Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[SunSt0rm]

First and second party by municipality. Second party: VVD and CDA in civic belts in north, east and Green Heart. D66 in the Alkmaar-Nijmegen progressive belt. PVV in suburban, exurban and declining formerly industrial areas. CDA being 2nd in East Brabant shows how the PVV failed there. The PVV-grey west-east strip in the center of the country used to be deep PvdA red. The map of the second largest party is much more insightful than the VVD-blue map.

Note the lack of places where the PvdA are in 2nd place.

Eastern Brabant has always been CDA territory, its very rural. Check the map of 2010 and see it was CDA county then and not PVV. I am suprised by the strong performance of VVD in rural East Brabant and weak performance of CDA there.

[SunSt0rm]

The final turnout percentage is 80.8%, the highest since 1989.

People often vote for a woman for feminist reasons, but they usually picked the first woman on the list. She was often sure to be elected anyway, so a vote for the first woman on the list typically doesn't increase the number of women in parliament. For that reason, there was a campaign to vote for women who are placed just below an electable position on the list this time. If they are elected with preference votes this does alter the gender balance in parliament. This campaign seems to have had the effect that Isabelle Diks, #19 on the GL list, has been elected with preference votes... at the expense of another woman, Lisa Westerveld at #14. However, Westerveld herself can still reach the preference threshold too. On the PvdA list it appears that incumbent Development Aid Minister Lilianne Ploumen, #10, has been elected for similar reasons and personal popularity at the expense of the #9, William Moorlag.

Ploumen became popular 1 month ago for her anti-abortion effort against Trump, not really suprising she has been elected tbh

[DavidB.]

Eastern Brabant has always been CDA territory, its very rural. Check the map of 2010 and see it was CDA county then and not PVV. I am suprised by the strong performance of VVD in East Brabant and weak performance of CDA there.

Of course it has always been CDA territory, but it is also territory the PVV can and need to do better in if they want to do better than in 2010. The VVD's strong performance there can be directly attributed to the two core elements of their brand: being a populist people's party that is tough on crime and strict on immigration ("normaal doen" and "pleur op" should have worked here), and being a party that wants the government out of people's business and seeks to cut taxes. These are popular stances with middle-class people in these areas, where trust in the government is lower than outside the south. While the CDA made important gains there, Buma remains a Protestant and the CDA are less Catholic than ever. This doesn't directly matter to people, but the party does "feel" different to people now that it has become more northern. I also think the Prime Minister bonus may have played a role for Rutte in these areas, where politics is viewed in a more hierarchical sense (which can be attributed to the area being historically Catholic) and personal leadership is valued higher.

[Shadows]

The clown Wilders lost. I remember him making racist remarks against Moroccans years back even before Trump & the alt-right phenomenon.

I think that is the big solace - That clown was even leading. There is time to rebuild the left ! Labour got decimated but atleast the Greens took a solid step forward !

[ApatheticAustrian]

leftwingers should hope now that D66 & probably CU

is the CU a christian leftish party regarding social policy?

[mvd10]

leftwingers should hope now that D66 & probably CU

is the CU a christian leftish party regarding social policy?

I think they are less left-wing on economic issues than they used to be, but there still is that social christian vibe. And they are progressive on environmental issues.

[Hydera]

leftwingers should hope now that D66 & probably CU

is the CU a christian leftish party regarding social policy?

So many things could be solved by reading wikipedia...

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[DC Al Fine]

leftwingers should hope now that D66 & probably CU

is the CU a christian leftish party regarding social policy?

Depends what you mean by social policy. They're quite conservative on abortion, euthanasia, gay rights etc, but more left leaning on immigration and the environment.

[MAINEiac4434]

leftwingers should hope now that D66 & probably CU

is the CU a christian leftish party regarding social policy?

Very conservative socially, left of center fiscally. SGP is more right-leaning fiscally

[ApatheticAustrian]

So many things could be solved by reading wikipedia...

you are correct but i prefer learning about other countries/political parties through local "politicos"...usually more helpful and nuanced.


thanks for the answers.

[SunSt0rm]

leftwingers should hope now that D66 & probably CU

is the CU a christian leftish party regarding social policy?

On environment and immigration they can be considered left. On Abortion, drugs and Euthanasia they are conservative. On the economy they are left to the CDA but right to the PvdA.

[DavidB.]

So many things could be solved by reading wikipedia...

So many misunderstandings would be solved if people on Atlas would use Wikipedia less and started asking questions to native posters more.

I'll add that I don't think CU have ever focused on being a green party as much as this time around.

[DavidB.]

(1 point):
Largest party: VVD
Largest in Amsterdam: GroenLinks
Largest in Utrecht (city) GroenLinks
Largest in Rotterdam: PVV
Largest in Den Haag: VVD
3/5 points

(2 points):
Largest in Limburg: PVV
Largest in Zuid-Holland: VVD
Largest in Noord-Holland: VVD
Largest in Flevoland: VVD
Largest in Zeeland: VVD
Largest in Overijssel: CDA
Largest in Friesland: CDA
Largest in Groningen: CDA
Largest in Drenthe: VVD
Largest in Noord-Brabant: VVD
Largest in Utrecht (province) VVD
Largest in Gelderland: VVD
22/24 points

(3 points):
PVV over or under 15.5% (2010 result)? Under
Predict the order of the following parties correctly: CDA, D66, GL? CDA, D66, GL
PVV over or under 30% in the municipality of Nissewaard? Under
Best VVD municipality? Laren
Best CDA municipality? Tubbergen
Best PVV municipality? Rucphen
Best GL municipality? Utrecht
Best D66 municipality? Wageningen
PvdA over or under 16% in Amsterdam? Under
PVV over or under 24% in Rotterdam? Under
PvdA over or under 10% in The Hague? Under
Predict the order of the following parties in The Hague correctly: VVD, D66, PVV. VVD, D66, PVV
PVV over or under 25% in Limburg? Under
Margin between VVD and PVV in Flevoland smaller or larger than 2 points? Over
DENK over or under 7% in The Hague? Under
39/45

(4 points)
Best FvD municipality? Utrecht (probably actually some random place)
Best DENK municipality? The Hague
Best VNL municipality? Rotterdam (probably actually some random place close to R'dam)
Which of DENK, FvD, PP and VNL get in? (only points if all correct) DENK and FvD
4/16

68 out of 90 points. Especially good predictions in the municipalities (let me know if I've made a mistake there, but I've been looking pretty hard to prove myself wrong.)

Prediction
(1 point):
Largest party: VVD
Largest in Amsterdam: D'66
Largest in Utrecht (city): GroenLinks
Largest in Rotterdam: PVV
Largest in Den Haag: VVD
2/5

(2 points):
Largest in Limburg: PVV
Largest in Zuid-Holland: VVD
Largest in Noord-Holland: VVD
Largest in Flevoland: PVV
Largest in Zeeland:CDA
Largest in Overijssel:CDA
Largest in Friesland: CDA
Largest in Groningen: SP
Largest in Drenthe: CDA
Largest in Noord-Brabant:CDA
Largest in Utrecht (province): D'66
Largest in Gelderland: CDA
12/24

(3 points):
PVV over or under 15.5% (2010 result)? OVER
Predict the order of the following parties correctly: CDA, D66, GL? CDA-D66-GL
PVV over or under 30% in the municipality of Nissewaard? OVER
Best VVD municipality? Wassenaar
Best CDA municipality? Tubbergen
Best PVV municipality? Rucphen
Best GL municipality? Utrecht
Best D66 municipality? Wageningen
PvdA over or under 16% in Amsterdam? Under
PVV over or under 24% in Rotterdam? Under
PvdA over or under 10% in The Hague? Under
Predict the order of the following parties in The Hague correctly: VVD, D66, PVV. VVD-PVV-D66
PVV over or under 25% in Limburg? Over
Margin between VVD and PVV in Flevoland smaller or larger than 2 points? Smaller
DENK over or under 7% in The Hague? Under
27/45

(4 points)
Best FvD municipality? Almere
Best DENK municipality? Amsterdam
Best VNL municipality? Rijswijk
Which of DENK, FvD, PP and VNL get in? (only points if all correct) DENK and FvD will get in.
4/16
Final seat prediction I will post tonight after the debate.

45 out of 90

Prediction
(1 point):
Largest party: VVD
Largest in Amsterdam: GL
Largest in Utrecht (city): GL
Largest in Rotterdam: PVV
Largest in Den Haag: VVD
3/5

(2 points):
Largest in Limburg: PVV
Largest in Zuid-Holland: VVD
Largest in Noord-Holland: VVD
Largest in Flevoland: VVD
Largest in Zeeland: CDA
Largest in Overijssel: CDA
Largest in Friesland: CDA
Largest in Groningen: SP
Largest in Drenthe: VVD
Largest in Noord-Brabant: VVD
Largest in Utrecht (province): VVD
Largest in Gelderland: VVD
22/24

(3 points):
PVV over or under 15.5% (2010 result)? Under
Predict the order of the following parties correctly: CDA, D66, GL? CDA-D66-GL
PVV over or under 30% in the municipality of Nissewaard? Under
Best VVD municipality? Laren
Best CDA municipality? Tubbergen
Best PVV municipality? Rucphen
Best GL municipality? Nijmegen
Best D66 municipality? Saba (if it counts otherwise Wageningen)
PvdA over or under 16% in Amsterdam? Under
PVV over or under 24% in Rotterdam? Under
PvdA over or under 10% in The Hague? Under
Predict the order of the following parties in The Hague correctly: VVD, D66, PVV. VVD-PVV-D66
PVV over or under 25% in Limburg? Under
Margin between VVD and PVV in Flevoland smaller or larger than 2 points? Smaller
DENK over or under 7% in The Hague? Under
36/45
(4 points)
Best FvD municipality? Almere
Best DENK municipality? Rotterdam
Best VNL municipality? Edam-Volendam
Which of DENK, FvD, PP and VNL get in? (only points if all correct) DENK & FvD
4/16

65 out of 90

[DavidB.]

Prediction
(1 point):
Largest party: VVD
Largest in Amsterdam: GroenLinks
Largest in Utrecht (city): GroenLinks
Largest in Rotterdam: PVV
Largest in Den Haag: VVD
(In good belgian fashion I'll include the peripherals as a way to distance myself from the Randstad bubble )
Largest in Eindhoven: D66
Largest in Groningen : D66/SP
Largest in Nijmegen : SP
Largest in Maastricht : PVV, but win for the aggregated SP/GL. [aggregated GL/SP were going to win pretty much everywhere , DavidB.]
Largest in Parkstad Limburg : PVV
3/5

(2 points):
Largest in Limburg: PVV
Largest in Zuid-Holland: VVD
Largest in Noord-Holland: VVD
Largest in Flevoland: PVV
Largest in Zeeland:CDA
Largest in Overijssel:CDA
Largest in Friesland: CDA
Largest in Groningen: SP
Largest in Drenthe: CDA
Largest in Noord-Brabant:CDA
Largest in Utrecht (province): VVD
Largest in Gelderland: VVD
16/24

(3 points):
PVV over or under 15.5% (2010 result)? Over
Predict the order of the following parties correctly: CDA, D66, GL? CDA-GL-D66
PVV over or under 30% in the municipality of Nissewaard? Assuming this is a white flight suburb of ROtterdam, over.
Best VVD municipality? no idea
Best CDA municipality? probably somewhere in the Bible Belt that historically votes for them in GEs over CU SGP
Best PVV municipality? Almere
Best GL municipality? Utrecht I guess
Best D66 municipality? Wageningen
PvdA over or under 16% in Amsterdam? Over
PVV over or under 24% in Rotterdam? Over
PvdA over or under 10% in The Hague? Over
Predict the order of the following parties in The Hague correctly: VVD, D66, PVV. VVD-PVV-D66
PVV over or under 25% in Limburg? Over
Margin between VVD and PVV in Flevoland smaller or larger than 2 points? Larger
DENK over or under 7% in The Hague? Under
12/45

(4 points)
Best FvD municipality? somewhere in North Amsterdam or Flevoland  
Best DENK municipality? Amsterdam
Best VNL municipality? Scheveningen/Den Haag
Which of DENK, FvD, PP and VNL get in? FvD, Denk and PP due to Ancilla.
0/16

31 out of 90 points

Prediction
(1 point):
Largest party: VVD
Largest in Amsterdam: D66
Largest in Utrecht (city): GroenLinks
Largest in Rotterdam: PVV
Largest in Den Haag: VVD
2/5
(2 points):
Largest in Limburg: PVV
Largest in Zuid-Holland: VVD
Largest in Noord-Holland: VVD
Largest in Flevoland: VVD
Largest in Zeeland: CDA
Largest in Overijssel:CDA
Largest in Friesland: CDA
Largest in Groningen: SP
Largest in Drenthe: VVD
Largest in Noord-Brabant: VVD
Largest in Utrecht (province): VVD
Largest in Gelderland: VVD
22/24

(3 points):
PVV over or under 15.5% (2010 result)? Under
Predict the order of the following parties correctly: CDA, D66, GL? CDA-D66-GL
PVV over or under 30% in the municipality of Nissewaard? Slightly under
Best VVD municipality? Laren
Best CDA municipality? Tubbergen
Best PVV municipality? Kerkrade
Best GL municipality? Utrecht
Best D66 municipality? Wageningen
PvdA over or under 16% in Amsterdam? Under
PVV over or under 24% in Rotterdam? Under
PvdA over or under 10% in The Hague? Over
Predict the order of the following parties in The Hague correctly: VVD, D66, PVV. VVD-PVV-D66
PVV over or under 25% in Limburg? Under
Margin between VVD and PVV in Flevoland smaller or larger than 2 points? Smaller
DENK over or under 7% in The Hague? Under
33/45
(4 points)
Best FvD municipality? Scheveningen
Best DENK municipality? Amsterdam
Best VNL municipality? Scheveningen
Which of DENK, FvD, PP and VNL get in? FvD and DENK
4/16

61 out of 90 points

[Antonio the Sixth]

lolpvdalol

[MAINEiac4434]

lolpvdalol

PvdA:2017::Liberal Party of Canada:2011

[DavidB.]

Swing map. Orange shows municipalities that have swung to the left, blue shows municipalities that have swung to the right. The collapse of the PvdA in the north seems to have benefited CDA and PVV.

[Dutch Conservative]

Swing map. Orange shows municipalities that have swung to the left, blue shows municipalities that have swung to the right. The collapse of the PvdA in the north seems to have benefited CDA and PVV.

Wow, the north has really changed. Used to be PvdA/SP-land. Something is wrong with Urk I guess. SGP (together with CDA and PVV) has won there and CU has lost. SGP has 56% and is a solid right party. Als the other parties combined have maybe 5% of the vote. So how could that result in a swing to the left?

[DavidB.]

Ha, you're right. Urk actually had a pretty sharp swing to SGP, PVV and CDA, it seems. But if you view CU as a right-wing party, right-wing parties got 97% at Urk in 2012 (VVD, CDA, PVV, SGP, CU) and 96.6% this time around (VVD, CDA, PVV, SGP, CU, FvD, VNL). That must be it.

[DavidB.]

NRC has the best maps: results by party, swing by party etc.

[Tender Branson]

The very urban Randstad area (= 8 million people) is clearly visible in that swing map above.

[DavidB.]

Worth noting that neither of the best places for FvD, VNL and DENK are really random. Though Tunahan Kuzu lives in Rotterdam, he grew up in Maassluis and went to school in neighboring Schiedam, where DENK got its best result: 8.2%. VNL did best in Bergen NH (1.0%), hometown of party leader Jan Roos. FvD did best in the very non-average municipality of Edam-Volendam (6.1%).

[Tintrlvr]

What's so non-average about Edam-Volendam?

[SunSt0rm]

Swing map. Orange shows municipalities that have swung to the left, blue shows municipalities that have swung to the right. The collapse of the PvdA in the north seems to have benefited CDA and PVV.

In the west or Randstad, the PvdA swing to D66 and VVD lost much voters to D66 there as well. Outside, PvdA & VVD ==> CDA & PVV. There is a weird municipality in the south, Leudal, that did not swing to the right, but swung hard to D66. No idea why tbh

[DavidB.]

What's so non-average about Edam-Volendam?

Volendam is an extremely insular, homogeneous fishing village that's very Catholic. They have their own dialect. Voting patterns in Volendam always differ strongly from those in surrounding places and, for that matter, from those in the rest of the country. Edam, a picturesque small town, is more comparable to neighboring Waterland, but Volendam is much bigger and overshadows Edam in the election results.