Predict Trump's RCP avg on day of FOX debate

[Likely Voter]

The day Donald Trump announced a month ago his RCP avg was 3.6%. It is currently 15.0%. He lead the last two polls (at 17 and 18% respectively).  By the time of the next debate it is likely the RCP avg will be based on all post-McCain comment polls.  So will it have a big impact?  A couple of other factors in the next couple of weeks are the entry of Kasich along with some local and national advertising spends from some of the candidate Super Pacs.

[Maxwell]

I'm honestly wondering how this McCain thing blows over. But I will say that by the debate he will begin to lose steam, particularly during the debate when it's realized that he hasn't done his homework on the issues a President needs to know.

[Mehmentum]

No idea, its a pretty chaotic situation at this point.  I don't think he'll have dropped out yet, not while he's still getting attention and into debates.

[Suburbia]

16.1-20%. Trump isn't going anywhere. There is a lot of angry grassroots supporters that are fed up with the politics of the 21st century and he'll be in the race until April 2016.

[NewYorkExpress]

14.7%... but with a very splintered GOP field, he could be in the top three easily (and maybe even leading).

[The Other Castro]

His 18,17,and 13 numbers will still be in the average by that time, and there's a 12 from CNN that might be refreshed by a new CNN poll before the debate but I dont think that's very likely. The only other polls likely to come in before the debate I think are PPP and Quinnipiac. PPP hasn't polled him before, so that's anyone's guess, but Quinnipiac had Trump at the same numbers as other pollsters for their last poll, so I'd expect his number from them to be around 14. Just to have a placeholder number, I'll say PPP finds him at 15. Assuming CNN isn't dropped from the averages, that brings us to:
(18+17+13+12+14+15)/6= 14.83%

[Likely Voter]

There is going to be a rush of polling in the next couple of weeks in the run up to the Fox debate so I doubt any of the current polls will be in the RCP average. I know Monmouth has already announced they are doing another one and they just released one last week. Fox is certain to do one right before their own debate. ABC, NBC, Quinni and PPP and Marist are all due for new polls as well. CNN might do one too.

[Bull Moose Base]

There is going to be a rush of polling in the next couple of weeks in the run up to the Fox debate so I doubt any of the current polls will be in the RCP average. I know Monmouth has already announced they are doing another one and they just released one last week. Fox is certain to do one right before their own debate. ABC, NBC, Quinni and PPP and Marist are all due for new polls as well. CNN might do one too.

Looks RCP is the 4 most recent and the debate is going by the last 5, right?

I think he'll bleed a lot of his support quickly but still be high or mid single digits. But what about after the debate? I'd say Trump rebounding above his current levels or collapsing below his old levels both seem realistic possibilities. Who knows what crazy thing he'll say and whether it will infuriate conservative voters or endear them to him?

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

There is going to be a rush of polling in the next couple of weeks in the run up to the Fox debate so I doubt any of the current polls will be in the RCP average. I know Monmouth has already announced they are doing another one and they just released one last week. Fox is certain to do one right before their own debate. ABC, NBC, Quinni and PPP and Marist are all due for new polls as well. CNN might do one too.

Looks RCP is the 4 most recent and the debate is going by the last 5, right?

I think he'll bleed a lot of his support quickly but still be high or mid single digits. But what about after the debate? I'd say Trump rebounding above his current levels or collapsing below his old levels both seem realistic possibilities. Who knows what crazy thing he'll say and whether it will infuriate conservative voters or endear them to him?

Not all Republicans who call themselves "conservatives" are in line with the whole of what the GOP has ACTUALLY stood for in recent years.  Trump fills the paleo-conservative void in the GOP, and that position has needed filling for some time.  These folks are not down with the globalist agenda of the GOP as a whole, and Trump has their ear, at least for now.

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19%

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

I think he'll be around 10%.  I'm hoping for higher, but 10% will keep The Donald in the game.

[Indy Texas]

I have a feeling a lot of his supporters are not the sort of people who would be offended by anything he's said thus far. If anything, they might continue to support him because he "tells it like it is" or whatever.

His numbers will probably be lower than they are now, but he'll almost certainly be on stage for the first debate.

[Leinad]

I have a feeling a lot of his supporters are not the sort of people who would be offended by anything he's said thus far. If anything, they might continue to support him because he "tells it like it is" or whatever.

His numbers will probably be lower than they are now, but he'll almost certainly be on stage for the first debate.

Indeed. He has a very low ceiling (can't be much higher than where he is right now) and I don't think his long-term floor is that high, either, but that support is going to be harder to erase than with McCain comments.

The Donald Trump Crowd doesn't really like John McCain, or any moderate or establishment Republicans. They like Donald Trump because they hate three things: establishment Republicans, political correctness, and Mexicans. He'll lose some voters, probably to Cruz, when they find out he isn't actually that conservative. Especially if a guy like Cruz does well in the debates, and specifically takes a stance against immigration.

[Likely Voter]

Well most of us were wrong. This thread was made the day of the McCain captured comment by Trump. At the time he was a 15%. I thought he would drop down to 11% or so. However his RCP average is actually 24.3%.

Trump's current standing is the highest anyone has had during the entire cycle. Christie peaked at 20% back in 2013 right after he was reelected (and right before bridgegate). After that Huckabee actually peaked as frontrunner at 16% in early 2014 and Paul even had a moment in front at 13.8% last summer.  Walker peaked at 17.3% after his big CPAC speech in March. Bush peaked at 17.8 after he officially announced earlier this summer.

That being said, Perry was averaging above 30% before his first debate back in August 2011, so you never know.