to translate to younger voters, and Governor Bruce Rauner, a wild card whose unpredictable views are rapidly trending rightward as the Presidential cycle begins and is prepared to push millions upon millions of his won dollars into the race.  All three are butting heads amongst donors for secret superiority in the Establishment primaries. (Outsider Former Senator Rand Paul is also running for redemption, and though on better footing than Senator Ted Cruz, so far seems like a minor factor in the GOP primary seeing as the hawks are continually aggressing Hillary more and more.)

And Conservatives have never felt so for sure. Despite Governor Doug Ducey, whose numbers are strong due to his adamant opposition to immigration reform, and Senator Ted Cruz, seeking redemption for his snub at the 2016 Convention, running, Conservatives are fairly in sync with obvious frontrunner Governor Greg Abbott. Abbott has it all, a very very conservative record, a 2-to-1 win for re-election in a state Democrats are obviously targeting for future races, Leader of the RGA as Republicans actually gain Governorships even with most of their seats being up, and the fact that Abbott has raised nearly $70 million from his Super PACs in anticipation for his own run for President. Voices in Texas echo the fact that Abbott may not be ready for prime time, but Abbott's early fight has proven otherwise.

Republican Primary Poll as of 11/5/2018
Greg Abbott - 23%
Cory Gardner - 14%
Rand Paul - 12%
Doug Ducey - 8%
Rob Portman - 6%
Ted Cruz - 5%
Bruce Rauner - 4%
John Thune - 2%
Nikki Haley - 2%
Rick Santorum - 1%
Other - 12%
Undecided - 11%

Notable Congressional Races
CA-7 - Bill Berryhill R Pick-up
CA-16 - Johnny Tacherra R Pick-up
CA-24 - Helene Schneider D Pick-up
CA-25 - Tony Strickland R Pick-up
CA-31 - Paul Chabot R Pick-up
CT-4 - Kevin Kelly R Pick-up
FL-18 - Joe Negron R Pick-up
FL-22 - Bill Hager R Pick-up
FL-26 - Annette Taddeo D Pick-up
IL-3 - Chris Nybo R Pick-up
IA-1 - Pat Shey R Pick-up
KY-6 - Stephen West R Pick-up
MD-6 - Neil Parrott R Pick-up
MA-9 - Vinny DeMacedo R Pick-up
MI-1 - Jason Allen R Pick-up
MN-7 - Torrey Westrom R Pick-up
MO-5 - Jacob Turk R Pick-up
MT-ALL - Brett Sundlund R Hold
NH-2 - Joe Kenny R Pick-up
OR-5 - Scott Bruun R Pick-up
PA-8 - Chuck McIllihney R Pick-up
TX-23 - Will Hurd R Pick-up
WA-1 - Elizabeth Scott R Pick-up
WA-8 - Mark Miloscia   R Hold