2018 elections if GOP wins White House

[Bojack Horseman]

So let's suppose that if Jeb Bush or some other Republican wins the White House in 2018, how would the midterms be for Democrats, especially with the current House districts? Would the extremism and hate coming from the Republicans yield a 2006-style result? Or would it be a 1998-type undertow?

[ElectionsGuy]

I think it depends on two main things.

 - If the Republican is popular or unpopular
 - If the Democrats can fix their midterm turnout problem.

If Democrats can fix their turnout problem and the Republican is unpopular, they can have very limited losses (net 1 or 2 losses), if they do one of those they can limit their losses to 3 or 4. Worst case scenario, the Republican is popular and the 2018 election is like 2002, more favorable to the incumbent party. Still, we haven't seen that since... 2002. In any case, even if Democrats pick up the Senate in 2016, it clearly looks the Republicans will take it back in 2018.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

I would think that it's a bloodbath for Republicans in the governorships (losing IL, WI, IA, MI, OH, FL, MD, NV, and maybe KS, MA, and AZ if the wave is big enough), and gain 1-2 Senate seats (probably IN and MO) and losing a decent chunk of House seats, potentially enough to flip the chamber (as by the end of the decade gerrymanders tend to become less effective or even outright collapse, like with PA in '06/'08).

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Donnelly is pretty much dead no matter what, and the house is probably Safe R due to gerrymandering. The rest depends on turnout and the popularity of the republican president.

[CapoteMonster]

The dems will definitely gain quite a few governor's seats in this scenario but I think the GOP would gain senate seats since I believe a Republican president wouldn't do anything politically suicidal unless they're a true believer like Cruz or Huckabee.

[Bojack Horseman]

The dems will definitely gain quite a few governor's seats in this scenario but I think the GOP would gain senate seats since I believe a Republican president wouldn't do anything politically suicidal unless they're a true believer like Cruz or Huckabee.

Define politically suicidal for a Republican. As we saw in 2010, political suicide for Barack Obama was becoming President. I honestly think that what we've seen in North Carolina the past four years is a good example of what a Republican trifecta would look like at the federal level. A rabid, wild-eyed, right-wing Congress with Jeb Bush vetoing his own party's bills to try and save face.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The dems will definitely gain quite a few governor's seats in this scenario but I think the GOP would gain senate seats since I believe a Republican president wouldn't do anything politically suicidal unless they're a true believer like Cruz or Huckabee.

Define politically suicidal for a Republican. As we saw in 2010, political suicide for Barack Obama was becoming President. I honestly think that what we've seen in North Carolina the past four years is a good example of what a Republican trifecta would look like at the federal level. A rabid, wild-eyed, right-wing Congress with Jeb Bush vetoing his own party's bills to try and save face.

Remember, Obama rammed through a controversial health care plan and economic stimulus before the 2010 elections with essentially no republican support, and had high unemployment levels to defend - that, along with a natural "reversion to the mean" from 2008, was what made 2010 so bad. If Obama was in a neutral economic climate his first couple years and didn't pass ObamaCare, I imagine 2010 wouldn't have been nearly as bad - probably a loss of 20 or so house seats and 3 senate seats, mostly due to a reversion to the mean from 2008.

[CapoteMonster]

The dems will definitely gain quite a few governor's seats in this scenario but I think the GOP would gain senate seats since I believe a Republican president wouldn't do anything politically suicidal unless they're a true believer like Cruz or Huckabee.

Define politically suicidal for a Republican. As we saw in 2010, political suicide for Barack Obama was becoming President. I honestly think that what we've seen in North Carolina the past four years is a good example of what a Republican trifecta would look like at the federal level. A rabid, wild-eyed, right-wing Congress with Jeb Bush vetoing his own party's bills to try and save face.

Passing a national RFRA, invading Iran, blanket repeal of ACA, privatizing social security, banning Common Core, passing SOPA etc. Really I think it would be hard for Democrats to gain senate seats even if the pubs did 1 or 2 things like that since their defending so many more seats than the GOP is.

[Xing]

Assuming that Bush isn't terribly popular, Republicans will get massacred in governor's races. I'd expect FL, IL, ME, MD, MA, MI, NM, OH, and WI to be favored for Democrats, and IA, KS, NV, and possibly GA to be competitive. In the senate, Republicans could still gain a couple of seats, but probably not more than 2 or 3. If it were a Democratic wave, though, I'd expect them to either break even, or lose 1 to 2 seats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems in any scenario will lose Donnelly for sure

Dems will net IL, MI, NV, NM govs

And lose probably CO.

[windjammer]

D+2 Democrats win Nevada and Arizona

[Xing]

You guys are way too certain about Donnelly losing. Sure, he'd be an underdog in a neutral to bad year for Democrats, but there's no way he'd be gone for sure in a good year.

-Indiana is not Utah. Democrats can win under the right circumstances. Why did Evan Bayh win re-election in 2004 (not such a good year for Dems)? Why did Pence come so close to losing in 2012, and why do people even entertain the thought that he could lose in 2016?

-Sure, Donnelly beat a joke candidate. So did Heitkamp. In fact, she did by much less, in a state that is even less hospitable to Democrats. Why does she magically have a decent chance of getting re-elected? Is she really more "moderate" than Donnelly? Does that really matter so much?

Those who say that Donnelly is doomed even though he's not up for re-election in 2018, and yet claim that Kirk has near even chances of getting re-elected next year have a bit of explaning to do.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

You guys are way too certain about Donnelly losing. Sure, he'd be an underdog in a neutral to bad year for Democrats, but there's no way he'd be gone for sure in a good year.

-Indiana is not Utah. Democrats can win under the right circumstances. Why did Evan Bayh win re-election in 2004 (not such a good year for Dems)? Why did Pence come so close to losing in 2012, and why do people even entertain the thought that he could lose in 2016?

-Sure, Donnelly beat a joke candidate. So did Heitkamp. In fact, she did by much less, in a state that is even less hospitable to Democrats. Why does she magically have a decent chance of getting re-elected? Is she really more "moderate" than Donnelly? Does that really matter so much?

Those who say that Donnelly is doomed even though he's not up for re-election in 2018, and yet claim that Kirk has near even chances of getting re-elected next year have a bit of explaning to do.

1. Evan Bayh was to Indiana what Phil Bredesen was to Tennessee. A politician whose popularity allows him to elude a state's political lean. Donnelly isn't known for being popular.

2. Gubernatorial races are different than Senate races. In a governor's race, you can portray yourself as a 'check' on the legislature, and you can significantly distance yourself from your party before and during your term without risking being punished for it by leadership. You can't do that in a Senate race. Also, there is little significance to which party has the gubernatorial majority, so there is no 'coming home' effect based on people reelecting an unpopular incumbent to allow their preferred party to control the senate. This means you can persuade people more easily that their dislike of the incumbent means it's time to try something new.

3. Richard Mourdock was objectively more of a joke candidate than Rick Berg, and Berg didn't go around saying that "God wanted rape to happen!" like Mourdock did. So Heitkamp's win was more of a miracle than Donnelly's was. Also, Heitkamp is in a state where a small dollar, grassroots campaign can be extremely effective due to the state's very low population, and unlike Donnelly, was elected to statewide office at a point before her Senate run. (Attorney General).

[windjammer]

Donnelly is a good campaigner. He represented one of the most conservative districts where the incumbent voted for Obamacare after 2010. I agree he will most likely lose than win if this is a neutral year/republican year. But he has political skills.

[smoltchanov]

Well. i am, obviously, stand for Donnelly and McCaskill in these races, especially when states (as happened with Missouri and Indiana in 2012) tend to supply Republican candidates, which i can only characterize as patented idiots  (Akin and Mourdock). But both races slightly lean Republican for me now, because of general republican leaning of these states. Of course it's not any sort of guarantee, and everything may change, but i simply doubt that Republicans will run similar idiots again in 2018.This is, usually, a "one-time wonder"

[windjammer]

Donnelly is a good campaigner. He represented one of the most conservative districts where the incumbent voted for Obamacare after 2010. I agree he will most likely lose than win if this is a neutral year/republican year. But he has political skills.

Travis Childers, Alison Grimes, Joe Dorman, Kay Hagan, Scott Brown, etc. Running a strong campaign often isn't enough these days.

Of course,
But this is annoying to read comments implying that Donnelly is doomed even with a republican president.

[Skill and Chance]

The dems will definitely gain quite a few governor's seats in this scenario but I think the GOP would gain senate seats since I believe a Republican president wouldn't do anything politically suicidal unless they're a true believer like Cruz or Huckabee.

Define politically suicidal for a Republican. As we saw in 2010, political suicide for Barack Obama was becoming President. I honestly think that what we've seen in North Carolina the past four years is a good example of what a Republican trifecta would look like at the federal level. A rabid, wild-eyed, right-wing Congress with Jeb Bush vetoing his own party's bills to try and save face.

Passing a national RFRA, invading Iran, blanket repeal of ACA, privatizing social security, banning Common Core, passing SOPA etc. Really I think it would be hard for Democrats to gain senate seats even if the pubs did 1 or 2 things like that since their defending so many more seats than the GOP is.

#1 and #3 together might be enough to drive a Dem wave, and would almost certainly fix the Dem midterm turnout problem.  #2 would if anything help the incumbent party due to the rally around the flag, as we saw in 2002.  Now if it turned ugly (and what intervention in the Middle East in US history hasn't?), it could result in a Dem wave in 2020 or 2022.  However, if they actually followed through on #3, that would flip the House and wipe out the Obama state R governors on its own IMO.  If they turn off white seniors, Dem turnout doesn't even matter.

I don't see Common Core or SOPA (outside of already very Dem tech areas) having legs with the electorate either way.  If they actually abolished the Department of Education, that would turn a lot of voters off, though.  Same with abolishing EPA or HUD.

[Xing]

Donnelly is a good campaigner. He represented one of the most conservative districts where the incumbent voted for Obamacare after 2010. I agree he will most likely lose than win if this is a neutral year/republican year. But he has political skills.

Travis Childers, Alison Grimes, Joe Dorman, Kay Hagan, Scott Brown, etc. Running a strong campaign often isn't enough these days.

Of course,
But this is annoying to read comments implying that Donnelly is doomed even with a republican president.

Sure, no one is saying that he is TOTALLY doomed. Anything can happen. Ron Johnson could win reelection next year, who knows.

No one is calling the WI Senate race anything more than Lean D, and some people still consider it a toss-up. Johnson already has a clear opponent (one who isn't a joke), and he's made no effort to moderate. Donnelly has no clear opponent, this race is more than three years out, and he has been much more moderate than the average Democratic senator, though he's no Manchin. By the same token, I don't think it makes sense to call this race anything other than Lean R, and I'd call it a Toss-up if Republicans win the WH in 2016.

Wulfric made some decent points, but Indiana is not as Republican-leaning as Tennessee (where I don't think any Democrat could win), and who's to say that Donnelly can't build a coalition in the same way that Bayh did? Berg wasn't as much of a joke as Mourdock, but if Heitkamp's win was a miracle, why would it happen again in 2018? There are some strongly Democratic leaning areas of Indiana, where a GOTV effort can prove crucial. A path to victory for a Democrat in North Dakota is much more narrow, even if there are fewer voters that need to be swayed.

[Skill and Chance]

Donnelly is a good campaigner. He represented one of the most conservative districts where the incumbent voted for Obamacare after 2010. I agree he will most likely lose than win if this is a neutral year/republican year. But he has political skills.

Travis Childers, Alison Grimes, Joe Dorman, Kay Hagan, Scott Brown, etc. Running a strong campaign often isn't enough these days.

Of course,
But this is annoying to read comments implying that Donnelly is doomed even with a republican president.

Sure, no one is saying that he is TOTALLY doomed. Anything can happen. Ron Johnson could win reelection next year, who knows.

No one is calling the WI Senate race anything more than Lean D, and some people still consider it a toss-up. Johnson already has a clear opponent (one who isn't a joke), and he's made no effort to moderate. Donnelly has no clear opponent, this race is more than three years out, and he has been much more moderate than the average Democratic senator, though he's no Manchin. By the same token, I don't think it makes sense to call this race anything other than Lean R, and I'd call it a Toss-up if Republicans win the WH in 2016.

Wulfric made some decent points, but Indiana is not as Republican-leaning as Tennessee (where I don't think any Democrat could win), and who's to say that Donnelly can't build a coalition in the same way that Bayh did? Berg wasn't as much of a joke as Mourdock, but if Heitkamp's win was a miracle, why would it happen again in 2018? There are some strongly Democratic leaning areas of Indiana, where a GOTV effort can prove crucial. A path to victory for a Democrat in North Dakota is much more narrow, even if there are fewer voters that need to be swayed.

ND will really come down to whether oil is still down in 2018 and who they credit/blame for it under a fully R-controlled government.

[SATW]

Rubio hasnt been "vocal about war", he's been vocal about opposing appeasement and  joke foreign policy.

[pbrower2a]

Republicans lose the midterm advantage that they had in 2010 and 2014. Many House seats that the Republicans won in 2010 become vulnerable if the President is at all unpopular. An R+5 seat will be vulnerable with an unpopular Republican President -- maybe someone who takes extreme positions.

Count on Democratic-friendly media turning upon the Republican President, especially if the President is seen as extreme. What Republican-leaning media did to Obama, Democrats will do to a Republican President.

To the Republicans' advantage, there just aren't many R Senate seats in play. Democrats would have to get their gains in the South, which implies reversing a 40-year trend quickly.

The Republicans really don't have a New Ronald Reagan capable of winning over 'shaky' Democrats. 

[Gass3268]

Rubio hasnt been "vocal about war", he's been vocal about opposing appeasement and  joke foreign policy.

It's the same thing.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Oh, and tell me again how the national environment impacts these governors races: That's why Mike Beebe lost in 2010, Charlie Crist lost in 2006, Tom Corbett and Sean Parnell won in 2014, and Dave Freudenthal got crushed in 2002, etc. etc.  

It may not make much sense, but it's true. Many GOP governors would have lost reelection in 2014 had Romney won. Many Democratic governors would have lost in 2006 had Kerry won.

Sure, there's always some exceptions...Corbett was just so unpopular even an unpopular Democrat in the White House couldn't save him.

[Nyvin]

Republicans lose the midterm advantage that they had in 2010 and 2014. Many House seats that the Republicans won in 2010 become vulnerable if the President is at all unpopular. An R+5 seat will be vulnerable with an unpopular Republican President -- maybe someone who takes extreme positions.

Count on Democratic-friendly media turning upon the Republican President, especially if the President is seen as extreme. What Republican-leaning media did to Obama, Democrats will do to a Republican President.

To the Republicans' advantage, there just aren't many R Senate seats in play. Democrats would have to get their gains in the South, which implies reversing a 40-year trend quickly.

The Republicans really don't have a New Ronald Reagan capable of winning over 'shaky' Democrats. 

I frankly think the Democrats are doomed to become an overwhelmingly urban party,  meaning the House will likely be out of reach for most of the near term future.   The good news is the presidency and statewide elections will become easier and easier over time, but anything that involves legislative maps is bad news for them.    Winning a district by 90/10 is the same as winning one 55/45. 

[Mister Mets]

Republicans would make some gains in the Senate, but that's mainly because of the number of seats Democrats are defending.

I'd expect Democrats to flip a few house seats.

A Republican President would need underwater approval ratings to lose the House, and that point it's possible Democrats will keep all the Senate seats.