Poland election - October 25 2015

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Hypothetically, who would the left prop up if push came to shove? The hated Thatcherite establishment of PO or the equally loathed soccons of PI?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Hypothetically, who would the left prop up if push came to shove? The hated Thatcherite establishment of PO or the equally loathed soccons of PI?

ZLew? Rather PO. But it depends who would enter the Sejm after elections from ZLew list, there are some candidates who might not support that idea and as this is coalition some might broke the agreement with SLD/TR. With less than 10% ZLew will have less than 41 MPs (there are 41 electoral districts in Sejm elections) so they will have less than required to  get MP from all districts and this is not sure that for example candidates of Greens will enter the parliament. That might happen if ZLew result in their districts will be relatively poor. Additionally candidates from the second places - which are often from SLD might have better score than "plankton" candidates. If SLD will get majority (they have according to the coalition agreement most of the lists leaders so its possible) of seats they probably will support PO. Other thing that PO-SLD-something more can be too little to create cabinet. If PiS also will not create government next elections will be soon.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Polish Communist Party boycotts the elections u_u

And just to mention:
IBRiS, so one of that rather medium/poor quality polling companies made two last polls after the leaders debate and result shows how stupid people are and that strategy to base party not on leaders but on collective in Poland just can't work. There is huge gain in polls by Razem, but we must remember that IRBiS is sh**tty.

PiS: 37%
PO: 23%
ZLew: 8.9%
.Nowoczesna: 6.4%
Kukiz: 5.9%
PSL: 5.1%
KORWiN: 4.1%
Razem: 3.9% (!!!)
Others: 0.3%
Dunno: 5.3%

Second poll:
PiS: 35.3%
PO: 24.4%
ZLew: 8.1%
Cookies: 6.7%
.Nowoczesna: 6.2%
PSL: 4.7%
KORWiN: 4.1%
Razem: 2.5%

[Donnie]

With 3 days left in Poland, here's the average of 5 major polls
published today CET:

PIS                  38,1 %
PO                    24,7 %
Kukiz 15             8,6%
United Left         8,6 %
Nowoczesna       7,0%
PSL                     5,5%
----5% thereshold---------
Korwin                4,8%
others                 2,7%

source: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CR8LR9_UwAAarRx.png:large

My (as always accurate) prediction, will be published tomorrow at 4 P.M ET. Stay tuned.
  

[Famous Mortimer]

Kukiz 15 are the only people who might support a PIS minority government, correct?

Everyone else favors PO?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

My (as always accurate) prediction, will be published tomorrow at 4 P.M ET. Stay tuned. 

:OOOO

Kukiz 15 are the only people who might support a PIS minority government, correct?

Everyone else favors PO?

Rather yes.

[Hydera]

Kukiz 15 are the only people who might support a PIS minority government, correct?

Everyone else favors PO?

Korwin supports PO?

I guess that even though PO is not socially conservative as with the Korwin party their closer on economics.

[tpfkaw]

Korwin supports PO?

I guess that even though PO is not socially conservative as with the Korwin party their closer on economics.

As I understand it they don't, but they're unlikely to be over the threshold.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Korwin supports PO?

I guess that even though PO is not socially conservative as with the Korwin party their closer on economics.

As I understand it they don't, but they're unlikely to be over the threshold.

That. Sorry, but it is hard to me after so many years to get over possibility of Korwin being MP in Sejm.

[Donnie]

final prediction:

PIS                   40%
PO                     23%
Kukiz 15           10%
ZL                 7.0-8.4% - OUT (71% probability-8% thereshold)
PSL                     7%
-----------------5 % thereshold-----------------
Nowoczesna   4.2-5.6% - OUT (61% probability)
Korwin               4%
Razem               2%
others               1%

turnout: 47%

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

You know that with Saturday in Poland there will be electoral silence so you can't post anything about Polish parties Otherwise Polish police will find you and you will go to jail. For real.

[jaichind]

Just so I am clear, the PiS candidate for PM is Szydło even though Kaczyński is the guy in charge.  In the case, and it seems almost a certainty now, PiS will form the government, will PiS then do a bait-and-switch and put in Kaczyński?  Or will Kaczyński just control things from behind the scenes?   I must assume that Kaczyński is not the PiS candidate because everyone, including Kaczyński, knows that Kaczyński is a polarizing figure and running him risks a PiS defeat from the jaws of victory.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Probably as for now only Kaczyński know how will it look like although it would be stupid to "throw out" Szydło after such campaign, money spent on spin doctors and PR specialists etc. etc. He is the leader of party and will possibly decide about who will become minister, not Szydło.
Kaczyński of course will have great influence on later operating of the government even being outside of it but I can't tell how big it will be. Such maneuver for replacing Szydło would be very dangerous for PiS and is unlikely (although political opponents says otherwise), although in my opinion huge part of the PiS voters would prefer him as a PM.

[jaichind]

Final ? IBRiS Poll has

PiS             38.2%    218
PO             22.4%    116
Kukiz’15     10.0%     42
ZL               8.6%      37
.N                7.9%      29
PSL              5.2%      17

KORWiN       3.8%
Razem          2.9%

[jaichind]

You know that with Saturday in Poland there will be electoral silence so you can't post anything about Polish parties Otherwise Polish police will find you and you will go to jail. For real.

This is some sort of cooling off period ?  I guess no polls either.

[Zuza]

My prediction:

PiS 39%
PO 21%
Kukiz'15 9%
ZL 8%
.N 7%
PSL 5.5%
Razem 4.5%
KORWiN 4%
Others 2%

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

It's happening.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Turnout is high as journalists says. It can mean that PO will have higher score than in polls. But this is not sure.

[jaichind]

Any link to results that one can use?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Turnout as for 12:00 will be ca. 13-14 but I will not post it because I am going to my aunt party.
And as for the PO score usually on twitter journalists make something like "bazaar" - they posts some leaks from exit polls with code names for parties as there is electoral silence. As for now PiS 39 and PO 23 - but you know, this is not very reliable

[Donnie]

turnout at noon: 16.47% 

It's going to be 52-53% in the end.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Map for the turnout until 12:00

[jaichind]

POLISH BALLOT TURNOUT 39% AT 5PM: STATE ELECTORAL COMMISSION

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Twitter says that ZLew out lol

[Zanas]

The above map seems like pretty good news for PiS, doesn't it ?