Poland election - October 25 2015

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Map of percentage of votes for PO on communes level.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Foreign electoral commissions results, don't remember if it was there.

[swl]

How will Poland’s Law and Justice party govern?

https://polishpoliticsblog.wordpress.com/2015/11/30/how-will-polands-law-and-justice-party-govern/

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Incompetently.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Incompetently.

Compared with PO Kopacz and late Tusk govt it would be hard to be worse.

How will Poland’s Law and Justice party govern?
https://polishpoliticsblog.wordpress.com/2015/11/30/how-will-polands-law-and-justice-party-govern/

If you are the author of the blog I must say that it was very good, restrained note - needed especially when there is a lot of "panic", especially after Tomasz Lis visit in that German TV and Zakaria bullsh**t in CNN. You should also in few weeks mention also about internal situation in PO and SLD as those parties soon will change their leaders - interesting issue : )

[swl]

I am not the author unfortunately But I keep reading this blog and I find it very informative about politics in Poland.
I hope PiS will be able to implement their promises on social spending.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

This is total madness and kinda sad situation. In brand, new and fresh poll by IBRiS .Nowoczesna got 30% and hold first place, with PiS as a second party and PO slowly falling down into the void.
Yesterday TNS published poll where .Nowoczesna had 24% and was second but still trend is very strong. First poll was conducted for Polish counterpart of "the Sun" and second for Polish daily "Gazeta Wyborcza". 

[DavidB.]

Why this sudden change? Has the PiS government become unpopular already, and if so, why?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Leader of .Nowoczesna, Ryszard Petru have very strong "soft support" from the liberal media in Poland and liberal media are leading ones in Poland actually. I guess he was "anointed" to replace PO as main party of liberal elites or at least to pretend to. Currently with the Constitutional Tribunal affair circles close to the PO started to make huge uproar, created something called Defense of Democracy Committee, there were pretty big as for the Polish standard manifestation against PiS last week (and also informal manifestation of support for PiS, bigger one) and somehow bankster Petru was able to become main leader of opposition.
He visits media almost everyday, recently I seen on one of the biggest info webpage on the Internet like 4 articles with or about Petru - this is kinda ridiculous. PO which is formally the biggest opposition party lost chance to be main force of movement against PiS in this particular case, probably because of internal weakness of the party and leader elections. Also PO is by many seen as not reliable and "lost" party, liberal voters found the alternative - especially with such support of media he can be treated not as a "rookie" in politics but as a serious alternative.

Other thing that other MPs from his party - no one know them, they are poorly prepared during Sejm meetings, they have no local structures, they exists only in the Sejm and what is more important their only asset is the leader with his five minutes. But this is not that important for people who strongly believe that PiS is some greater evil and they need someone who will "stop them". Hatred towards PiS is strong now in that part of Polish society, media are not helping as they as always strongly polarizing society.

Situation is ridiculous - European Parliament in January will have debate about "situation in Poland". And what is this situation about? Short version: Messing with legal issues and Constitutional Tribunal by PiS created huge uproar made by opposition. 

Longer, probably not 100% accurate as I am not a lawyer and I don't really care about legal issues:
PO shortly before elections decided to choose five new members of Constitutional Tribunal as their tenure was to end on November (3) and December (2). They should only choose three of them (but also there are people saying that they shouldn't at all and leave that task for the newly elected Sejm - Constitutional Tribunal said that three was kay although it was during this month), but they said "lel we don't care" - passed act about it and chose 5 of them. PiS after taking power they had decided to do not accept that action and chose their own judges. President Duda also declined to accept those 5 judges oaths and all that legal mumbo-jumbo. And then uproar started. PiS probably as sh**tstorm was big already made another step and started to mess with legal issues, ignore some acts issued by Constitutional Tribunal (so technically they broke or almost broke constitution - both govt as they didn't published immediately Tribunal acts and president Duda as he didn't performed all that legal stuff) and recently decided to prepare new legal act about Constitutional Tribunal (details not important to be honest).

I guess this was just pretext to start full-scale war against PiS as before November 2015 almost no one cared about Tribunal or breaking constitution so much. And now all opposition is standing "in the name of Democracy" against blood-hungry authoritarian hordes of PiS.

PiS made huge mistake but reaction of the opposition was in my opinion (and not only mine) such strong not because of some ideals and for the sake of law and democracy but only as a part of political game. But this time actually a lot of "normal people" got involved into it. Kaczyński and govt probably was thinking that mess done by this affair will make less harm than later cooperation with Constitutional Tribunal which could block some important acts issued by PiS. But this are only speculations.


I am a little bit tired so sorry for the chaotic text - I could also messed up something as recently I am kinda busy and I do not follow that much politics, especially Polish politics.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

From what I can work out, many Poles feel the PiS PM and President are both puppets for the highly controversial and not very popular former PM Kaczyński; and their recent constitutional moves are drawing parallels of the negative kind with Orban. There have also been a few fairly controversial PiS regime figures returning like Antoni Macierewicz, a known conspiracy peddler around the tragic plane crash that killed former President Kaczyński; and Mariusz Kamiński who at the moment is under a ten-year ban on holding office (non-binding) after a court convicted him of abusing his power.

The government is also under extraordinary pressure to implement some highly populist promises (lowering retirement age, free medicine for the retired, raising of the initial threshold of income tax, a large new child subsidy etc. which must be costed with cuts/taxes/borrowing. Their majority was based around these bread and butter issues, so to defer or walk back on their pledges could be fatal.

Essentially a lot of Poles, especially the people who voted PiS and Kukiz; loathe the "elite" and PiS are playing off that, forcing the intelligence agency heads, anti-corruption heads etc. to resign and attempting to stack the courts with their own appointees, in an attempt to reshape Poland under their own image.  (the top court is very much aligned with CU people, and would certainly strike down a lot of PiS's plans if they had the chance)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

sorry kataak, I don;t really understand what the numbers on those polls mean?

[Nhoj]

sorry kataak, I don;t really understand what the numbers on those polls mean?

Pretty sure its two polls one from nov and one from now, showing .Nowoczesna surging.

[Donnie]

sorry kataak, I don;t really understand what the numbers on those polls mean?

Pretty sure its two polls one from nov and one from now, showing .Nowoczesna surging.

With nearly 4 yrs left till next POL elections it's really meaningless !

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

sorry kataak, I don;t really understand what the numbers on those polls mean?

Pretty sure its two polls one from nov and one from now, showing .Nowoczesna surging.

Same polling company, four days of difference in publication. One was made for "Gazeta Wyborcza", main liberal daily - of course that with high increase. I am not that keen on some kind of conspiracies but this looks bad, really. 14% increase is simply not possible, people do not react so quickly. As they were conducted in 4-9 December and second 10-11 December so one day only between finishing one poll and starting second.

With nearly 4 yrs left till next POL elections it's really meaningless !

Can't agree, polls are powerful political tool and can be used as weapon against government or any political party. Parties are also making their own polls as politics can be unpredictable. This year PiS rules the Poland but things can change rapidly.

From what I can work out, many Poles feel the PiS PM and President are both puppets for the highly controversial and not very popular former PM Kaczyński; and their recent constitutional moves are drawing parallels of the negative kind with Orban. There have also been a few fairly controversial PiS regime figures returning like Antoni Macierewicz, a known conspiracy peddler around the tragic plane crash that killed former President Kaczyński; and Mariusz Kamiński who at the moment is under a ten-year ban on holding office (non-binding) after a court convicted him of abusing his power.

The government is also under extraordinary pressure to implement some highly populist promises (lowering retirement age, free medicine for the retired, raising of the initial threshold of income tax, a large new child subsidy etc. which must be costed with cuts/taxes/borrowing. Their majority was based around these bread and butter issues, so to defer or walk back on their pledges could be fatal.

Essentially a lot of Poles, especially the people who voted PiS and Kukiz; loathe the "elite" and PiS are playing off that, forcing the intelligence agency heads, anti-corruption heads etc. to resign and attempting to stack the courts with their own appointees, in an attempt to reshape Poland under their own image.  (the top court is very much aligned with CU people, and would certainly strike down a lot of PiS's plans if they had the chance)

As for the first part this is the point of view rather of opponents of the PiS. We must remember that they already won elections and they rather care about they "core" voters base (if they care about the voters) rather than that undecided group. Macierewicz is very popular person among PiS voters and I guess also inside the party [same with Kamiński, he has many friends in most influential circle of PiS - so called PC Order (PC stands for Porozumienie Centrum, party which preceded PiS)]. One of their most important part of their "mission" is fight with the "pacts" and decomunisation so I would be surprised if they would not be part of the Szydło cabinet. As for the level of dependence of both PM Szydło and President Duda, it is much lower in case of Duda what is probably effect of the lower competencies of the president. He currently actually do his job pretty well besides those actions which are the effect of the "party loyalty" : P Recent events hurt his popularity but I really hope that he would be able to build his position as a president. Also what is not usually mention in mainstream media he is very popular as a subject of various Internet memes, post-memes and graphics being called in some parts of the Internet "the most memetic president in history of Poland". As for the Szydło I guess it would be strange if she as she has no strong position inside the party would not be somehow "guided" by Kaczyński. Politics in Poland since mid 00's works like that, Polish parties usually have strong formal or informal one-man leadership. Probably only notable example is PSL as they have pretty frequent rotation of leaders.

As for the pressure on PiS already they are working on budget for 2016 but also making some savings on 2015 budget, its visible that they are trying hard to both implement their promises from electoral campaign and do not create bigger deficit. I do not want to bore you with details but budget included already their probably most popular promise about child benefits. President Duda also few days ago "sent" to the Sejm project of the act lowering retirement age. Today in the Sejm PiS presented project of so called bank tax which as for now includes taxation of banks, insurance companies and other financial institutions assets exceeding 4 milliard PLN (złoty have no cool graphic sign like dollar or pound : ( ). PiS is not only oriented on social issues but of coarse they will be the biggest issue for them as they are most costly. But I think that they will not cancel their plans in current economic situation.

As for the court that is what PiS wants to believe and most of their supporters and opponents thinks but I guess as members of Constitutional Tribunal are lawyers with great experience and knowledge so if they would had some objections it would be still valid - I mean that if some act would be against constitution in its content Constitutional Tribunal must react besides political sympathies or antipathies. But I guess pacification of Tribunal is so advanced that PiS will not stop until fully or at least partially favourable for them Tribunal composition. But maybe this is necessary for efficient governing, maybe it would be like PiS supporters say and Tribunal would be just tool of opposition, I don't know. Their actions are brutal but such are politics.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Record high support for committees as for the communes.

[DavidB.]

So Rusiec is known for its large number of internet trolls?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Wójt (one person executive arm of commune authorities) of Rusiec commune was on the KORWiN electoral lists.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

.Nowoczesna (.Modern) results as for the communes level

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

There will be (06 III) supplemental elections to the Senate in electoral district number 59. Today there is last day for registration of candidates.

District of course strongly PiS-leaning, with only most northern part usually leaning towards centre, centre-left parties because of Lithuanian minority in Sejny. Compared with Eastern part of voivodship there is no significant orthodox minority. Former senator resigned as he became voivode of Podlaskie voivodeship. In 2015 he got almost 50% of votes and wrecked PSL candidate which got only ca. 30% of votes. As for now candidate of PSL supported by PO (officially) and .nowoczesna (only rumors).
PiS candidate is Anna Maria Anders, daughter of general Władysław Anders - good surname and potentially some additional votes. She is chairmen of Council for the Protection of Struggle and Martyrdom Sites (pol: Rada Ochrony Pamięci Walk i Męczeństwa) and is also Prime Minister representative for International Dialogue (in the rank of secretary of state, but Polish one so equal in rank compared with viceminister).
Mieczysław Bagiński (PSL, supported by PO) is some local politician, not important rather.