Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented
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  Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented
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DavidB.
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« Reply #350 on: May 22, 2016, 01:06:09 PM »

Given that SP and PVV are both major players for the foreseeable future, wouldn't an electoral threshold make it harder to form governments?

Imagine a scenario where there is a 5% threshold. The Christians form a joint list and manage to get into parliament while this new DENK group manages to cause Labour to just miss the bar. How would you make a government out of that?

First off, this is entirely hypothetical, because it's not going to happen. A 5% threshold would temporarily kill off the PvdD and probably DENK, and rob VNL of its last hope. CU and SGP would form an electoral alliance and wouldn't be harmed. No other parties would truly risk getting under the threshold. The seats of <5% parties would be distributed among all other parties, including SP and PVV. It wouldn't lead to more problems in terms of coalition formation, but it wouldn't solve anything either. In terms of ad-hoc cooperation, smaller parties lose their importance and coalitions will have to negotiate with medium-sized parties or large parties instead of convincing that one SGP or 50Plus MP. That might make things more difficult, but perhaps one could say policymaking would be less vulnerable to particularistic exploitation by insignificant parties. I would not be for it. I don't think fragmentation is a problem, and even if you see it as a problem, a 5% threshold will not solve it because the true issue is that there are a lot of medium-sized parties (10-40 seats) and no large parties (40+ seats) anymore.
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Zanas
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« Reply #351 on: May 22, 2016, 07:16:52 PM »

Why all the talk about the Armenian genocide ? Has it been an issue ? Or is it just because Denk's founders are of Turkish descent ?
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DavidB.
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« Reply #352 on: May 23, 2016, 10:18:51 AM »
« Edited: May 23, 2016, 10:20:52 AM by DavidB. »

Why all the talk about the Armenian genocide ? Has it been an issue ? Or is it just because Denk's founders are of Turkish descent ?
The point is basically that in order to be considered a normal and sane party by ethnically Dutch voters, you have to recognize the Armenian genocide. By contrast, in order to win Turkish Dutch votes, you cannot recognize it. If you recognize it, most Turkish Dutch voters will not support you or your party. This has led to incredibly awkward situations in the past: before the 2006 parliamentary election, this became an issue. PvdA and CDA forced all their candidates to recognize the genocide, upon which their Turkish candidates withdrew. By contrast, D66 did not force candidate Fatma Koşer-Kaya to recognize the genocide, and she did not do so. The issue is now used successfully by other parties to highlight Denk's hypocrisy when they talk about human rights or the importance of remembering history.

Kuzu and Öztürk explicitly target Turkish voters on Turkish issues (e.g. Ebru Umar); they left the PvdA because they thought the party did not care about its minority voters. Kuzu and Öztürk themselves name and shame Turkish Dutch MPs from other parties who talk negatively about Erdogan or take stances that are otherwise unpopular with most of the Dutch Turkish electorate. Therefore it is not strange for others to focus on the Armenian genocide issue. Of course, D66, SP, PvdA and GL worry about Denk. Their emergence will doubtlessly cost PvdA and D66 seats.
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Zanas
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« Reply #353 on: May 24, 2016, 05:20:26 AM »

So it has just become a kind of litmus test to see if a party is somewhat sane and sincere ? That's awesome ! I don't get the impression it is used as widely as a test in any other country, even in Germany where there are to my knowledge even more voters of Turkish descent.

Also, I see you use the word genocide for the Armenian genocide : that's awesome too ; not all Jews agree to do that...
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DavidB.
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« Reply #354 on: May 24, 2016, 07:46:21 AM »
« Edited: May 24, 2016, 07:48:25 AM by DavidB. »

So it has just become a kind of litmus test to see if a party is somewhat sane and sincere ? That's awesome ! I don't get the impression it is used as widely as a test in any other country, even in Germany where there are to my knowledge even more voters of Turkish descent.
It's not as if most Dutch are experts, but the Armenian genocide is just widely recognized as such. Denying it seems weird and inappropriate to most people, even if the issue is not important in itself for them. They see it as an indicator that a party cares more about Turkish votes than about being honest.

Also, I see you use the word genocide for the Armenian genocide : that's awesome too ; not all Jews agree to do that...
-_-'

Weird comment. Do all French agree on this?
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CrabCake
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« Reply #355 on: May 24, 2016, 08:04:13 AM »

Tbf Armenian genocide denial is illegal in France whereas in Israel the genocide is, err, treated with Realpolitik gloves from what I've heard.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #356 on: May 24, 2016, 08:08:59 AM »

Tbf Armenian genocide denial is illegal in France whereas in Israel the genocide is, err, treated with Realpolitik gloves from what I've heard.
True, but it's kind of... weird to feel the necessity to make snarky remarks about that government policy to individual Jews -- especially if they don't even hold Israeli passports. It is also weird to imply that Jews specifically have a problem with recognizing the Armenian genocide while I have the impression that if anything, Jews, both in Israel and in Europe, might be even more inclined to recognize the Armenian genocide than most peoples, and certainly not less.
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Zanas
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« Reply #357 on: May 24, 2016, 08:25:10 AM »

Tbf Armenian genocide denial is illegal in France whereas in Israel the genocide is, err, treated with Realpolitik gloves from what I've heard.
True, but it's kind of... weird to feel the necessity to make snarky remarks about that government policy to individual Jews -- especially if they don't even hold Israeli passports. It is also weird to imply that Jews specifically have a problem with recognizing the Armenian genocide while I have the impression that if anything, Jews, both in Israel and in Europe, might be even more inclined to recognize the Armenian genocide than most peoples, and certainly not less.
It was not snarky at all, I'm being misunderstood here. What I meant is that some Jews, some of them prominent, have a "only one True Genocide" policy when it comes to genocides. I don't know if it's specific to French Jews or not, but I have seen some and talked to them. These people tend to undermine the characterization of other genocides as "Genocides" because they feel it will undermine the character of the Shoah as "the Genocide" and open the way to further negationism. Again, it's not necessarily a widespread belief among Jews, even French Jews, it's just one that exists and manifests itself from time to time. That is why I acknowledged your lack of reluctancy to use that term.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #358 on: May 24, 2016, 08:43:36 AM »
« Edited: May 24, 2016, 08:45:56 AM by DavidB. »

It was not snarky at all, I'm being misunderstood here. What I meant is that some Jews, some of them prominent, have a "only one True Genocide" policy when it comes to genocides. I don't know if it's specific to French Jews or not, but I have seen some and talked to them. These people tend to undermine the characterization of other genocides as "Genocides" because they feel it will undermine the character of the Shoah as "the Genocide" and open the way to further negationism. Again, it's not necessarily a widespread belief among Jews, even French Jews, it's just one that exists and manifests itself from time to time. That is why I acknowledged your lack of reluctancy to use that term.
Hmmm, okay, then I misunderstood you. Thought you referred to the Israeli government's policy. I have never heard about this, but most Jews I know are Dutch, Israeli or American. Perhaps it is something that manifests itself among French Jews. I personally think the definition of genocide is quite clear and the fact that the Shoah was a horrific crime and a genocide is in no way challenged by acknowledging that other peoples have been the victims of horrific crimes and, indeed, genocides too. Not recognizing the Armenian genocide is the height of disrespect and not all that different from not recognizing the Shoah.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #359 on: May 25, 2016, 05:17:33 PM »

Having sex with a prostitute whom one knows is a victim of human trafficking will become illegal. A majority of MPs voted for a motion by CU, SP and PvdA to this end.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #360 on: May 25, 2016, 05:24:34 PM »

Having sex with a prostitute whom one knows is a victim of human trafficking will become illegal. A majority of MPs voted for a motion by CU, SP and PvdA to this end.

Your wording intrigues me. Who voted against it?
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DavidB.
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« Reply #361 on: May 25, 2016, 06:16:59 PM »

Having sex with a prostitute whom one knows is a victim of human trafficking will become illegal. A majority of MPs voted for a motion by CU, SP and PvdA to this end.
Your wording intrigues me. Who voted against it?
Yeah, did not really know how to formulate it. Have been trying to find out who voted against apart from VVD (LOL, the "tough on crime" party) and PVV, who were mentioned in the news article, but it has not been updated on the parliament's website yet.
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« Reply #362 on: May 25, 2016, 06:40:10 PM »

Having sex with a prostitute whom one knows is a victim of human trafficking will become illegal. A majority of MPs voted for a motion by CU, SP and PvdA to this end.

I am not surprised by VVD. I wonder if D66 voted against it also. They seem like they could.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #363 on: June 08, 2016, 10:57:16 AM »

Having sex with a prostitute whom one knows is a victim of human trafficking will become illegal. A majority of MPs voted for a motion by CU, SP and PvdA to this end.
I am not surprised by VVD. I wonder if D66 voted against it also. They seem like they could.
It's online now. VVD, PVV, D66, VNL and 50Plus against. PvdA, SP, CDA, CU, GL, SGP, PvdD and DENK for.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #364 on: June 09, 2016, 06:11:04 AM »

Footage of DENK leader Tunahan Kuzu marching in a Grey Wolves demonstration in Rotterdam last year and speaking for this group of protesters has been published on several media. It will only boost his popularity among Turks, but it might shatter some people's naive view of DENK as an "anti-racist" or "left-wing" party for all Dutch people of foreign origin.
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« Reply #365 on: June 09, 2016, 10:39:46 AM »

  • With 2 seats and barely any poll numbes, they are irrelevant as a political force.
  • The Turkish minority, or any minority do not block vote for a single party
  • The media coverage, as well as yours, exposes an underlying biased political coverage

I fail to see either the relevance or interest in this obsession with DENK the NOS and you have. We have a party in Bussels called ISLAM that had a former trainer of child terrorists amongst its ranks. It remains an irrelevant political force not worth the attention that undoubtedly gives it free publicity. But then again their ise suits the black and white world some people seem to live in.
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« Reply #366 on: June 09, 2016, 12:20:01 PM »
« Edited: June 09, 2016, 03:49:36 PM by Dutch Conservative »

  • With 2 seats and barely any poll numbes, they are irrelevant as a political force.
  • The Turkish minority, or any minority do not block vote for a single party
  • The media coverage, as well as yours, exposes an underlying biased political coverage

I fail to see either the relevance or interest in this obsession with DENK the NOS and you have. We have a party in Bussels called ISLAM that had a former trainer of child terrorists amongst its ranks. It remains an irrelevant political force not worth the attention that undoubtedly gives it free publicity. But then again their ise suits the black and white world some people seem to live in.

I agree with this to the extend that I do not think DENK will be a force in Dutch politics. My guess is that when elections will come, the media will make it into a two-party fight (last time: PvdA and VVD). Smaller parties will suffer from it. Max 1 seat for DENK (even that is too much for me, cant stand that Kuzu).
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DavidB.
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« Reply #367 on: June 09, 2016, 12:28:59 PM »
« Edited: June 09, 2016, 12:48:06 PM by DavidB. »

  • With 2 seats and barely any poll numbes, they are irrelevant as a political force.
  • The Turkish minority, or any minority do not block vote for a single party
  • The media coverage, as well as yours, exposes an underlying biased political coverage

I fail to see either the relevance or interest in this obsession with DENK the NOS and you have. We have a party in Bussels called ISLAM that had a former trainer of child terrorists amongst its ranks. It remains an irrelevant political force not worth the attention that undoubtedly gives it free publicity. But then again their ise suits the black and white world some people seem to live in.
How is making a few posts on the developments with DENK even remotely an "obsession"? I make posts about the developments within other parties too -- even when it comes to parties that are even less relevant than DENK, such as VNL. Now, perhaps you do not find news on DENK to be interesting, but this party has two parliamentary seats (well, de facto) and it has the potential to win five or even more seats in the upcoming general election. Such political actors can become very relevant, especially given the current political fragmentation, and criticism of some obviously disturbing ideas they have is more than warranted. No one was talking about a "block [sic] vote", so I don't know why you come up with that. As for your last point, I would never pretend to be "objective" when it comes to DENK, because I think it is a potentially dangerous party, even if its participation in the next election will likely only help the right. Lastly, if an MP of, say, VNL would be marching in a demonstration with fascists, you would surely care. Why would Turkish Dutch MPs deserve a free pass for doing so?
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« Reply #368 on: June 09, 2016, 03:57:00 PM »

@ DavidB

What do you think of the course of CDA at this moment? I doubt if Buma has the charisma to become a real alternative for the PM. Too bad, because I think there is still room for a large, center-right/conservative party (like CDA with Lubbers or Balkenende).



(thanks for the message btw, but I cannot send a message back. I'm 'not allowed' it says).

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JosepBroz
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« Reply #369 on: June 09, 2016, 04:23:11 PM »

  • With 2 seats and barely any poll numbes, they are irrelevant as a political force.
  • The Turkish minority, or any minority do not block vote for a single party
  • The media coverage, as well as yours, exposes an underlying biased political coverage

I fail to see either the relevance or interest in this obsession with DENK the NOS and you have. We have a party in Bussels called ISLAM that had a former trainer of child terrorists amongst its ranks. It remains an irrelevant political force not worth the attention that undoubtedly gives it free publicity. But then again their ise suits the black and white world some people seem to live in.

I agree with this to the extend that I do not think DENK will be a force in Dutch politics. My guess is that when elections will come, the media will make it into a two-party fight (last time: PvdA and VVD). Smaller parties will suffer from it. Max 1 seat for DENK (even that is too much for me, cant stand that Kuzu).


The Dutch Left is too balkanised now for a dual-party american style apparatus. Similarly the PVV's score will undoubtedly go up compared to last time.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #370 on: June 09, 2016, 04:29:22 PM »
« Edited: June 09, 2016, 04:35:50 PM by DavidB. »

I think you need to have 20 posts before you can send PMs Smiley

As JosepBroz very aptly stated, I am biased, and while I am a right-winger who would definitely be a potential CDA voter if the party chose to pursue a more conservative course, I think Buma has the charisma of Herman van Rompuy as described by Nigel Farage. I would never vote for a CDA with Buma as leader, so this might influence my perspective on this (I liked this article in Dutch). The way I see it is as follows. Electoral competition between right-wing parties is decided in Randstad suburbs and in rural Noord-Brabant areas. In the 2000s they voted CDA, in 2010 they voted VVD with a very large chunk of PVV votes, in 2012 they largely voted VVD. A party that wants to become the largest party on the right and win the election needs to convince these voters. I could be horribly wrong, underestimating how unpopular Rutte is, but I think the great majority of these voters would currently be more inclined to stay with the VVD or walk to Wilders instead of choosing the CDA under boring Buma. They could go to the CDA, but not with Buma (#drafteurlings needs to be a thing imo), and probably not with their current story. That said, the CDA will doubtlessly grow somewhat, just because they're a center-right "alternative" to a rather unpopular VVD-led government. But we cannot really predict the election result since Dutch voters will change their minds countless times before the election anyway.
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« Reply #371 on: June 12, 2016, 12:04:17 AM »


 I think Buma has the charisma of Herman van Rompuy as described by Nigel Farage.

Exactly.  Agree with your analysis. Some regions/city's always vote the same: Utrecht votes D'66, the Biblebelt votes CU/SGP, Limburg votes PVV, Groningen SP/PvdA. The margins are with the voters  in the suburbs in the Randstad. The last election VVD knew how to appeal to these voters. My guess is that they will find a way again, already that party is presententing itself as more rightwing.

The problem for me is: I would like to vote for a traditional party if only they represented me. Now i'm forced into the PVV camp, but they are the only reliable party for key points as pro-Israël, controlled borders, law and order. I think therefor there is a huge potential for a conservative, real center-right people's party like CDA could be (compares to CSU in Bavaria).
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« Reply #372 on: June 12, 2016, 02:20:24 AM »

Exactly.  Agree with your analysis. Some regions/city's always vote the same: Utrecht votes D'66,

Utrecht was a PvdA city until not long ago. I understand why people associate a city like Utrecht with D66 but it really is just left-liberal.

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yes

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Limburg is so electorally balkanised you can't really call it. A map of the 2010 election does indicate its PVV but that was 6 years ago. It still trends heavily towards CDA over time. It recently gave PVV a plurality in its regional election, but the PVV split the vote 50-50 with either the CDA (in the countryside/Sittard) or SP (in Maastricht and Parkstad). In Maastricht it received exactly the same amount of votes as SP for example, but was closely followed by D66 and CDA.

The only thing you can say about Limburg right now is that it will probably not vote for the government parties.

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PvdA have lost the North, and that's one of the reasons I don't see it coming back from this until at least 2-3 elections. The North and urban areas in Limburg and Brabant were their base.

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What I (and I think DavidB does too) find strange is that these voters will probably choose between VVD and D66. I think CDA will have a hard time convincing these people to vote for them.

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The CDA has always had a Christian social wing, and the last time it associated itself with the PVV it suffered an electoral drubbing because the social wing deserted it for allying with Wilders. The CDA can just count of their usual clientelist tactics to amass a solid 15-20%, then hope for a VVD-CDA-D66 right of centre coalition.

There is no market left for the hard, conservative alt-Right. Wilders and the right-wing of the VVD have that tied up.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #373 on: June 16, 2016, 10:16:58 AM »
« Edited: June 16, 2016, 10:54:37 AM by DavidB. »

A majority today supported a Cuomo-like initiative by SGP, VVD and ChristenUnie to stop financing organizations that boycott Israel. Apart from these three parties, PVV, CDA, 50Plus and VNL voted for this initiative. However, this will probably turn out to be symbolic, as the government does not have a list of organizations that boycott Israel: according to Foreign Affairs minister Koenders, doing so "falls within the realm of free speech". Together with Denmark, Norway and Germany, the Netherlands is among the primary donors of anti-Israeli NGOs.

The problem for me is: I would like to vote for a traditional party if only they represented me. Now i'm forced into the PVV camp, but they are the only reliable party for key points as pro-Israël, controlled borders, law and order. I think therefor there is a huge potential for a conservative, real center-right people's party like CDA could be (compares to CSU in Bavaria).
I totally agree and find myself in the exact same position, except that I don't think the potential would be "huge". But yes, some potential exists, except that it should be a lot less oriented toward Christianity and traditions than the CSU in order to attract many voters. The Dutch are thoroughly secular.

I basically agree with JosepBroz's last post, except for this:

The CDA has always had a Christian social wing, and the last time it associated itself with the PVV it suffered an electoral drubbing because the social wing deserted it for allying with Wilders. The CDA can just count of their usual clientelist tactics to amass a solid 15-20%, then hope for a VVD-CDA-D66 right of centre coalition. There is no market left for the hard, conservative alt-Right. Wilders and the right-wing of the VVD have that tied up.
The bottom line of this post is true -- the CDA has historically been a centrist/center-right party with a clear and vocal "left", which it didn't lose when the party drifted to the right during the Balkenende years. However, the idea that the party would have lost its left wing in the 2012 election over cooperation with the PVV seems unfounded. If anything, right-wing CDA voters who liked Balkenende in 2010 left the party to vote for the VVD in the two-horse race of 2012. The CDA left does not really have any alternatives and remains a solid force within the party, even after the cooperation with the PVV. This cooperation is widely seen as a mistake within the party, but more so among the more left-wing party members than among much of the CDA electorate. Still, renewed cooperation with the PVV seems highly unlikely and this is the main reason why the PVV will not engage in government cooperation after the next election -- neither outside the government, like last time, nor inside.

But yes, I entirely agree with the "prediction" that the CDA will get around 15% of the vote and end up in a VVD-D66-CDA-led government.

Last point, but this is perhaps more of a semantic nature: the PVV is hardly "alt right". Alt rightists, to the extent that they even exist in the Netherlands, think the PVV is too "Jewish". Also, the point was that right-wing, conservative voters don't necessarily feel at home with the VVD and with the PVV. Working-class areas like Spijkenisse will continue to vote PVV no matter what, but (lower) middle-class Vinex neighborhoods, the ones that trended VVD in the last election and will likely go PVV in the next election, could easily vote for a more conservative CDA. In order to turn to the right and attract such voters, however, the CDA would have to lose its left-wing members, which is highly unlikely.
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« Reply #374 on: June 25, 2016, 01:04:53 PM »

What will be the consequences of the Brexit in the Netherlands? My view:
- on the short term: nothing will happen as PVV and SP are nowhere near a majority and the constitution doesnt allow a referendum on settled law.
- as for the elections in 2017: the EU will probably be a major subject, but the main parties will stick by a 'more effecient, cheaper, more democracy, etc' kind of message with no hard promises or measures. Because the dutch electorate tends to go for the middle, VVD and D'66 will profit.
- on laws regarding more power to Europe or new memberstates a referendum will be held each time for years to come, so that will restrain the government and limit the plans of guys like Verhofstad and Schultz.
- Conclusion: untill the next giant economic collapse (I think in the not to distant future) nothing will happen. Chances of a nexit are very small.
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