Poland election - October 25 2015

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Currently looking like a PiS landslide.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Currently looking like a PiS landslide.

Uh...

Yes, it would be more of a deluge wouldn't it?

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Well who the hell wants to talk about a PiS deluge? I have a lot of affection for Poland I guess I'll pick over the electoral devastation when its over but...

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Summary of the polls since the start of the month...

PiS between 35% and 38%, PO between 21% and 25%, ZL between 3% and 15%, Kukiz between 5% and 9%, PSL between 2% and 5% (but almost always the latter), NPL between 2% and 7%, KORWiN between 2% and 6%.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Polling update... PiS between 44% and 34%, PO between 30% and 21%, ZL between 12% and 5%, .N between 8% and 5%, K'15 between 7% and 4%, PSL between 6% and 4%, KORWiN between 5% and 2%, Razem between 3% and 0%.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm not sure if the SLD can be honestly described as anything other than a party of ex-PZPR functionaries for ex-PZPR functionaries. Their last government was to the right of the PiS dominated one that replaced it on basically everything not connected to nationalism.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Do you have a link to the updated count for the main event?

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The UK vote will be younger so the new parties will all get a boost.

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Results from the UK (c. 54k cast, so thats a pretty small share of the Polish community but whatevers)...

Kukiz 24%, PiS 22.9%, KORWiN 20%, PO 14.9%, N 7.9%, Razem 5.3%, ZL 4.3%, PSL 0.3%

Compare to the overall figures of...

PiS 37.6%, PO 24.1%, Kukiz 8.8%, N 7.6%, ZL 7.5%, PSL 5.1%, KORWiN 4.7%, Razem 3.6%

Compare to the figures for the United States of... well... PiS 73% and I'll leave it at that. These parts of the diaspora are not alike.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Figures for Canada were similar to the US: 69.8% PiS. I suspect that in all cases there's also the issue of who has gone to the trouble (is it much trouble?) of registering to vote abroad.

Votes cast by country for the top ten...

1. Britain (54,460)
2. USA (24,856)
3. Germany (19,875)
4. Ireland (9,000)
5. Norway (7,472)
6. Belgium (7,436)
7. France (6,740)
8. Netherlands (5,835)
9. Canada (4,587)
10. Sweden (4,080)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, it was (is) a typical border region with centuries of intermingling and much ethnic confusion - have a look at the names on the German Minority list, and not just the surnames either - and no Confessional differences between the different ethnicities either (i.e. pretty much everyone was Catholic). It was decided that though they spoke German they were ethnically Polish and that therefore they were fine to stay so long as they declared their ethnic status as Polish and swore allegiance to the state.

An interesting little psephlogical-historical detail that is probably not directly relevant is that (unusually for somewhere east of the Oder-Neisse line) the area had a substantial KPD vote before 1933.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Incompetently.