Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[SunSt0rm]

Given that the differences between GL and CDA appeared to be the biggest stumbling block, I highly doubt any combination of these parties without the VVD would truly be more successful. I'm even inclined to think a combination without the CDA may have a better chance of succeeding, but it's more likely that Pechtold will just have to bite the bullet. I wouldn't rule out a VVD-CDA-D66 minority government either. D66 will at least want to save their progressive crown jewels and exactly this will be difficult with CU.

Without CDA? lol

so VVD-D66-GL-SP or VVD-D66-GL-PvdA-CU?

[mvd10]

I suppose a minority coalition is the best option now. It might even be good for Dutch democracy. I don't think there are much countries with such strict party discipline and I certainly don't think it was meant this way.

[Diouf]

So the ball is basically in Pechtold's half now. Does he play the responsible centrist and agree to a coalition with VVD, CDA and the small Christian parties in some way, which will very likely end up in a significant loss of left-liberal voters. Or do they refuse to take part in such majorities, which makes coalition building almost impossible (and probably new elections?)

If it does become VVD-CDS-D66 minority, how much leeway do you think it would get? Would it only be supported by the Christian parties, whom will require most policy to be agreed with them. Or could it get supported by more parties in the name of stability? The latter option would also then allow the government more flexibility in different policy areas, e.g. migration & economy with centre-right, climate & education with centre-left.

[mvd10]

I guess the Christian parties would be the main source of support, but PvdA and GL don't seem like the kind of parties who will go in scorched earth opposition if they can get something nice in return. But the main problem I have with a minority coalition is tax reform. The Christian parties (and to a lesser extent the CDA) mainly want to close the gap between one-earners and two-earners (one-earners pay higher average rates) which would be unacceptable to D66 and VVD because it will probably end up lowering labor force participation. PvdA and GL will want some redistribution which will be opposed by VVD and CDA. I don't think a minority coalition can pass tax reform. And the Dutch tax system really needs to be reformed.

Other important reforms also might be postponed. But like you said, it would also allow flexibility for VVD-CDA-D66 which looks very attractive. If a minority coalition enables them to cherry pick the best parts from GL and the Christian parties I'm all for it

[DavidB.]

If it does become VVD-CDS-D66 minority, how much leeway do you think it would get? Would it only be supported by the Christian parties, whom will require most policy to be agreed with them. Or could it get supported by more parties in the name of stability? The latter option would also then allow the government more flexibility in different policy areas, e.g. migration & economy with centre-right, climate & education with centre-left.

I think they would continue like VVD and PvdA did in the last four years: striking deals with various parties on a case-by-case basis. Because of the fact that the last government did not have a majority in the Senate, it was essentially a minority government too, the only difference being that a VVD-CDA-D66 government can be voted out by a parliamentary majority. But CU and SGP would be very reluctant in supporting a motion of no confidence and causing new elections if a VVD-CDA-D66 government is formed.

CDA and VVD value traditional political patterns (of which majority governments are an important part) very highly, though, so I expect an attempt to form a VVD-CDA-D66-CU government first.

[SunSt0rm]

On fiscal and economic issues, the minority coalition will rely on CU & SGP. On issues about the EU, PvdA and GL will support them. On social issues they rely on PvdA and GL as well, although CU and SGP may say there will be consequences for other deals. On migration, its going to be difficult. Moving towards PVV will be unacceptable for the D66 and I dont think they are willing to support the government in any way.

[mvd10]

I'm not sure whether a VVD-CDA-D66 minority coalition would be much better for D66 than a VVD-CDA-D66-CU coalition btw. I just remembered that CU threatened to withdraw all their support for the VVD-PvdA coalition if a law making illegality prosecutable passed. I think they would do the same thing with D66's euthanasia law. Stopping D66's euthanasia proposal probably is much more important to CU.

[DavidB.]

I'm not sure whether a VVD-CDA-D66 minority coalition would be much better for D66 than a VVD-CDA-D66-CU coalition btw. I just remembered that CU threatened to withdraw all their support for the VVD-PvdA coalition if a law making illegality prosecutable passed. I think they would do the same thing with D66's euthanasia law. Stopping D66's euthanasia proposal probably is much more important to CU.

Sure, but if a motion of no confidence against the government is introduced over this issue, other parties, such as GL, would not vote along. I truly doubt CU would support all motions of no confidence after a new euthanasia law passes. But in any case, I agree that this would doubtlessly be a continuous threat to the government's stability and it gives Rutte much less leeway than in a traditional majority government. He is tired of the wheeling and dealing with parties outside the government that he has had to do for the last seven years, but he may have to do it again.

[SunSt0rm]

I'm not sure whether a VVD-CDA-D66 minority coalition would be much better for D66 than a VVD-CDA-D66-CU coalition btw. I just remembered that CU threatened to withdraw all their support for the VVD-PvdA coalition if a law making illegality prosecutable passed. I think they would do the same thing with D66's euthanasia law. Stopping D66's euthanasia proposal probably is much more important to CU.

Thats what I also expect. But I think D66 need at least one social trophy, otherwise it would be suicidal for them to enter a coalition with CU.

Its very complicated now, one party has to commit suicide in order to get a coalition I suspect

[mvd10]

I'm not sure whether a VVD-CDA-D66 minority coalition would be much better for D66 than a VVD-CDA-D66-CU coalition btw. I just remembered that CU threatened to withdraw all their support for the VVD-PvdA coalition if a law making illegality prosecutable passed. I think they would do the same thing with D66's euthanasia law. Stopping D66's euthanasia proposal probably is much more important to CU.

Sure, but if a motion of no confidence against the government is introduced over this issue, other parties, such as GL, would not vote along. I truly doubt CU would support any and all motions of no confidence after a new euthanasia law passes. But in any case, I agree that this would doubtlessly be a continuous threat to the government's stability and it gives Rutte much less leeway than in a traditional majority government. He is tired of the wheeling and dealing with parties outside the government that he has had to do for the last seven years, but he may have to do it again.

A motion of no confidence over this issue would not pass, but try governing in a minority coalition without CU/SGP support on some issues for 4 years. It basically would be VVD-CDA-D66-(PvdA/GL).

I'm not sure whether a VVD-CDA-D66 minority coalition would be much better for D66 than a VVD-CDA-D66-CU coalition btw. I just remembered that CU threatened to withdraw all their support for the VVD-PvdA coalition if a law making illegality prosecutable passed. I think they would do the same thing with D66's euthanasia law. Stopping D66's euthanasia proposal probably is much more important to CU.

Thats what I also expect. But I think D66 need at least one social trophy, otherwise it would be suicidal for them to enter a coalition with CU.

Its very complicated now, one party has to commit suicide in order to get a coalition I suspect

I see what you did there

[DavidB.]

Its very complicated now, one party has to commit suicide in order to get a coalition I suspect

And I think it will have to be D66. CU can simply stay out. If D66 stay out, an early election seems almost unavoidable.

Also yeah lol @ that.

[mvd10]

Pechtold wants a coalition with a ''broad majority'' (read: ''please don't do it Mark, you know VVD-CDA-D66-CU will fk me up'').

[DavidB.]

Pechtold wants a coalition with a ''broad majority'' (read: ''please don't do it Mark, you know VVD-CDA-D66-CU will fk me up'').

VVD-CDA-PVV-D66 has one, but I don't think that's what he means...

[SunSt0rm]

wtf, GL didn't want refugees deals that are similar to the Turkish deal, but they want to accept the refugees here.

[DC Al Fine]

Pechtold wants a coalition with a ''broad majority'' (read: ''please don't do it Mark, you know VVD-CDA-D66-CU will fk me up'').

VVD-CDA-PVV-D66 has one, but I don't think that's what he means...

Hehehe

[Dutch Conservative]

Great news! Never a government with GL in it please!

I think the next possibility will be VVD-CDA-D66-CU. I do not think that will succeed, because of the differences between CU and D66.

Then: chances of a minority cabinet also very low. I do not believe there is much to be gained for CDA in such a coalition, because they will always be outvoted on liberal issues (PvdA/GL will never support the CDA-agenda). I just can't think of anything thats in it for CDA. Also because on issues to the right I dont expect the PVV to cooperate.

A coalition with the PVV is unthinkable, which remains troubling because 1.3 million voters aren't heard.

Conclusion: new elections Although I dont believe the outcome will be very different.

[DC Al Fine]

Great news! Never a government with GL in it please!

Given the nature of Dutch politics, wouldn't it be better for you if they were an impotent junior coalition partner? They would suffer massive losses if that were the case.

[mvd10]

Great news! Never a government with GL in it please!

Given the nature of Dutch politics, wouldn't it be better for you if they were an impotent junior coalition partner? They would suffer massive losses if that were the case.

That's the reason GL would make big demands. Sure, it would be tempting to see Flawless Beautiful Jesse (the hatred is strong) get squashed on election night 2021, but I'm not sure whether that's worth another round of income redistribution and a progressive immigration/refugee policy which will inevitably lead to another PVV surge.

[Dutch Conservative]

Great news! Never a government with GL in it please!

Given the nature of Dutch politics, wouldn't it be better for you if they were an impotent junior coalition partner? They would suffer massive losses if that were the case.

That's the reason GL would make big demands. Sure, it would be tempting to see Flawless Beautiful Jesse (the hatred is strong) get squashed on election night 2021, but I'm not sure whether that's worth another round of income redistribution and a progressive immigration/refugee policy which will inevitably lead to another PVV surge.

Hear, hear! To much at stake.

[Former President tack50]

Its very complicated now, one party has to commit suicide in order to get a coalition I suspect

And I think it will have to be D66. CU can simply stay out. If D66 stay out, an early election seems almost unavoidable.

Also yeah lol @ that.

Could Rutte just lead a VVD minority government (or VVD-CDA) and pick his allies on a law by law basis?

That would be an incredibly unstable government, but seems better than new elections.

Also, calling it now, if there are new elections VVD will increase quite a bit.

[Zinneke]

Its very complicated now, one party has to commit suicide in order to get a coalition I suspect

And I think it will have to be D66. CU can simply stay out. If D66 stay out, an early election seems almost unavoidable.

Also yeah lol @ that.

Could Rutte just lead a VVD minority government (or VVD-CDA) and pick his allies on a law by law basis?

He will probably end up doing VVD-CDA-D66 minority government. I don't think calling new elections is what he wants.

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Well, another corruption scandal appears to have not harmed them, but they aren't attracting anybody to their left anytime soon. Maybe a CDA tactical vote like in 2012.

For me, the big "winners" would be the non-traditionals, especially if GL maintain their momentum or SP change their leadership to someone even resembling Marijnissen 2006. Then you will have a campaign from the traditional parties that could touch upon what Samsom was saying in 2012: actually serving out a term in government with responsibility rather than instability and collapse which is all the NL had known from Fortuyn's "revolution" to Rutte II. I think in that scenario and the current climate the populists win the argument.

David of anderen nederlanders, bestaat de NKO niet meer? heb hun site gekeken en ze hebben niks sinds 2006 gepubliceerd. Ik zoek een studie net zoals dit van de KUL voor Belgie 2014:
https://soc.kuleuven.be/ceso/ispo/downloads/Het%20profiel%20van%20de%20Vlaamse%20kiezers%20in%202014.pdf

[ApatheticAustrian]

are there btw recent dutch polls, since the election? (those usually incease/"enforce" the election results)

[mvd10]

Its very complicated now, one party has to commit suicide in order to get a coalition I suspect

And I think it will have to be D66. CU can simply stay out. If D66 stay out, an early election seems almost unavoidable.

Also yeah lol @ that.

Could Rutte just lead a VVD minority government (or VVD-CDA) and pick his allies on a law by law basis?

He will probably end up doing VVD-CDA-D66 minority government. I don't think calling new elections is what he wants.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Well, another corruption scandal appears to have not harmed them, but they aren't attracting anybody to their left anytime soon. Maybe a CDA tactical vote like in 2012.

For me, the big "winners" would be the non-traditionals, especially if GL maintain their momentum or SP change their leadership to someone even resembling Marijnissen 2006. Then you will have a campaign from the traditional parties that could touch upon what Samsom was saying in 2012: actually serving out a term in government with responsibility rather than instability and collapse which is all the NL had known from Fortuyn's "revolution" to Rutte II. I think in that scenario and the current climate the populists win the argument.

David of anderen nederlanders, bestaat de NKO niet meer? heb hun site gekeken en ze hebben niks sinds 2006 gepubliceerd. Ik zoek een studie net zoals dit van de KUL voor Belgie 2014:
https://soc.kuleuven.be/ceso/ispo/downloads/Het%20profiel%20van%20de%20Vlaamse%20kiezers%20in%202014.pdf

Volgens mij was er in 2012 wel een maar ik heb in 2017 nog niets gevonden

are there btw recent dutch polls, since the election? (those usually incease/"enforce" the election results)

Peil.nl does a weekly poll and almost nothing changed. I'm not sure about the other pollsters.

EenVandaag did a poll on the formation failure. 39% dissapointed, 48% relieved. 59% wants CU as fourth partner, but 53% also would accept PvdA. PvdA voters (most of them would still vote PvdA if they started WW3 methinks) want to govern 49-44. 58% of SP voters want their party to consider a coalition with the VVD lol.

[SunSt0rm]

New elections wont change the formation.  A possible majority of VVD-CDA-D66 in the parliament does not have a majority in the senate. A new government need to be consisted of at least four parties because of the current senate. Moreover, I think new election will probably not increase the seats of established parties as VVD & D66 already had a good result, whereas PVV, SP and 50+ get a dissapointed result.

The only scenario I might see it benefiting is that the PvdA will recover again and have confidence to govern again. Aboutaleb can do that, but chances are very small with Asscher as leader.

[DavidB.]

New elections won't change anything, the Spain/Croatia scenario. But I hope negotiations with the CU will lead to a stable government.

@Rogier: Fortunately, the NKO still exists; it just takes some time, up to a year or even more, to come up with all the data for an election. For all NKO studies until (and including) 2012, see http://www.dpes.nl/nl/.

are there btw recent dutch polls, since the election? (those usually incease/"enforce" the election results)

Only peil.nl polls; minor changes. VVD -1, CDA -1, PVV -1, SP -1, 50Plus +1, D66 +1, FvD +2.