What will change from 2012 to 2016

[NeverAgain]

It all depends on who the candidates are, but from averages and patterns that you have seen what are your thoughts? 11 choices for 11 states.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All states remain roughly the same, NH, OH and Ia tilts more Dem than nation as whole. NC moves right, but remains a Battleground.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pa will not trend GOP.

But Dems should be able to win OH and Ia in addition to Va.

FL is a pure tossup too, since Cold War with Cuba is over☺

[Free Bird]

Pa will not trend GOP.

But Dems should be able to win OH and Ia in addition to Va.

FL is a pure tossup too, since Cold War with Cuba is over☺

Yes it is

Proof?

If a popular former governor or popular sitting Senator is the nominee, why would you guys even contest it?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL isnt in the bag, Jeb suppose to have it locked down.

But, thats why Julian Castro should be picked, he can take away Jeb's natural advantage with Latinos. Until then, VP's are chosen, FL remains a mystery.

Bill Nelson surely thinks Clinton can win FL.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cubans are the only vote down there, Obama did fairly decent job in FL with no natural advantage in FL aside from Blk vote.

But Dems can certainly excell in NV with the Mexican vote and NM, the two states Dems need.

[DS0816]

Re: What will change from 2012 to 2016

The popular-vote percentage margin and the Electoral College results.

I don't anticipate the shift to be a 0.00 percentage-margin status quo.

And, given the fact that historically there has never been a duplicated electoral map (for two separate elections), I also don't anticipate a status quo with that result for Election 2016.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah the 272 map is clearly Clinton's most likely option now, but that can change; rather quickly.

[NeverAgain]

Re: What will change from 2012 to 2016

The popular-vote percentage margin and the Electoral College results.

I don't anticipate the shift to be a 0.00 percentage-margin status quo.

And, given the fact that historically there has never been a duplicated electoral map (for two separate elections), I also don't anticipate a status quo with that result for Election 2016.

I probably should have worded my title better. How Will 2012 Swing States trend in this upcoming election (2016)?

[DS0816]

Re: What will change from 2012 to 2016

The popular-vote percentage margin and the Electoral College results.

I don't anticipate the shift to be a 0.00 percentage-margin status quo.

And, given the fact that historically there has never been a duplicated electoral map (for two separate elections), I also don't anticipate a status quo with that result for Election 2016.

I probably should have worded my title better. How Will 2012 Swing States trend in this upcoming election (2016)?

They'll trend with the nation.

(And you did fine with your wording.)

[Mister Mets]

I'm reasonably sure each of the swing states will go more Republican.

There may be a shift towards Democrats in states that don't matter (West Virginia, Arkansas, etc.)

[OSR stands with Israel]

There will be some changes but Republicans will lose unless they nominate John Kasich

[Del Tachi]

All states swing towards the GOP.  Jeb Bush wins over HRC 285-253

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There wont be no duplicate map for sure now. And OH will probably lose its Bellweather status. As Hickenlooper or Castro are picked as VPs, as Clinton sure up the Latino states of CO, NV and Catholic state of Pa, enroute to 272-266 triumph.😍
 

[Green Line]

Pennsylvania will continue trending toward the GOP just like it has been for the last couple elections.  Also Colorado will go towards teh gop because hillary does not play well there with the libertarian western cowboys.  I think Virginia and NC will continue to move towards the dems because of the increasing minority populations.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bennet will get the highest vote percentage than most Dems running. And Hickenlooper won in a GOP wave. Dems are by no means gonna concede Latino enriched CO.

[5280]

Bennet will get the highest vote percentage than most Dems running. And Hickenlooper won in a GOP wave. Dems are by no means gonna concede Latino enriched CO.

I could see Bennet winning without a fight in the senate race in CO, but the Democrats losing CO in the presidential general election in 2016.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I hope that doesnt happen. But if Biden were to jump in, he can win without CO and certainly win Va.

[5280]

I hope that doesnt happen. But if Biden were to jump in, he can win without CO and certainly win Va.

Biden is not going to run for president I can guarantee you that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, dont forget the QU was off 3-4 pts from the Cory Gardner v Udall race, and he came close to winning.

You can look at QU polling for your source for CO polls and I will rely on PPP.

[ElectionsGuy]

Further D: VA
Roughly Same: FL, IA, NH, NV, WI
Further R: CO, MI, NC, OH, PA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Jeb is leading in Va in latest QU poll

Stay the same CO, Pa and Ia

Moving right OH

[Kingpoleon]

Every state except VA and NH trends to the GOP. Not sure about WI.

Major swing states after 2016: FL, OH, PA
Lean D status after 2016: NH, VA, WI

CO becomes a solid R state lolol.

I think Iowa stays roughly the same and NH trends GOP.

Otherwise, though, I agree.

[°Leprechaun]

Too soon for an accurate prediction but I said FL more R and NV more D and the rest the same.

My guess before the 2012 was FL would go Romney, but I got all the remaining states correct, not a very difficult election to predict.

[Clark Kent]

A quick prediction:

This is assuming a Clinton vs. Bush/Rubio matchup.