Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[jeron]

Segers says chances of talks on VVD-CDA-D66-CU haven't become larger and would require a "miracle". Meanwhile, the on Atlas much beloved PvdA MP Dijsselbloem said his party will not be part of any government. This basically leaves us with VVD-CDA-D66-GL as the only option with a majority. Painful for VVD and CDA.

The chances for that coalition were small from the start. D66 made clear to VVD and CDA in March that it was not interested in such a coalition. Of course that did not change after the talks with GL failed.

[jeron]

Rotterdam mayor Ahmed Aboutaleb (PvdA) thinks there should be a center-right government with the PVV. "Voters said: the center-right has to do it. It seems logical that all parties from the center to the right negotiate. The PVV is part of the right, so they will have to find a way to do it with each other. I think that's fair to voters." Aboutaleb also wants a stricter immigration policy and says: "You can only take in refugees to the extent that it is accepted by European citizens. Solidarity does not mean even more uncontrolled migration. Instead of taking in more refugees, we should provide much more development aid. How much are we willing to contribute to improving conditions elsewhere in the world in order to end undesirable types of migration?"He thinks foreigners should have the possibility to apply for jobs in the Netherlands from Dutch embassies abroad.

Aboutaleb is one of the few PvdA-members who actually make sense sometimes. I believe he sees the problems in his own city, rather than the PvdA-elite who seem to live in an alternative universe. I doubt Rutte and Buma will ever be in for a PVV-coalition.

I wouldn't be in for a coalition with someone who blamed me for terrorist attacks in the UK

[Pericles]

Will there be another election?

[DavidB.]

Never say never, but I really doubt it, and a new election is likely to produce a similar outcome anyway.

Tjeenk Willink still isn't sure VVD-CDA-D66-GL will work due to the enormous differences on immigration, income inequality and green issues, so more talks are going to follow for him to see if it is worth trying. There have been separate VVD-CDA-D66 talks too in order to undo some of the damage that was done by D66 when they made negotiations with CU impossible.

[SunSt0rm]

The SGP has declared its demand for a possible minority government. It says it will not support such a government in any way when it supports euthanasia, legalize soft drugs and legalizing multieple Parenthood (Dutch: Meerouderschap, dont know how to translate it)

[DavidB.]

In the category "OMFG": 7600 general election votes in the municipality of Boxmeer were not taken into account by the electoral council when calculating the election result. The ballots had been counted, but a mistake was made at the "constituency" (Dutch: kieskring) level in Den Bosch where all the vote totals of the municipality in the constituency were added up (manually, this time, and not by using electronic software): the instructions given by the Ministry of the Interior were not followed. Only votes for the first four parties on the ballot, i.e. VVD, PvdA, PVV and SP, were taken into account.

The final election result cannot be changed anymore, but calculations show that these votes would not have made a difference.

[DavidB.]

Seems like GreenRight are going to give it another go.

[jeron]

Seems like GreenRight are going to give it another go.

No surprise, there has not been a real alternative

[Zinneke]

Seems like GreenRight are going to give it another go.

No surprise, there has not been a real alternative

I imagine they will form it and then when the next international crisis happens it will collapse like a house of cards.

Rutte is the new Balkende.

[DavidB.]

Rutte is the new Balkende.

He very much isn't. He's been much better at maintaining his personal relations with other leaders and cooperating with other parties, and despite everybody expecting Rutte-II to collapse early there were fairly few coalition crises (bed-bad-brood being the only major one). Of course GreenRight -- if it happens, which remains to be seen -- could collapse early, but that's the norm in Dutch politics.

Seems like GreenRight are going to give it another go.

No surprise, there has not been a real alternative

There was, but Pechtold shot it down. Still hoping Rutte and Buma give Pechtold tit for tat and dump Klaver. A minority government would be a much more viable option than a government including CDA, VVD and Wijnand Duyvendak.

[Zinneke]

Rutte is the new Balkende.

He very much isn't. He's been much better at maintaining his personal relations with other leaders and cooperating with other parties, and despite everybody expecting Rutte-II to collapse early there were fairly few coalition crises (bed-bad-brood being the only major one). Of course GreenRight -- if it happens, which remains to be seen -- could collapse early, but that's the norm in Dutch politics.

Fair point - I meant in the sense that he will have to contend with rather sensitive parties that collapse governments for sport. GL will not make a mistake like Kunduz again so any GroenRechts government will not last too long IMO.
[/quote]

[jeron]

Rutte is the new Balkende.

He very much isn't. He's been much better at maintaining his personal relations with other leaders and cooperating with other parties, and despite everybody expecting Rutte-II to collapse early there were fairly few coalition crises (bed-bad-brood being the only major one). Of course GreenRight -- if it happens, which remains to be seen -- could collapse early, but that's the norm in Dutch politics.

Seems like GreenRight are going to give it another go.

No surprise, there has not been a real alternative

There was, but Pechtold shot it down. Still hoping Rutte and Buma give Pechtold tit for tat and dump Klaver. A minority government would be a much more viable option than a government including CDA, VVD and Wijnand Duyvendak.

That's why it was no real alternative, because D66 didn't want it and Pechtold made that clear from the start. Even if there had been coalition talks they would have failed after a couple of weeks.

[jeron]

Rutte is the new Balkende.

He very much isn't. He's been much better at maintaining his personal relations with other leaders and cooperating with other parties, and despite everybody expecting Rutte-II to collapse early there were fairly few coalition crises (bed-bad-brood being the only major one). Of course GreenRight -- if it happens, which remains to be seen -- could collapse early, but that's the norm in Dutch politics.

Fair point - I meant in the sense that he will have to contend with rather sensitive parties that collapse governments for sport. GL will not make a mistake like Kunduz again so any GroenRechts government will not last too long IMO.

[/quote]

The VVD/PvdA coalition was stable because Rutte made sure relations remained good. Balkenende essentially called Bos a liar during the election campaign ('you turn and you are dishonest') and it strained relations for the next 3 years. Balkenende was a weak leader who was never able to keep any coalition together.

[mvd10]

Balkenende wasn't a strong leader but I still think he's underrated. He managed to pass some highly controversial reforms in his second cabinet (2003-2006) and somehow managed to stay on for 8 years even though he originally started out as the CDA's sacrificial lamb in 2002 and nobody ever considered him a strong leader. Balkenende probably was one of the least experienced politicians to ever become Dutch PM. He only was an MP for 4 years when he became PM.

[DC Al Fine]

Balkenende wasn't a strong leader but I still think he's underrated. He managed to pass some highly controversial reforms in his second cabinet (2003-2006) and somehow managed to stay on for 8 years even though he originally started out as the CDA's sacrificial lamb in 2002 and nobody ever considered him a strong leader. Balkenende probably was one of the least experienced politicians to ever become Dutch PM. He only was an MP for 4 years when he became PM.

Why was the CDA picking a sacrificial lamb in 2002? After eight years of purple government, wouldn't CDA be thinking they could retake power?

[Zinneke]

Balkenende wasn't a strong leader but I still think he's underrated. He managed to pass some highly controversial reforms in his second cabinet (2003-2006) and somehow managed to stay on for 8 years even though he originally started out as the CDA's sacrificial lamb in 2002 and nobody ever considered him a strong leader. Balkenende probably was one of the least experienced politicians to ever become Dutch PM. He only was an MP for 4 years when he became PM.

Why was the CDA picking a sacrificial lamb in 2002? After eight years of purple government, wouldn't CDA be thinking they could retake power?

CDA were not predicted to win the election. It was only after the local elections and an infamous dressing down of the governmental parties by Fortuyn both on live TV and his book that the campaign became about immigration and public security. Balkende had gambled on this earlier.

The CDA were still a party in turmoil throughout this period.

[DC Al Fine]

Balkenende wasn't a strong leader but I still think he's underrated. He managed to pass some highly controversial reforms in his second cabinet (2003-2006) and somehow managed to stay on for 8 years even though he originally started out as the CDA's sacrificial lamb in 2002 and nobody ever considered him a strong leader. Balkenende probably was one of the least experienced politicians to ever become Dutch PM. He only was an MP for 4 years when he became PM.

Why was the CDA picking a sacrificial lamb in 2002? After eight years of purple government, wouldn't CDA be thinking they could retake power?

CDA were not predicted to win the election. It was only after the local elections and an infamous dressing down of the governmental parties by Fortuyn both on live TV and his book that the campaign became about immigration and public security. Balkende had gambled on this earlier.

The CDA were still a party in turmoil throughout this period.

Why is that though. I know Dutch politics weren't as volatile then, but one would think there would be government fatigue after two full terms of a government. What other major party could voters flow to besides CDA and Fortuyn's outfit? Or was the government just that popular?

[DavidB.]

Negotiations terminated again

[mvd10]

Balkenende wasn't a strong leader but I still think he's underrated. He managed to pass some highly controversial reforms in his second cabinet (2003-2006) and somehow managed to stay on for 8 years even though he originally started out as the CDA's sacrificial lamb in 2002 and nobody ever considered him a strong leader. Balkenende probably was one of the least experienced politicians to ever become Dutch PM. He only was an MP for 4 years when he became PM.

Why was the CDA picking a sacrificial lamb in 2002? After eight years of purple government, wouldn't CDA be thinking they could retake power?

CDA were not predicted to win the election. It was only after the local elections and an infamous dressing down of the governmental parties by Fortuyn both on live TV and his book that the campaign became about immigration and public security. Balkende had gambled on this earlier.

The CDA were still a party in turmoil throughout this period.

Why is that though. I know Dutch politics weren't as volatile then, but one would think there would be government fatigue after two full terms of a government. What other major party could voters flow to besides CDA and Fortuyn's outfit? Or was the government just that popular?

I believe the government was quite popular before Fortuyn came along. The VVD actually polled at 45+ seats in 2001 I believe. And the CDA really sucked at being in opposition.

Anyway, attempts to restart negotiations between VVD-CDA-D66-GL failed. Minority cabinet here we come?

Damn, David beat me at it

[DavidB.]

Purple govts were always reasonably popular but there had always been concerns below the surface on healthcare waiting lists, infrastructure/traffic jams, immigration/integration. It's just that none of them were convincingly addressed by mainstream political parties; once Fortuyn did it, the entire system was shaken up. Balkenende provided calm and moderacy in a time when all other party leaders came up with the most ridiculous Godwins and won the trust of the public.

[mvd10]

So the options basically are:

VVD-CDA-D66-CU

CU has repeatedly said they are interested in joining a coalition, but only if the other parties want it. It would be a logical option, if not for the fact that D66 violently killed it a couple of weeks ago. Would be humiliating for Pechtold.

VVD-CDA-D66-PvdA

Never underestimate the PvdA's capacity for self-destruction but I don't think they will do this.

VVD-CDA-D66-SP

Not going to happen. Can you imagine Halbe Zijlstra and Renske Leijten in one cabinet? I can't.

Minority cabinet

Should be a logical option, but (I quote David) when the Dutch hear minority cabinet they hear instability.

CDA-D66-GL-SP-PvdA-some other party

Not going to happen, suicide for the CDA. Buma would get the honour of being the last CDA PM ever though .

New elections

Now atlas junkies would love it, but I really don't think the voters will appreciate it. It's hard to see who would benefit from new elections. Do the voters decide to vote for VVD-CDA-D66 to end the gridlock? Are voters fed up with it and will they vote PVV/SP? Will Corbynmentum go to the Netherlands and drive young people to vote for GL? Nobody knows. The PVV's moment probably is gone. I don't see a Corbyn situation in the Netherlands because the circumstances in the UK were completely different (Brexit) and I also don't see the voters rewarding the establishment parties for this gridlock. I think parties should avoid this.

[DavidB.]

Yeah, solid analysis mvd10. Really can't see the option with CU happening anymore, but hope to be proven wrong. Most likely option VVD-CDA-D66 minority, I'd say. New elections can't be ruled out (this would be the most fun) -- but in that case a new deadlock cannot be ruled out either, as a similar fragmented result is highly likely. Options with SP and PvdA simply aren't happening (though never say never with the PvdA...).

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

If hypothetically fvD were to break out in the next election, could they be a more viable coalition partner than PVV?

[mvd10]

If hypothetically fvD were to break out in the next election, could they be a more viable coalition partner than PVV?

Their main talking point is breaking up the ''party cartel''. I can't see them joining it, but they still are much more viable than the PVV. They repeatedly suggested a technocratic cabinet which would seek different majorities for each proposal. And I strongly suspect there will be internal troubles in FvD, both Hiddema and Baudet have huge ego's.

But we have to keep the senate in mind. VVD-CDA-D66 doesn't have a majority there. There is no viable coalition with a majority in the senate that doesn't currently have a majority in parliament. New elections won't solve that since the next senate elections are in 2019 (the senate isn't directly elected, but the provincial elections are de facto senate elections).

[DavidB.]

In the future I could see FvD provide support to a government from the outside, which would be exemplary for the type of change that they want: fewer backroom deals and less detailed coalition agreements, more wheeling and dealing in parliament (but there's a fine line between wheeling and dealing in parliament and creating the impression that backroom deals have only become more important; in some way a detailed coalition agreement is actually pretty transparent). But they are still very new, and of course they would be vulnerable to criticism that they would be "selling out" on the wish to completely transform the system, just like D66 have. It may happen if the next election takes place in 2021 and FvD do really well, but it's unlikely if there's a snap election.

As for the government formation, I don't have a crystal ball (as has been proved numerous times on these forums) and will perhaps be proven wrong as there are always new developments, but I think the following options are possible now. From most to least likely:

1. VVD-CDA-D66 minority
2. VVD-CDA-D66-CU
3. New election
4. VVD-CDA minority
5. VVD-CDA-D66-PvdA

Option 2 will doubtlessly be tried again now (which may take another week or two), but I don't think it will happen given the way the first attempt ended.