Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[DavidB.]

Tjeenk Willink giving a press conference now, speaks freely and sounds really disappointed. Pretty clear Klaver walked away. Tjeenk Willink made an outline for a legal framework for potential future migration deals that VVD, CDA and D66 agreed to, but GL did not. He called the issue "relatively trivial" but respects Klaver's decision.

[DavidB.]

So Tjeenk Willink's legal framework is basically standing EU policy and uses the same standards as the already implemented EU-Turkey deal. Not only VVD and CDA, but also D66 accepted it, and upon public release of the information even the most important pro-refugee NGO in the Netherlands today said it was, quote, "quite good". Klaver remained skeptical until last week Thursday, when experts on international law and diplomats explained everything in detail. Klaver suddenly turned, appeared to accept it ("if this is it, then it sounds acceptable to me", to the astonishment of the other party leaders), but then he went back to GL and it seems as if the party simply got cold feet and didn't want to be in a coalition, because on Friday Klaver suddenly came up with the additional demand of taking in 25,000 African refugees, which was completely new and left VVD, CDA and D66 bewildered. Klaver retracted that demand during the weekend, but the atmosphere had turned sour. On Monday Klaver came up with new additional demands, which proved to be the final straw.

Last time around Rutte, Buma and Pechtold played nice, but now they have been clear that they are pretty mad (and all the details were leaked to De Telegraaf, which didn't happen last time around). Rutte added that the most left-wing governments of Europe, in Portugal and Greece, accept this legal framework and said he was "astonished". Pechtold said that it "bordered on a lack of political will". Not a good look for GL, would have been better for them if the negotiations had collapsed over a green (environment) or left (income inequality) issue.

[jeron]

In the future I could see FvD provide support to a government from the outside, which would be exemplary for the type of change that they want: fewer backroom deals and less detailed coalition agreements, more wheeling and dealing in parliament (but there's a fine line between wheeling and dealing in parliament and creating the impression that backroom deals have only become more important; in some way a detailed coalition agreement is actually pretty transparent). But they are still very new, and of course they would be vulnerable to criticism that they would be "selling out" on the wish to completely transform the system, just like D66 have. It may happen if the next election takes place in 2021 and FvD do really well, but it's unlikely if there's a snap election.

As for the government formation, I don't have a crystal ball (as has been proved numerous times on these forums) and will perhaps be proven wrong as there are always new developments, but I think the following options are possible now. From most to least likely:

1. VVD-CDA-D66 minority
2. VVD-CDA-D66-CU
3. New election
4. VVD-CDA minority
5. VVD-CDA-D66-PvdA

Option 2 will doubtlessly be tried again now (which may take another week or two), but I don't think it will happen given the way the first attempt ended.

Option 5 is much more likely than option 3 or option 4. Option 2 will be tried, but will fail within less than a month, There will huge pressure on PvdA to start talks afterwards and they eventually budge. After that Asscher can make the case that everything has been tried and for the sake of the country etc.

[DavidB.]

Option 5 is much more likely than option 3 or option 4. Option 2 will be tried, but will fail within less than a month, There will huge pressure on PvdA to start talks afterwards and they eventually budge. After that Asscher can make the case that everything has been tried and for the sake of the country etc.

5 is a bit of a wildcard, I'll give you that. It could happen all of a sudden. But I really doubt it. They say they chose for the country's interest in 2012 and will now choose for the party's interest. Governing again, with VVD-CDA-D66 of all parties, would be so incredibly damaging that I'm inclined to believe Asscher (though I know that's dangerous with a PvdA politician) and just really don't expect it to happen.

[Zinneke]

So Tjeenk Willink's legal framework is basically standing EU policy and uses the same standards as the already implemented EU-Turkey deal. Not only VVD and CDA, but also D66 accepted it, and upon public release of the information even the most important pro-refugee NGO in the Netherlands today said it was, quote, "quite good". Klaver remained skeptical until last week Thursday, when experts on international law and diplomats explained everything in detail. Klaver suddenly turned, appeared to accept it ("if this is it, then it sounds acceptable to me", to the astonishment of the other party leaders), but then he went back to GL and it seems as if the party simply got cold feet and didn't want to be in a coalition, because on Friday Klaver suddenly came up with the additional demand of taking in 25,000 African refugees, which was completely new and left VVD, CDA and D66 bewildered. Klaver retracted that demand during the weekend, but the atmosphere had turned sour. On Monday Klaver came up with new additional demands, which proved to be the final straw.

Last time around Rutte, Buma and Pechtold played nice, but now they have been clear that they are pretty mad (and all the details were leaked to De Telegraaf, which didn't happen last time around). Rutte added that the most left-wing governments of Europe, in Portugal and Greece, accept this legal framework and said he was "astonished". Pechtold said that it "bordered on a lack of political will". Not a good look for GL, would have been better for them if the negotiations had collapsed over a green (environment) or left (income inequality) issue.

There's really no need to spin this (that's directed at the Telegraaf, not you). If I understood it correctly, GL did not like the Turkey-deal in place. End of first round negotiations. The 3 amigos then come back to GL after negotiating with CU and tell them that there is a deal on the table that replicates the Turkey deal, but in Libya. And like with all negotiations, Klaver goes "well yes no maybe." But You can't seriously expect GL to accept this and not lose their credibility with their electorate?

That's exactly the kind of foreign policy decision I was referring to. The kind that GL could collapse the government for, so its better then that they don't enter government with these three parties. The reason Klaver is getting cold feet is precisely because he can't be arsed having to do this on a case by case basis in foreign policy, and rather work with like minded people. Because that's what his party will demand with foreign policy, especially after Purple+ almost wiped them out, and Purple II wiping the PvdA out.

[Kingpoleon]

It's pretty sad if even VVD, CDA and D66 can't come to an agreement. For years everyone speculated that VVD-CDA-D66 would be the centre of a new cabinet and they are not that far away ideologically. The election result also was a windfall. The last couple of polls before the election showed results which would have made a formation much harder.

So what's next? VVD-CDA-D66-CU seems logical, but Pechtold really doesn't want that since such a cabinet might very well be a Balkenende II redux. I wouldn't be surprised if Pechtold currently prefers a CDA-D66-GL-SP-PvdA coalition over a VVD-CDA-D66-CU coalition, but Buma would almost certainly block such a coalition even if he becomes PM in that case. Some sources indicated that Buma was much more hostile to GL than Rutte, so I don't think he would join an actual centre-left cabinet.

Its very sad indeed this was my prefered coalition, although I hope it was just between VVD/CDA and GL and not with D66 as well. VVD-CDA-D66-CU is going to be very difficult especially on social issues and almost suicidal for D66. VVD-CDA-D66-PvDA will be suicidal for PvDA and a centre left combination is not going to happen when the differences between CDA & GL are too big.

A minority government is also an option now.

If the differences between VVD/CDA and D66 are also too big. The final combination can also be VVD-CDA-PVV-SGP-50+ which is going to be ungly

I know this is pretty far back, but were you a D66 voter?

[DavidB.]

@Rogier: I tend to agree. GL are skeptical about the very premises that the Turkey deal is based on from a moral point of view, and while I disagree with that opinion, I can respect it. The reason why I still think Klaver deserves to be blamed, however, is that he left the door open and at some point even genuinely gave the impression that he was convinced that these deals may be acceptable. He kept stringing along Tjeenk Willink, VVD, CDA and D66 in thinking there may be a way to bridge their differences, and he obfuscated GL's (valid!) moral objections to the refugee deals with arguments related to international law that were subsequently debunked, which cost quite some time and energy. In that light I agree more with Sybrand Buma's disappointment over the fact that Klaver continued to leave the door open than with Herman Tjeenk Willink and (I think) Alexander Pechtold's view that this is a trivial issue. But ultimately my opinion is completely unimportant and I think most of GL's electorate will agree with Klaver's decision, though, as today's responses in De Volkskrant among other media showed, there may be a significant minority that disagree and think GL should have prioritized the environment.

[Kingpoleon]

DavidB., if GL moves a bit to the right on economics(as I understand their voters are), would they maybe merge with D66?

[DavidB.]

DavidB., if GL moves a bit to the right on economics(as I understand their voters are), would they maybe merge with D66?

There has been a lot of talk about this in the past, but political parties only merge when both are doing bad and have little perspective of doing better in the future. This clearly isn't the case right now since both D66 and GL have had great election results. GL have also moved back to the left economically under Klaver (under Halsema they were clearly more right-wing and closer to D66 than they are right now), which has widened the gap with D66. For example, GL oppose "neoliberalism" and "economism", whereas D66 are almost the embodiment of these two -- in French terms: GL are more like Hamon, D66 like Macron. What's more, studies have repeatedly shown that the GL electorate is also clearly to the left of the D66 electorate (it is not the case that the GL electorate is to the right of the party; until recently it was quite the opposite); there is obviously some overlap, but a merger would lose voters to the left (PvdA, SP) and to the right (VVD). In short, there seems to be no reason for both to engage in talks on a merger and I don't think it will ever happen.

[DavidB.]

Forum will be presenting "important news" tomorrow, they say. I suspect it may be a cooperation deal with Leefbaar in the Rotterdam municipal election in March next year. Leefbaar are currently the largest party in Rotterdam, leading a coalition with CDA and D66, but they will face heavy competition next year due to the fact that the PVV intend to stand there for the first time. News on parties' plans in the big cities is already starting to pour in. The VVD in The Hague call themselves "the new VVD" and have moved to the left on all sorts of issues (particularly the environment and public transportation), making them almost indistinguishable from D66. In The Hague, eight parties today struck an agreement on the environment in order to reach the targets of the Paris climate agreement, which all these parties will follow in their manifestos: coalition parties D66, PvdA, HSP (center-leftish local party), VVD and CDA and opposition parties GL, PvdD and CU/SGP. The SP are not part of this agreement (perhaps they didn't like viewing the environment as priority number one), and neither are the PVV, local party Groep de Mos, and the two Islamic parties on the council, i.e. the Islam Democrats and the "former" ISIS supporters of the Unity Party.

[SunSt0rm]

It's pretty sad if even VVD, CDA and D66 can't come to an agreement. For years everyone speculated that VVD-CDA-D66 would be the centre of a new cabinet and they are not that far away ideologically. The election result also was a windfall. The last couple of polls before the election showed results which would have made a formation much harder.

So what's next? VVD-CDA-D66-CU seems logical, but Pechtold really doesn't want that since such a cabinet might very well be a Balkenende II redux. I wouldn't be surprised if Pechtold currently prefers a CDA-D66-GL-SP-PvdA coalition over a VVD-CDA-D66-CU coalition, but Buma would almost certainly block such a coalition even if he becomes PM in that case. Some sources indicated that Buma was much more hostile to GL than Rutte, so I don't think he would join an actual centre-left cabinet.

Its very sad indeed this was my prefered coalition, although I hope it was just between VVD/CDA and GL and not with D66 as well. VVD-CDA-D66-CU is going to be very difficult especially on social issues and almost suicidal for D66. VVD-CDA-D66-PvDA will be suicidal for PvDA and a centre left combination is not going to happen when the differences between CDA & GL are too big.

A minority government is also an option now.

If the differences between VVD/CDA and D66 are also too big. The final combination can also be VVD-CDA-PVV-SGP-50+ which is going to be ungly

I know this is pretty far back, but were you a D66 voter?

Yes I voted for D66. My post there is still the case now

[DavidB.]

At least now it's clear that VVD, CDA and D66 came to an agreement on asylum issues.

[DavidB.]

My guess on the Leefbaar/Forum news turned out to be right: they will cooperate in the Rotterdam municipal election. VVD newspaper De Telegraaf presented it as "Leefbaar and Forum taking on the PVV together", which is stupid and will probably hurt Leefbaar more than the PVV... Forum themselves will only stand in Amsterdam, where Baudet lives.

Informateur Tjeenk Willink today concluded that the "Buma and the seven dwarves" (CDA+D66+80 small left-wing parties) is not an option, and neither is VVD-CDA-D66-SP. For some reason he concluded that Asscher's objections to a coalition with VVD, CDA and D66 are less fixed than Roemer's, because he does consider VVD-CDA-D66-PvdA to be a serious option. Together with VVD-CDA-D66-CU, these are the two combinations that will be investigated now.

[DavidB.]

Nice local case of bizarre pre-election spendthrift: in The Hague, PvdA alderman Rabin Baldewsingh this week announced that the municipality will create a "city beach" for 400,000 euros in a poor minority neighborhood. Here's the catch: The Hague is literally located on the beach, and poor people can get a) a pass to use public transit for free (!) in all of the city, b) a free (!) bike, and c) a pass that gives them access to public swimming pools at a reduced price. The beach is 30 minutes cycling and 30 minutes by tram away from this neighborhood. Reminds me why I don't vote for the left 

[jeron]

Option 5 is much more likely than option 3 or option 4. Option 2 will be tried, but will fail within less than a month, There will huge pressure on PvdA to start talks afterwards and they eventually budge. After that Asscher can make the case that everything has been tried and for the sake of the country etc.

5 is a bit of a wildcard, I'll give you that. It could happen all of a sudden. But I really doubt it. They say they chose for the country's interest in 2012 and will now choose for the party's interest. Governing again, with VVD-CDA-D66 of all parties, would be so incredibly damaging that I'm inclined to believe Asscher (though I know that's dangerous with a PvdA politician) and just really don't expect it to happen.

It doesn't seem like it will happen, but who knows. A CDA/VVD minority government is even more unlikely, because who would support it? The left surely wouldn't, neither would D66 or Denk. VVD and CDA have said they will not work with PVV. That leaves SGP, CU, 50plus and FvD. No majority there (64 seats). In other words, a VVD-CDA minority government would inevitably lead to elections quite soon.

[DavidB.]

Yeah, you're right. Coalition with PvdA probably more likely than new elections too.

[jeron]

In the meantime, CU leader Segers said that would not accept an invitation for coalition talks right now. He would advise Tjeenk Willink to arrange talks with PvdA or to let PvdA leader Asscher explain on what grounds/issues PvdA doesn't want to negtiate with VVD-CDA-D66. Only after that would CU be willing to negotiate.

[DavidB.]

No negotiations with the PvdA; Asscher continues to refuse, doesn't want to be in a government with "three economically right-wing parties with 71 seats." Only CU remain on Tjeenk Willink's list, otherwise it's going to be a minority government. Segers is still (rightly) pissed off with D66, so a minority government is by far the likeliest option.

[ZuWo]

What kind of role would you expect PVV to play in a minority coalition scenario? Constructive on a case-by-case basis or fully destructive?

[Dutch Conservative]

What kind of role would you expect PVV to play in a minority coalition scenario? Constructive on a case-by-case basis or fully destructive?

Definitely destructive. I think Wilders likes to gamble and he believes the PVV can become the largest party. He would never work with VVD and CDA to help that coalition, when there is nothing in it for him. I cant really disagree with him on that.

[DavidB.]

If Wilders could strike a deal in which he gets things in return (e.g. a more stringent immigration policy) for case-by-case support that would be very positive. Alas, that's impossible. The PVV are currently untouchable and will therefore undoubtedly assume a destructive role.

[DavidB.]

So Tjeenk Willink's legal framework is basically standing EU policy and uses the same standards as the already implemented EU-Turkey deal. Not only VVD and CDA, but also D66 accepted it, and upon public release of the information even the most important pro-refugee NGO in the Netherlands today said it was, quote, "quite good". Klaver remained skeptical until last week Thursday, when experts on international law and diplomats explained everything in detail. Klaver suddenly turned, appeared to accept it ("if this is it, then it sounds acceptable to me", to the astonishment of the other party leaders), but then he went back to GL and it seems as if the party simply got cold feet and didn't want to be in a coalition, because on Friday Klaver suddenly came up with the additional demand of taking in 25,000 African refugees, which was completely new and left VVD, CDA and D66 bewildered. Klaver retracted that demand during the weekend, but the atmosphere had turned sour. On Monday Klaver came up with new additional demands, which proved to be the final straw.

Last time around Rutte, Buma and Pechtold played nice, but now they have been clear that they are pretty mad (and all the details were leaked to De Telegraaf, which didn't happen last time around). Rutte added that the most left-wing governments of Europe, in Portugal and Greece, accept this legal framework and said he was "astonished". Pechtold said that it "bordered on a lack of political will". Not a good look for GL, would have been better for them if the negotiations had collapsed over a green (environment) or left (income inequality) issue.

For some balance, now Jesse Klaver's version of events. He gave an interview to De Volkskrant in which he explained why he felt GL could not be part of a VVD-CDA-D66-GL coalition.

On the question "why did you make talks fail on immigration when you could have achieved much in other policy areas?" Klaver answers: "what policy areas? If this is about the environment, I never had the feeling that we would reach the targets of the Paris Agreement. By far not. On socio-economic policy I did not see us come close to a compromise either. Early in the negotiations we talked about the loosening of the rules on bonuses for bankers in order to attract banks from London after Brexit. This is the exact opposite of what we want. So we said: we're not doing this. The others thought this was a completely strange position to take. I was reprimanded that I could have this opinion during the campaign, but not during negotiations, because it was so logical that we want to attract these banks. But this is not logical! You want to curb discontent in the country and the first thing you do is giving bankers bigger bonuses. We don't want this type of banker boys and girls. Ultimately negotiations on the formation of a government are about the question: do you contribute to making policy slightly less bad or slightly better? It was at risk of becoming the first option."

On immigration and asylum: "We have been very accommodating. We would gladly strike deals with countries in Africa. 90 percent of the people who currently try to cross the Mediterranean from Africa in small boats are economic migrants. They do not belong here and we want to send them back. The outer borders of Europe have to be protected much more. The distinction should be drawn between economic migrants on the one hand and political refugees and those who flee wars on the other hand. For the first category, you can strike deals with other countries. They have to take back their own people. This is the only way to maintain broad public support for the current asylum policy. But there is a limit, and that is the right to asylum for people who flee wars and violence. We cannot accept the focus on fewer, fewer, fewer refugees. Other parties' position was to send everyone back to Africa and let them apply for the status of asylum seeker from there. They were not willing to budge even slightly. The other parties' attitude was: you have to do exactly what we want and then we will write it down for you in a way that it is acceptable to you."

Klaver denies that others in the party told him this policy was unacceptable: "Of course you discuss things with the formation team, but ultimately I am responsible for this decision and I will never hide myself behind others."

[DavidB.]

Segers and Pechtold are having dinner tonight (lol).

[DC Al Fine]

Segers and Pechtold are having dinner tonight (lol).

So how did the meeting go?

[mvd10]

Segers and Pechtold are having dinner tonight (lol).

So how did the meeting go?

Very well. There will be negotiations between VVD-CDA-D66-CU.