Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[seb_pard]

One question, is North Holland a hostile territory to CDA? Their rise there is much lower than in the rest of the country

[SunSt0rm]

One question, is North Holland an hostile territory to CDA? Their rise there is much lower than in the rest of the country

CDA stronghold should be outside the Randstad

[Zinneke]

Roermond another dead heat between VVD and PVV.
Capital of Limburg nationalism.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Why is the CDA doing so well in the north? Isn't that leftist country?

[Tintrlvr]

One question, is North Holland an hostile territory to CDA? Their rise there is much lower than in the rest of the country

I think Noord-Holland even outside the Amsterdam region is less religious, so people leaving VVD or PvdA there are more likely to switch to D66, GL or PVV than CDA. D66 has a bunch of second-place finishes there so far.

[SunSt0rm]

Why is the CDA doing so well in the north? Isn't that leftist country?

North is PvdA and CDA country. Populist and liberal parties arent doing well there

[Sozialliberal]

A general comment:

Dutch elections are like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're going to get.

Seriously, I'm glad that the PVV isn't the largest party and that a stable government (in Dutch terms) can be formed.

[Zinneke]

Why is the CDA doing so well in the north? Isn't that leftist country?

North is PvdA and CDA country. Populist and liberal parties arent doing well there

East Groningen begs to differ.

[Intell]

How are working class areas voting? How is the north, which was solidly labour, voting, are these areas working class?

[SunSt0rm]

Why is the CDA doing so well in the north? Isn't that leftist country?

North is PvdA and CDA country. Populist and liberal parties arent doing well there

East Groningen begs to differ.

True, its more the rust belt.

This map will explain much of the Dutch electoral map
In the civil belt, CDA should be stronger than the VVD if they are close

[Crumpets]

So if I'm reading the map right, PvdA has yet to actually be declared the winner in a single seat?

[SunSt0rm]

So if I'm reading the map right, PvdA has yet to actually be declared the winner in a single seat?

If I am correct, Leeuwaarden is their only chance, if they lose their, they will not win any municipality

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

PVV won SCHIEDAM with 19.7% DENK got 8.2%

[DavidB.]

Exit poll seems to be fine. PVV doesn't seem to be overperforming. PVV in Zaanstad disappointing,

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Why is the CDA doing so well in the north? Isn't that leftist country?

North is PvdA and CDA country. Populist and liberal parties arent doing well there

East Groningen begs to differ.

True, its more the rust belt.

This map will explain much of the Dutch electoral map
In the civil belt, CDA should be stronger than the VVD if they are close

Can anyone translate that map to English?

[I Won - Get Over It]

This is odd. NOS vote share is different from what Europe Elects twitter is reporting.

NOS has:

17.6% VVD
14.3% D66
13.1% GL
10.1% PVV
10.0% CDA

Europe Elects has:

22.4% VVD
13.2% GL
12.2% PVV
11.9% D66
11.3% CDA

Which one is correct?

NOS is prognosis based on the counted votes, EuropeElects are just the counted votes

Wait if this is prognosis why is seats prognosis so different?
PVV 11.3 (20 seats)
D66 12.8 (17 seats )

[SunSt0rm]

Why is the CDA doing so well in the north? Isn't that leftist country?

North is PvdA and CDA country. Populist and liberal parties arent doing well there

East Groningen begs to differ.

True, its more the rust belt.

This map will explain much of the Dutch electoral map
In the civil belt, CDA should be stronger than the VVD if they are close

Can anyone translate that map to English?

The results were based on the Ukraine referendum. Josse de Voogd, expert on geographical election made this map. Rust Belts are places PVV and SP should do well. Civil belt is place where populist parties wont do well, where CDA and PvdA should do well. Green belt are places where the D66 and GL should do well

[Crumpets]

So if I'm reading the map right, PvdA has yet to actually be declared the winner in a single seat?

If I am correct, Leeuwaarden is their only chance, if they lose their, they will not win any municipality

So, just to double-check, the municipality map from NOS does not equate to actual seats. Like, SGP leading in five doesn't translate to five seats, and Amsterdam (I assume) has more than one seat in the House of Representatives?

[Mike88]

Ipsos exit poll 18-24 year old:

18% D66
17% VVD
17% GL
12% PVV
12% CDA
  5% SP

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/842163251676893185

[Zinneke]

So if I'm reading the map right, PvdA has yet to actually be declared the winner in a single seat?

If I am correct, Leeuwaarden is their only chance, if they lose their, they will not win any municipality

So, just to double-check, the municipality map from NOS does not equate to actual seats. Like, SGP leading in five doesn't translate to five seats, and Amsterdam (I assume) has more than one seat in the House of Representatives?

Purely proportional system.

Why is the CDA doing so well in the north? Isn't that leftist country?

North is PvdA and CDA country. Populist and liberal parties arent doing well there

East Groningen begs to differ.

True, its more the rust belt.

This map will explain much of the Dutch electoral map
In the civil belt, CDA should be stronger than the VVD if they are close

Can anyone translate that map to English?

The results were based on the Ukraine referendum. Josse de Voogd, expert on geographical election made this map. Rust Belts are places PVV and SP should do well. Civil belt is place where populist parties wont do well, where CDA and PvdA should do well. Green belt are places where the D66 and GL should do well

Just to add : the overgangzone is where Belgium should extend the cultural divide between the Catholic South and the Protestant North.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Ipsos exit poll:

Low education level:

PVV-ENF: 23%
VVD-ALDE: 16%
SP-LEFT: 13%
CDA-EPP: 13%
D66-ALDE: 7%
GL-G/EFA: 7%

[SunSt0rm]

Ipsos exit poll 18-24 year old:

18% D66
17% VVD
17% GL
12% PVV
12% CDA
  5% SP

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/842163251676893185

I thought GL would do better than D66 with this group

[Velasco]

Results in Veendam municipality are quite impressive (in brackets 2012 election):

SP 18.7% (12.1%), PVV 16.3% (9.5%), VVD 14.1% (17.4%), CDA 10% (5.7%), PvdA 9.5% (42.2%), D66 9.4% (4.4%), GL 6.9% (1.1%) ...

[SunSt0rm]

New Prognose

VVD 32
PvdA 10
PVV 19
CDA 21
D66 18
GL 14
SP 14
PvdA 10
CU 6

VVD+CDA+D66+CU =76

[Diouf]

This is odd. NOS vote share is different from what Europe Elects twitter is reporting.

NOS has:

17.6% VVD
14.3% D66
13.1% GL
10.1% PVV
10.0% CDA

Europe Elects has:

22.4% VVD
13.2% GL
12.2% PVV
11.9% D66
11.3% CDA

Which one is correct?

NOS is prognosis based on the counted votes, EuropeElects are just the counted votes

Wait if this is prognosis why is seats prognosis so different?
PVV 11.3 (20 seats)
D66 12.8 (17 seats )

It did look weird at some point, but now it looks okay again. And the numbers on the red bars matches the numbers from the new prognosis NOS just made. CDA down to earth again, "only" a narrow 2nd.