Poland election - October 25 2015

[Famous Mortimer]

Is there a rundown of parties somewhere in this thread?

Law and Justice (hick conservative)
Civic Platform (respectable middle class conservative)
United Left (former communist/generic social democrat)
Polish Peasants Party (farmers party, pro-Civic Platform)
Kukiz 15 (Vague anti-establishment sentiment/secretly far right)
Korwin (personalist party of a senile libertarian turned Putin lover)
.Modern (free market liberal and very secularist)
Razem/Together (social democrats but not Horrible People like the United Left)

[tpfkaw]

UK rather Kukiz/KORWiN

Huh. They'd be voting against their own interests by choosing Euroskeptic parties. And one would think living in the UK (where they overwhelmingly support Labour) would've made them more leftist.

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Both PO and PiS are higher than the national average? So then minor parties don't get much support there?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The UK vote will be younger so the new parties will all get a boost.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Is there a rundown of parties somewhere in this thread?

Law and Justice (hick conservative)
Civic Platform (respectable middle class conservative)
United Left (former communist/generic social democrat)
Polish Peasants Party (farmers party, pro-Civic Platform)
Kukiz 15 (Vague anti-establishment sentiment/secretly far right)
Korwin (personalist party of a senile libertarian turned Putin lover)
.Modern (free market liberal and very secularist)
Razem/Together (social democrats but not Horrible People like the United Left)

Just to add:
Civic Platform electorate is not conservative but some politicians of PO are. But real conservative wing inside PO was killed few years ago. Currently is rather technocratic party of power/governance.

And you know, for Korwin voters PO is left wing, PiS is left wing and Razem are communists

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

UK rather Kukiz/KORWiN

Huh. They'd be voting against their own interests by choosing Euroskeptic parties. And one would think living in the UK (where they overwhelmingly support Labour) would've made them more leftist.

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Both PO and PiS are higher than the national average? So then minor parties don't get much support there?

Presidental:


Europarliamentary:

(Nowa Prawica is former Korwin party)

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Full final results will be today

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

PiS 37,58%
PO 24,09%
Razem 3,62%
Korwin 4,76%
PSL 5,13%
ZLew 7,55%
Kukiz 8,81%
Nowoczesna 7,6%

[jaichind]

PiS 37,58%
PO 24,09%
Razem 3,62%
Korwin 4,76%
PSL 5,13%
ZLew 7,55%
Kukiz 8,81%
Nowoczesna 7,6%

This is the lower House results rght?  If so then exit polls were pretty accurate.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Senate has other electoral system.
http://parlament2015.pkw.gov.pl/351_Wyniki_Senat
There are 91/100 seats already posted by PKW. And as I can see on the map they are updading remaining 9.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Me and politicus should say sorry to they polls in Poland:

[Zuza]

ZL defeat (which seem to be caused, among other things, by voters' shift to Razem right before the elections) looks like a very good news for Razem. I can even imagine Razem emerging as the main (centre-)left party by the next elections.

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) -- Law & Justice, which won 37.58% of votes in general elections on Oct. 25, will have 235 of seats in 460-member lower house of parliament, according to official results published by Poland’s state electoral commission.
Civic Platform, with 24.09% of votes, will have 138 seats
Kukiz’15 party has 8.81% of votes and 42 seats
Nowoczesna has 7.6% of votes and 28 seats
Polish Peasants Party has 5.13% and 16 seats
German minority gains 1 seat
Turnout was 50.92%
NOTE: Changing Poland’s constitution requires 2/3 majority in Sejm lower chamber, or at least 307 seats if all 460 lawmakers take part in vote

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

http://parlament2015.pkw.gov.pl/349_Wyniki_Sejm

Results in Polish there but website is pretty simple to browse.

[tpfkaw]

So 16.21% of voters, or 2,463,181 of them, were disenfranchised by the threshold. If the 459 contested seats were allocated proportionately without any thresholds the results would've been very different:

Seats|Party
--------------------------
 174|Law and Justice
 112|Civic Platform
  41|Kukiz
  35|Modern
  35|United Left
  23|Polish People's Party
  22|Korwin
  16|Together
   1|Zbigniew Stonoga (right-wing perennial candidate)
   1|German Minority

PiS would need either a grand or three-party coalition to have a majority in the Sejm. PiS + Kukiz + PSL (238 seats) would be pretty much the only plausible government, and would probably be quite a bit more inclined towards preserving status quo than the real-life PiS majority is going to be, if for no other reason than that it's hard to forge consensus amongst three fairly disparate parties.

[RodPresident]

With tradition of breaking-aparts in PiS, will this government go full term? And which position Kaczynski will get? Minister or Marshal of Sejm?

[KingSweden]

Question: Why was Szydlo made PM candidate for PiS and not Kacynski? (I think I spelled those right?)

[tpfkaw]

Question: Why was Szydlo made PM candidate for PiS and not Kacynski? (I think I spelled those right?)

Too polarizing a figure.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

So 16.21% of voters, or 2,463,181 of them, were disenfranchised by the threshold. If the 459 contested seats were allocated proportionately without any thresholds the results would've been very different:

Seats|Party
--------------------------
 174|Law and Justice
 112|Civic Platform
  41|Kukiz
  35|Modern
  35|United Left
  23|Polish People's Party
  22|Korwin
  16|Together
   1|Zbigniew Stonoga (right-wing perennial candidate)
   1|German Minority

PiS would need either a grand or three-party coalition to have a majority in the Sejm. PiS + Kukiz + PSL (238 seats) would be pretty much the only plausible government, and would probably be quite a bit more inclined towards preserving status quo than the real-life PiS majority is going to be, if for no other reason than that it's hard to forge consensus amongst three fairly disparate parties.

Good that we have treshold, because otherwise there would be another elections soon.

Question: Why was Szydlo made PM candidate for PiS and not Kacynski? (I think I spelled those right?)

Presidential campaign for Andrzej Duda was successful. PiS decided to support more moderate person than Kaczyński, and not that strong inside the party and it worked well. So probably they wanted to favour similar approach also in parliamentary elections. Kaczyński will be "grey eminence" so still having most of the power in the party and have great influence on the govt.

With tradition of breaking-aparts in PiS, will this government go full term? And which position Kaczynski will get? Minister or Marshal of Sejm?

As for now most of the potential candidates for the most important ministries are already seriously treated by journalists and there are also some declarations made by the party and Kaczyński as for now probably will become only leader of the party. As for the breaking apart I guess as long as PiS have power such situation will be seldom. PiS in this elections cooperated with few smaller parties which in previous Sejm term like Solidarna Polska (right wing, socially conservative and solidarist) or Polska Razem-Zjednoczona Prawica (petite-bourgeoisie centre-right)  which respectively got as far as I calculate correctly 9, 10 and also 2 for Prawica Rzeczpospolitej (Catholic right-wing) which also have one MEP (Marek Jurek). They have also few senators. But I don't think that they will break away as leader of Polska Razem is already declared semi-officially as Minister of Defence.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

If you really feel good when Korwin have a bad day imagine that his newest party didn't succeed in geting 5% in the elections but his former party - Kongres Nowej Prawicy will have parliamentary representation thanks to their "briliant" strategy to start in the elections both independently (they were present only in few electoral districts) and in cooperation with Kukiz. And thanks to great support for Kukiz lists Jacek Wilk, former presidential candidate from KNP now will be member of parliament. But that is not all - Kongres Nowej Prawicy which was created in similar circumstances as KORWiN - Korwin not happy with internal situation in Unia Polityki Realnej (party co-created by Korwin in 1987) split and created his own party - Wolność i Praworządność which after few years transformed into Kongres Nowej Prawicy - is not only former Korwin party which will have MP. Mentioned earlier Unia Polityki Realnej also got one MP thanks to the cooperation in Kukiz. UPR is member of Ruch Narodowy movement (those friends of Jobbik) and its con-liberal wing, Ruch Narodowy now will have 5 MPs in the next Sejm term which one is the leader of UPR.

That is why I love politics. There happens things funnier than in the most of contemporary comedies.  

[Famous Mortimer]

What's the seat breakdown for party's inside Kukiz?

Samoobrona win any seats?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

As for the parties only mentioned by me earlier Ruch Narodowy and Unia Polityki Realnej successfully participated in elections via Kukiz lists. Although we can divide those non-partisan new members into few ideological groups: jointly with Ruch Narodowy there will be ca. 9 nationalists, ca. 9 con-libs, few FPTP proponents, and handful of local activists, local administration members, few trade union activists (as far as I know NSZZ Solidarność) and 7 which is hard to label like for example Polish raper Liroy who is not loved by nationalists as they say he is not serious person and will never be real politician/parliamentarian.


Samoobrona got 4 266 votes (0.03 %) so no.

[Famous Mortimer]

As for the parties only mentioned by me earlier Ruch Narodowy and Unia Polityki Realnej successfully participated in elections via Kukiz lists. Although we can divide those non-partisan new members into few ideological groups: jointly with Ruch Narodowy there will be ca. 9 nationalists, ca. 9 con-libs, few FPTP proponents, and handful of local activists, local administration members, few trade union activists (as far as I know NSZZ Solidarność) and 7 which is hard to label like for example Polish raper Liroy who is not loved by nationalists as they say he is not serious person and will never be real politician/parliamentarian.


Samoobrona got 4 266 votes (0.03 %) so no.

Samoobrona also ran in Kukiz 15 though. In addition to getting those 4000 votes in the few regions where it ran independently. 

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

As for the parties only mentioned by me earlier Ruch Narodowy and Unia Polityki Realnej successfully participated in elections via Kukiz lists. Although we can divide those non-partisan new members into few ideological groups: jointly with Ruch Narodowy there will be ca. 9 nationalists, ca. 9 con-libs, few FPTP proponents, and handful of local activists, local administration members, few trade union activists (as far as I know NSZZ Solidarność) and 7 which is hard to label like for example Polish raper Liroy who is not loved by nationalists as they say he is not serious person and will never be real politician/parliamentarian.

Samoobrona got 4 266 votes (0.03 %) so no.

Samoobrona also ran in Kukiz 15 though. In addition to getting those 4000 votes in the few regions where it ran independently. 

There were one member of Samoobrona on Kukiz lists in whole country but that person start wasn't really result of any agreement, just independent decision of that person, she had 16th place (last, got 2138 votes what is actually not surprising because it was really "Samoobronish" region) on the list and was starting  independently from her party - so we can't say that it was Samoobrona. Just one member, probably no longer active in the party as they even had not mentioned about her on their webpage.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

As we will have no elections in Poland until 2018 (or earlier parliamentary, but I as for now doubt it) we can do two things:

1) Close the topic
2) Change it to Polish politics forum. Until next parliamentarian there might happen some Senate elections for one or more mandates (one may die, one may resign etc. and then voters from district without senator need to choose one again), also 5 minutes after elections there started fight for PO leadership, few politicians already stated that they will take part in that competition. Maybe there will be no elections but at least something is happening in Polish parliamentary main left-wing party : 3

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Results from the UK (c. 54k cast, so thats a pretty small share of the Polish community but whatevers)...

Kukiz 24%, PiS 22.9%, KORWiN 20%, PO 14.9%, N 7.9%, Razem 5.3%, ZL 4.3%, PSL 0.3%

Compare to the overall figures of...

PiS 37.6%, PO 24.1%, Kukiz 8.8%, N 7.6%, ZL 7.5%, PSL 5.1%, KORWiN 4.7%, Razem 3.6%

Compare to the figures for the United States of... well... PiS 73% and I'll leave it at that. These parts of the diaspora are not alike.