Poland election - October 25 2015
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  Poland election - October 25 2015
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Author Topic: Poland election - October 25 2015  (Read 54810 times)
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Adam T
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« on: July 17, 2015, 08:45:22 AM »
« edited: July 17, 2015, 02:26:10 PM by Hash »

Don't know anything about it, but it's been called for October 2425, five days after the Canadian election.
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politicus
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« Reply #1 on: July 17, 2015, 10:17:00 AM »

Did not know Poland had become a federation.. Wink
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #2 on: July 17, 2015, 11:44:55 AM »

Currently looking like a PiS landslide.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #3 on: July 17, 2015, 11:53:01 AM »

Currently looking like a PiS landslide.

Uh...
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politicus
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« Reply #4 on: July 17, 2015, 12:07:41 PM »
« Edited: July 17, 2015, 12:29:38 PM by Charlotte Hebdo »

Currently looking like a PiS landslide.

If you take the Estymator poll from yesterday they would get an absolute majority if SLD and PSL end up below the threshold:


PO 28%    
PiS 43%    
SLD 5%    
PSL 5%    
KORWin 2%    
Kukizs Movement 10%    
NPL 4%    
RN 2%

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #5 on: July 17, 2015, 12:08:02 PM »


Yes, it would be more of a deluge wouldn't it?
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politicus
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« Reply #6 on: July 17, 2015, 12:31:44 PM »


That would be a more fitting metaphor when we are talking about a party named PiS.
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politicus
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« Reply #7 on: July 17, 2015, 02:21:04 PM »

The election will be on the 25th, so the date should be corrected.

http://www.thenews.pl/1/9/Artykul/214120,General-election-on-25-October
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #8 on: July 17, 2015, 03:33:35 PM »

I know that you all thing that PiS is some kind of ultra-Catholic party and will make second Iran in Poland but as most of the post-Solidarity parties they are mainly focused on power, in case of PiS claiming it after years of political failures and humiliations. As they have no partner for coalition (maybe Kukiz but I doubt if he will be able to get over 5% threshold) they must secure a majority so also they will probably a little bit make get moderate - and as you can see with president-elect Andrzej Duda and female candidate for the PM they are doing it since the beginning of the year.

Also tomorrow or day after there will be know result of negotiations between main left-wing forces in Poland to join their "forces" and try to enter the parliament. But probably this will not succeed as the main player SLD is not so keen on entering such agreements as electoral threshold for coalitions is higher (8%) and many members of party are scared that they will not get this 8% even in coalition. Main participants in talks are SLD, all what is left from Your (Palikot) Movement, Greens, Labour Union and also a lot individuals and minors but I can't tell you how big is their involvement. For me chances are equal to 20%.

Next elections and I have no party to vote on T_T
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politicus
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« Reply #9 on: July 17, 2015, 03:40:24 PM »
« Edited: July 17, 2015, 03:44:35 PM by Charlotte Hebdo »

One of the questions in the September 6 referendum is introducing single-member constituencies for Sejm elections. If approved would that apply to this election, or only next time

Also, why do you think Kukiz will implode? He is polling at 10% now. If he does we may see a two party parliament with just PO and PiS.
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #10 on: July 17, 2015, 03:54:01 PM »
« Edited: July 17, 2015, 03:57:03 PM by kataak »

No, it is not possible technically and as far as I know legally as changes in electoral law can't be changed so fast. Also preparations to the elections will be during preparations to the referendum.


Also I hope that there will be no changes.


About Kukiz: He made too much mistakes, people who were standing behind his success from the organisational point of view now are willing to left him, he jumps from one flower to another and often change his mind. He is not the type of politician, it is visible that he poorly cope with all this stuff connected with elections. And alone he can't win the elections - people whom with he want to cooperate now are not the best sign of fortune as the allies. He says that he will make no platform, he don't want to cooperate with parties but eventually will allow some politicians to take part under his "umbrella". And according to polls in short time he lost half of his support.

And about only three parties in the Sejm is complete bullsh**t - polls ALWAYS underestimate PSL and they are always able to get to the Sejm. In current political situation they are unsinkable unless there will be some huge, really huge affair.
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politicus
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« Reply #11 on: July 17, 2015, 04:07:28 PM »


And about only three two parties in the Sejm is complete bullsh**t - polls ALWAYS underestimate PSL and they are always able to get to the Sejm. In current political situation they are unsinkable unless there will be some huge, really huge affair.

Why? Just because people end up selecting them as the least bad/default option?

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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #12 on: July 17, 2015, 04:17:27 PM »

A lot of people have interest to keep them in parliament, county-level Poland is in many regions connected to that party (PSL have opinion of nepotism based party, that is why I like them - family first!) and in consequence they have support mainly on villages. Also PSL is staunch defender of separate social security system for farmers which gives few privileges to them in comparison with the rest of population and as long as they fulfill their "mission" people would vote them just to defend their interests. So I don't think that people vote for them as for lesser evil Tongue
Other things: polls made by phonecall methods statistically have bigger chance to make polls based on more urban population than rural population. Other thing that people often don't say that they will vote on PSL.
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
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« Reply #13 on: July 17, 2015, 04:34:38 PM »

Kukiz's star is rapidly fading, mostly because he failed to capitalize his success from the presidential election. His prospective list (which is still an unclear project) was polling very high, taking second place after PiS (and before PO) in at least one poll.
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politicus
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« Reply #14 on: July 17, 2015, 04:36:20 PM »

A lot of people have interest to keep them in parliament, county-level Poland is in many regions connected to that party (PSL have opinion of nepotism based party, that is why I like them - family first!) and in consequence they have support mainly on villages. Also PSL is staunch defender of separate social security system for farmers which gives few privileges to them in comparison with the rest of population and as long as they fulfill their "mission" people would vote them just to defend their interests. So I don't think that people vote for them as for lesser evil Tongue
Other things: polls made by phonecall methods statistically have bigger chance to make polls based on more urban population than rural population. Other thing that people often don't say that they will vote on PSL.

1) I know about them being a clientilistic party, but that should not in itself lead to underpolling.

2) How large a share of rural Poles do not have phones? (I would have thought the rural/urban difference on this was marginal by now).

3) "People often don't say that they will vote on PSL" Again, why?
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #15 on: July 17, 2015, 04:41:15 PM »

I know that you all thing that PiS is some kind of ultra-Catholic party and will make second Iran in Poland but as most of the post-Solidarity parties they are mainly focused on power, in case of PiS claiming it after years of political failures and humiliations. As they have no partner for coalition (maybe Kukiz but I doubt if he will be able to get over 5% threshold) they must secure a majority so also they will probably a little bit make get moderate - and as you can see with president-elect Andrzej Duda and female candidate for the PM they are doing it since the beginning of the year.

Right, Kukiz, with his numbers steadily declining, may very well fell below 5% As of other parties, PSL, despite their willingness to enter various coalitions thorough history, seems unlikely junior partner. There's certainly not going to be any POPiS - we're no longer in 2004/2005, when it seemed inevitable for many. SLD would be an odd match, despite Miller's recent signals (The Pimp might be out of any postion after the election anyway and I sincerely hope for SLD to finally drop dead). NowoczesnaPL is another prematurely declining project, just as Korwin, who can't repeat his onetime success in 2014 EP elections.

There's no way PiS can win a majority on its own, just as SLD couldn't in 2001 and PO in 2007. That makes the whole situation extremely interesting. Nothing can be really ruled out.

One thing to remember. PiS didn't suddenly became popular. We're witnessing results of fatigue from PO government which, quite frankly, sucks.
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #16 on: July 17, 2015, 04:44:30 PM »

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Extremely few, I'd say. I've spend some years in a rural Poland and honestly can't remember anyone without a phone.

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Some people might be embarassed of admitting they're voting for PSL of all parties.

My guess is that PSL had strong enough network to cross the 5%.
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #17 on: July 17, 2015, 06:50:36 PM »

1) I know about them being a clientilistic party, but that should not in itself lead to underpolling.

It's connected with third question and Kalwejt answer. You can never met any person who will say to you that he/she votes on PSL as it many people may consider it not worthy to tell that they chose that party during elections.

2) How large a share of rural Poles do not have phones? (I would have thought the rural/urban difference on this was marginal by now).

I think that there is no difference, but more people lives in cities thus there is higher probability to ask in poll person from urban areas where PSL has support equal to 0%-1%. Also as Polish polling companies are really bad and I would not be surprised if they poll only in cities as their research group rarely is bigger than 1000 people.

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« Reply #18 on: July 17, 2015, 08:00:48 PM »

How many idiots are going to rise to stratospheric levels, then immediately collapse before Poland gets bored with this silliness?
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #19 on: July 18, 2015, 03:58:30 AM »

How many idiots are going to rise to stratospheric levels, then immediately collapse before Poland gets bored with this silliness?


I don't think it will ever happen. We are romantics, we unconsciously love such upsurges without thinking about consequences. Be British somewhere else :I
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #20 on: July 18, 2015, 09:49:58 AM »

SLD National Council agreed on creating coalition for next parliamentary elections.
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Hifly
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« Reply #21 on: July 18, 2015, 10:39:37 AM »

SLD National Council agreed on creating coalition for next parliamentary elections.

With which other party/ies?
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« Reply #22 on: July 18, 2015, 11:00:01 AM »

I think it's best if the social democrats fall out of parliament. Then all the knees will be drawn, Miller and the old guard will be booted and something actually feasible can rise in its place.
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #23 on: July 18, 2015, 11:21:41 AM »

SLD National Council agreed on creating coalition for next parliamentary elections.

With which other party/ies?

As for majors with Your Movement and as for minors for with Greens. Others are not sure because some of the minors may left if they will get no satisfactory for them places on the electoral lists.


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:') Not gonna happen in near future.

I don't really think that there is anything needed on place of SLD. Who needs social liberals with degenerated contacts with elites? As for the "real left" there is Razem party - Polish C class version of Podemos, we have also "anti imperialistic" left as there is Zmiana party and there is also "we are real labour party without pseudo-philosophical pretentious aura"  Ruch Sprawiedliwości Społecznej and Polska Partia Pracy. Not to mention all those spillovers of both SLD and Your Movement which was created during few last years.

 Just no one want so vote on them, and I doubt that all SLD electorate will go vote for them in situation with no SLD. For now left is discredited. Maybe after eventual decline of Civic Platform something will change as liberal media needs Katechonic party to STOP THE PiS!!111oneone!! and maybe they will change front to support some left party. As for now left is weak and nothing foreshadow change in that matter.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #24 on: July 18, 2015, 04:16:48 PM »

SLD is in the dumps again? Good. What happened to all that talk of Miller become Prime Minister a couple of months ago?
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