Burma General Election - November 8, 2015

[politicus]

General elections to be held in Burma in November and even if the Generals wont be up for election it will still be pretty interesting.

A referendum (scheduled to be held in May this year) on constitutional changes that would - among other things - have allowed Aung San Suu Kyi to run for President and made it possible to amend the Constitution without the militarys consent was cancelled

The Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services appoint 25% of parliament, but the remaining 330 seats in the House of Representatives (Pyithu Hluttaw) and 168 seats in for the House of Nationalities (Amyotha Hluttaw) of the Assembly of the Union (Pyidaungsu Hluttaw) will be elected using FPTP.

Election to the regional and state parliaments will be held on the same day and possible also the constitutional referendum (but we will see about that).


Parties:

Four national parties are running.

Union Solidarity and Development (USDP) is a party of power, committed to Burmese nationalism and the economic interests of the top brass and their cronies. It was created by the junta and led by General Shwe Mann (68), former #3 in the junta and seen as one of the most reformist generals. He is their candidate for President and will be elected (unless he somehow dies first..).

National Unity Party (NUP) was formed in 1990 as an offspring of the regimes Burma Socialist Programme Party (BSPP) to contest the first democratic election - only to be beaten by the NLD. It represents military hardliners (mostly old guard Ne Win loyalists), former BSPP members, and some big business interests. So more authoritarian, xenophobic and anti minority rights than USDP. Officially also Socialist, but about as Socialist as the Chinese Communist Party is Communist.

National League for Democracy (NLD) is led by Aung San Suu Kyi (70), is in favour of democratic reforms, increased human rights and Social Democracy (members of Socialist International), but also committed to keeping the union together and Burman nationalism.

National Democratic Force (NDF) was founded in 2010 by the members of the NLD who wanted to contest the election. A lot of members later rejoined the NLD. It is officially Social Liberal and a bit more open to real autonomy for ethnic minorities than NLD. It is a small party with only 8 MPs. Party leader Dr. Than Nyein died in May last year and the new leader Toe Po is rather unknown. Will be interesting if they get swamped by NLD or stays on.

In addition there will be lots of small ethnic parties with regional strength, some of whom are considering running on a joint list as the Federal Union Party. A national federalist party based on minorities would be really interesting, but may not be allowed to run.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Intriguingly the army mused about PR, to dilute the effect of a possible NLD sweep of the FPTP seats (as occurred in the last set of by-elections) but quietly shelved them

The important thing will be the Presidential election, which is via a complicated electoral college involving the army and both Houses of Parliament. It will probably end up like Indonesia (1999 election) if we end up with a President Mann (with significant powers) with little popular mandate. Mann may be a reformer, but he is obviously not exactly trusted by Kyi's people.

Some of the key issues will be:

- the monstrosity of a constitution. Fwiw passed in such a landslide it received more votes than there are in fact voters (always a good sign!)

- whether or not the election is fair. We've seen some reports that the electoral roll may be subject to some tampering, although the by-elections that swept Kyi into parliament were judges as fair.

- the Rohingya people, who have been targeted by various populist measures by the government. The ongoing saga of the Rohingya's puts absolutely nobody in a good light - the government, the opposition and Myanmar's neighbours have all waffled.

- public services. A 2000 survey (for WHO I think) rated Myanmar's healthcare system the worst in the entire world, of the 190 countries surveyed. The "civilian" government has managed to roll back some of the worst of sanctions, but Western nations and capital are still not flowing in as of yet.

[politicus]

The important thing will be the Presidential election, which is via a complicated electoral college involving the army and both Houses of Parliament. It will probably end up like Indonesia (1999 election) if we end up with a President Mann (with significant powers) with little popular mandate. Mann may be a reformer, but he is obviously not exactly trusted by Kyi's people.

Some of the key issues will be:

- the monstrosity of a constitution. Fwiw passed in such a landslide it received more votes than there are in fact voters (always a good sign!)

- whether or not the election is fair. We've seen some reports that the electoral roll may be subject to some tampering, although the by-elections that swept Kyi into parliament were judges as fair.

- the Rohingya people, who have been targeted by various populist measures by the government. The ongoing saga of the Rohingya's puts absolutely nobody in a good light - the government, the opposition and Myanmar's neighbours have all waffled.

- public services. A 2000 survey (for WHO I think) rated Myanmar's healthcare system the worst in the entire world, of the 190 countries surveyed. The "civilian" government has managed to roll back some of the worst of sanctions, but Western nations and capital are still not flowing in as of yet.

Not sure why you think the Presidential election will be important - it is by all accounts a done deal. Parliament is the interesting thing (and some regions/states where ethnic parties have a chance).

I doubt the Rohyingas will be that important. Few, if any, sympathize with them in Burma. The pro-junta parties will likely cite them as a national security problem, but there are others they can use. The NLD/NDF would have no reason to bring it up.

I think it will be in the "some rigging but not enough to skew it totally" category. Regarding African elections you generally say the opposition needs to get 60% to win. This will likely be something similar. There were  ghost voters, a bit of forced voting and some tampering last time. We can likely expect something on a similar level this time.

I expect a bread and butter-election with focus on raising  living standards for the general population and better public services (healthcare, schools, water, roads etc).

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Well the important thing, as in "the thing that will probably be the elephant in the room".

We should really invent some sort of scale for how fake an election is IMO. The by-elections last time have convinced me it won't be, say, Nigeria 2007 bad; more like Romania 2014 shenanigans by the incumbents.

The thing is bread and butter stuff will only come with better international support and investment; which will almost certainly depend on political reforms (or sucking up to China, I guess).

[politicus]

Well the important thing, as in "the thing that will probably be the elephant in the room".

We should really invent some sort of scale for how fake an election is IMO. The by-elections last time have convinced me it won't be, say, Nigeria 2007 bad; more like Romania 2014 shenanigans by the incumbents.

The thing is bread and butter stuff will only come with better international support and investment; which will almost certainly depend on political reforms (or sucking up to China, I guess).

I think Indonesia 1999 is too optimistic a scenario. The Tatmadaw is stronger than the Indonesian military relative to  civilian society - and their social prestige is high.

There will be much more at stake this time than at the by-elections, so the element of rigging will most likely be higher. You also have polls in remote areas with strong Army presence = intimidation.

Burma has a fine relationship to its neighbours China, India and Thailand. They do not really need the West to invest and Asians can live with the current situation. China is their main investor, but plenty of other Asian countries invest there (Singapore and South Korea comes to mind). With the crude oil pipeline across Northern Burma it has become a very valuable partner for China. India has the 3000 km+ India-Myanmar-Thailand Friendship Highway from its's northeastern states into Myanmar, which is set to be finished next year, and a strong interest in countering China.

Burma had a 8,7% GDP growth in 2014 and it will not be less this year. It is more a matter of distribution to the general population than slow growth. The fat cats needs to a little less greedy and the government needs to invest in public infrastructure (incl. healthcare).  

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Weren't Beijing furious at the Burmese government a while back because they blocked some megadam the Chinese were planning?

[politicus]

Weren't Beijing furious at the Burmese government a while back because they blocked some megadam the Chinese were planning?

They suspended it. NLD campaigned against it, but I think it was more important, that it is on Kachin territory and the Kachins is one of the few ethnic groups that still have a (low key) armed insurgency going on which flared up over these dam projects.

As you can see in the article there are other mega-project going on. They are really changing Burma right now, and the controversial thing is so much of it happens in areas populated by ethnic minorities, that are deeply distrustful of the government and have "older" people who lay down their arms in the 90s and early 00s, but know how to wage a guerrilla war and could train the young if necessary.

This is one reason I think this idea of a new ethnic minority federalist party is interesting because the environmentalism/sustainability and river protection would be high on their agenda.

http://www.internationalrivers.org/resources/burma-government-suspends-megadam-1646

[Simfan34]

All very true, but a note on your source: International Rivers is a near-criminal organization.

[MaxQue]

All very true, but a note on your source: International Rivers is a near-criminal organization.

Oh, enough with your trolling.

[Simfan34]

All very true, but a note on your source: International Rivers is a near-criminal organization.

Oh, enough with your trolling.

I'm completely serious. They go beyond mere environmentalism and routinely glorify poverty in regularly claiming a dam will harm "indigenous traditions" (making the assumption that "indigenous people"-- a rather nebulous concept when one leaves the realm of settler states, anyway-- always prefer their backward state and have have made a deliberate choice to remain so), while almost never giving any weight to the developmental or poverty-reducing objectives behind such dams. In placing the environment above all other considerations they relegate the improvement of the human condition to a secondary role, if that.

That's not to say they're always wrong or that building dams is always a good idea. But to me they're not just naive, they're downright myopic.

[politicus]

Temporarily closed to avoid derailing. Take it elsewhere guys.

[politicus]

As the first Western media ever BBC has gotten an interview with Burma's Commander-in-Chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. He says the military will not step back from politics until there are peace deals with all the ethnic insurgent groups, but it will respect the results of the election even if the opposition wins fairly  (however they are going to interpret that..).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=13&v=qiPf-oBOdOc


 

[politicus]

There aren't many polls done in Burma, but a fez excerpts from a big survey done in late 2014 by two Western researchers (Roman David and Ian Holliday) in Yangon and Mandalay regions and Kachin, Kayin and Shan states. This gives a fairly representative balance between Burmans and minorities, but obviously more urban than the national average.


Trust:

Buddhist monks 72%
Aung San Suu Kyi 65%


Party choice:

NLD 52%
USDP 19%
Ethnic parties 23%
Others 6%


Opinion of Article 59f of the 2008 constitution, which says you can not become President or VP with close family members who "owe allegiance to a foreign power" (the law barring Aung San Suu Kyi from running for President). Interesting that quite a few who plan to vote NLD for Parliament are not in favour of abolishing it.

Abolish 39%
Keep it 25%
Undecided 36%


Opinion of having a Rohingya as neighbour

Do not want to live next to a Rohingya 78%
Do not mind 10%
Do not know 12%


Opinion of the interfaith restriction law

Support 63%
Against 16%
Do not know 21%

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/08/leader-axed-myanmar-ruling-party-offices-raided-150813042838592.html

Ominous signs, as Speaker and likely president (and most NLD-friendly USDP figure) Shwe Mann and his allies are stripped from power in power grab emanating from Sein's people.

[Simfan34]

Just a few days ago the NLD surprised people by leaving off many activist veterans of the 1988 and 1991 uprisings off their electoral list. This was presumably to curry favor with the military establishment, which is something they've been doing for a while. It's clear that Suu Kyi will only win as much as the Tatmadaw will let her. With this latest development though, it seems that her appeasement was not enough.

This secret purge is something out of the "old Myanmar" that was supoosed to have ended in 2011. If it is the handiwork of the old strongman Than Shwe and the new President Thein Sein-- which it almost certainly is-- it means nothing will change. The signs point to the overt return of the military in politics and a reversal of a democratic opening; or, perhaps, Shwe Mann's faction may yet survive to cause all kinds of intrigue. It's reported that he'll stay on as not only an MP but as speaker of the lower house.

The fact also is that most "politics" of this sort remain inter-Bamar and fail to engage most of the "minorities" in the majority.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Bump, as the junta have decided not to delay the election after sending out signals they were indeed going to be postponed.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/13/myanmar-election-could-be-postponed-due-to-flooding-fears

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The Grauniad profiles anti-Islamic sentiment:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/03/no-vote-no-candidates-myanmars-muslims-barred-from-their-own-election

Ominous stuff, but nothing new.

[Panhandle Progressive]

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/03/myanmar-elections-what-is-happening-your-questions-answered

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roadmap_to_democracy

I'm more curious about this election outcome than any I've followed. Does the government expend the gains from its democratic reforms (and prevent Kyi from leading the country) or does it use the Roadmap to democracy and allow her to lead parliament, albeit with a puppet president? Time will tell, BUT THE WORLD IS WATCHING!

[Halgrímur]

I'm more curious about this election outcome than any I've followed. Does the government expend the gains from its democratic reforms (and prevent Kyi from leading the country) or does it use the Roadmap to democracy and allow her to lead parliament, albeit with a puppet president? Time will tell, BUT THE WORLD IS WATCHING!

The Tatmadaw has already made it quite clear they are not prepared to loosen their control of the state machinery by ousting the architect behind the democratization process.

[bertramhall]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/11/05/myanmar-election-irrawaddy_n_8499036.html?utm_hp_ref=world

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Still Aung San Suu Kyi who is widely supported by Obama is hardly to win the elections.

[Yeahsayyeah]

So the 2010 election is now seen as "not democratic" by all non-Burmese, despite the same rules were applied?

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2015/nov/09/myanmar-elections-aung-san-suu-kyi-hints-at-victory
"Opposition NLD wins 35 of first 36 seats declared
Ruling party acting chairman says: ‘We have more losses than wins"
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/11/09/reports-myanmar-ruling-party-concedes-election-defeat/75440834/
"We lost," Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) leader Htay Oo told the Reuters news agency, although votes were still being counted."

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

A huge suite of USDP bigwigs ha been kicked out.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

over Two days  of  counting the votes

[ag]

over Two days  of  counting the votes

Large and very poor country with very little experience organizing elections.