Poland election - October 25 2015

[politicus]

Good news for Polish left wing politics - Polska Partia Pracy (PPP) joined Zjednoczona Lewica coalition and resigned from taking part in elections solo. So shortly before end of bringing signatures to the regional electoral commissions Zjednoczona Lewica got support of virtual party which is supported by strong/average trade union. I think we can say that 10% for left now is almost sure.

There was a poll giving them 15%. (knowing we distrust Polish polls, but still noticeable).

What is the background of PPP?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=216038.msg4677723#msg4677723


Ideologically they are the most radical part of the coalition, leaving PPS behind. They are also possibly the most "labour-friendly", fighting for workforce rights, welfare, they are taking part of all trade union actions but also support all that socially liberal stuff etc. Although as for now it is pretty messed up situation. Situation inside PPP is pretty strange, they have no leader since 2014 or even 2013, communication channels are not working well and there are not many information about what is really happening inside the party and how strong structures they have. Although there were some rumors that they actually had enough signatures to take part in elections in whole country many people doubt it and possibly they were doing that only to get some good spots on electoral lists (they got as far as I know one first place on the lists in one of the Silesian districts). On the other hand their decision may be beneficial to the coalition as they may get some of the more radical voters without outflow of that more centre-left and now their name is a little bit more truth as on the left wing they probably will have only one competitor - Razem party. And now coalition has support of two trade unions.

 

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

And that 15% was probably from ewybory which is not reliable source as they are not polling company but just a website - with a nice political chat but still they even do not show their methodology and their polls are just strange.

Also, there were poll by IPSOS where ZLew had 6%
Published three days ago.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Today is the last day when parties can collect and send/give those lists with signatures to the electoral commissions. So today we will be sure which parties will take part in the elections in whole country and which only locally.

[rob in cal]

   In a nutshell, what are the different parties stances on the migrant issue?

[Donnie]

Today is the last day when parties can collect and send/give those lists with signatures to the electoral commissions. So today we will be sure which parties will take part in the elections in whole country and which only locally.

How many parties (coalitions of parties) in total will participate?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Today is the last day when parties can collect and send/give those lists with signatures to the electoral commissions. So today we will be sure which parties will take part in the elections in whole country and which only locally.

How many parties (coalitions of parties) in total will participate?

They are still counting signatures, this is normal there.

As for the refugees/migrants:

Today we had Sejm special meeting with immigrants as the topic so:
PO: As they are ruling ones they must cope with both EU pressures and domestic pressures. Yesterday PM Ewa Kopacz said that Poland will agree only on taking real refugees not economic immigrants and that there is need to accommodate solidarity with potential and safety of Poland.
On the other hand situation in the EU is dynamic and we can't be sure what will be approach of European Union top members to that issue. But as for now government is not against taking some number of migrants to Poland and today Kopacz were saying things which can be treated as "pro-welcome" stance.

PiS: Rather against, recently they radicalized their opinions with climax in form of today speech of Jarosław Kaczyński - what might be surprising as recently it was Beata Szydło (candidate for PiS PM) who was in the spotlight and Kaczyński have backed down a little bit.  Kaczyński attacked government that they have no right to make such decisions (on taking immigrants), that Germans are their own victims as they created "magnet on immigrants" and that massive influxes of people from other cultural sphere may be dangerous to some extent. In Poland I would call it moderate "against" stance. Also fun fact that major Polish neoconservative Kaczyński today blamed UNITED STATES (!!!) that they had role in political destabilization of Middle East.

SLD+TR: Cautious pro, although today SLD MPs had a lot of questions about "technical" issues like where that people will live, where they will work etc. Leszek Miller, leader of SLD also said that Poland should increase its diplomatic activity in cooperation with other countries to create some solution for that crisis.

PSL: Actually I don't know, probably this is not top issue for them.

Kukiz (personally): Against, postulates help for repatriation of Poles from former Soviet Union (Kazakhstan, Siberia) and help for immigrants but in countries from they comes or countries which with them borders, for active support towards ending the conflicts in Syria and Libya.

KORWiN:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3YTe5YNHBQA
I think that this short clip is enough.

.Nowoczesna: "Pro", but leader of that party said that Poland is not attractive for immigrants and refugees so we should not be worried that they will overflow Poland.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I think its safe to say that there will be eight committees which will participate in elections nationally. They are in the alphabetical order:

KWW "Kukiz'15"
KW KORWiN
KW Nowoczesna Ryszarda Petru
KW Partia Razem
KW Platforma Obywatelska RP
KW Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe
KW Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
KKW Zjednoczona Lewica SLD+TR+PPS+UP+Zieloni

Where KWW stand for Komitet Wyborczy Wyborców (Voters Electoral Committee), KKW stands for Koalicyjny Komitet Wyborczy (Coalition Electoral Committee) and KW for Komitet Wyborczy (Electoral Committee).

There are chances that there will be one more nation-wide committee but as they are after millions of years still counting those signatures we will be sure in maybe two days.

As for the worth to mention locals I will present them to you when PKW will post ALL registered lists. Other thing is Senate as we have single-mandate electoral system. It was in my opinion easier for smaller parties to get few candidates for Senate elections and indeed as registration of candidate for Senate elections require smaller number of signatures - in almost all districts there are some minor candidates.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

They are still counting, is this only Polish case or electoral commissions in other countries also have such problems?

[Tender Branson]

They are still counting, is this only Polish case or electoral commissions in other countries also have such problems?

Not here at least.

The deadline to submit signatures for every election is always a Friday at 1pm.

And we always know which party/candidate has enough or not enough signatures by about 5pm that day to be on the ballot.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

This is ridiculous, 5 days after deadline there are still two regional commissions which have less than 8 published lists on central electoral commission webpage because committees of parties made some mistakes, in Rybnik (Silesia) PSL and PO are obliged to cancel some formal problems on their lists and because of that final lists will be published in Tuesday.

:I

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Summary of the polls since the start of the month...

PiS between 35% and 38%, PO between 21% and 25%, ZL between 3% and 15%, Kukiz between 5% and 9%, PSL between 2% and 5% (but almost always the latter), NPL between 2% and 7%, KORWiN between 2% and 6%.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Summary of the polls since the start of the month...

ZL between 3% and 15%

This quotation should be final argument when someone will ask why we do not post Polish polls there

[Zanas]

Summary of the polls since the start of the month...

ZL between 3% and 15%

This quotation should be final argument when someone will ask why we do not post Polish polls there

Well that's not so bad, that's only a 4-pt variation within a 4-pt margin of error. I've seen Latin-American polls wildly beating this in volatility...

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

No, I mean that there was poll conducted by big polling company which was brave enough to publish poll with 3% for ZLew. Even staunch anti-communists would say that less than 5% is not possible.

[politicus]

To the Poles: Poland ended up supporting refugee quotas despite the governments declared intention to vote "no". How much does that help PiS?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Outrage against PO of forced quotas opponents is high enough already that probably it couldn't be worse. PO electorate is rather pro-quotas so in my opinion it will not influence PO support much. On the other hand I don't think that PiS will get some of the right-wing electorate which usually votes on Korwin/Braun/whatever and of course is against quotas.

[politicus]

Okay, I would have thought it would block POs last hope of getting (certain groups of) swing voters to return.

When POs voters are pro-quotas fear of not being able to get swing voters back would seem the most logical reason for them to be against quotas until the very end (they apparently only yielded to German pressure shortly before the vote).

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

When POs voters are pro-quotas fear of not being able to get swing voters back would seem the most logical reason for them to be against quotas until the very end (they apparently only yielded to German pressure shortly before the vote).

Exactly, although Kopacz actually never was against quotas itself - rather wanted to negotiate conditions and numbers than veto it at all.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

As far as I can see electoral commission uploaded all lists so now we can 100% surely talk about who will participate in elections. Maybe tomorrow I will write something about lists and minor parties.

[Donnie]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CPwKRlyWcAAiXTz.png:large

Recap of all Polish parl. polls in September (in red average rounded to 100%)

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Undecided voters may be last chance for PO to get decent result (in their current situation) or for PiS to get majority. But I don't know if anybody can guess what will be the result. We also must remember that in Poland voter frequency/turnout is usually really low even in comparison with other Central European countries like Czech Republic or Hungary and even not mentioning Germany or Austria so it could be not undecided voters but very decided voters who staunchly support one or another party who will decide about final result. I am not political scientist or wizard so as for now its hard to guess or even analyse averaged polls.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

http://www.barometrwyborczy.pl/


Electoral test based only on national-wide committees. Maybe its not the best but first. Some of the questions are ridiculous and are not the subject of real politic discussion in Poland  probably they are just for better matching with the programmes or whatever they based on that test.
After 7 of October there will be published better one electoral test by latarnikwyborczy.pl and I can also translate it later.


Before you start they require you to fill information about citizenship, sex, age and education - you can lie.

You can choose from 5 answers which are:

Zdecydowanie się zgadzam - Strongly agree
Zgadzam się - I agree
Trudno powiedzieć - idk m8
Nie zgadzam się  - I disagree
Zdecydowanie się nie zgadzam - Strongly disagree

Questions/ statements are:

EU and foreign affairs

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Economy

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Law and order

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Society

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Democracy:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

After completing the test there will be one more section with personal question but you can skip it. After that you have selection of your economic and social views (etatism/liberalism, conservatism/liberalism) but you can also skip it and then you get the results. When score for the party is on green bar that means that your views and party views are well matched, yellow poorly matched and red no match between your views and views of the party.

My result:

[Diouf]

Didn't have any particularly good matches:

.N  29,9%
PO 24,2%
Razem 24,0%
PSL 23,8%
ZL 18,3%
PiS 1,3%
Kukiz -8,8%
Korwin -12,9%

[tpfkaw]

As I might expect in any country, nobody really represents my views.

Korwin: 32.9
.N: 20.1
PO: 11.7
Kukiz: 9.6
PSL: -3.8
PiS: -10.8
ZL: -21.3
Razem: -26.5