Election 2020 - Ducey V. Clinton V. Sanders

[tmthforu94]

Out of curiosity, how did the Kansas Governors race go?

[Maxwell]

Out of curiosity, how did the Kansas Governors race go?

Brownback leaves office unpopular, but Lynn Jenkins wins fairly easily against aging State Senator Pat Pettey.

Lieutenant Governor Jeff Colyer won the race to take her seat (not sure whether it was carpetbagging or not).

[tmthforu94]

Out of curiosity, how did the Kansas Governors race go?

Brownback leaves office unpopular, but Lynn Jenkins wins fairly easily against aging State Senator Pat Pettey.

Good choice!

[Maxwell]

Events of 2019, Part 1



National GOP Primary Poll (March 2019)
32% Gov. Abbott
12% Sen. Gardner
11% Fmr. Sen. Paul
7% Gov. Ducey
4% Sen. Portman
4% Sen. Cruz
3% Gov. Rauner
1% Sen. Thune
1% Fmr. Gov. Haley
1% Sen. Santorum
0% Fmr. Gov. Bentley

January
- President Clinton gives her third state of the union, calling for unity to fix the nations problems. Her speech is unusually vague for a President, and is roundly panned. Her first policy agenda for the year, however, is a hike in the minimum wage. Clinton is proposing a minimum wage of $15/hr, with the help of Democrats hoping to poke a hole in the confident Republicans. Clinton enters the second half of her first term with 38% approval rating, but the minimum wage issues ranks in at an 82% or higher favorable rating from the public. Some Republicans cede ground on the issue, but will that be enough?

- The first candidate to announce an exploratory committee is... Former Alabama Governor Robert Bentley? Governor Bentley made very little mark on Alabama political culture, with his chosen successor winning fourth place in the primary (to the winner Bradley Byrne, a relative moderate). Bentley runs as a culture warrior and a fiscal conservative, touting his record in Alabama. Bentley has never registered beyond 1% in any poll, and is considered the bottom of the bottom tier.

- Governor Greg Abbott stirs controversy when he gives an interview talking up roundly debunked conspiracy theories with a radio talk show host in Iowa, including a UN agreement to put people into hobbit homes, the Federal Government wanting to halt the progress of his state Texas, and criticizing Hillary's push for immigration reform as "a crock to widen the Democratic base". This does some damage to his national favorables, making him one of the less electable candidates according to national polls, but the media barrage only helps his polling among Republicans.

- House Conservatives again threaten John Boehner with a challenge from Dave Brat. Boehner prevails rather easily, and Brat is stripped of his Chairmanships.

February
- Governor Bruce Rauner, struggling to find an audience, hops right on abortion, officially flipping to Pro-Life. He claims a late life conversion after feeling a womans stomach. Audiences generally see through it, but nevertheless Rauner jumps into Iowa and New Hampshire hoping to see friends, including Governor Andy Sanborn, who was helped significantly by Rauner's appearances in the state (and donations by Rauner to Sanborn's Super PAC's, but hush hush). This goes with a theme of the moderate faction of the Republican candidates moving to the right - Cory Gardner endorsing a balanced budget amendment and attempting to push it through a favorable congress, and Rob Portman proposing an end to sanctuary cities. In fact, the only one staying their ground on the issues is Rand Paul, going around the country and criticizing President Clinton's inability to move on criminal justice issues, an issue gaining traction with GOP voters but not as much around GOP politicians.

- President Hillary Clinton is planning to run for re-election, even as Democrats are cautious about their chances. Latest polls show, despite low approvals, the latest PPP poll shows President Clinton leads most Republicans (46-40 against Abbott, 45-43 against Gardner, 45-43 against Portman, 48-38 against Cruz, 45-37 against Ducey, 45-38 against Rauner [low name recognition]) but trails one in particular (44-46 against Rand Paul). Most of these numbers are weak, and with most liberal Democrats very frustrated with Clinton, hoping she can receive a challenge from her left. Senator Bernie Sanders, who gave her a good run in 2016, trails her 29-58 in that poll.

- The original minimum wage bill stalls in Congress (Who didn't see this coming), but a group of Republicans called "The Mainstream Crew", hedges their bets and works with the Democrats to reach an agreement. A minimum wage bill that raises it to $10.10 over the course of 5 years and holds it for small businesses passes the house 219-210. The bill faces longer odds in the Senate, though, where Senators are more bitterly partisan and moderates like Gardner and Portman are facing a conservative primary, and thus, will end up voting against it.

March
- On March 22nd, the first candidate to announce is none other than Governor Greg Abbott. Abbott announces more than $100 Million from his Super PAC, immediately cementing him as a frontrunner, even if it means a slight slow down since the reveal of him as a hard right winger. This announcement gives him a big bump, causing him to lead his next up almost 3-1.

- Cruz has an embarrassing moment where he goes to a big event where he is expecting hundreds of people to show up and... ten people. Enthusiasm for Cruz for President hits an all time low, with few listing him as a second choice. It's almost certain that his time in the spotlight, but he continues to fight, criticizing the President a socialist that "does Obama proud".

- The final minimum wage bill finally passes the Senate, passing cloture 60-40, and then the actual vote 51-49, with Pat Toomey, Tom Cotton, Bruce Poliquin (Collins' appointment to the Senate), Tom Kean, John McCain, Greg Ballard, Bill Haslam, and Dean Heller, with Cotton being the last undecided vote in this. Cloture also includes votes from Cory Gardner, Rob Portman, Hal Heiner, which some conservatives perceive as failing the cause. Hillary signs it as one of the major accomplishments of her administration thus far, working in bipartisan fashion to get something done. It's really a minor achievement long past due.

- It's leaked that Rand Paul and Cory Gardner both plan to announce in April, along with President Clinton.

[Maxwell]

Events of 2019, Part 2



National GOP Primary (6/1/2019)
22% Abbott
16% Gardner
10% Paul
10% Ducey
6% Portman
5% Rauner
4% Cruz
2% Thune
2% Haley
1% Gillespie
1% Santorum
0% Bentley

April
- Senator Cory Gardner announces his candidacy in the first week of April, attempting in his announcement to learn from the mistakes of Jeb Bush. He hedges to the right, but only hedges: he still supports comprehensive immigration reform and expansion of birth control options. The Favorite of the Establishment, he still faces the donor primary, where Gardner is not doing as well as his predecessors (thanks to a fight from Portman and Rauner).

- Former Senator Rand Paul announces his candidacy the week afterward. Paul's fundraising has been weak for a second place finisher, but he hopes to grow his grassroots organization. Paul continues to campaign on his issues, but has moved to the left on some social issues, including in favor of pot legalization. Paul's hoping to break through the noise that currently is the silent primary.

- A surprise announcement from Virginia Senate candidate and RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie for President the last day of April. Gillespie is a favorite of George W. and Jeb Bush, who hope to keep their hands in the GOP cookie jar, especially after Jeb's loss in 2016. Gillespie, despite some decent resources, has no real support, and few expect him to break out beyond Politico writers.

- Hillary Clinton announced her candidacy for re-election the same week as Cory Gardner. Clinton lays out an agenda for the future, but more attention is paid to her sharp attacks at the GOP, particularly at the frontrunner Greg Abbott, calling them "extreme", "radical", and "to beholden to the wealthy to lead this country". Clinton's mediocre approval ratings force her into the offense.

- Following the murder of Brandon James (fictional) at the hands of police officers, riots occur in Washington D.C., with looting and pillaging of the city occurring. This event bleeds into May, occurring on April 29th.

May
- Senator Ted Cruz announces his candidacy for President on May 4th. Despite massive fundraising hulls, Cruz didn't quite make the mark in 2016, and since then other Republicans have risen and taken Cruz's thunder, including his own states Governor. Despite a decent hull again (with $20 Million coming from his Super PAC), Cruz is a significant underdog in this race.

- Former Governor Nikki Haley announces her candidacy for President the same day as Cruz. The odds are against her, but Haley doesn't seem to be actually running for President - rather, she seems to be running for a spot on the ticket. And it shows: Haley runs on her diversity and her nuanced stances on the issues.

- Former Senator Rick Santorum announces yet another campaign for President on May 5th. Yawn.

- Former Governor Robert Bentley announces on May 30th in South Carolina. Bentley's exploratory committee was shocking, but since then Bentley has made few waves, and his Super PAC has raised a grand total of... $105,000.

- Former Senator Bernie Sanders announces another Presidential campaign. Sanders frustration with the Clinton administration's ability to deal with a Republican congress and her inability to deal with income inequality. His case his helped by the next post.

- D.C. riots cause Hillary Clinton to enforce strict force to stop the rioting. This causes backlash amongst Democratic base groups, but Republicans insist that Clinton hasn't done nearly enough, citing continued damage in D.C. and threat of the lives of Government officials. Rand Paul gives a speech in Baltimore, Maryland, denouncing militarization and demanding justice for Brandon James.

National Democrat Primary (6/1/2019)
56% Clinton
32% Sanders

[Senator Cris]

Great timeline!
Go Gardner, but we already know who will be the nominee

[DKrol]

How did the 2018 Ma Gov. race go? Two-term Baker?

[Maxwell]

How did the 2018 Ma Gov. race go? Two-term Baker?

Democrats ran a weak recruit, Baker won re-election with 60% of the vote.

[MadmanMotley]

Love this TL! Who's the Senators and Governor in Indiana?

[Maxwell]

Love this TL! Who's the Senators and Governor in Indiana?

Senators:
Todd Young (R)
Greg Ballard (R)

Governor:
Glenda Ritz (D)

[Maxwell]

Events of 2019, Part III



GOP Primary Poll (8/31)
20% Gardner
14% Abbott
14% Ducey
13% Paul
10% Rauner
6% Portman
5% Cruz
2% Thune
2% Haley
1% Gillespie
1% Santorum
1% Bentley

DEM Primary Poll (8/31)
61% Clinton
33% Sanders

June
- Illinois Governor Bruce Rauner announces his candidacy in Des Moines, Iowa on June 3rd. Rauner, after jumping pro-life, is running a staunchly conservative campaign, calling for low taxes, increased force around the globe, and faith and family. Rauner's candidacy represents billionaire dissatisfaction with generally known RNC candidate Cory Gardner, who has been known to take a populist stand against Wall Street every now and then. Rauner's Super PAC haul has topped Abbott and Gardner, immediately drawing attention to Rauner.

- Arizona Governor Doug Ducey announced his candidacy on June 30th. Ducey follows the Cruz model of the true conservative, even as he grandstands far less than Cruz. Ducey has one major issue he stands on - Ducey is a stringent opponent of illegal immigration. Arizona's fiscal management leaves something to be desired - but is far improved from Governor Rauner and Governor Abbott.

- President Clinton rolls out her plan to lower college tuition. She takes the Obama 2012 platform on the issue - taking a forceful tact with colleges. Sanders, meanwhile, rolls out his plan to make college free. Sanders plan garners praise, while Clinton's centrist approach is critiqued for lack of specifics. The only Republican addressing the issue in their primary campaign is Rob Portman, whose plan looks something like Clinton's, but also includes reforms to make colleges more innovative and more effective, promoting strong private colleges.

July
- Senator Rob Portman announces his candidacy July 21st. Portman is the last real candidate to announce - the one moderate in the race running as one. A favorite of the Chamber of Commerce, Portman stands on the issues make him a top tier general election candidate and a bottom tier primary candidate - a social moderate who has moved further and further from modern GOP consensus as his tenure has gone on, supporting the Ex-Im Bank, continuing the Government, and supporting gay marriage.

- 2nd Quarter fundraising: Abbott feels a noticeable drop thanks to the entrance of several candidates. Still: Abbott leads with $23 million for his own campaign, followed by $15 Million for Rauner ($10 Million from individuals, $5 million himself), $14 Million for Gardner, $10 Million for Paul, $6 Million for Cruz, $4 Million for Haley, $3 Million for Gillespie, $1 Million for Thune, $250,000 for Santorum, $23,000 for Bentley. Rauner's haul is considered the most impressive, but Haley's haul is especially strong for her polling position. Another sign of a lack of enthusiasm for Cruz, and once again, a strong performance in 2016 and 2012 shows no returns for Santorum in 2020.

- The Clinton's go negative on Sanders - touting her record on guns and immigration, and criticizing Sanders as too far to the right. Clinton also attempts to paint Sanders as fringe. These attacks are considered not up to snuff, as Sanders continues to gain headway in the polls and pulls to a lead in Iowa and New Hampshire.

August
- First debate - Bentley's absence isn't missed: Santorum narrowly edged him for the last spot on the stage. Besides, there was too much going on: Greg Abbott fell flat on his face on his first debate appearance, stumbling answers on immigration and foreign policy, Bruce Rauner is widely challenged on his massive flip flopping on just about every public issue, and Rob Portman failed to stand out even a little, even as his views placed him as the most moderate candidate in the field. The winners of the night include Doug Ducey, who vocally stood out as the most eloquent conservative on the stage, and Cory Gardner, who gave a strong, detailed vision for the country. After months of difficulty, Gardner rises to the top of the polls thanks to his very strong performance.

- Despite his less than successful debate performance, Rauner's bulk ad buy in Iowa from July proves to be a huge success. Despite a fifth place showing nationally, Rauner now runs laps around the field as the leader in Iowa. Rauner's strong stance in favor of farm subsidies and his recent stretch of rolled up sleeves photo ops. In second, 11 points back, is Greg Abbott. Gardner leads in New Hampshire, with Rauner taking a narrow second place. Rauner's fundraising and organization is roundly praised as innovative in both grassroots and big money tactics, continuing his rise as a contender for the nomination.

- Seeing a lack of effect on policy attacks, Hillary's attacks go personal - Clinton Campaign Staff leak articles that Bernie Sanders wrote that are dismissive of women's intellectual abilities compared to men (released in 70s), and articles written by Sanders dismissing Western powers as "the end all evil of the world." (released in the 80s) Despite some thinking the Clinton attacks were below the belt, they work in the general public, with the President taking a prominent lead in the polls once again.

GOP Iowa Primary
25% Rauner
14% Abbott
13% Ducey
10% Gardner
8% Paul
8% Cruz
4% Santorum
2% Haley
2% Thune
2% Portman
1% Gillespie
1% Bentley

NH GOP Primary
22% Gardner
20% Rauner
13% Paul
10% Abbott
8% Portman
5% Ducey
5% Cruz
3% Haley
2% Gillespie
1% Santorum
1% Thune
0% Bentley

[Maxwell]

Important U.S. and Worldwide Information for 2019 (Non-Election)
- Unemployment rises, beginning in June, as the economic outlook begins to worsen.
- Russia begins making hostile threats to Poland.
- Estimated Budget deficits are expected to rise for the first time since the beginning of President Obama's term.
- Kim Jong-Un is murdered in a coup after it his homosexuality is revealed in September. North Korea is in complete dissary as militant war groups battle for superiority and control of the region. Many urge the United States to jump in and create order in the country.
- Thanks to secret ops orchestrated by the CIA and the military and air strikes, ISIS dominance in Iraq begins to fall apart. But overall Middle Eastern chaos doesn't go down - Iran continues to puff its chest, Saudi Arabia is facing a fiscal crisis, and terrorists in Egypt killed 3 Americans in August.

[Maxwell]

Events of 2019, Part IV



GOP Primary (10/31)
23% Rauner
16% Gardner
14% Ducey
11% Paul
7% Abbott
6% Portman
5% Cruz
2% Thune
2% Haley
1% Gillespie
1% Santorum
0% Bentley

DEM Poll (10/31)
68% Clinton
22% Sanders

September
- The next two Republican debates occur, with similar results: Abbott flatlines as he fumbles answers on just about every subject, Gardner shines as a strong television presence, and Ducey becomes a strong vocal conservative voice. But as the spotlight moves away from Abbott, Rauner hones his debate performances and becomes tactile and aggressive on the stage. The first debate showed Rauner at his worst, gaffee-y, confused, and unable to defend himself. Clearly his debate coaches worked wonders in the last couple of weeks.

- The first Democratic debate occurs at the end of the month, with Clinton attempting to take the high road after months of brutal attacks on Senator Sanders. Sanders wants a confrontation, which Clinton doesn't give him. The debate is largely seen as a draw, though Sanders gave more specifics. However, a draw does no favors for Sanders, as he sees his numbers decline once again against the unpopular President Clinton.

- Despite a strong television presence, Gardner continues to face issues on the donor side. Seeing Rauner as both more conservative and more viable, there seems to be a mass exodus of establishment donors to the Rauner campaign. Gardner, never being quite the donor hog as some other candidates, attempts to do the same level of face time as Rauner. However, Gardner surprises donors when he shows a lack of craveness by standing on immigration. Support is dripping for the promising Senator of Colorado.

- Protests on the border occur after the murder of a family of four by an illegal immigrant. Candidates attempt to put their stamp on it, but one notable candidate who does a good job navigating it without seeming overly political is Governor Doug Ducey, the most anti-immigrant candidate of the field, who gives a solemn address on the issue and makes the other people seem like needy politicos. Ducey's favorables rise strongly in recent polls, but he still faces an uphill battle thanks to his issues with big money being occupied by Ted Cruz (who somehow is still in the race despite constantly failing to grab headlines.)

- The economic slowdown continues, with unemployment rising to 7%. President Clinton demands action on the economy, but action out of the Republican congress seems... slow. It will be a while before we can see if Congress makes any active move on the issue.

October
- Fundraising Numbers - Abbott's belly flop into the race has made his campaign numbers shrink significantly, underraising Ted Cruz and even Nikki Haley (who continues to post significant numbers despite being a nonentity in the race). Rauner laps the field, raising an astounding $35 Million (which is nevertheless dwarfed by Hillary Clinton's $80 Million). Gardner, despite noted troubles in September, comes in at number 2 with $20 Million. Ducey edges Paul and Portman (whose haul is only partial, thanks to a late start) for third, and the rest of the field falls below $10 Million. The most hilarious haul is, once again, Robert Bentley, he raises a meager $50,000. This places Rauner immediately as the frontrunner for the GOP nomination, despite lackluster approvals in Illinois.

- Rob Portman, struggling for relevance in the race despite strong fundraising hauls and decent debate appearances, runs to the right on the budget, proposing the fair tax, and to the right on foreign policy, where he calls an invasion of North Korea to call for order in the region and getting tough with Iran and Terrorists in Egypt. Most candidates agreed to the second half, but thought North Korea needed its own affairs taken care of. Despite the initial headline, most of the candidates co-opt his position, with the exception of Rand Paul of course.

- With Thune's campaign for Majority Leader President going rather poorly, he puts the laser focus on Iowa, where he plans to spend most of remaining funds. His first major Iowa event since this declaration does not go well, as an Iowa voter tries to get into a shouting match with him over corporations.

- Senator Cruz finally gets some attention in this race, but not the right attention. Cruz loudly questions whether Chelsea Clinton is actually Bill's child, attempting to stir up some birther type movement. In the beginning, this helps the candidate somewhat as some love this kind of red meat, but after its made clear that Cruz is being a douche, he settles back into irrelevance.

- An interview with Levi Sanders with Katie Couric reveals Levi's reservations about his father becoming President, particularly because of his relative absence as a father. Bernie rejects this notion, but this is the first sort of thing that sticks with Sanders. As his poll numbers begin to slide, Bernie contemplates his future as a candidate.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Shouldn't the Senate be 59-41 because it would have been 52-48 after 2016 because of the R+1 in NM?

[Maxwell]

Shouldn't the Senate be 59-41 because it would have been 52-48 after 2016 because of the R+1 in NM?

John Sanchez was the Senator, but Hector Balderas actually won the seat in November, so it's 58-42.

[Maxwell]

Skipping the last two months

Ducey upsets Rauner, sweeps Iowa



Iowa Caucus Results
27.9% Ducey
17.8% Rauner
15.5% Paul
12.3% Gardner
7.2% Cruz
5.6% Abbott
5.4% Santorum
2.3% Thune
2.1% Haley
1.4% Portman
0.6% Bentley
0.4% Gillespie
1.5% Others

With Bernie Sanders dropping out of the Democratic race but contemplating an Independent run, Hillary Clinton faces little to no opposition in the Democratic Primaries. This leads attention to be focused on the Republican primary, where Bruce Rauner and Cory Gardner ended up brawling out for the top spot in Iowa. While some attacks went to Doug Ducey, Ducey was, shockingly, ignored in some respect in comparison to the napalm bombs between the two frontrunners. This allowed a major opening for the anti-immigrant conservative - Ducey won Iowa with by a statistically significant margin, setting him up in a favorable map. Rauner's loss here is shocking, as he stockpiled millions of dollars and won major endorsements of many religious leaders despite not previously campaigning as a religious conservative. Gardner fares even worse - as he begins looking like a candidate without a base. Senator Rand Paul also surprises with a strong third place showing, which wasn't expected of Paul after he had faded to the background thanks to poor fundraising.

[Bigby]

Just began reading this. Loving it so far.

[Maxwell]

2020 Republican Primary Map



Governor Doug Ducey (R-AZ)
Governor Bruce Rauner (R-IL)
Senator Rand Paul (R-KY)
Senator Cory Gardner (R-CO)

The primary season had a strange start - Each of the four leading candidates won one of four primaries. Rand Paul, whose fundraising was anemic and underwhelming, took a surprise win in New Hampshire, with the previously flailing Gardner taking a surprising second. This allowed Gardner to, for a moment, revive his dying campaign with a win in South Carolina over Ducey. Then, in Nevada, Rauner's massive fundraising lead over the rest of the field finally caught up and he won Nevada by a substantial margin, with Rauner and Gardner (and to a smaller extent, Ducey) splitting the mormon vote.

It was Super Tuesday that began to distance the candidates - while other candidates were fighting over states with more moderate and less populist stances, Governor Ducey was winning substantial margins in states like Alabama, Arkansas, North Carolina, states that took his message while rejecting the more moderate, establishment messages of Rauner and Gardner and the odder stances of Rand Paul. Ducey managed to make the Cruz-ite wing of the party and the remains of what a potential Trump campaign would've taken and made them work together. The race took a decisive turn for Ducey beyond the south when he squeaked a narrow win in Michigan over the seemingly dominant Rauner. After Super Tuesday II, where Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania were voting, Gardner withdrew, citing his third place standing or lower in every state. Gardner's endorsement of Rauner made some think Rauner would surge to victory in the remaining states, and indeed, Rauner scored a double digit win in New York after ST II, but Ducey's delegate lead was already problematic for Rauner, and with party officials demanding unity, Ducey managed to make up the ground and win California by 15 points, effectively ending the race.

[Mike Thick]

It's back! I read this when it first began when I was lurking. Reading through this the other day, I wondered what became of it.

Keep up the awesome work!

[Maxwell]

Sanders gains traction, but will it matter?



National Polls
41% Ducey
32% Clinton
19% Sanders
8% Undecided

Phoenix, Arizona - After wrapping up the nomination, many thought the Republicans would have a tough time winning this year after nominating Arizona Governor Doug Ducey, a leader on anti-immigration and anti-trade issues, but it turns out Ducey has a rare advantage - a democratic third party challenger. Clinton's tight rope walk between the moderates and liberals of her party has erupted into a firey fight in which Bernie Sanders, her primary challenger, ending with Sanders joining the race as the third candidate. Sanders didn't actively compete in primaries - he was on the wrong end of a line of negative attack ads about his personal life that downed him in the polls.

But Sanders has experienced a serious revival - Clinton has faced a lot of problems in the face of economic slowdown, a burgeoning deficit, and her failed attempt to pass a stimulus package. And several members of her administration are accused of making backroom deals with companies for special regulatory treatment. This has ended with the resignation of EPA Head John Salazar. The links so far have not reached Clinton's desk, but the rumors remain, and her approval slips.

The cloud of corruption hanging over Clinton's administration on the last few months have largely vindicated Sanders revealing personal issues. Crowds at his speeches have been growing, and even in Phoenix, Arizona, he is speaking to thousands of voters who are growing weary of the status quo. Now his polls have reached the highest they've ever been.

Maybe Ducey has a real shot at this after all.

[Maxwell]

Republican Convention

Despite a contentious floor fight over the immigration and trade part of the platform, Republicans fell in line behind Governor Ducey, largely thanks to Clinton's obvious problems and Ducey's major efforts to unite the party. Ducey's team, working to gain the best possible convention bump, revealed the veep pick  to be Former South Carolina Governor and Presidential candidate Nikki Haley. While Haley gained little traction from the primary, she came out of it with the fewest bumps to her record, and her pick moves the needle significantly with Republican monied interests previously skeptical of Ducey. The Keynote was given by Governor Roman Castillo, the 34 year old Hispanic Governor of New Mexico. Despite Castillo's disagreements with Ducey on immigration, he gave a fiery address that brought the Republican convention denouncing the direction of the Clinton administration and praising Ducey as a competent manager. Ducey remains an unimpressive public speaker, and was outshone by Governor Bruce Rauner, whose rousing address was probably the highlight of the night.

Democratic Convention

The Democratic Convention felt like the Democratic administration - running out of steam. With so many years of midterms loses, the Party's talent pool has depleted significantly, and the keynote address was given by Governor Gavin Newsom, who was criticized for giving an address largely promoting his own candidacy. Senator Patrick Murphy, a rising star in the party, was also criticized for giving a speech many felt was 10 minutes too long. Heinrich, as expected, brought the convention to a lull, and by the time it came to Clinton, the reviews were in. Clinton gave a strong convention address, defending her accomplishments, admonishing Ducey as backward, and defending the progress made by previous democratic Presidents. The bump here was minimal.

And what's happening with Sanders

Sanders held a mini-convention at a large rally, where he revealed his running-mate to be Congressman Keith Ellison. Sanders Youtube aired convention received a lot of views, but felt empty as only Ellison and Sanders really gave a performance. To make up for it later on, Sanders appeared with Ron Unz to announce Unz's support and potential cabinet pick for the oddball Republican. Needless to say, the gambit didn't work, and Sanders declines in the face of two major party conventions.

National Polls
46% Ducey
32% Clinton
16% Sanders
6% Undecided

[Maxwell]

ELECTION NIGHT - Ducey wins!

Governor Doug Ducey (R-AZ)/Former Governor Nikki Haley (R-SC) - 43.93%, 281 EV's
President Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Vice President Martin Heinrich (D-NM) - 43.55%, 254 EV's
Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT)/Congressman Keith Ellison (I-MN) - 11.20%, 3 EV's

With recanvassing being done in both Michigan and Pennsylvania, the results are still murky, but the winner of the popular vote is Governor Douglas Ducey of Arizona, and thanks to strong voter protections in Michigan and Pennsylvania, there is doubt whether any votes change hands. Ducey wins despite a last minute reveal of a drunk driving accident that the candidate had covered up, and having the lowest percentage of voters voting for him of any Republican candidate since Bob Dole in 1996. This is thanks to the split of votes between President Clinton, and her left-wing rival, Senator Sanders. Clinton's Presidency was marked by an inability to maneuver the more extreme left and right-wings of both parties, and her administrative staffs penchant for scandal. Sanders ran on a platform of ethics reform, campaign finance reform, and attacking the still rampart income inequality. Ducey made the election a reprimand of Clinton's economic policies, which have not mitigated the continuing recession as unemployment has reached 8%.

Despite a win from Ducey, Republicans lost some of their leverage in the Senate, losing 4 seats to Democrats, and potentially five depending on how Louisiana goes (Senator Cassidy will face State Senator John Milkovich). In Georgia, Michelle Nunn will avoid a run-off against Senator David Perdue, ending his career. In Iowa, a rough and tumble battle allowed State Senator Jeff Danielson to defeat Senator Joni Ernst by 2 points.  The one that most thought would be the widest margin was Maine, where State Senate President Justin Alfond crushed Interim Senator Peter Edgecomb, but really the biggest win belonged to North Carolina Attorney General Josh Stein, who defeated Senator Thom Tillis by over ten points. This is not enough, however, to shake the Republicans 58-42 Senate majority, and they will be down to a 54-46 majority.

Democrats had a weaker than expected night in the House, picking up only 12 seats there (at least a third of which are from California, where Tony Strickland, Paul Chabot, Johnny Tacherra and Bill Berryhill turned out to be one term turkeys). It seemed Democrats could only knock off the most obvious 2018 one termers - Jacob Turk of Missouri's 5th, Pat Shey of Iowa's 1st, Neil Parrott of Maryland's 6th, Scott Bruun of Oregon's 6th and few others. The most surprising hold of the night was in IL-3, where moderate Congressman Chris Nybo held on despite a rigorous Democratic effort. With Republicans holding both chambers of Congress still, the Democrats are going to have to do some soul searching.

[Maxwell]

ELECTION STATS

Best Ducey State: Wyoming (64.6%)
Best Clinton State: D.C. (84.8%)
Best Sanders State: Vermont (41.2%)

States Within 5%
Michigan - 0.04% (42.12% Ducey - 42.08% Clinton - 14.00% Sanders)
Wisconsin - 0.1% (41.6% Ducey - 41.5% Clinton - 15.4% Sanders)
Pennsylvania - 0.2% (43.5% Ducey - 43.3% Clinton - 12.1% Sanders)
Colorado - 0.5% (42.1% Clinton - 41.6% Ducey - 15.2% Sanders)
Iowa - 1.2% (43.8% Ducey - 42.6% Clinton - 12.2% Sanders)
New Hampshire - 3.1% (41.1% Ducey - 38.0% Clinton - 19.8% Sanders)
Florida - 3.3% (46.5% Clinton - 43.2% Ducey - 9.3% Sanders)
Minnesota - 3.3% (43.5% Clinton - 40.2% Ducey - 14.6% Sanders)
Georgia - 3.3% (48.3% Ducey - 45% Clinton - 5.5% Sanders)
Ohio - 4.2% (45.6% Ducey - 41.4% Clinton - 11.6% Sanders)
Maine - 4.4% (43.0% Clinton - 38.6% Ducey - 16.5% Sanders)
North Carolina - 4.5% (47.3% Ducey - 42.8% Clinton - 8.7% Sanders)

States with 10%
Oregon - 6.0% (44.2% Clinton - 38.2% Ducey - 16.2% Sanders)
Washington - 7.4% (45.7% Clinton - 38.3% Ducey - 14.6% Sanders)
South Carolina - 8.4% (51.2% Ducey - 42.8% Clinton - 4.8% Sanders)
Nevada - 9.1% (49.0% Clinton - 39.9% Ducey - 9.9% Sanders)
Mississippi - 9.6% (52.3% Ducey - 42.7% Clinton - 3.9% Sanders)
Virginia - 9.7% (50.1% Clinton - 40.4% Ducey - 8.1% Sanders)
Texas - 9.9% (50.2% Ducey - 40.3% Clinton - 8.3% Sanders)

[Maxwell]

Forgot about this: 2019 Elections

In one of the strongest comebacks in Louisiana history, John Bel Edwards won re-election by a substantial margin. During 2017-2018, Louisiana fell into an economic crisis, and Edwards approvals fell into the 30s. But even as the rest of the country fell in 2019, Edwards' Louisiana managed to return economically. Edwards also got lucky in terms of his opposition - Former Congressman John Fleming, who flopped when running for Senate in 2016, ran as the major standard barer for the party. Fleming's tea party rhetoric reminded voters of the Louisiana legislature, a deeply unpopular institution that had fought Edwards tough and nail. Fleming's proposed budgets also were publically disasterous, and Edwards made them the theme of every ad. By November, Edwards was expected to win, but only after a narrow, expensive run-off. This proved not to be the case, as Edwards defeated Fleming by over 20 points.

Democrats weren't as lucky in Kentucky. Despite Bevin's low approval ratings and a somewhat decent recruit in on-again-off-again Congressman Ben Chandler (elected in 2016 only to lose again in 2018), the Republican Party proved too dominant to change anything. Bevin fended off a primary challenge from more moderate Republicans (beating State Senator Ron Hardy (fictional) 32-68) who criticized Bevin's style of governance. Chandler was also portrayed as an office hopper - someone who just went from political office to political office running, and the label stuck. Bevin won a sizable victory and with him a majority in the legislature.

Mississippi Democrats continue to have little recruiting, as Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann sweeps into office (beating Chris McDaniel in the Republican primary 42-55). Nothing to see here.

[Maxwell]

Louisiana 2020 Senate Run-Off

The surprise closeness of the 2020 Senate race gave many Democrats hope to begin spending in this state. However, the negativity of the race grew, and Progressive Democrats started criticizing Milkovich as way too conservative even for a Louisiana Senate seat - criticizing his positions on marriage equality, abortion, guns, creationism, and Milkovich's right-wing opposition to the 2017-2018 Louisiana budget that set the state into better fiscal management. Cassidy, meanwhile, gained endorsements from the Chamber of Commerce, and had a rallying around the flag effect in the days to come. Milkovich, nevertheless, brought a connection to rural Louisiana that Democrats haven't had in decades, and won areas that Doug Ducey won substantially (while Cassidy, surprisingly, made up ground where Clinton did better like Baton Rouge and New Orleans).