Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[ApatheticAustrian]

imho wilders can't hope for a better global environment the next time. ...the populist moment is at its peak, it could hardly get any better, gifts like a refugee crisis happen only so often and that the turkey thing was helping rutte an not wilders is telling enough.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What exactly is the voter base of the Animal Rights' party and how is it different to GL?

I seem to recall some analysis that suggests their votes are less prosperous and more cynical of politics.

[MAINEiac4434]

Only Leeuwarderadeel hasn't has declared yet. Every other municipality has. Being in the north it was staunchly PvdA last time around. It's surrounded by CDA municipalities.

[mvd10]

The CU says the VVD should talk to GroenLinks first because GroenLinks is one of the main winners of the election while CU remained stable at 5 seats. Under Halsema or Sap GroenLinks would have been able to work with the VVD, but I think Klaver has bigger ambitions than being the smallest coalition partner in a centre-right coalition, especially now the PvdA is in shambles and D66 is likely going to lose seats if they govern with VVD, CDA and CU. Klaver might have done it if other elections were the only other option, but there is another option for a stable coalition so I don't see why he should rush to the VVD with the risk of ending up in the same situation as the PvdA.

Asscher said it is likely the PvdA will go in opposition.

[Zinneke]

What exactly is the voter base of the Animal Rights' party and how is it different to GL?

I seem to recall some analysis that suggests their votes are less prosperous and more cynical of politics.

Yup, DavidB schooled me on this because I found it really hard to believe but PvdD have their best results in the Deep South as a sort of protest (its SP-PVV territory in the urban areas there), as well as their usual demograpic of student cities.

imho wilders can't hope for a better global environment the next time. ...the populist moment is at its peak, it could hardly get any better, gifts like a refugee crisis happen only so often and that the turkey thing was helping rutte an not wilders is telling enough.

The debate just after the issue must have helped. Rutte i think said the line that will be remembered for this election (like Balkendaele's "You look so pretty" but the opposite effect). "There is a difference between tweeting from the sofa and governing the country". From then on he made Wilders look amateurish, he planted that idea and it worked wonders IMO.

[Tintrlvr]

What exactly is the voter base of the Animal Rights' party and how is it different to GL?

I seem to recall some analysis that suggests their votes are less prosperous and more cynical of politics.

Yup, DavidB schooled me on this because I found it really hard to believe but PvdD have their best results in the Deep South as a sort of protest (its SP-PVV territory in the urban areas there), as well as their usual demograpic of student cities.

imho wilders can't hope for a better global environment the next time. ...the populist moment is at its peak, it could hardly get any better, gifts like a refugee crisis happen only so often and that the turkey thing was helping rutte an not wilders is telling enough.

The debate just after the issue must have helped. Rutte i think said the line that will be remembered for this election (like Balkendaele's "You look so pretty" but the opposite effect). "There is a difference between tweeting from the sofa and governing the country". From then on he made Wilders look amateurish, he planted that idea and it worked wonders IMO.

PvdD's demographic profile seems to have changed somewhat this time. They did very well in Noord-Holland for some reason (5.7% in Bergen, 4.8% in Alkmaar and 4.0% in Castricum, e.g., all stronger than any result in the far south).

[DavidB.]

PvdD's demographic profile seems to have changed somewhat this time. They did very well in Noord-Holland for some reason (5.7% in Bergen, 4.8% in Alkmaar and 4.0% in Castricum, e.g., all stronger than any result in the far south).

This is a correct observation. The pattern seems to be somewhat more traditionally green partyish this time. They have always done well in Bergen though.

[DavidB.]

Some other observations:
- PVV's gains in the south were very poor: the disappointed southern voter who used to vote CDA but voted PVV in 2010 and VVD in 2012 often came home for the CDA this time rather than voting for Wilders once again. This is a pattern we saw in the provincial election in 2015 too: stable result nationally, but small gains in the north and losses in Limburg. This time, outside the south, the party often only slightly underperformed on its 2010 result, and in Groningen they probably did better than in 2010. The PVV lost support in Wilders' hometown of Venlo (though the absolute number of votes will be higher this time).
- Was it Sunstorm or Rogier who expected Edam-Volendam to be FvD's best municipality? This prediction was spot on: 6.1%.
- The SP received more votes than the Jessiah movement. For all the talk about Klaver's #revolution, Emile Roemer leads the largest party on the left.
- Awful result for the left. SP, PvdA, GL and PvdD received 42 seats, which should be a record low and is barely more than what the PvdA got on their own in 2012. The Dutch are a bourgeois, center-right bunch. A VVD-CDA-D66-CU coalition would be fitting in that regard.
- The Erdogan row probably gave Rutte a "Prime Minister bonus" at the expense of CDA and PVV.
- Turnout among young voters (18-24) was lower (!) than in 2012: 66%.

[ApatheticAustrian]

sure the dutch are center-right but the split is different than in other countries anyway and while i could never vote for the ÖVP here in austria, i could totally see myself hypothetically voting for D66. Mostly it was an anti-fringe election, imho, and even the utter implosion of the PvdA did only help center-center/center-leftish parties, which is quite a difference again......our social democracy was directly connected to the success of the FPÖ for a long time.

[DavidB.]

Mostly it was an anti-fringe election, imho, and even the utter implosion of the PvdA did only help center-center/center-leftish parties, which is quite a difference again......our social democracy was directly connected to the success of the FPÖ for a long time.

It was not an "anti-fringe" election, just like the 2012 election was not an "anti-fringe" election. The "fringes" were simply irrelevant and voters knew it. There was no overarching theme or mood. People left the PvdA because they were disappointed with the government's economic policies that were perceived as "too VVD", and some people left the VVD because they were disappointed for different reasons (refugees, broken promises). The SP and the PVV were no attractive alternatives to most voters, and Wilders not campaigning hurt him too. The Guardian/Economist/Juncker way of "understanding" this election is pretty lazy. People only call this an anti-fringe election because the PVV didn't win as much as was expected.

D66 is much more comparable to NEOS, of course... do you vote for them?

[DavidB.]

Another great outcome of this election is that pro-Israel parties have more seats now than in the last parliament: 77-75 last time around, 82-68 this time. VVD-PVV-CDA gained three and FvD two while CU and SGP parties remained stable.

[ApatheticAustrian]

D66 is much more comparable to NEOS, of course... do you vote for them?

i could see myself voting for them next time, since they are in danger of becoming irrelevant again and i think at least one liberal party should be part of every parliament, especially since they are more of a socio-liberal party and campaigned hard against the right-fringe, which is the only existing fringe at all in austria.

well, you surely know endless more than me about dutch politics so let me rephrase: the dutch society/political landscape is in general quite....centerish and more afraid of experiments/many parties seem to agree on some major points and are willing to cooperate, especially cause they must cooperate.

Ofc under-achieving Wilders is a sign of "anti-fringe" but the SP also didn't suddenly grow like crazy and the biggest winners are more or less moderate parties, who have also been framed as potential partners in government.

Btw.....if your explanation is based on data, it's funny that people who would leave the PdvA cause of right-wing economics would switch to D66, which also seems to follow right-wing economics.

[DavidB.]

Amsterdam: results by district. DENK first in Nieuw-West, PVV in Noord.

[Intell]

Working class voters a split between the SP and PVV, though lean to the SP, right?

[DavidB.]

The big three: CDA, PvdA and VVD. Not that big anymore...

Working class voters a split between the SP and PVV, though lean to the SP, right?

Don't know what "lean" means here, and doubt it's a fitting term, but working-class people are more likely to vote for the SP or the PVV, yes.

[Tintrlvr]

A1's result in Zuidoost Amsterdam is interesting. Is that a heavily immigrant but mostly non-Turkish area? I see it was also PvdA's best result in Amsterdam but not particularly strong for anyone else (including Denk).

[DavidB.]

well, you surely know endless more than me about dutch politics so let me rephrase: the dutch society/political landscape is in general quite....centerish and more afraid of experiments/many parties seem to agree on some major points and are willing to cooperate, especially cause they must cooperate.

This is most definitely true and a feature of our political system (and arguably of our political culture).

Ofc under-achieving Wilders is a sign of "anti-fringe" but the SP also didn't suddenly grow like crazy and the biggest winners are more or less moderate parties, who have also been framed as potential partners in government.

The effects of the election aren't what SP and PVV hoped for, that's for sure. However, "anti-fringe", to me, implies people actively voted to reject the SP and the PVV. That wasn't what this election was about to most people (though some GL and D66 voters may have had anti-Trump/Wilders motivations). People voted for a VVD that used the word "kopvodden" and told minorities to "act normally or leave" and a CDA that campaigned on having the Queen give up her Argentine citizenship, kids singing the national anthem in school while standing, and terminating the EU Association Agreement with Turkey. This is also why I find Rutte's suggestion that populism has been defeated so grotesque. Populism was not defeated, it was adopted by VVD and CDA and taken to a whole new level.

Btw.....if your explanation is based on data, it's funny that people who would leave the PdvA cause of right-wing economics would switch to D66, which also seems to follow right-wing economics.

The right-wing economics argument is true for many people who went to GL, but not for those who switched to D66. It is largely the more progressive, cosmopolitan, pro-EU profile of D66 that attracts these voters. Some of them may have been tactical PvdA voters in 2012 to reject Rutte and his government with CDA and PVV.

A1's result in Zuidoost Amsterdam is interesting. Is that a heavily immigrant but mostly non-Turkish area? I see it was also PvdA's best result in Amsterdam but not particularly strong for anyone else (including Denk).

Yes, many people of African descent live there. Denk's poor performance shows that them getting broad support among non-Muslim minority groups didn't materialize, as expected.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Thanks for all the answers to my posts, i have learned  a lot about the Netherlands in the last days.

@David...do you btw see Rutte's "change of heart", or - more likely - campaign strategy/voice as kind of necessary adaption to a point closer to your ideals or just sheer hypocrisy?

I for once wouldn't care much if a politican is shrill/populist as long as he is - different than Wilders - more or less pro-european and sceptical of Russia.

[mgop]

one thing is sure, new government will be short lived and highly unpopular

[mvd10]

Rutte has definitely changed over the years. In 2004 he wanted the VVD to merge with D66 and the third way wing of the PvdA, and in the 2006 leadership election he was viewed as the social liberal candidate (vs the conservative Verdonk). In his early years many VVD voters were unhappy with him because they viewed him as too left-wing. No strong stances on taxes and immigration (the 2006 election manifesto literally didn't include a single word on immigration), his flirtation with what he called ''groenrechts'' (greenright). But in 2008/2009 he slowly started to change and became more conservative, a Republican/Tory consultant from the US adviced him to do it. His 2010 campaign already was pretty right-wing.

[DavidB.]

Effective number of parties higher than ever:


Interesting other fact: only 51% of PVV-2017 voters voted for the PVV in 2012. Means there has been a lot of voter movement going on and that there are a lot of PVV-2012 voters who didn't vote PVV this time around.

@David...do you btw see Rutte's "change of heart", or - more likely - campaign strategy/voice as kind of necessary adaption to a point closer to your ideals or just sheer hypocrisy?

Rutte doesn't have ideals. He even said that a vision is something that stands in the way. He is a manager. The VVD are easily the most advanced party when it comes to campaigning, when it comes to staying on message, and when it comes to image building. They explicitly said they view politics as a product they want to sell. Everything Rutte says and does as VVD leader is thought out, from his turn to the right in 2012 to his re-branding as a value conservative and a Christian since 2015. This is all campaigning stuff.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Working class voters a split between the SP and PVV, though lean to the SP, right?

That doesn't seem to be the case


http://nos.nl/artikel/2163332-tk17-bekijk-de-uitslagen-per-gemeente-en-vorm-je-eigen-coalitie.html

[mvd10]

60% of the voters would be positive about a VVD-CDA-D66-CU coalition. 49% would accept a VVD-CDA-D66-GL coalition and 48% would accept a VVD-CDA-D66-PvdA coalition. VVD, CDA and CU voters want VVD-CDA-D66-CU. D66 voters would accept that coalition, but they still prefer GL over CU as the fourth partner.

http://opiniepanel.eenvandaag.nl/uitslagen/72743/peiling_coalitie_vvd_cda_d66_en_cu_favoriet

[DavidB.]

60% of the voters would be positive about a VVD-CDA-D66-CU coalition. 49% would accept a VVD-CDA-D66-GL coalition and 48% would accept a VVD-CDA-D66-PvdA coalition. VVD, CDA and CU voters want VVD-CDA-D66-CU. D66 voters would accept that coalition, but they still prefer GL over CU as the fourth partner.

http://opiniepanel.eenvandaag.nl/uitslagen/72743/peiling_coalitie_vvd_cda_d66_en_cu_favoriet

Also interesting: 88% of PvdA voters think Asscher should stay on (but 55% want to get rid of party chairman Hans Spekman). Treat with caution, sample size may be low...

[DavidB.]

From the Ipsos exit poll (which was very good):
Gender gap (men vs. women):

VVD: 59/41
CDA: 57/43
PvdA: 56/44
PVV: 55/45
SP: 51/49
D66: 50/50
CU/SGP: 43/57
GL: 39/61

Pct that didnt vote for the same party in 2012:
GL: 86%
D66: 65%
SP: 58%
CDA: 54%
PVV: 51%
VVD: 28%
CU/SGP: 25%
PvdA: 15%

Pct of party voters that are higher educated:
D66: 58%
GL: 55%
VVD: 49%
PvdA: 45%
CU/SGP: 39%
CDA: 35%
SP: 18%
PVV: 15%

Pct of party voters that are lower educated:
PVV: 39%
SP: 29%
CDA: 20%
CU/SGP: 17%
PvdA: 16%
VVD: 16%
GL: 13%
D66: 11%

Pct of party voters that are over 65:
PvdA: 44%
CDA: 31%
VVD: 24%
SP: 19%
GL: 18%
D66: 16%
PVV: 11%
CU/SGP: 11%

Pct of party voters that are under 35:
GL: 35%
CU/SGP: 33%
D66: 32%
VVD: 22%
PVV: 22%
CDA: 18%
SP: 16%
PvdA: 13%