Croatia parliamentary election - November 8, 2015

[PetrSokol]

new count gives 1 seat to Uspešna Hrvatska (Succesfull Croatia...)

[Halgrímur]

This is going to be interesting. Most has said they won't enter any coalition, so it will be outside support of the first minority government in Croatian history and its still an open question, who they will prefer - probably simply the "highest bidder".

Their leader Bozo Petrov (Mayor of the Dalmatian town Metkovic) is going to be the kingmaker and his price will be high.

[Halgrímur]

new count gives 1 seat to Uspešna Hrvatska (Succesfull Croatia...)

What a Succes

[PetrSokol]

There is also the question of homogenity of Most...

[PetrSokol]

Leader of Most Božo Petrov now in HRT: " New elections are cheaper than incompetent government"

[PetrSokol]

http://www.izbori.hr/140zas/rezult/1/nrezultati.html

[PetrSokol]

25 % counted:
HDZ+ 60
SDP+ 55
Most 19
IDS 4
Baandić 2
HDSSB 2
Živi zid 1

[Halgrímur]

There is also the question of homogenity of Most...

Yeah, the bridge could easily break.

[Halgrímur]

To add a bit of context to the Petrov quote from before:

Mosts main priorities are reforms of what they (and most others) see as a bloated public sector and for a better business climate.

Bozo Petrov has stated the party would support a future government if it reforms the judiciary and public administration + improve the business climate.

"For each of those reforms we would set deadlines and if deadlines were not met, we would demand a parliamentary no-confidence vote. We know that, as things stand now, we control the majority in the parliament ... A new election is much cheaper than an incapable government."

[Halgrímur]

50% counted.

Patriotic Coalition 61
Croatian is Growing 53
MOST 19  
IDS 4
HDSSB 2
MB365 2
Human Blockade 1
Successful Croatia 1

This gives 143, so incl. ex-pats.

http://izbori.hrt.hr/307553/rezultati-izbora-za-zastupnike-u-hrvatski-sabor

[Halgrímur]

It is clear that ORaH did not pass the threshold and party president Mirela Holy has already announced that she will not run for party leader again.

SDP leader Zoran Milanović was the first to address the nation and did not congratulate the relative winner HDZ.

"Croatia decided we're not returning to the old ways. Which way it will turn, we will see in the next few days. In the last four years, especially in the last few months, we have shown our humanity, that we have created an organised country that protects its citizens. I invite all those that wish to implement reforms to join us, and we don't invite them as leaders, but as equal partners. We can't do this on our own, we need partners. No conditions, we just want to talk. Now we see that MOST has emerged and they want reforms so I invite them to implement them together"

So he is still hopeful that MOST will pick him and the centre-left over HDZ.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

One would be hopeful that MOST picks the left, considering how the Croatian right is its own special brand of atrociousness...

[Halgrímur]

86.33% counted. The distance between the two alliances has shrunk from 8 to 5. Difference to last count in ().

Patriotic Coalition 60 (-1)
Croatia is Growing 55 (+2)
MOST 19 
IDS 4
HDSSB 2
MB365 1 (-1)
Human Blockade 1
Successful Croatia 1

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Wow, ORaH really collapsed from their high point. Disappointing.

[Donnie]

99.72% counted.

Patriotic Coalition 59 seats
Croatia is Growing 56
MOST 19  
IDS 3
HDSSB 2
MB365 2
Human Blockade 1
Successful Croatia 1

Can't find % for whole country.

[FredLindq]

Patriotic Coalition 59 seats
Croatia is Growing 56
MOST 19 
IDS 3
HDSSB 2
MB365 2
Human Blockade 1
Successful Croatia 1

Total 143
So I guess the diaspora is counted both not the minorities.
These were 2011:
Independent Democratic Serb Party 3
Kukuriku coalition – Croatian People's Party – Liberal Democrats – Czech and Slovak national minorities 1
Other national minority representatives 4
Allt thes supported the SDP government.

I guess that IDS, MB 365 and Successful Croatia will support SDP.
So SDP+ is 56+8+3+2+1 =70

HDZ could get support from HDSSB
So HDZ+HDSSB 61

So Bridge will be the Kingmaker if not HDZ and SDP enters a grand coalition...

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

HDZ could get support from HDSSB
So HDZ+HDSSB 61

No way, HDSSB will never make coalition with HDZ.  Last HDZ government convicted HDSSB leader Branimir Glavaš for war crimes. And about minorities, elected representatives of czech/slovakian, albanian and Roma minorities are members of SDP and HNS.

[FredLindq]

If he was convicted for war crimes under HDZ rule he was probably very guilty...

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

Definitely.  Primary court sentenced him for killing civilians in affairs "battery" and "scotch tape", then he escaped to Bosnia and Herzegovina and after that modern saga of Branimir Glavaš begins. 

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

There is also the question of homogenity of Most...

They lose already one MP,  two others are questionable.

[FredLindq]

Where did they go? To another party?

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

No, not yet. They are still "independent".

[Famous Mortimer]

SDP is reported to have the support of Istrian Democratic Assembly, the Milan Bandić party, Successful Croatia (former Soc Dem President's party), and the 8 minorities.

Also rumors that that the fascist Croatian Democratic Alliance of Slavonia and Baranja might support the SDP to spite the HDZ.

That still pust them 4 seats short of a majority though.

[Famous Mortimer]

Weird fact: Former HDZ lady Prime Minister Jadranka Kosor was a candidate for the People's Party - Reformist, part of the Successful Croatia coalition of the former Social Democrat President Ivo Josipović.

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

This saga finally ands. HDZ and Most choose prime minister who doesnt speak croatian very well.