The New Iowa Duo

[Free Bird]

Let's say Grassley changes his mind and retires, or retires as planned in 2022. Wouldn't it be ironic if Buck Brinkley comes back and wins HIS seat and he and Ernst become Iowa's new senate duo for many years to come? Is this even conceivable? Sure would be interesting to see the seats exactly reverse.

[moderatevoter]

Last I heard, Bruce Braley moved to Denver. Maybe he and Mark Udall can start a consulting firm.

[Xing]

The fact that Braley lost to someone like Ernst, and by so much probably means that Iowa Dems will never trust him again. I doubt Ernst is the next Grassley. She's going to have quite a re-election battle on her hands in 2020.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Let's say Grassley changes his mind and retires, or retires as planned in 2022. Wouldn't it be ironic if Buck Brinkley comes back and wins HIS seat and he and Ernst become Iowa's new senate duo for many years to come? Is this even conceivable? Sure would be interesting to see the seats exactly reverse.

There's no one currently in Iowa on Grassley and Harkin's level for two people other than Grassley and Harkin to hold the seats for decades.

[Nyvin]

I would be utterly shocked if Ernst wins re-election in 2020.      Not just saying that as a liberal either.

[Free Bird]

I would be utterly shocked if Ernst wins re-election in 2020.      Not just saying that as a liberal either.

Eeeehh I don't know. Iowa doesn't really like kicking people out.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Braley mistake in the campaign wasnt attacking Ernst, but attacking Grassley, concerning not having a law degree.

Should dems lose power again in 2018, Cory Gardner and Ernst will be targetted once again.

[Maxwell]

I would be utterly shocked if Ernst wins re-election in 2020.      Not just saying that as a liberal either.

I would be utterly shocked if Tillis wins re-election in 2020. He has little political talent and was dragged into office thanks to the wave. Ernst, however, has legitimate political talent, and would've won without the wave (because of her awful opponent, sure).

[Xing]

I would be utterly shocked if Ernst wins re-election in 2020.      Not just saying that as a liberal either.

Eeeehh I don't know. Iowa doesn't really like kicking people out.

Neither does Alaska, but that didn't help Begich or Parnell.

[Free Bird]

I would be utterly shocked if Ernst wins re-election in 2020.      Not just saying that as a liberal either.

Eeeehh I don't know. Iowa doesn't really like kicking people out.

Neither does Alaska, but that didn't help Begich or Parnell.

I beg to differ. Begich was taken out with a wave upon waves in a solidly red state otherwise after winning with a perfect luck streak against an out of touch old man, and Walker had bipartisan support to sap away the Republican base, and even then only barely won. Murkowski always has to fight tooth and nail in her primaries, her dad lost his in 2006, and Young just kills it in any election he does because to Alaskans, he has done nothing wrong, unlike Stevens.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The reason why Sullivan, Young and Murkowski have won in large part, due to absense of Sarah Palin and AK tea party.

Sullivan will lose reelection should Begich try to reclaim his seat.

[Free Bird]

The reason why Sullivan, Young and Murkowski have won in large part, due to absense of Sarah Palin and AK tea party.

Sullivan will lose reelection should Begich try to reclaim his seat.

Begich only won because of a corruption and the biggest Democratic wave in years. Murkowski's first primary was before Palin showed up, and Young FAR predates her.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

No, Billy Bomdoodle's career is dead in the water. It's not like IOwa Dems are so moribund they would be forced to put up a proven failure twice ...

[Xing]

I would be utterly shocked if Ernst wins re-election in 2020.      Not just saying that as a liberal either.

Eeeehh I don't know. Iowa doesn't really like kicking people out.

Neither does Alaska, but that didn't help Begich or Parnell.

I beg to differ. Begich was taken out with a wave upon waves in a solidly red state otherwise after winning with a perfect luck streak against an out of touch old man, and Walker had bipartisan support to sap away the Republican base, and even then only barely won. Murkowski always has to fight tooth and nail in her primaries, her dad lost his in 2006, and Young just kills it in any election he does because to Alaskans, he has done nothing wrong, unlike Stevens.

Right, it does depend on circumstances. Ernst won in a Republican wave year against a Democrat who dug his own grave. I doubt she'll be that lucky in 2020, so it stands to reason that she'll be in for a fight. (Not saying that she'll lose for sure, but it'll probably be competitive) I'm not sure Iowa really has an aversion to kicking out incumbents. I think the fact that Grassley and Harkin never lost re-election says more about them than it does about Iowa.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The reason why Sullivan, Young and Murkowski have won in large part, due to absense of Sarah Palin and AK tea party.

Sullivan will lose reelection should Begich try to reclaim his seat.

Begich only won because of a corruption and the biggest Democratic wave in years. Murkowski's first primary was before Palin showed up, and Young FAR predates her.

Miller certainly would have handed Begich a victory in 2014 and McAdams who was Begich like, didnt have the money to win in 2010, when Miller, tea partier ran.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I would be utterly shocked if Ernst wins re-election in 2020.      Not just saying that as a liberal either.

I would be utterly shocked if Tillis wins re-election in 2020. He has little political talent and was dragged into office thanks to the wave. Ernst, however, has legitimate political talent, and would've won without the wave (because of her awful opponent, sure).

No, she really doesn't.  She'd have lost in 2014 if she weren't running against Benedict Bloberta.

[Maxwell]

I would be utterly shocked if Ernst wins re-election in 2020.      Not just saying that as a liberal either.

I would be utterly shocked if Tillis wins re-election in 2020. He has little political talent and was dragged into office thanks to the wave. Ernst, however, has legitimate political talent, and would've won without the wave (because of her awful opponent, sure).

No, she really doesn't.  She'd have lost in 2014 if she weren't running against Benedict Bloberta.

Really? A nearly 10% victory in a swing state? She's a solid debater, her ads (which, I admit, thought were awful when they first came out) worked, and managed to win despite being painted as a very very far right conservative and not really shying away from that label. People mention Cotton and Gardner as the two major campaigns that were good from 2014, and I agree with that assessment, but Ernst also ran a very strong campaign. I'm not saying she's unbeatable, absolutely she's beatable. But unlike some GOP incumbents from 2014, I think it's a Toss-Up, not an uphill battle, especially since Iowa is a state with multiple officers with 4+ terms in office.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I would be utterly shocked if Ernst wins re-election in 2020.      Not just saying that as a liberal either.

I would be utterly shocked if Tillis wins re-election in 2020. He has little political talent and was dragged into office thanks to the wave. Ernst, however, has legitimate political talent, and would've won without the wave (because of her awful opponent, sure).

No, she really doesn't.  She'd have lost in 2014 if she weren't running against Benedict Bloberta.

Really? A nearly 10% victory in a swing state? She's a solid debater, her ads (which, I admit, thought were awful when they first came out) worked, and managed to win despite being painted as a very very far right conservative and not really shying away from that label. People mention Cotton and Gardner as the two major campaigns that were good from 2014, and I agree with that assessment, but Ernst also ran a very strong campaign. I'm not saying she's unbeatable, absolutely she's beatable. But unlike some GOP incumbents from 2014, I think it's a Toss-Up, not an uphill battle, especially since Iowa is a state with multiple officers with 4+ terms in office.

I agree that it is a toss up, I just hear a lot of Republicans act like she's Chuck Grassley 2.0 and that's ridiculous.  And I'd argue she really didn't run that strong a campaign.

[Maxwell]

I would be utterly shocked if Ernst wins re-election in 2020.      Not just saying that as a liberal either.

I would be utterly shocked if Tillis wins re-election in 2020. He has little political talent and was dragged into office thanks to the wave. Ernst, however, has legitimate political talent, and would've won without the wave (because of her awful opponent, sure).

No, she really doesn't.  She'd have lost in 2014 if she weren't running against Benedict Bloberta.

Really? A nearly 10% victory in a swing state? She's a solid debater, her ads (which, I admit, thought were awful when they first came out) worked, and managed to win despite being painted as a very very far right conservative and not really shying away from that label. People mention Cotton and Gardner as the two major campaigns that were good from 2014, and I agree with that assessment, but Ernst also ran a very strong campaign. I'm not saying she's unbeatable, absolutely she's beatable. But unlike some GOP incumbents from 2014, I think it's a Toss-Up, not an uphill battle, especially since Iowa is a state with multiple officers with 4+ terms in office.

I agree that it is a toss up, I just hear a lot of Republicans act like she's Chuck Grassley 2.0 and that's ridiculous.  And I'd argue she really didn't run that strong a campaign.

I do agree, but I will point out that Chuck Grassley is fairly conservative and hasn't ever really backed away from that, and yet he's won so many times because of his image.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I would be utterly shocked if Ernst wins re-election in 2020.      Not just saying that as a liberal either.

I would be utterly shocked if Tillis wins re-election in 2020. He has little political talent and was dragged into office thanks to the wave. Ernst, however, has legitimate political talent, and would've won without the wave (because of her awful opponent, sure).

No, she really doesn't.  She'd have lost in 2014 if she weren't running against Benedict Bloberta.

Really? A nearly 10% victory in a swing state? She's a solid debater, her ads (which, I admit, thought were awful when they first came out) worked, and managed to win despite being painted as a very very far right conservative and not really shying away from that label. People mention Cotton and Gardner as the two major campaigns that were good from 2014, and I agree with that assessment, but Ernst also ran a very strong campaign. I'm not saying she's unbeatable, absolutely she's beatable. But unlike some GOP incumbents from 2014, I think it's a Toss-Up, not an uphill battle, especially since Iowa is a state with multiple officers with 4+ terms in office.

I agree that it is a toss up, I just hear a lot of Republicans act like she's Chuck Grassley 2.0 and that's ridiculous.  And I'd argue she really didn't run that strong a campaign.

I do agree, but I will point out that Chuck Grassley is fairly conservative and hasn't ever really backed away from that, and yet he's won so many times because of his image.

True, but he also never faced tough opposition after his first race.

[PAK Man]

I don't want to say Democrats have been afraid to challenge Grassley, but Harkin always got serious challengers except in 2008 (previously he had been challenged by Republican congressmen who actually came really close to unseating him every time). There's something about Grassley that makes Democrats not want to go after him, or at least serious Democrats.

Though interestingly, 2010 was the first time since he first won in 1980 that Grassley didn't win every county in the state. Roxanne Conlin won Johnson County, which is where the University of Iowa is located.

I don't think it's that Iowa likes keeping their incumbents around; it's just that the incumbents are either extremely popular (Grassley, Latham) or manage to hold on by close margins (Loebsack is almost always seriously challenged but he holds on every time).

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

I would be utterly shocked if Ernst wins re-election in 2020.      Not just saying that as a liberal either.

Eeeehh I don't know. Iowa doesn't really like kicking people out.

Sen. Jack Miller (R-IA) says "hi" from 1972
Sen. Dick Clark (D-IA) says "hi" from 1978
Sen. John Culver (D-IA) says "hi" from 1980
Sen. Roger Jepsen (R-IA) says "hi" from 1984
Gov. Chet Culver (D-IA) says  "hi" from 2010

The list of Representatives defeated for reelection in Iowa is a pretty long list, granting that some of those defeats came as a result of reapportionment after Iowa losing a seat in the House after a census.

I have always thought that Grassley was vulnerable to a Democratic challenger who was well-financed and focused on issues.  Unfortunately for the Democrats, Iowa is a state where there stable of candidates has been eroded badly.  I think that the RIGHT Democrat could possibly upset Grassley in 2016; it would be a risky way to expand the map, but Grassley is a guy who's made his share of gaffes.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I don't think it's that Iowa likes keeping their incumbents around; it's just that the incumbents are either extremely popular (Grassley, Latham) or manage to hold on by close margins (Loebsack is almost always seriously challenged but he holds on every time).

I don't know. They have the longest serving governor of any state in US history.

Note that he's the 2nd longest if you count the time George Clinton was governor of NY before the Revolutionary War ended. But he'll pass George Clinton early next year with 21 years.

[PAK Man]

I don't think it's that Iowa likes keeping their incumbents around; it's just that the incumbents are either extremely popular (Grassley, Latham) or manage to hold on by close margins (Loebsack is almost always seriously challenged but he holds on every time).

I don't know. They have the longest serving governor of any state in US history.

Note that he's the 2nd longest if you count the time George Clinton was governor of NY before the Revolutionary War ended. But he'll pass George Clinton early next year with 21 years.

Again, it goes back to Democrats being afraid to challenge him. They feel he's untouchable, so they don't even bother putting up a serious candidate, especially after his comeback in 2010.

Branstad almost lost reelection in 1986 (he only won by four points against State Sen. Majority Leader Lowell Junkins) and only won the 1994 primary (against Fred Grandy) by four points.

I can tell you that in 2014, local Democrats were not excited about Jack Hatch's candidacy. The preferred candidate, Tyler Olson, dropped out after he announced he was getting divorced. As far as I can tell, Hatch ran because nobody else would.

[Badger]

IA Dems have a pretty deep bench. Ernst will have her work cut out for her, especially in a presidential year.