Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[MaxQue]

So? George Soros isn't a government.

[DavidB.]

I'm less than happy with any foreign involvement in the referendum campaign, whether it's the Russians or Soros or anybody else, because these actors do not have the Dutch interest in mind. Therefore I oppose such involvement, both on the "yes" side and on the "no" side. This referendum is for the Dutch people to decide on. Foreign governments and businessmen will just have to respect that.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

3. Interest in this thread
I have been spending quite some time on updating this thread and I like to do so, but I seem to be almost the only one posting here. To me, this begs the question: do people actually read this? If you do and simply don't post, it's okay, and I very much understand that because I am a lurker in so many threads. However, I like to think I'm not writing these posts just for myself, and lately I have been thinking that maybe I am. In that case, I will update this less often. Let me know.

I read it - thank you for all of your work!

[DavidB.]

Many thanks for your reply!

[Beezer]

In response to the unfortunate events in Cologne, Geert Wilders seeks to legalize pepper spray in order for women to be able to defend themselves against, as Wilders likes to call them, "Middle Eastern testosterone bombs". In order to raise awareness for his plans (and to get attention...), he will organize an event in Spijkenisse (a rather depressing "white flight" working-class suburb of Rotterdam where the PVV performs extremely well) where he will distribute what he calls "resistance spray"; apparently there is a spray containing coloring agents that is currently legal and is a (weaker) substitute for real pepper spray. Of course, this is sure to cause more controversy, and people will be outraged, and Wilders will get attention and go up in the polls.

I myself find the wording "resistance spray" to be rather unfortunate (since it contains a WWII connotation that is definitely intentional), but that is just my opinion.

Wilders handing out some of his resistance spray: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X098EZiXfqc

[Angel of Death]

The funny thing is that if Wilders does do great in the next election, it will be the right (i.e. VVD and CDA) that's going to have a real problem, not the left.

[DavidB.]

As I expected, the PVV has reached a new all-time high in this week's peil.nl poll. GroenLinks has also reached a new all-time high, at the expense of D66.

PVV 42 (+1)
CDA 19 (nc)
VVD 18 (nc)
GroenLinks 16 (+1)
SP 15 (nc)
D66 15 (-1)
PvdA 9 (nc)
ChristenUnie 5 (nc)
PvdD 4 (nc)
50Plus 4 (nc)
SGP 3 (nc)
VNL 0 (-1)

The funny thing is that if Wilders does do great in the next election, it will be the right (i.e. VVD and CDA) that's going to have a real problem, not the left.

Well, let's do some maths (but let's also keep in mind that these categories don't make sense in reality when it comes to coalition formation, because the Netherlands just doesn't work like that):

2012 election:
Left (PvdA, SP, GL, PvdD): 59
Right (VVD, CDA, SGP): 57
Center/other (D66, CU, 50Plus): 19
PVV: 15

This poll:
Left (PvdA, SP, GL, PvdD): 44 (-15)
Right (VVD, CDA, SGP): 40 (-17)
Center/other (D66, CU, 50Plus): 24 (+5)
PVV: 42 (+27)

In this poll, the right is not significantly weaker than the left compared to the 2012 election.

PvdA support has evaporated: to GroenLinks and to the SP (which doesn't hurt the left in this table), and to D66 (which hurts the left). However, the SP has lost voters to the PVV (which hurts the left and shows that an increase in PVV support does not always come at the expense of the right). Meanwhile, on the right, the VVD has lost voters to the PVV (which hurts the right) and to the CDA (which doesn't hurt the right).

Note that right + PVV = 82 in this poll, whereas it was 72 in TK12. Peil.nl might be the most "enthusiastic" pollster for the right, but it is safe to say that VVD+PVV+CDA would now receive significantly more votes than in 2012.

This is why the position of VVD and CDA is still very strong. CDA will likely prevent a coalition with the PVV from being formed, but VVD and CDA still have a strong position when negotiating with the left. If the SP is to be outside the government, it will be hard to form a government that does not include both VVD and CDA (and both parties will likely insist on both being inside the government, for going in as the only right-wing party might be electoral suicide). What's more, these parties will always have the "cooperation with the PVV" card to scare other parties into compromising. (Also keep in mind that D66 will have a preference to work together with CDA and VVD to further an economically liberal (in the European sense of the word) agenda.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Dutch politics is amazing; so many choices and all of them are terrible, even the ones that look at first as if they might not be.

[DavidB.]

Dutch politics is amazing; so many choices and all of them are terrible, even the ones that look at first as if they might not be.

You don't like the SP?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Dutch politics is amazing; so many choices and all of them are terrible, even the ones that look at first as if they might not be.

You don't like the SP?

Its basically a cult, so no. I mean I suspect I would end up voting for it right now, but...

[DavidB.]

Its basically a cult, so no. I mean I suspect I would end up voting for it right now, but...

I understand why you would dislike the party itself, as an organization, but its program doesn't seem to be so much out of line with your views.

[DC Al Fine]

I just find it crazy how not only is there an openly theocratic party with seats, there's an openly theocratic party from my branch of Christianity... With actual representation in parliament.

[DC Al Fine]

Supposing that D66 successfully implemented FPTP, who would win seats? Obviously the party system would be different, but any guesses?

[DavidB.]

Supposing that D66 successfully implemented FPTP, who would win seats? Obviously the party system would be different, but any guesses?

First of all, let me emphasize that D66 is currently not in favor of implementing FPTP; this was an idea of the past.

It is hard to imagine the Dutch party system in a UK-like FPTP system, because obviously parties would merge, et cetera. But using the 2012 election and drawing a map with 150 FPTP districts, the 2012 result would look like this:


Only PvdA and VVD would win seats in this scenario (but that might be different in elections that are less of a two-horse race).

I am in favor of implementing a non-proportional mixed-member system in which voters have two votes. 75 MPs are elected through PR (like now, but with half the number of MPs) and 75 through FPTP in single-member districts. Small parties continue to be present in parliament, but we avoid the four or five-party coalitions that are inevitable if political fragmentation continues to increase.

[Zinneke]

I think you shouldn't be ashamed of plural societies. I understand the British, majoritarian way way doing things (ie they hate coalitions, like certainty and good governance, even if it means a clear democratic deficit), but Dutch electorates can't be aggregated into Left or Right, and when they have been you get very unpopular governments like the one currently in place.

[DavidB.]

Yes, I wholeheartedly agree that majoritarianism is not the "Dutch way" and that pluralism in our parliament is something good. The current unpopular coalition, however, if anything, is the consequence of this inclusivism and, as such, stands firmly within the Dutch political tradition of "polderen" and of compromising. "Aggregating Dutch electorates into left vs. right", as you describe, did not lead to this coalition. In fact, this coalition was formed despite the fact that the right and the left coalesced into one party, which, of course, made the coalition awkward and unpopular from the start. As such, the formation of unpopular governments, sadly, is a direct consequence of the compromises parties have to make in order to govern, and perhaps the price we have to pay for our proportional, pluralist system.

[Zinneke]

Yeah, I get that, but what I meant was that last election was very much painted as a Left vs Right affair, precisely because people did not seem to want a coalition that broke down every two years (CDA's collapse also had a role in this). And you still ended up with a Grand Coalition. The 90s also saw an Americanisation of Dutch politics, painted as modernisation, and it ended with 8 years of purple and a reactionary counter-movement.

If there are 5 parties with 20+ seats next election, it won't necessarily be a bad thing.

[Angel of Death]

Supposing that D66 successfully implemented FPTP, who would win seats? Obviously the party system would be different, but any guesses?

D66 was never in favor of electing the lower house (purely) by FPTP; the original idea was to introduce (multi-member) constituencies, which I assume would have implied STV. The idea to have half of the seats be elected by FPTP was a more recent proposal. Without a constitutional amendment modifying the mandatory use of (some sort of) proportional representation (article 53), that would have implied enacting some sort of additional member system (à la Germany).

[DavidB.]

A new opinion poll by I&O Research/Twente University shows that 38% are opposed to the Association Agreement with Ukraine, 31% are in favor and 31% are undecided. If the referendum would have taken place in January, 56% would have voted against, 44% would have voted for.

Some interesting stats:

General population: 38% No, 31% Yes, 31% Undecided
High education level: 37% Yes, 32% No, 31% Undecided
Medium education level: 45% No, 25% Yes, 30% Undecided
Low education level: 49% No, 22% Yes, 29% Undecided

Without undecideds:
General population: 56% No, 44% Yes
High education level: 54% Yes, 46% No
Medium education level: 65% No, 35% Yes
Low education level: 69% No, 31% Yes

So there seems to be an extremely clear educational gap, to the surprise of absolutely nobody.

Breakdown by party (current preference, not based on 2012 vote):
PVV: 73% No, 9% Yes, 18% Undecided
CDA: 36% No, 31% Yes, 33% Undecided
VVD: 41% Yes, 36% No, 23% Undecided
GroenLinks: 55% Yes, 10% No, 35% Undecided
SP: 51% No, 21% Yes, 28% Undecided
D66: 55% Yes, 20% No, 25% Undecided
PvdA: 63% Yes, 14% No, 23% Undecided
ChristenUnie: 29% Yes, 23% No, 48% Undecided (not a typo)
PvdD: 42% No, 24% Yes, 34% Undecided
50Plus: 46% No, 21% Yes, 33% Undecided
SGP: 38% No, 13% Yes, 49% Undecided (not a typo)

The pollsters also asked respondents whether the government should act according to the referendum result if turnout is higher than the 30% threshold. 48% say the government should act on the basis of the result, 41% say the government itself should decide what to do, which I find to be a remarkably high percentage, especially given the fact that the government seems to be less popular than the association agreement. 12% say they don't know.

So what does this tell us? This poll is now being presented in the Dutch media as an "increase of support for the Association Agreement" since the previous poll. I have my doubts and think the number of polls is way too small to say anything meaningful, other than the fact that more people seem to oppose the agreement than support it, and that many people are still undecided. It is also clear that people with a lower education level and SP/PVV supporters are likely to oppose the agreement. This could benefit the "yes" camp, as this electorate is less likely to turn out than the highly educated "yes" electorate. From a democratic perspective, it is somewhat worrisome (but absolutely nothing new) that there is such a strong educational gap, which likely stems from the idea not being represented by the government. In addition to that, the EU is often seen as a vehicle that works in the interests of the "haves" and against the interests of the "have-nots". Many people see this referendum as an instrument to show The Hague that their voices should be heard, too.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Question maybe stupid, maybe not:

why the hell the Netherlands make referendum on such irrelevant for them thing?

[DavidB.]

Question maybe stupid, maybe not:

why the hell the Netherlands make referendum on such irrelevant for them thing?

Because 427,000 citizens signed an official petition, which is why the government is under the obligation to organize this referendum (threshold = 300,000). People signed the petition for various reasons. Some of them were genuinely worried about the consequences of signing an association agreement with a country that is often seen as war-torn. Some think the EU is already too costly, and we shouldn't pay money to Ukraine. Some think this agreement will open the door for Ukraine to become an EU member (which doesn't make much sense, but Poroshenko stating that this should be a first step to becoming an EU member doesn't really help in public perception). Others just wanted to show they disapprove of the EU and/or the government and use this referendum as an instrument in doing so, partly because of the fact that according to the law, citizens' initiatives for a referendum can only be organized if a law has already been accepted by parliament. This is why we cannot have a "Nexit" referendum, for instance: parliament didn't sign anything on that. So this was pretty much the only possibility. It has all been played very smartly by GeenPeil, the main initiator of the referendum.

I, by the way, agree a referendum on this topic doesn't make sense.

[DavidB.]

Hurray! Another step toward gender equality. Because it's 2016.

From now on, military conscription will apply to girls as well. Defense Minister Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert (VVD) promised this to parliament today, after questions by PvdA and D66. In practice, conscription has been suspended 20 years ago, which means that every 17-year old Dutch boy receives a letter that the draft has been suspended and he doesn't have to show up, but that he could still be drafted in times of war. I still have mine somewhere. In the future, 17-year old girls will receive the same letter.

There has not been much debate about this, probably because no one thinks we will ever need to use conscription again. A vast majority of MPs are against reintroducing it, and VNL's idea to do so has been ridiculed by basically everybody.

Another new law: from 2020 onward, smoking on the yards of high schools will be prohibited. Makes sense, since the minimum age for buying cigarettes has been raised from 16 to 18 in 2014. Not many kids in high school are 18 or older.

[DavidB.]

New video in which Dutch citizens are threatened by the Azov Batallion (or fake?). Amsterdam Arena and Royal Theatre Carré are mentioned as places.

[DavidB.]

New peil.nl poll says 60% no, 40% yes in Ukraine referendum among people who are sure they will be voting. People who are less sure they will be voting lean more toward "no".

Meanwhile, Foreign Affairs Minister Bert Koenders (PvdA) announced that the Netherlands will stop temporarily ratifying the Association Agreement if the Netherlands votes no.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Is there a quorum? This is the sort of question a lot of normal people wouldn't bother turning out for.