Poland election - October 25 2015

[Zuza]

Why are Poles in the USA so pro-PiS?

[tpfkaw]

Why are Poles in the USA so pro-PiS?

Emigrated during or shortly after the Communist era. PiS's big issue is prosecuting/barring from office former Communist officials.

[Boston Bread]

I thought former Communists would have been a major PiS support base, Putin style.

[Hydera]

I thought former Communists would have been a major PiS support base, Putin style.

Former communists? I'm sorry.... what?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Why are Poles in the USA so pro-PiS?

Emigrated during or shortly after the Communist era. PiS's big issue is prosecuting/barring from office former Communist officials.

That + strong PiS influences in American Polonia media.

[adma]

And, probably an echo of how Dubyah was more popular in Poland than in most if not all other European jurisdictions...

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

But actually as far as I know Poles in US usually votes on Democrats.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[adma]

But actually as far as I know Poles in US usually votes on Democrats.

Don't know about newcomer Poles; but in the past, Polish-Americans have tended to be classic "Reagan Democrats".

These days, any right-ish lean might be a combination of the "megachurchy" aspect of Polish Catholicism and a deep-seeded economic libertarianism, i.e. Poles *really* hitting the ground running in rejecting Communism.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Figures for Canada were similar to the US: 69.8% PiS. I suspect that in all cases there's also the issue of who has gone to the trouble (is it much trouble?) of registering to vote abroad.

Votes cast by country for the top ten...

1. Britain (54,460)
2. USA (24,856)
3. Germany (19,875)
4. Ireland (9,000)
5. Norway (7,472)
6. Belgium (7,436)
7. France (6,740)
8. Netherlands (5,835)
9. Canada (4,587)
10. Sweden (4,080)

[SNJ1985]

But actually as far as I know Poles in US usually votes on Democrats.

Don't know about newcomer Poles; but in the past, Polish-Americans have tended to be classic "Reagan Democrats".

These days, any right-ish lean might be a combination of the "megachurchy" aspect of Polish Catholicism and a deep-seeded economic libertarianism, i.e. Poles *really* hitting the ground running in rejecting Communism.

Wikipedia has a whole article about the Polish-American vote, including presidential election results:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish-American_vote

[tpfkaw]

But actually as far as I know Poles in US usually votes on Democrats.

Don't know about newcomer Poles; but in the past, Polish-Americans have tended to be classic "Reagan Democrats".

These days, any right-ish lean might be a combination of the "megachurchy" aspect of Polish Catholicism and a deep-seeded economic libertarianism, i.e. Poles *really* hitting the ground running in rejecting Communism.

Wikipedia has a whole article about the Polish-American vote, including presidential election results:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish-American_vote

Some of those seem dubious. Like, surely George Wallace won some votes from Polish-Americans in 1968, and I find it very hard to believe Herbert Hoover won Poles (and by such a large margin) in 1928. And also it's pretty hard to believe that Obama won Poles by 12 points in 2012 while losing whites by 19 along with almost every white subgroup (i.e. he lost white females aged 18-29).

[Angel of Death]

Can anyone elaborate on how parties and alliances are legally distinguished for the purpose of determining the electoral threshold?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Can anyone elaborate on how parties and alliances are legally distinguished for the purpose of determining the electoral threshold?

I can, but not today.

[adma]

Some of those seem dubious. Like, surely George Wallace won some votes from Polish-Americans in 1968, and I find it very hard to believe Herbert Hoover won Poles (and by such a large margin) in 1928. And also it's pretty hard to believe that Obama won Poles by 12 points in 2012 while losing whites by 19 along with almost every white subgroup (i.e. he lost white females aged 18-29).

Though it depends on the *kinds* of whites said candidates got their strength from--like, with Wallace in '68 and the more recent GOP, there's a bit of an evangelical "Jesusland" stigma to overcome.  Maybe this Wiki-quote is most pertinent: "Ideologically, they were categorized as being in the more conservative wing of the Democratic Party, and demonstrated a much stronger inclination for third party candidates in presidential elections than the American public".  Thus, at least Presidentially speaking, it's "Dem out of convenience".

Also remember that there's a difference re those who are qualified or seek to vote in *Polish* elections--my feeling being that a lot of them went to North America for a reason, that is, to escape that which was still too residually "Communistic" (or more properly, too bogged down by a culture of Euro-bureaucracy and red tape, i.e. it isn't just the former Soviet Bloc being scapegoated).  And to them, PiS was the most authentically "anti-Communist" option, because it symbolized "freedom".

In that light, I feel that a lot of the Poles who migrated to N America over the past quarter century were those who might have opted for Stan Tyminski over Walesa and Mazowiecki in 1990, and who found the economic-political-societal gist of what they were looking for across the pond (from where, not uncoincidentally, Tyminski came).  Thus the PiS lean: a rejection of self-conscious Euro-style "cosmopolitanism".

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Can anyone elaborate on how parties and alliances are legally distinguished for the purpose of determining the electoral threshold?

If I correctly understand your question:

Parties themselves while they are registering their electoral committees in State Electoral Commission they determine as what type of committee they want to take part in the elections. In parliamentary elections both parties and citizens (third type of electoral committee - voters electoral committee, they have 5% threshold) are able to create such committee which is necessary to take part in the elections. As for the parties each party have possibility to create committee by itself or in coalition with some other parties. If for example there are few parties and there is no dominant force, they have similar support and number of members they can create coalition and not let any party to be dominant partner and use its name as name of committee, organizing everything, getting money from govt etc.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

So now we know who will be in the Beata Szydło cabinet. Although we still need to wait a little bit because of legal and formal issues as as in probably every country we have procedures of govt. creation. 

There will be also major changes in structure of ministeries as there will be no longer Ministry of Economy. Ministry of Infrastructure and Development is going to be reduced and "Developement" part will go to the Ministry of Economy which now will be "super-Ministry" officially called Ministry of Developement (pol. Ministerstwo Rozwoju). There will be also few new ministries and few are going to be gradually reduced and eventually removed. New important ministry which PiS plan to create is Ministry of Energy Production (Have no better idea for translation, pol. Ministerstwo Energetyki) and second a little bit less important Ministry of Marine Economy and Inland Waterway Shipping (pol. Ministerstwo Gospodarki Morskiej i Żeglugi Śródlądowej). Also Chancellery of the Prime Minister of Poland will face maybe not major but significant changes.

As for the personal aspects of new cabinet I will write something after creation of cabinet.

[Tender Branson]

Town map from electoralgeography.com:

[tpfkaw]

Does anyone know why the Germans weren't expelled from that one region?

[Beezer]

I think most of them simply had mixed ethnicity and were therefore allowed to stay. Eventually they might have "rediscovered" their German roots, after all that entire region (Upper Silesia) has a history of different identities overlapping.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Actually Germans after war were not only living in the east of current Opolskie and Silesian voivodships (historic Upper Silesia) but also on terrains of historic Lower Silesia where communist authorities even allowed some cultural associations or newspapers of German minority. Of course those number were relatively small. And many of those who at first decided to stay in Poland later changed their plans and emigrated to Bundesrepublik Deutschland, especially in 60 and 70.

I guess that current situation in Opolskie voivodship is effect of pre-war ethnic composition of that terrain. As typical ethnic borderland western parts of Upper Silesia were territories with a lot of mixed marriages, languages were more similar due to local dialects etc. etc. - that is why both for Germans from those terrains and communist authorities was easier to accept new situation.

Also: Belarussian minority and Lutheran population is also visible on the map
And my city is so cute with winning PO among PiS ocean. wyborynamapie.pl is good page, I highly recommend all interested to follow that page.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, it was (is) a typical border region with centuries of intermingling and much ethnic confusion - have a look at the names on the German Minority list, and not just the surnames either - and no Confessional differences between the different ethnicities either (i.e. pretty much everyone was Catholic). It was decided that though they spoke German they were ethnically Polish and that therefore they were fine to stay so long as they declared their ethnic status as Polish and swore allegiance to the state.

An interesting little psephlogical-historical detail that is probably not directly relevant is that (unusually for somewhere east of the Oder-Neisse line) the area had a substantial KPD vote before 1933.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Map of PiS result for communes in percentage of votes.

This map should be uploaded on Wiki and included as a map for national and religious minorities in Poland.

[swl]

Heard that Duda just granted presidential amnesty to some PiS politician sentenced to 2 years of jail and 10 years of ineligibility, so that this guy can be appointed as minister. True?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Sentence wasn't legally valid yet but still president decided to give amnesty. Although process was purely political there are no doubts that he was guilty. But there are also people who treat him like a hero fighting with corruption etc.