Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Filuwaúrdjan]

moar maps...

[jeron]

...wait this is actually happening? Lawd.

You mean a VVD-CDA-D66-GL coalition? I still think the most likely scenario is that the talks collapse in a couple of weeks and a VVD-CDA-D66-CU cabinet will be formed, but I wouldn't be surprised anymore if we actually end up with VVD-CDA-D66-GL.

 a coalition with GL is probably more likely than a coalition with CU at the moment. D66 will do everything to keep GL in these talks and prevent a coalition with CU. if the talks with GL do fail, it will take many more months to form a government with CU (or another party).

[mvd10]

And we got ourselves another VVD scandal:

VVD chairman Henry Keizer apparently bought a company for 12.5 million euros (in 2012) while it was worth more than 30 million euros. Keizer was advisor of the association that owned the company at that time. The biggest part of the acquisition (12 million euros) was financed by dividends that would have been paid out to the company anyway, so Keizer actually only paid 500.000 euros for the company. To make things even worse: 2 other VVD politicians also were involved (Loek Hermans, who else?) since they were members of the supervisory board. As I already said one of them was Loek Hermans who stepped down as VVD senate leader in 2015 because of another scandal (mismanagement at a health care company where he was the chair of the supervisory board), but he remains very close to PM Rutte.

Keizer says everything was perfectly legal and for now the VVD doesn't see any reason to force him out.

Since 2008 21 VVD politicians have been convicted vs 5 for the PvdA and 3 for the CDA. I think the VVD will remain in power for a few extra years, but I'm afraid they will suffer a CDA 2010-like defeat when Rutte steps down as leader.

[DavidB.]

You never know, but I'm not really afraid of that (and I do want the VVD to remain the largest party). There was a type of CDA fatigue among right-wing voters that just isn't there yet with the VVD, and the VVD fit the average Dutch right-wing voter much better than was the case for the CDA in 2010. The corruption scandals are usually seen as incidents, not as part of a pattern -- and those who do view it as a pattern (the people in the comment sections of prominent news websites come to mind) are unlikely to vote VVD in the first place. All this may change, of course, but the corruption stuff has been going on for years already and I don't think the VVD have become less popular than in 2014 or so.

Meanwhile, the four parties at the negotiating table have decided to take an 11-day break -- not because of incompabilities but because of the fact that the campaign season has taken a big toll on all the party leaders. Informateur Schippers said that she is optimistic but that the talks could still go wrong too.

[DavidB.]

Geert Wilders is already campaigning for the 2018 local elections and tweeted a picture of the huge Essalam mosque with the text: "The PVV Rotterdam will -- as opposed to that coward [Leefbaar alderman] Joost Eerdmans who is sitting on [PvdA mayor] Aboutaleb's lap -- do everything to close the Essalam mosque!" Leefbaar Rotterdam is the largest party in Rotterdam, leading a coalition with CDA and D66; the PVV will mainly be targeting Leefbaar voters. In the past, Eerdmans and Wilders had a good relationship, but these days are clearly over now. Leefbaar is much more moderate than the PVV and does not oppose the existence of the Assalam mosque.

Meanwhile, in The Hague, the VVD have made a sharp turn to the left and have been pretty explicit about this. They will focus on more public transit and the environment. "You can call it the new VVD", local party leader Boudewijn Revis said. In 2014, the VVD The Hague went from 7 to 4 out of 45 seats with a clearly right-wing manifesto, though I think their loss was mainly caused by the unpopularity of the national government. A lot of their former voters went to D66, the largest party in The Hague; it seems they want to win back these voters.

[SunSt0rm]

There has also been talks about the positions of a new cabinet, althouh it doesnt mean that the coalition negotiations will be succesfully.  In a new coalition the VVD will get 4 ministers, CDA & D66 get 3 and GL will get 2.

According to a source (RTL) the VVD will of course get the prime minister, but also wants to get Social Affair, which Zijlstra wants to get it. CDA logically will get Finance, but also D66 have shown interest in it as well as Foreign Affair (it would of course be either at best for D66). D66 also want to get the Ministry of Economic Affair en Education, the latter Pechtold might get that position. Finally, GL has made it clear it wants to get the Ministry of Environment and Development Aid

[jeron]

There has also been talks about the positions of a new cabinet, althouh it doesnt mean that the coalition negotiations will be succesfully.  In a new coalition the VVD will get 4 ministers, CDA & D66 get 3 and GL will get 2.

According to a source (RTL) the VVD will of course get the prime minister, but also wants to get Social Affair, which Zijlstra wants to get it. CDA logically will get Finance, but also D66 have shown interest in it as well as Foreign Affair (it would of course be either at best for D66). D66 also want to get the Ministry of Economic Affair en Education, the latter Pechtold might get that position. Finally, GL has made it clear it wants to get the Ministry of Environment and Development Aid

It does seem like the four parties are getting closer a to a deal and if they did not think that they are able to succeed they'd have given up by now. Of course there is no real alternative except for a VVD-CDA-D66 minority government.

[Zanas]

There has also been talks about the positions of a new cabinet, althouh it doesnt mean that the coalition negotiations will be succesfully.  In a new coalition the VVD will get 4 ministers, CDA & D66 get 3 and GL will get 2.

According to a source (RTL) the VVD will of course get the prime minister, but also wants to get Social Affair, which Zijlstra wants to get it. CDA logically will get Finance, but also D66 have shown interest in it as well as Foreign Affair (it would of course be either at best for D66). D66 also want to get the Ministry of Economic Affair en Education, the latter Pechtold might get that position. Finally, GL has made it clear it wants to get the Ministry of Environment and Development Aid

It does seem like the four parties are getting closer a to a deal and if they did not think that they are able to succeed they'd have given up by now. Of course there is no real alternative except for a VVD-CDA-D66 minority government.

Is VVD-CDA-D66-CU no longer an alternative option ?

[DavidB.]

Yeah, it seems VVD-CDA-D66-GL is really going to happen. The option with CU only has 76 seats; given that splitoffs have become common and Rutte is tired of constantly having to strike deals with opposition parties, which he has had to do for the last seven years, it seems he now simply wants a stable majority government. People currently seem to be tired of politics and there has been little media attention for the formation process, but that will surely change once the final deal is known.

[SunSt0rm]

There has also been talks about the positions of a new cabinet, althouh it doesnt mean that the coalition negotiations will be succesfully.  In a new coalition the VVD will get 4 ministers, CDA & D66 get 3 and GL will get 2.

According to a source (RTL) the VVD will of course get the prime minister, but also wants to get Social Affair, which Zijlstra wants to get it. CDA logically will get Finance, but also D66 have shown interest in it as well as Foreign Affair (it would of course be either at best for D66). D66 also want to get the Ministry of Economic Affair en Education, the latter Pechtold might get that position. Finally, GL has made it clear it wants to get the Ministry of Environment and Development Aid

It does seem like the four parties are getting closer a to a deal and if they did not think that they are able to succeed they'd have given up by now. Of course there is no real alternative except for a VVD-CDA-D66 minority government.

Is VVD-CDA-D66-CU no longer an alternative option ?

Just a slight majority. Also some rumors says Pechtold (D66) has vetoed that option. Moreover, according to some VVD prominents there is not much difference between CU and GL on environment and immigration issues, which are the main obstacles now anyways.

Although I am not sold yet that VVD-CDA-D66-GL is going to happen

[DavidB.]

News: "green issues" cause difficulties at the negotiating table, particularly because of the extreme gap between CDA on the one hand and GL/D66 on the other hand. Flexible as always, Rutte is inclined to seek and accept compromises, but Buma continues to sell Pechtold and Klaver a "nay". While the VVD will be highly visible in the next government with Rutte as PM, the CDA will be in a more difficult electoral position and their voters strongly oppose packaging taxes, meat taxes, flight taxes and the like. And while the environment and climate change have never been as prominently featured in election campaigns as this year, the CDA were among the few parties that chose not to prioritize this issue. Buma can afford saying "no" because it is almost impossible to think of a properly functioning government that does not include the CDA.

[DL]

If GL joins this coalition, how long before their support in the polls inevitably crashes into low single digits (the fate that seems to befall all parties that agree to be junior partners in coalition governments)

[DavidB.]

If GL joins this coalition, how long before their support in the polls inevitably crashes into low single digits (the fate that seems to befall all parties that agree to be junior partners in coalition governments)

It will depend on the content of the final deal, but given the fact that governing in the Netherlands appears to come at an especially high price even compared to other European countries and that GL will have the least influence of all government parties, I wouldn't be surprised if this happened pretty soon.

[Former President tack50]

If GL joins this coalition, how long before their support in the polls inevitably crashes into low single digits (the fate that seems to befall all parties that agree to be junior partners in coalition governments)

Who would replace them, like they replaced PvdA? D66? PvdA rises again? A new party that follows the same fate? SP?

[DavidB.]

If GL joins this coalition, how long before their support in the polls inevitably crashes into low single digits (the fate that seems to befall all parties that agree to be junior partners in coalition governments)

Who would replace them, like they replaced PvdA? D66? PvdA rises again? A new party that follows the same fate? SP?

Way too early to say, but after the SP's terrible electoral performance after five years of VVD-PvdA austerity I wouldn't place any bets on them. Common sense dictates that at least the PvdD should profit in case GL become unpopular with their voters.

[Sozialliberal]

VVD-CDA-D66-GL seems like the rough equivalent of the German Jamaica coalition (CDU/CSU-Greens-FDP) to me, which some journalists consider an option at federal level this year. It would be funny if both the Netherlands and Germany had this rather peculiar government coalition set-up.

How I would compare the German parties with the Dutch parties:
CDU/CSU = cross between CDA and VVD
FDP = cross between VVD and D66
Grüne = cross between D66 and GL

[DC Al Fine]

How long will it be until we start seeing regular polls again? Once the government is announced? I want to see what's happened since the election.

[DavidB.]

How long will it be until we start seeing regular polls again? Once the government is announced? I want to see what's happened since the election.

Peil continues to conduct polls on a weekly basis. This was the last one, on May 7:


Not much has changed. There has been much silence on the government formation and there was a two-week parliamentary recess as well. Once there is a final deal, things will start shifting quickly.

[DavidB.]

This polling question gives interesting insight into the obvious differences among the electorates of the four parties that are currently forming a government.

"Would you find it to be acceptable if the formation results in the implementation of the following policy?" Answers are listed from most popular policy (among the entire electorate) to least popular policy. Investment in public transit is popular among voters of all four potential coalition parties, but increasing defense spending would already be unacceptable to 34% of GL voters. Making it easier for people to work as freelancers instead of contracted employees is not deemed problematic. While VVD, D66 and GL voters think it would be acceptable if the formation results in a law that would allow people to end their lives with assistance if they don't feel like living anymore, 54% of CDA voters think this is unacceptable. Other issues show even larger gaps between the four parties' electorates: where 91% of GL voters think implementing fiscal policies that decrease income inequality would be acceptable, only 25% of VVD voters and 47% of CDA voters think so. And while 68% of CDA voters and 63% of VVD voters think teaching children the national anthem in school is acceptable, only 27% of GL voters and 33% of D66 voters think so. The implementation of a variable road pricing system would be deemed acceptable by 85% of GL voters and 66% of D66 voters, but 57% of VVD voters and 73% of CDA voters think this would be unacceptable. Not lowering healthcare copayments would be deemed acceptable by 73% of VVD voters and 59% of D66 voters, but unacceptable by  73% of GL voters and 59% of CDA voters -- GL campaigned on abolishing copayments altogether, CDA on lowering them by 100 euros. Increasing the tax burden on citizens in order to reach the Paris climate goals, which is bound to happen if GL enter the government, would be acceptable to 66% of GL voters (who are the 34% who voted GL but don't think this is acceptable?) and 57% of D66 voters, but unacceptable to 75% of CDA voters and 79% of VVD voters. Increasing the total number of refugees that can be accommodated in the Netherlands (which seems a moot point given that we don't have an upper limit) is acceptable to 74% of GL voters, but only to 48% of D66 voters, 15% of VVD voters and 10% of CDA voters.

The final deal is bound to cause a lot of anger among the base of VVD, CDA and GL: there is simply no way to reconcile all these viewpoints.

[SunSt0rm]

Negotiations between the parties failed

[DavidB.]

Nice!

[SunSt0rm]

Negotiations failed because of immigration, wonder if its just between VVD/CDA and GL or also between VVD/CDA and D66 (& GL for sure). If the latter is the case, its going to be difficult as its almost certain VVD, CDA and D66 have to be included in almost any combination, but also because CU and PvdA are left on immigration.

[mvd10]

It's pretty sad if even VVD, CDA and D66 can't come to an agreement. For years everyone speculated that VVD-CDA-D66 would be the centre of a new cabinet and they are not that far away ideologically. The election result also was a windfall. The last couple of polls before the election showed results which would have made a formation much harder.

So what's next? VVD-CDA-D66-CU seems logical, but Pechtold really doesn't want that since such a cabinet might very well be a Balkenende II redux. I wouldn't be surprised if Pechtold currently prefers a CDA-D66-GL-SP-PvdA coalition over a VVD-CDA-D66-CU coalition, but Buma would almost certainly block such a coalition even if he becomes PM in that case. Some sources indicated that Buma was much more hostile to GL than Rutte, so I don't think he would join an actual centre-left cabinet.

EDIT: CDA-D66-GL-SP-PvdA doesn't even have a majority lol. They also would need CU in that case. Not happening.

[SunSt0rm]

It's pretty sad if even VVD, CDA and D66 can't come to an agreement. For years everyone speculated that VVD-CDA-D66 would be the centre of a new cabinet and they are not that far away ideologically. The election result also was a windfall. The last couple of polls before the election showed results which would have made a formation much harder.

So what's next? VVD-CDA-D66-CU seems logical, but Pechtold really doesn't want that since such a cabinet might very well be a Balkenende II redux. I wouldn't be surprised if Pechtold currently prefers a CDA-D66-GL-SP-PvdA coalition over a VVD-CDA-D66-CU coalition, but Buma would almost certainly block such a coalition even if he becomes PM in that case. Some sources indicated that Buma was much more hostile to GL than Rutte, so I don't think he would join an actual centre-left cabinet.

Its very sad indeed this was my prefered coalition, although I hope it was just between VVD/CDA and GL and not with D66 as well. VVD-CDA-D66-CU is going to be very difficult especially on social issues and almost suicidal for D66. VVD-CDA-D66-PvDA will be suicidal for PvDA and a centre left combination is not going to happen when the differences between CDA & GL are too big.

A minority government is also an option now.

If the differences between VVD/CDA and D66 are also too big. The final combination can also be VVD-CDA-PVV-SGP-50+ which is going to be ungly

[DavidB.]

Given that the differences between GL and CDA appeared to be the biggest stumbling block, I highly doubt any combination of these parties without the VVD would truly be more successful. I'm even inclined to think a combination without the CDA may have a better chance of succeeding, but it's more likely that Pechtold will just have to bite the bullet. I wouldn't rule out a VVD-CDA-D66 minority government either. D66 will at least want to save their progressive crown jewels and exactly this will be difficult with CU.