Poland election - October 25 2015

[politicus]

Did not know Poland had become a federation..

[politicus]

Currently looking like a PiS landslide.

If you take the Estymator poll from yesterday they would get an absolute majority if SLD and PSL end up below the threshold:


PO 28%    
PiS 43%    
SLD 5%    
PSL 5%    
KORWin 2%    
Kukizs Movement 10%    
NPL 4%    
RN 2%

Link

[politicus]

Currently looking like a PiS landslide.

Uh...

Yes, it would be more of a deluge wouldn't it?

That would be a more fitting metaphor when we are talking about a party named PiS.

[politicus]

The election will be on the 25th, so the date should be corrected.

http://www.thenews.pl/1/9/Artykul/214120,General-election-on-25-October

[politicus]

One of the questions in the September 6 referendum is introducing single-member constituencies for Sejm elections. If approved would that apply to this election, or only next time

Also, why do you think Kukiz will implode? He is polling at 10% now. If he does we may see a two party parliament with just PO and PiS.

[politicus]

And about only three two parties in the Sejm is complete bullsh**t - polls ALWAYS underestimate PSL and they are always able to get to the Sejm. In current political situation they are unsinkable unless there will be some huge, really huge affair.

Why? Just because people end up selecting them as the least bad/default option?

[politicus]

A lot of people have interest to keep them in parliament, county-level Poland is in many regions connected to that party (PSL have opinion of nepotism based party, that is why I like them - family first!) and in consequence they have support mainly on villages. Also PSL is staunch defender of separate social security system for farmers which gives few privileges to them in comparison with the rest of population and as long as they fulfill their "mission" people would vote them just to defend their interests. So I don't think that people vote for them as for lesser evil
Other things: polls made by phonecall methods statistically have bigger chance to make polls based on more urban population than rural population. Other thing that people often don't say that they will vote on PSL.

1) I know about them being a clientilistic party, but that should not in itself lead to underpolling.

2) How large a share of rural Poles do not have phones? (I would have thought the rural/urban difference on this was marginal by now).

3) "People often don't say that they will vote on PSL" Again, why?

[politicus]

Kukicz is rising again according to two new polls, but they differ vastly on KPL (5% and 1% respectively) and SDL/left wing. One has the new leftist alliance United Left/Zjednoczona Lewica (ZL) on 7%, the other SDL below the threshold at a mere 3%. PO back on the level it had a month ago with 23%.

http://300polityka.pl/news/2015/07/16/zjednoczona-lewica-silniejsza-10-punktow-przewagi-pis-nad-po-w-sondazu-mb-dla-faktow-tvn/

http://polska.newsweek.pl/sondaz-parlamentarny-trzy-partie-w-sejmie-i-niska-frekwencja,artykuly,367005,1.html

[politicus]

I highly recommend to abbreviate name Zjednoczona Lewica to ZLew which can be translated into "sink/basin" - fits this coalition really well.

About the polls:

Polling firms in Poland have different methodologies so it's best to compare only previous polls conducted by this particular firm:

Month ago Kukiz had 24% in polls by this polling company but probably stabilization and now little rise still can be too little for him. But we will see.
http://www4.rp.pl/Polityka/307209915-Sondaz-PiS-na-czele-topnieje-poparcie-dla-Kukiza.html
Yesterday published poll by Rzeczpospolita newspaper made by IBRiS:
PiS – 35 proc., PO – 24, Ruch Kukiza – 13, Nowoczesna.pl - 6, PSL/SLD under 5%

From other news:

Radek Sikorski said that he would not run in the elections.

Yay.

Which one of them?

[politicus]

Pretty crazy poll from GfK Polonia. Gotta be an outlier.
 
PiS 47%
PO 30%
Kukiz 10,5%  
--------
PSL 3,7%
KORWiN 2,2%
ZL (United Left) 1,1%  
NPL 1%  

[politicus]

Polls in Poland are useless. That is why I do not post them in this topic. But maybe I will write something about smaller parties which have plans to participate in the elections if anybody is interested. This is more interesting than PO vs PiS struggle.

It was the small party results that were crazy in that one. They bounce back and forth. NPL from 1 to 6%, ZL/SLD swings almost as much. So yeah Polish pollsters must be pretty bad.

[politicus]

Polls in Poland are useless. That is why I do not post them in this topic. But maybe I will write something about smaller parties which have plans to participate in the elections if anybody is interested. This is more interesting than PO vs PiS struggle.

Please do. I'm very interested in this.

Yeah, since Kal's thread about Polish politics was somehow deleted there's a void to be filled.

[politicus]

A recent poll

http://ewybory.eu/sonda-uliczna-09-08-2015/

Polls are regularly uploaded to the Wiki page, but given the low quality of Polish polls they are hardly worth discussing (they are ridiculously volatile).

[politicus]

Besides leftists not likiing all right wing elections I think the other main reason we do not talk about it is unrealiable polls. When there are no (credible) poll changes to discuss there are less interest.

[politicus]

all right wing elections

And I forgot:

what?

Elections with no centre-left alternative.

[politicus]

Main parties are rather not right-wing, Civic Platform is centre and during this campaign they position themselves sometimes even on centre-left. Polls in Poland are maybe not reliable but there is positive trend for United Left and they had chances to get more votes than they deserve - even 10%. How is it right-wing elections?

Right wing is a convenient shorthand. Like calling a SocDem party left wing.

Both major Polish parties are Conservative (in different ways) by Western standards. That does not appeal to forum leftists and Liberals.

[politicus]

Good news for Polish left wing politics - Polska Partia Pracy (PPP) joined Zjednoczona Lewica coalition and resigned from taking part in elections solo. So shortly before end of bringing signatures to the regional electoral commissions Zjednoczona Lewica got support of virtual party which is supported by strong/average trade union. I think we can say that 10% for left now is almost sure.

There was a poll giving them 15%. (knowing we distrust Polish polls, but still noticeable).

What is the background of PPP?

[politicus]

To the Poles: Poland ended up supporting refugee quotas despite the governments declared intention to vote "no". How much does that help PiS?

[politicus]

Okay, I would have thought it would block POs last hope of getting (certain groups of) swing voters to return.

When POs voters are pro-quotas fear of not being able to get swing voters back would seem the most logical reason for them to be against quotas until the very end (they apparently only yielded to German pressure shortly before the vote).