Poland election - October 25 2015

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Honestly, the only road for the left's recovery (a slow one, of course, but still), if for SLD to finally drop dead. They are never going to reform from the apparatchik roots and, as long as they are in the Sejm, no matter with how few MPs, there's no space.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Miller is eternal.

[politicus]

Kukicz is rising again according to two new polls, but they differ vastly on KPL (5% and 1% respectively) and SDL/left wing. One has the new leftist alliance United Left/Zjednoczona Lewica (ZL) on 7%, the other SDL below the threshold at a mere 3%. PO back on the level it had a month ago with 23%.

http://300polityka.pl/news/2015/07/16/zjednoczona-lewica-silniejsza-10-punktow-przewagi-pis-nad-po-w-sondazu-mb-dla-faktow-tvn/

http://polska.newsweek.pl/sondaz-parlamentarny-trzy-partie-w-sejmie-i-niska-frekwencja,artykuly,367005,1.html

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I highly recommend to abbreviate name Zjednoczona Lewica to ZLew which can be translated into "sink/basin" - fits this coalition really well.

About the polls:

Polling firms in Poland have different methodologies so it's best to compare only previous polls conducted by this particular firm:

Month ago Kukiz had 24% in polls by this polling company but probably stabilization and now little rise still can be too little for him. But we will see.
http://www4.rp.pl/Polityka/307209915-Sondaz-PiS-na-czele-topnieje-poparcie-dla-Kukiza.html
Yesterday published poll by Rzeczpospolita newspaper made by IBRiS:
PiS – 35 proc., PO – 24, Ruch Kukiza – 13, Nowoczesna.pl - 6, PSL/SLD under 5%

From other news:

Radek Sikorski said that he would not run in the elections.

Yay.

[politicus]

I highly recommend to abbreviate name Zjednoczona Lewica to ZLew which can be translated into "sink/basin" - fits this coalition really well.

About the polls:

Polling firms in Poland have different methodologies so it's best to compare only previous polls conducted by this particular firm:

Month ago Kukiz had 24% in polls by this polling company but probably stabilization and now little rise still can be too little for him. But we will see.
http://www4.rp.pl/Polityka/307209915-Sondaz-PiS-na-czele-topnieje-poparcie-dla-Kukiza.html
Yesterday published poll by Rzeczpospolita newspaper made by IBRiS:
PiS – 35 proc., PO – 24, Ruch Kukiza – 13, Nowoczesna.pl - 6, PSL/SLD under 5%

From other news:

Radek Sikorski said that he would not run in the elections.

Yay.

Which one of them?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Sorry for that, I am still a little bit sleepy.

Millward Brown

[andrew_c]

If the September referendum passes, would the new electoral system be implemented in this election or the next one?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

It was already said in that topic that there is no possibility for that because of legal issues.

[politicus]

Pretty crazy poll from GfK Polonia. Gotta be an outlier.
 
PiS 47%
PO 30%
Kukiz 10,5%  
--------
PSL 3,7%
KORWiN 2,2%
ZL (United Left) 1,1%  
NPL 1%  

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Polls in Poland are useless. That is why I do not post them in this topic. But maybe I will write something about smaller parties which have plans to participate in the elections if anybody is interested. This is more interesting than PO vs PiS struggle.

[politicus]

Polls in Poland are useless. That is why I do not post them in this topic. But maybe I will write something about smaller parties which have plans to participate in the elections if anybody is interested. This is more interesting than PO vs PiS struggle.

It was the small party results that were crazy in that one. They bounce back and forth. NPL from 1 to 6%, ZL/SLD swings almost as much. So yeah Polish pollsters must be pretty bad.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Indeed, they are.

[DC Al Fine]

Polls in Poland are useless. That is why I do not post them in this topic. But maybe I will write something about smaller parties which have plans to participate in the elections if anybody is interested. This is more interesting than PO vs PiS struggle.

Please do. I'm very interested in this.

[politicus]

Polls in Poland are useless. That is why I do not post them in this topic. But maybe I will write something about smaller parties which have plans to participate in the elections if anybody is interested. This is more interesting than PO vs PiS struggle.

Please do. I'm very interested in this.

Yeah, since Kal's thread about Polish politics was somehow deleted there's a void to be filled.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I noticed that on this message boards we have there many lefties and commies so maybe you want to know what is going on there. I am not good at writing so if you are curious about something which I did not mention - just ask.

As for now few parties declared that will try to participate in elections. To start in whole country you need to collect 5000 signatures in at least 21 electoral districts - and that in some way benefits smaller parties which have no support or structures everywhere.
As for now I have knowledge about declarations or registrations from:

Biało-Czerwoni: Just to mention this abomination - newly created splintering party of two formerly important politicians in SLD and Twój Ruch, Grzegorz Napieralski and Andrzej Rozenek. Napieralski was chairman of SLD few years ago, Rozenek was some kind of grey eminence in Twój Ruch, former spokesman. They have some media coverage, they have currently have four MPs in the Sejm and according to Napieralski 1300 declared members which is of course total bullsh**t - for them even 500 would be really big number. They are currently not planing to be part of Zjednoczona Lewica coalition as they are both, Napieralski and Rozenek in conflict with leaders of their former parties. Despite their declarations about collecting signatures in all districts this is probably just wish and "flexing the muscles". Even if they will collect the signatures they will only be able to take 0.5% from Zjednoczona Lewica. Great example of ambitions of politicians over reason and political interest. Additionally they have really ridiculous logo and name of that still not registered party is usual nickname of Polish football national team. Cheap tricks are cheap.

Partia Razem: newest child of former youth organisation of Unia Pracy called Młodzi Socjaliści and some NGOs. There are some information that this group of people in past tried to takeover some other parties (PPS, Greens) but they wasn't successful. As for now they decided to create new parties, without any ''old guard" left politicians and well-knows personas. They pretty often are called Polish version of Spanish Podemos (or party of MacBook users), although they are more social-democratic, they have much much smaller social support and they have no popular leader (in fact they have no one parson as leader, they have collective leadership). As it is usually with left-wing parties focused on young, liberal people (although they try to fight with such image and focus on economic issues, still both their supporters and potential voters are not that poor and usually are progressive in social aspects and they usually care more about it than economic issues. As for the prove: few weeks ago some fanpage on Facebook posted screens of one guy profile who was used as a face on one Razem's info-graphic where he posted some anti-immigrant stuff and not that small number of people were outraged about that, there were voices that they are not real left etc. - as normal on the left-wing. Poor people (those outraged), they discovered that potential socialist parties voters are conservative, tee hee.) they have mainly well organised structures in big cities (Warszawa, Kraków). As for the other locations they recently started to build structures in smaller towns and as far as I know they are somehow present in all voivodship capitals and even there were some attempts to build structures in UK, Norway and France but as they do not publish much about details of their organisational work I can't say if they were successful. Their biggest weakness, beside being new party with almost no recognition and still not organised structures, is very high self-esteem. Few weeks ago they proposed few different parties from the left to start not as coalition but as part of their party committee, they behave like they are only important force on the left. They think that they have many likes on Facebook,talented graphical content creators and decent number of declaration of support now they can ignore everyone and behave like know-it-all bossy dick. As for now they are a little bit enigmatic - if they will be able to collect signatures to start in whole country they even will be able to get 1-1.5%. But as for now I can't say if they are able to do that. If they will get 3% they will get state subsidies for political party but as I can see they don't need that, what can also prove what some people are saying - that they are financed, as Młodzi Socjaliści was, from Germany (maybe Rosa Luxemburg Foundation).

Polska Partia Pracy - political arm of third biggest trade union "WZZ Sierpień 80", although recently becoming more and more virtual. They used to at least try to participate in elections but recently they had no will to do that and their electoral activity were parliamentary elections in 2011 (they got 0,55% of votes). Then they were able to start in all districts but it was 4 years ago, now as far as I know party is weaker comparing with 2011. In 2013 handful of members took part in Europa+ (coalition made by Palikot before euroelections) leaving PPP but still being member of trade union (so they just wanted to get some euromonies) Their biggest asset is of course trade union which may be helpful but I don't think that they will be able to get more than 0.4% of votes with such competition. On the other hand if all minor parties will be not able to collect signatures they will easily reclaim their non-formal, maybe not leadership, but dominant position of the far-left wing.  Information about their start wasn't covered by media almost at all, but before they were mentioned as there were first meeting before creation of Zjednoczona LewicaThey resigned, probably they were quickly discouraged by not surprising dominance of SLD. Their start although possibly will not be an earthquake for the whole political scene may further decrease chances for left-wing to enter to the Sejm after elections.

Ruch Sprawiedliwości Społecznej (in this elections as Ruch Społeczny RP) - Party created also recently, in 2014. Contrary to the Razem  they have well-know leader Piotr Ikonowicz (in past we was in many parties, it is his main weaknes probalby - lack of stability and determination) and they are really more focused on economic issues than on social progressiveness. They are rather obscure anti-capitalists than media-friendly reformists, although Ikonowicz sometimes is invited by major TV stations. As this is Polish party as they have one leader his position is almost absolute and recently he decided that in next elections they will start together with rather populist agrarian organisation Ruch Społeczny RP led by Sławomir Izdebski (formerly in Samoobrona and her mutations, supporting Kukiz in presidential elections) and not as party electoral committee but as voters committee with name of Izdebski organisation what made some dissent inside the party (some para-Trotskyist fraction said that durr no cooperation with right-wing burr, but they are irrelevant). Resigning from start under own party name is not actually bad idea because people rather know Ikonowicz than name of his party.
As for the committee they, both RSS and RS RP are poorer than PPP and Razem, and as far as I know they have weaker structures. Although Izdebski had some media coverage in 2014 and 2015 as he is also leader of farmers trade union and made some protests and organised actions I guess this is too little to get more than 0.5% in elections. Sudden awakening of PPP will probably "steal" a lot of their potential electorate as they are similar in terms of program and rhetoric. On the other hand Ikonowicz is still open for cooperation with some other parties like earlier mentioned PPP and Greens. As for agrarian "wing of committee" will probably not help much as rural areas are not the same as in the 90's and 00's, farmers are generally richer and those which are dissatisfied usually votes for PiS as this party took over former Samoobrona electorate (although as far as I know some members of Samoobrona from some voivodships and various mutations of this party joined Izdebski when he was supporting Kukiz, so somewhere between 2014 and 2015).

Samoobrona - while being only shadow of former power and glory actually Samoobrona decided to start in elections. Although having no chances to register they already started to collect sigantures in few voivodships what shows that they still have somehow active structures even in really not-Samoobronish regions like Pomeranian Voivodship what is actually surprising after all those splits. I don't know if any Samoobrona mutations like Samoobrona Odrodzenie (rather virtual party with ca. 40-50 members, or even less) or Partia Regionów (nowadays they cooperate with Zmiana party, main pro-russian party in Poland) will participate in elections but probably they will not support Samoobrona. What is interesting on their webpage they posted communicate that their National Council of party officially allowed leader to talk with other parties about coalitions. Unfortunately I don't think that they will find anybody important who would be interested in such marriage. Also recently they little bit turned into right but only in populist way.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

As for the Zjednoczona Lewica coalition there are some leaks about leaders of the electoral lists in electoral districts but unfortunately there is no information if any miniors besides Wolność and Równość (split from Twój Ruch, radicall progressive and anticlerical party, rather for upper strata) will get anything.

Of course I will continue in next posts as there will be much more parties and committees.
In period of time closer to the elections I will post complete list of committees as not all will be connected with any party.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Glorious news, everybody! Grzegorz Braun is forming his own committee!

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Szczęść Boże!

[PJ]

Greens tying themselves to SLD seems like a terrible idea.

How are the referendum questions polling?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Greens tying themselves to SLD seems like a terrible idea.

How are the referendum questions polling?

But if they get any first place on local electoral list they may have MPs in the Sejm.

As now campaign for parliamentary elections started no one cares about this referendum.

[Simfan34]

Glorious news, everybody! Grzegorz Braun is forming his own committee!

Yay!

[PJ]

But if they get any first place on local electoral list they may have MPs in the Sejm.

But the raised threshold for coalitions makes this unlikely. The SLD is a sad excuse for a left-wing party dying a slow death, and the Greens (who are one of Poland's few sane voices atm) should focus on quickening that death so that the Polish left can be represented by a party(ies) with some semblance of legitimacy, not tie themselves to a sinking ship.

[SNJ1985]

A recent poll

http://ewybory.eu/sonda-uliczna-09-08-2015/

[politicus]

A recent poll

http://ewybory.eu/sonda-uliczna-09-08-2015/

Polls are regularly uploaded to the Wiki page, but given the low quality of Polish polls they are hardly worth discussing (they are ridiculously volatile).

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

But if they get any first place on local electoral list they may have MPs in the Sejm.

But the raised threshold for coalitions makes this unlikely. The SLD is a sad excuse for a left-wing party dying a slow death, and the Greens (who are one of Poland's few sane voices atm) should focus on quickening that death so that the Polish left can be represented by a party(ies) with some semblance of legitimacy, not tie themselves to a sinking ship.

But you know, Greens are really weak in Poland - they have no technical possibility to weaken SLD. In my opinion it is better to get something by cooperation and then in the times of great collapse just distance from SLD, voters usually have bad memory.

As for the new news about "Corpse" coalition (KKW Zjednoczona Lewica SLD-TR-UP-Zieloni, trup in Polish means corpse) they as far as I know divided first places on lists. I am on holidays now so I have no good connection to the news but SLD got 60% of "firsts", TR got 25% and the rest for their goons. Maybe during the weekend I will post something more about potential committees and also those registered who started to collect votes. There are a lot of them, some are really exotic and anonymous, next months will be funny.

http://parlament2015.pkw.gov.pl/komitety