Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Probably the stupidest referendum I ever had chance to notice.

[PetrSokol]

Thanks for excelentní coverage!

[DavidB.]

Done. Same as with 99.8%.

[DavidB.]

Thanks for excelentní coverage!

Thank you kindly! Glad people read this

[DavidB.]

No, I'm reading them. Congratulations to the Dutch!

Thanks very much!

So am I. Thanks for the insights. Is there any life in a possible Nexit campaign?

Thank you, Beezer! Such a campaign could be viable, even if I think it wouldn't have a majority (we are much more dependent on trade than the British, simply because we're so small), but it is not possible under the referendum law. But if the UK domino falls, who knows...

[DavidB.]

Probably the stupidest referendum I ever had chance to notice.

You guys had a referendum about your electoral system for the general election that got 15% turnout and was ignored two weeks later in the actual general election, right?

[reciprocity]

The turnout is a bit disappointing even if it was just a referendum... I wonder because it was just a few points over 30% that the gov't would just go ahead and ratify the treaty anyway.

[DavidB.]

Anyway, some drunk #analysis:

Amsterdam and Utrecht, the two progressive big cities, voted for. Rotterdam and The Hague, the two large cities that still have a sizeable white working class population, voted against. No surprise there.

In the end, this referendum was saved by turnout in Amsterdam. At 6PM it was barely over 13%, yet at 9PM it was 26,8%.

All municipalities except for Amsterdam + Utrecht + some uni towns + socialist Groningen villages + rich Utrecht suburbs + rich Arnhem suburbs voted against. Turnout was lowest in Amsterdam, Rotterdam, The Hague and Noord-Brabant province (in the last case, I don't know why, except for the usual stuff, but still doesn't explain why turnout was okay in Limburg). See here. Will try to come up with something tomorrow.

[DavidB.]

The turnout is a bit disappointing even if it was just a referendum... I wonder because it was just a few points over 30% that the gov't would just go ahead and ratify the treaty anyway.

Quite some potential yes voters stayed home in order to prevent turnout from reaching the threshold. I don't expect the government to take the result seriously, and there will be whining about the turnout figure, but the government cannot just ratify it. That would clearly be too much, especially since the PvdA promised to abide by the result (if >30% turnout). I expect the treaty to be changed somewhat, just like the European Constitution became the Treaty of Lisbon by dropping some irrelevant, controversial things. It won't really matter. But if the UK leaves successfully, we will be in pole position to follow.

[reciprocity]

The turnout is a bit disappointing even if it was just a referendum... I wonder because it was just a few points over 30% that the gov't would just go ahead and ratify the treaty anyway.

Quite some potential yes voters stayed home in order to prevent turnout from reaching the threshold. I don't expect the government to take the result seriously, and there will be whining about the turnout figure, but the government cannot just ratify it. That would clearly be too much, especially since the PvdA promised to abide by the result (if >30% turnout). I expect the treaty to be changed somewhat, just like the European Constitution became the Treaty of Lisbon by dropping some irrelevant, controversial things. It won't really matter. But if the UK leaves successfully, we will be in pole position to follow.

Ah, thanks. I wonder what could be changed though? Does the agreement allow for visa-free access? I guess that would be changed to be more restrictive.

[MaxQue]

So am I. Thanks for the insights. Is there any life in a possible Nexit campaign?

Why Netherlands would destroy their economy? Without European trade, Netherlands is nothing.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Probably the stupidest referendum I ever had chance to notice.

You guys had a referendum about your electoral system for the general election that got 15% turnout and was ignored two weeks later in the actual general election, right?

Because it was part of electoral campaign
But it was also stupid.

[DavidB.]

Let's start with this.

My prediction for tomorrow: 40% for, 60% against, 37% turnout.

The prediction was spot on, but my expectation regarding turnout was clearly too high. Probably both because of the fact that I live in a bubble (the sense that "everybody is concerned with the referendum", which, of course, is bs) and because most pollsters were simply wrong, De Hond/peil.nl being the important exception. And some wishful thinking, perhaps.

[DavidB.]

what could be changed though? Does the agreement allow for visa-free access? I guess that would be changed to be more restrictive.

Yes, the visa-free travelling clause could be excluded. The most likely solution seems including a clause that says the treaty does not render Ukraine an EU candidate member state. It does not actually change anything, because the Agreement was never about that anyway, but they might think it will pacify Dutch who were afraid of Ukraine entering the EU and it will superficially look like a political victory for Mark Rutte, who recently stated that Ukraine should never become a member of the EU.

Of course, that will not change any of the underlying euroskeptic sentiments behind the no vote, and in public perception this will be the second referendum in which a "no" vote has been ignored (though the low turnout might render the signal somewhat weaker than in 2005).

Why Netherlands would destroy their economy? Without European trade, Netherlands is nothing.

Norway and Switzerland are not EU member states. Pretty sure they don't need the EU for European trade. While your argument is popular in the Netherlands, rendering a Nexit less likely and popular than a Brexit, I think it is not particularly convincing. No one is for closing all the borders or for imposing strange tariffs. If we were to become a member of the European Economic Area without being a member of the EU, our economy would definitely not be destroyed.

[DavidB.]

[DavidB.]

Top 10 "for" municipalities:

1. Wageningen 62,4 (GL/D66 uni town, university focused on agricultural research and health)
2. Rozendaal 61,6 (very affluent and tiny Arnhem suburb)
3. Vlieland   57,9 (West Frisian island)
4. Utrecht   57,4 (progressive uni city)
5. Haren 57,2 (most affluent Groningen suburb)
6. Bunnik   54,5 (relatively affluent Utrecht suburb)
7. Oegstgeest 53,8 (affluent Leiden suburb)
8. Leiden 53,6 (uni town)
9. Zuidhorn 53,6 (a random village in Groningen)
10. Bloemendaal 53,5 (very affluent Haarlem/Amsterdam suburb)


Top 10 "against" municipalities:

1. Urk 83,3 (Reformed Protestant fisherman's town, extremely religious, #1 SGP municipality)
2. Nissewaard 79,5 (Rotterdam working-class suburb, initially white flight community but now also with minorities, PVV stronghold)
3. Edam-Volendam 79,1 (Catholic fisherman's town, very insular, PVV stronghold)
4. Kerkrade 78,0 (poor, peripherical South Limburg town)
5. Landgraaf 77,8 (poor, peripherical South Limburg town)
6. Pekela 77,6 (poor, peripherical Groningen municipality with a strong socialist tradition)
7. Hellevoetsluis 77,6 (planned city, white working-class Rotterdam suburb, total hellhole)
8. Rucphen 76,9 (in West Brabant, often #1 PVV municipality)
9. Tholen 76,7 (SGP municipality in Zeeland)
10. Brunssum 76,7 (poor, peripherical South Limburg town)

Interesting map:

(only areas in light and dark blue were actually for, "gemiddelde" = average countrywide)

Nice Paint map and quite accurate, although some of his conclusions I do not follow and are probably just deducted from this map (the idea that West Groningen and Central Overijssel are "attractive" for anyone who is not a cow is... funny, to say the least). Also, I disagree with culturally appropriating the magen david for protestant communities.


EDIT: ugh, the maps don't seem to work here (Bad Atlas much?), but the underlying link does work.

[reciprocity]

I wonder what the Ukrainian reaction is to the result. I am sure it is negative.

[DavidB.]

I wonder what the Ukrainian reaction is to the result. I am sure it is negative.

This Politico Europe article about it was interesting.

[MaxQue]

Why Netherlands would destroy their economy? Without European trade, Netherlands is nothing.

Norway and Switzerland are not EU member states. Pretty sure they don't need the EU for European trade. While your argument is popular in the Netherlands, rendering a Nexit less likely and popular than a Brexit, I think it is not particularly convincing. No one is for closing all the borders or for imposing strange tariffs. If we were to become a member of the European Economic Area without being a member of the EU, our economy would definitely not be destroyed.

However, I suspect most of the opposition to EU comes from people opposing freedom of movement between states. EEA membership includes acceptance of the "4 Freedoms", one of them is the freedom of movement between states.

I just don't see how joining EEA would fill the expectations and desires of the Nexit crowd.

[reciprocity]

I wonder what the Ukrainian reaction is to the result. I am sure it is negative.

This Politico Europe article about it was interesting.

Wow. Poroshenko is really in a mess. There really are no heroes in Ukraine.

[DavidB.]

It's been a while since I posted here, so let me update this.

1. In the polls, virtually nothing has changed since the referendum.

2. On the basis of the referendum law, the result has to be considered "as soon as possible", but this is not defined. All opposition parties, including the ones that were for the agreement, wanted the government to repeal the law that OKs the agreement, but the government rejected it on the grounds that it wants to renegotiate the agreement after the Brexit referendum. VVD and PvdA considered the law that OKs the association agreement the "entrance ticket" for new negotiations.
This is quite the 180 for the PvdA, which stated that the law should be repealed if the Dutch voted "against" before the referendum took place, but they explain that away by saying that the law will be repealed if the negotiations will turn out fruitless. Opposition parties SP and PVV argued that the referendum result was not meant to be an "entrance ticket", but an "exit ticket".

3. One important change in the Dutch party landscape: DENK, the party of PvdA splitoffs Tunahan Kuzu and Selçuk Öztürk, is taking off and has 2 seats in the polls now according to peil.nl, almost solely because of Muslim voters. Its target electorate, however, consists of all minorities, not only Muslims. The party has received much attention during the last weeks. When Dutch journalist Ebru Umar was arrested in Turkey, party leader Kuzu stated that she simply had to comply with Turkish laws; she didn't do so, so her arrest was fine.

Farid Azarkan, the leader of a Moroccan organization, has been attracted in order to woo Moroccan voters. Now, former TV presenter Sylvana Simons, of Surinamese descent, joined the party. She has a history of anti-racist activity and has been vocal in the "anti Zwarte Piet" movement. In an interview, she stated that she "didn't know" about the Armenian genocide (quite baffling for someone who argues that the Dutch should not forget about the country's history regarding slavery) and that the interviewer should ask party leader Tunahan Kuzu. Moreover, she echoed Kuzu's comment on Ebru Umar's arrest in Turkey.

Attacks on DENK have been widely published. In the mainstream media, they were quite sophisticated, focusing on their views on the Armenian genocide and the fact that they sow division. On the internet, the level of the discourse was astonishingly low, full of racism and sexism. Of course, all this reinforces minorities' perception that one cannot talk about racism in the Netherlands without being shunned by society and will help DENK; the party has often been compared to the PVV recently.

Feminist, anti-racist and anti-Zwarte Piet activist Sunny Bergman, meanwhile, was invited by Kuzu but declined to be a part of DENK when she asked them about their views on e.g. the Armenian genocide. Undoubtedly, they will attract more well-known people before the election. I place my bets on Yasmina Haifi, a former PvdA member who worked for the Ministry for Security and Justice on the Counterterrorism department and was fired over a tweet in which she stated that ISIS is a Zionist conspiracy and attributed her being fired to racism and Islamophobia. Anja Meulenbelt, a former SP senator and anti-Israel activist who cut her ties with the party when she thought the SP did not sufficiently condemn Israel during the 2014 Protective Edge operation, could also be on their shortlist.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

So a new testimonial party?

I'm really surprised no Dutch politician has proposed an electoral threshold, like they did in Israel. I mean I'm glad they haven't, because you get crazy weirdos like Animals and DANK and SGP, but still odd.

EDIT: this Kuzu character has a really weird looking head

[reciprocity]

So a new testimonial party?

I'm really surprised no Dutch politician has proposed an electoral threshold, like they did in Israel. I mean I'm glad they haven't, because you get crazy weirdos like Animals and DANK and SGP, but still odd.

EDIT: this Kuzu character has a really weird looking head

I think I saw a VVD politician had said something about establishing an electoral threshold. Not sure how that would go down now.

[DavidB.]

So a new testimonial party?

I'm really surprised no Dutch politician has proposed an electoral threshold, like they did in Israel. I mean I'm glad they haven't, because you get crazy weirdos like Animals and DANK and SGP, but still odd.

The term "testimonial party" was relevant when PvdA, VVD, CDA and D66 would have large majorities and the role of the "small Christian right" was indeed purely testimonial. Now, however, with our fragmented political landscape, all parties, including SGP, 50Plus and PvdD, have the possibility to play a decisive role in creating majorities. They bargain and have actual influence over policy. DENK could easily win more than five seats in the next election. That will have true consequences for the political landscape and possibly for policy.

Regarding the electoral threshold, many parties have sought to change the Electoral Law during the last decades, but to no avail. Political scientists generally argue that the Dutch institutional rules are set in stone, but that unofficial, cultural "rules" in Dutch politics can (and do) change. Some politicians (mainly in VVD and CDA) did actually toy with the idea of implementing an electoral threshold, but this is never going to be a serious proposal: people perceive it as against Dutch pluralistic values. Of course, we have always been a country of minorities, and decision-making processes have often included as many actors as possible; an electoral threshold would be seen as a gross violation of these values. Majoritarianism is just not really compatible with Dutch politics. This has also been one of the main arguments of the anti-referendum camp before the implementation of the law on the advisory referendum.

DANK

[DC Al Fine]

Given that SP and PVV are both major players for the foreseeable future, wouldn't an electoral threshold make it harder to form governments?

Imagine a scenario where there is a 5% threshold. The Christians form a joint list and manage to get into parliament while this new DENK group manages to cause Labour to just miss the bar. How would you make a government out of that?