Portugal Presidential Election, January 2016

[Mogrovejo]

With the legislative elections behind us, Portuguese voters will go back to  the polling places in less than 3 months to elect the successor of current President Cavaco Silva. Two round system; run-off happens 2 weeks after the first election if no candidates reaches 50%+1 of the popular vote. With a minority government, the importance of the President's role tends to increase.

Intercampus polled the Presidential race along their exit poll yesterday and these were the results:


The main candidates are:

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (still to announce but very likely to get in): aka O Professor, constitutional law professor, PSD co-founder, member of the Constitutional Assembly, Minister in the AD government, lawyer, journalist. Lead the PSD between 1996 and 1999, leading the 'No' side to victories in the abortion legalization and regionalization referendums, forming a pre-electoral coalition with the CDS and stepping down when infighting began. Most popular political pundit and opinion-maker in the country, his weekly tv/radio shows gaining huge audiences for decades now.  The son of a former Salazar minister, his godfather was Marcello Caetano. 66 years old and very much the favourite.

Rui Rio (still to announce, 50-50 preposition right now I'd guess): center-right technocrat, economist, Mayor of Porto between 2001 and 2013, winning 3 elections and stepping down due to terms limited. Curiously was Rebelo de Sousa's secretary-general during his term as PSD's leader. Strong fiscal conservative. 58 years old.

Maria de Belém Roseira - Former Minister of Health, later Minister of Equality in Guterres PS governments in the 90s. Was PS President (pretty much a cerimonnial role) during Seguro's tenure, stepping down when  Costa was elected leader. Supported by the PS right-wing and catholic factions. Stated she'd announced her candidacy after the legislative elections, expect the official announcement in the next few days. 66 years old.

António Sampaio da Nova - Former Rector of the University of Lisbon, educational science (pedagogy) professor. Has been a declared candidate for a few months. Has the (so far) unstated support of the PS (or its current leadership). BE and PCP seem inclined to endorse his candidacy (and they will if they don't run their own candidates). The three former living Presidents (Eanes, Soares, Sampaio) have also endorsed him. 60 years old.

Henrique Neto - Entrepeneur and businessman, former member of parliament for the PS in the 90s. Fierce critic of the Socrates led PS governments. Maria de Belém's entrance likely stole his potential support base. 79 years old.

There are few more minor declared candidates, of which most will probably struggle to collect the signatures necessary to formalize the candidacy. The most notable amongst them being Paulo Morais, anti-corruption activist and indefatigable demagogue.

As it stands, and assuming Marcelo and Rio both enter the race, we'll either have
1) a right and left primaries in the first round, pitching Rebelo de Sousa vs Rio and Maria de Belém vs Sampaio da Nóvoa, the later being clearly ideological, the former being more about personalities, the Lisbon based exuberant law professor and pundit vs the Northern austere economist with a reputation for good management (With any of them being a strong favourite in the run-off, as they have much higher crossover appeal, at least as of now) or
2) Marcelo winning straight away in the 1st round, a scenario obviously more likely to happen if Rio declines to enter the race.

[Hans-im-Glück]

If Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa runs, then he will win easily. He is so present in TV and all others are easily overlooked. I don't want that he will be the next president, because it seems he have an answer for everything, and this is impossible.

[ag]

We forgot about it, but he ran, and won.

52% of the vote against under 23% for the runner-up.