Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[DavidB.]

There is a weird municipality in the south that did not swing to the right, but swung hard to D66. No idea why tbh

That's the municipality of Leudal. Local politician Rens Raemakers was at #17 on the D66 list and was elected, presumably with a lot of preference votes from his hometown.

I've been digging through the election results as published by the Kiesraad and it seems to me that a lot of voters have taken the advice to vote for a woman on an unelectable spot in order to elect more female MPs this time. Very interesting.

GL in Amsterdam here. Obviously I'm not saying this is the only reason these candidates got a lot of votes, but it is still interesting how almost all women here have clearly received more votes than men.

[SunSt0rm]

With all votes counted now, it seems that GL has beaten the SP with just 600 votes difference. It wont change the seat allocation, but its a psycological win for GL to be the strongest, or least weak left party. ALso SP jhas won Groningen from VVD with less than 200 votes difference.

[DavidB.]

With all votes counted now, it seems that GL has beaten the SP with just 600 votes difference. It wont change the seat allocation, but its a psycological win for GL to be the strongest, or least weak left party. ALso SP jhas won Groningen from VVD with less than 200 votes difference.

It does mean GL will be in the parliamentary commission for the secret services ("commissie stiekem") rather than the SP, since only the largest 5 parties will be allowed in there from now on.

I will have to change the points for our predictions in Groningen

[SunSt0rm]

With all votes counted now, it seems that GL has beaten the SP with just 600 votes difference. It wont change the seat allocation, but its a psycological win for GL to be the strongest, or least weak left party. ALso SP jhas won Groningen from VVD with less than 200 votes difference.

It does mean GL will be in the parliamentary commission for the secret services ("commissie stiekem") rather than the SP, since only the largest 5 parties will be allowed in there from now on.

I will have to change the points for our predictions in Groningen

Arent 7 parties going to be invited by them? Otherwise lol PvdA not being there anymore

Also PvdA chair Spekman has announced his resignation later this year

Edit: 5 largest parties and they can invite 2 more, which could be SGP leader for his expertise

[DavidB.]

Arent 7 parties going to be invited by them? Otherwise lol PvdA not being there anymore

It will be five, with the possibility of inviting seven on an occasional basis (but not necessarily parties 6 and 7 in size). This may mean Asscher and Roemer (or Lilian Marijnissen?) will be invited all the time in practice, but no guarantee.

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https://www.tweedekamer.nl/sites/default/files/atoms/files/rvo_compleet_maart_2017_zonder_cover_0.pdf

[DavidB.]

FvD dip under 1% almost nowhere (except for the random municipalities of Loppersum, Sint Anthonis and Elburg: 0.9%) but are still clearly stronger in the west and in Limburg than in the east, north and Brabant. Interesting.

[DavidB.]

Both Isabelle Diks (GL, #19) and Lisa Westerveld (GL, #14) were elected with preference votes, so the one losing a GL seat is #13 Paul Smeulders, a personal friend of Jesse Klaver. As discussed before, Lilianne Ploumen (PvdA, #10) was also elected with preference votes. Another candidate who was low on the list but made it to parliament with preference votes is CDA #44 Maurits von Martels, a dairy farmer from Dalfsen, Overijssel -- he will make it in at the expense of Evert-Jan Slootweg (#19), who will probably be an MP anyway as the CDA are expected to be part of the next government.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Did all of his fellow dairy farmers want him in greatly?

[DavidB.]

In addition to the usual suspects Rucphen (40%, Western Noord-Brabant), Kerkrade (29%, South Limburg), Landgraaf (26%, South Limburg) and Brunssum (26%, South Limburg), Pekela in Eastern Groningen, the poorest municipality of the country, is now one of the five best municipalities for the PVV (24%). The PVV won 11% there. Another 24% voted for the SP. In 2012, 40% voted for the PvdA here; in 2017, however, this was only 8%. Rotterdam white flight working class suburb Spijkenisse (24%), some poor working-class municipalities in Limburg and Edam-Volendam complete the top 10 for the PVV.

[Angel of Death]

What was the Pirate Party's best municipality?

[DC Al Fine]

Fantastic! Please tell me more about SGP Youth; genuinely intrigued...

[DavidB.]

Fantastic! Please tell me more about SGP Youth; genuinely intrigued...

What is there to say? The Reformed have a lot of kids and are very "pillarized": they obviously have their own schools etc. At the same time they see that the rest of Dutch society adheres to different values. Because of the fact that they do feel connected to the country and its people, some of their youth get into politics. The SGPJ is the largest political youth organization of the country and they organize all sorts of activities.

What was the Pirate Party's best municipality?

I don't know for sure (NRC doesn't show maps for them), but the highest I've seen from them by clicking around on the basis of my gut feeling is 0.7% in Delft and Groningen.

[adma]

lolpvdalol

PvdA:2017::Liberal Party of Canada:2011

I still like the UK Lib Dems: 2015.  (The Iggy Grits still had a vestigial "P66" appeal in certain urban centres.)

[danny]

What was the Pirate Party's best municipality?

I don't know for sure (NRC doesn't show maps for them), but the highest I've seen from them by clicking around on the basis of my gut feeling is 0.7% in Delft and Groningen.

I tried looking for something else and Diemen is also 0.7%, but more accurately:
1: Delft: 0.741%
2: Groningen: 0.731%
3: Diemen: 0.681%

[Intell]

How did the native dutch working class, and the dutch poor vote?

[Angel of Death]

Poor Austria. Everybody is crediting the Dutch as the first to go against the populism that brought your Brexit and Trump.

[Tender Branson]

I wonder if Marcel Hirscher voted in this election as well.

Not many know that he has a Dutch mother and therefore has Dutch citizenship too.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=klWDAob3bRY

To the Dutch posters: How is his Dutch ?

[DavidB.]

I wonder if Marcel Hirscher voted in this election as well.

Not many know that he has a Dutch mother and therefore has Dutch citizenship too.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=klWDAob3bRY

To the Dutch posters: How is his Dutch ?

Haha, no idea who this is, but it sounds like he reads it off a teleprompter. He has an extremely strong German accent but his pronunciation is alright, I have no trouble understanding him.

[Tender Branson]

I wonder if Marcel Hirscher voted in this election as well.

Not many know that he has a Dutch mother and therefore has Dutch citizenship too.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=klWDAob3bRY

To the Dutch posters: How is his Dutch ?

Haha, no idea who this is, but it sounds like reads it off a teleprompter. He has an extremely strong German accent but his pronunciation is alright, I have no trouble understanding him.

"No idea who this is ..."



Spoken like a true lowlander.

[DavidB.]

Best DENK municipalities (>4%):
Schiedam: 8.2%
Rotterdam: 8.1%
Amsterdam: 7.5%
The Hague: 7.1%
Leerdam: 6.7%
Maassluis: 5.7%
Vlaardingen: 5.7%
Utrecht: 5.4%
Zaanstad: 5%
Gorinchem: 4.9%
Tiel: 4.5%
Almelo: 4.4%
Bergen op Zoom: 4.4%
Dordrecht: 4.3%
Culemborg: 4.2%
Roermond: 4.1%

[Tender Branson]

Best DENK municipalities (>4%):
Schiedam: 8.2%
Rotterdam: 8.1%
Amsterdam: 7.5%
The Hague: 7.1%
Leerdam: 6.7%
Maassluis: 5.7%
Vlaardingen: 5.7%
Utrecht: 5.4%
Zaanstad: 5%
Tiel: 4.5%
Almelo: 4.4%
Bergen op Zoom: 4.4%
Dordrecht: 4.3%
Culemborg: 4.2%
Roermond: 4.1%

Was there a strong correlation between the Turkish/migrant share in these cities and the Denk vote ?

For the bigger cities it's obvious, but what about smaller ones ?

[Intell]

How did the native dutch working class, and the dutch poor vote?

I also swear DavidB has me on ignore.

[jeron]

How did the native dutch working class, and the dutch poor vote?

I don't know the exact figures, but generally PVV and SP. although, there seem to be more people voting VVD in this category nowadays. PvdA has largely lost its support in this category, except for people aged 60+.

[DavidB.]

Was there a strong correlation between the Turkish/migrant share in these cities and the Denk vote ?

For the bigger cities it's obvious, but what about smaller ones ?

Strong correlation between the Muslim share of the population and the DENK vote, yes. Places like Leerdam are relatively small but have sizeable Moroccan and/or Turkish communities. It seems like Moroccans voted DENK at equal rates as Turks.

How did the native dutch working class, and the dutch poor vote?

I also swear DavidB has me on ignore.

I don't. PVV and SP probably got over 50% of the native Dutch working-class vote, with the PVV being much stronger than the SP in the urban West. Unfortunately I haven't seen any exit polls based on income. 50Plus will also be relatively strong here. The rest of the vote could have gone anywhere. VVD, CDA, PvdA, PvdD... and a lot of non-voters, of course. It seems like turnout in Dutch working-class areas was lower than in poor minority areas due to the DENK effect.

[rob in cal]

    What city or town has the biggest non-white voting percentage?  Also, any idea of the overall direction of the Dutch non-white electorate voting breakdown?  I'm guessing Denk did best among moslems, and GL among non-moslems?