Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[DavidB.]

I dont see any reason why Rutte has to be replaced if the VVD is going to be the biggest non-PVV party. Rutte strenght is that he is flexible and can built several coalitions if needed, which will be needed for the next formation. Rutte is still popular despite some scandals, the only one that has the same favorable ratings is Pechtold (D66). Removing Rutte will push the VVD more to the right with Zijlstra.

Offering Foreign Affairs to Rutte would be a solution. He wouldn't necessarily have to resign as party leader. I think Rogier's scenario will only be relevant if GL is needed and I don't think it's impossible. But yes, I agree it is far more likely that Rutte will stay on, even if GL is needed.

As for your other post, these CBS data refer to the 2012 election, whereas the Etnobarometer refers to immigrants' current political opinion (and, apparently, is a total junk poll debunked by renowned Dutch political scientists Bethlehem and Van Holsteyn). But yes, this group is obviously extremely hard to poll.

[SunSt0rm]

I dont see any reason why Rutte has to be replaced if the VVD is going to be the biggest non-PVV party. Rutte strenght is that he is flexible and can built several coalitions if needed, which will be needed for the next formation. Rutte is still popular despite some scandals, the only one that has the same favorable ratings is Pechtold (D66). Removing Rutte will push the VVD more to the right with Zijlstra.

Offering Foreign Affairs to Rutte would be a solution. He wouldn't necessarily have to resign as party leader. I think Rogier's scenario will only be relevant if GL is needed and I don't think it's impossible. But yes, I agree it is far more likely that Rutte will stay on, even if GL is needed.

Why the hell would GL prefer Zijlstra or Schippers instead of Rutte?

[DavidB.]

I dont see any reason why Rutte has to be replaced if the VVD is going to be the biggest non-PVV party. Rutte strenght is that he is flexible and can built several coalitions if needed, which will be needed for the next formation. Rutte is still popular despite some scandals, the only one that has the same favorable ratings is Pechtold (D66). Removing Rutte will push the VVD more to the right with Zijlstra.

Offering Foreign Affairs to Rutte would be a solution. He wouldn't necessarily have to resign as party leader. I think Rogier's scenario will only be relevant if GL is needed and I don't think it's impossible. But yes, I agree it is far more likely that Rutte will stay on, even if GL is needed.

Why the hell would GL prefer Zijlstra or Schippers instead of Rutte?

No, you misunderstand. Rogier's point is that Buma or Pechtold, who would be more acceptable to GL, would become PM in that case. Rutte could even remain on as VVD leader. Schippers and Zijlstra don't come into the picture.

(But I'll repeat once more to our lurkers who are less familiar with Dutch politics than us: I think this is an extremely unlikely scenario).

[SunSt0rm]

I dont see any reason why Rutte has to be replaced if the VVD is going to be the biggest non-PVV party. Rutte strenght is that he is flexible and can built several coalitions if needed, which will be needed for the next formation. Rutte is still popular despite some scandals, the only one that has the same favorable ratings is Pechtold (D66). Removing Rutte will push the VVD more to the right with Zijlstra.

Offering Foreign Affairs to Rutte would be a solution. He wouldn't necessarily have to resign as party leader. I think Rogier's scenario will only be relevant if GL is needed and I don't think it's impossible. But yes, I agree it is far more likely that Rutte will stay on, even if GL is needed.

Why the hell would GL prefer Zijlstra or Schippers instead of Rutte?

No, you misunderstand. Rogier's point is that Buma or Pechtold, who would be more acceptable to GL, would become PM in that case. Rutte could even remain on as VVD leader. Schippers and Zijlstra don't come into the picture.

Ok, in that way. Still very improbable as, I think Rutte leadership skills are needed, which everyone appreciates of him. I dont think the PM position has ever been negotiated since the 70s. And I dont think the VVD will accept that it will be negotiated if they become the largest non-PVV.

[Zinneke]

I dont see any reason why Rutte has to be replaced if the VVD is going to be the biggest non-PVV party. Rutte strenght is that he is flexible and can built several coalitions if needed, which will be needed for the next formation. Rutte is still popular despite some scandals, the only one that has the same favorable ratings is Pechtold (D66). Removing Rutte will push the VVD more to the right with Zijlstra.

Offering Foreign Affairs to Rutte would be a solution. He wouldn't necessarily have to resign as party leader. I think Rogier's scenario will only be relevant if GL is needed and I don't think it's impossible. But yes, I agree it is far more likely that Rutte will stay on, even if GL is needed.

Why the hell would GL prefer Zijlstra or Schippers instead of Rutte?

Because of what DavidB said + the average left-wing voter probably doesn't know about VVD internal politics and just wants Rutte gone. But I agree that they also probably want the whole of the VVD gone which will be unfeasible.

I may also be basing myself too much on our coalition practices. Like how there were almost always 3 PM candidates from xy parties that are ''black balled'' by coalition partner z during negotiation process due to their unpopularity with z party's electorate. In the NL's case, I think they know what their electorates would accept, and I doubt its Rutte appearing on the radio every friday as PM again.

The PM position could be negotiated this time round because otherwise Wilders would be the candidate if he ''wins''. The fact that VVD can't go into this election saying they have won is a loss for Rutte in itself. The balkanisation of this election is hiding the fact that this is a pretty strong anti-incumbent vote.

[DavidB.]

I don't think the average left-wing voter hates Rutte that much (though it is useful to differentiate between middle-class PvdA/GL voters and more working-class voters outside "Holland", the latter of which are more likely to dislike him thoroughly). They probably just want different policies. Which, let's be honest, is not going to happen, because any coalition that includes VVD, CDA and D66 is not going to be to the current government's left, though it is true they have some more room to splurge. But Klaver is an idealist and may be playing the long game. If he goes into opposition, he may damage the PvdA even more. It would not be smart for him to enter the government without the PvdA, and I don't know whether both would be welcome if that means the coalition is "oversized" -- but we will see.

As for your other remark, yes, this is a strong anti-incumbent vote, and I think the message would have been a lot clearer if those disappointed PvdA voters had gone to the SP (who are currently losing more than the PVV, though nobody is watching) instead of GL. Of course, as I said, we will get the exact same policies after the political earthquake that is likely to take place on March 15, and this, in my opinion, does not reflect positively on our political system. Elections should matter.

[jeron]

I dont see any reason why Rutte has to be replaced if the VVD is going to be the biggest non-PVV party. Rutte strenght is that he is flexible and can built several coalitions if needed, which will be needed for the next formation. Rutte is still popular despite some scandals, the only one that has the same favorable ratings is Pechtold (D66). Removing Rutte will push the VVD more to the right with Zijlstra.

Offering Foreign Affairs to Rutte would be a solution. He wouldn't necessarily have to resign as party leader. I think Rogier's scenario will only be relevant if GL is needed and I don't think it's impossible. But yes, I agree it is far more likely that Rutte will stay on, even if GL is needed.

Why the hell would GL prefer Zijlstra or Schippers instead of Rutte?

No, you misunderstand. Rogier's point is that Buma or Pechtold, who would be more acceptable to GL, would become PM in that case. Rutte could even remain on as VVD leader. Schippers and Zijlstra don't come into the picture.

Ok, in that way. Still very improbable as, I think Rutte leadership skills are needed, which everyone appreciates of him. I dont think the PM position has ever been negotiated since the 70s. And I dont think the VVD will accept that it will be negotiated if they become the largest non-PVV.

Exactly. And in the 60s and 70s the PM position was negotiated between the largest Christian parties, that already cooperated and eventually merged into CDA. Buma would probably be a Balkenende like disaster so I can't imagine anyone would want that. Both D66 and GL would prefer Rutte over Buma.

[mvd10]

Offering Rutte the foreign affairs position would piss off some VVD politicians. Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert (defense minister) and Han ten Broeke (MP) are already positioning themselves to be the next foreign affairs minister. Buma probably will end up at justice (I hope it will destroy his career, I really can't stand him). Idk about Pechtold. Education is a traditional D66 issue but it's a fairly low position for someone like Pechtold. Interior maybe? I wonder who will get the most important jobs in the next cabinet. Some high profile politicians will be dissapointed, especially if it's a 5 party coalition.

[DavidB.]

Yeah, interesting point. I could see Pechtold at the Interior. D66 may also get Social Affairs. Omtzigt (CDA) could get Finance.

I really hope Ten Broeke gets Foreign Affairs, the guy is as good as it possibly gets for a European center-right party. I do think he's the VVD's first choice by now. Van Baalen would also be a good option. But somehow I wonder whether the VVD can get both the PM and Foreign Affairs. My worst fear is that D66 Foreign Affairs spokesman Sjoerdsma gets it. Foreign Affairs, of course, is also truly a D66 issue. But maybe they can appoint In 't Veld?

Hennis is an embarrassment and should not return to Defense either (though she probably will). Perhaps I'm the only one with this opinion in the current year, but for the Defense Minister to get drunk on a tv show and puke in a bathroom is, in Rutte's words, "not normal."

I also wonder who will get Security and Justice. Probably either VVD or CDA, but I don't really see any politicians who seem capable of handling this monstrosity of a ministry. But Kajsa Ollongren (D66) may.

[Diouf]

According to Ipsos, Many more voters have already decided on their choice compared to this point in 2012. Almost twice as many voters have a strong preference for one party 4 weeks before the election. Around a third has a preference for one party, but still gives other parties a chance to convince them. Only 22% (11+11) have only a light preference or no preference at all, compared to 38% (22+16) at this point in 2012. This suggests that there won't be as big changes in the last weeks as in 2012. I can't see that Ipsos has yet released numbers for all parties, but they write that PVV voters are most locked in (66%), while GL voters are the least locked in (35%).

[DavidB.]

This one is also interesting (though of course this may be different on election day). Shows how incredibly dealigned Dutch voters are:

VVD:
The number of voters that view the VVD as their unique preference amounts to 9 seats, so this is technically their floor. The number of voters that view the VVD as their preferred option, but not their only option, amounts to 17 seats. The number of voters that don't view the VVD as their preferred option but sympathize with the party amounts to 22 seats. Ceiling: 48 seats.

PvdA:
Unique preference: 4 seats. Preference: 7 seats. Sympathy: 22 seats. Ceiling: 33 seats.

PVV:
Unique preference: 15 seats (the highest of all parties, and exactly what they got in 2012). Preference: 12 seats. Sympathy: 14 seats. Ceiling: 41 seats.

SP:
Unique preference: 3 seats. Preference: 7 seats. Sympathy: 25 seats (but most of them are unlikely to vote for the SP as long as their campaign is piss-poor). Ceiling: 35 seats.

CDA:
Unique preference: 4 seats. Preference: 14 seats. Sympathy: 23 seats. Ceiling: 41 seats.

D66:
Unique preference: 3. Preference: 14. Sympathy: 29. Ceiling: 46 (but this has been the case forever).

CU:
Unique preference: 2. Preference: 4. Sympathy: 10.

GL:
Unique preference: 4 (which is what they got in 2012). Preference: 10. Sympathy: 28. Ceiling: 42.

SGP:
Unique preference: 3. Preference: 2. Sympathy: 6. Ceiling: 11 (lol).

PvdD:
Unique preference: 2. Preference: 3. Sympathy: 9. Ceiling: 14.

50Plus:
Unique preference: 3. Preference: 6. Sympathy: 16. Ceiling: 25.

[Diouf]

Ipsos ten most important net voter movements since 2012.

PvdA > GL 6.8 seats
PvdA > non-voters 6.4 seats
VVD > PVV 5.2 seats
PvdA > D66 3.0 seats
non-voters > PVV 2.6 seats
VVD > CDA 2.6 seats
PvdA > 50Plus 2.4 seats
PvdA > PVV 2.2 seats
VVD > non-voters 2.2 seats
PvdA > SP 2.0 seats

[DC Al Fine]

This one is also interesting (though of course this may be different on election day). Shows how incredibly dealigned Dutch voters are:

VVD:
The number of voters that view the VVD as their unique preference amounts to 9 seats, so this is technically their floor. The number of voters that view the VVD as their preferred option, but not their only option, amounts to 17 seats. The number of voters that don't view the VVD as their preferred option but sympathize with the party amounts to 22 seats. Ceiling: 48 seats.

PvdA:
Unique preference: 4 seats. Preference: 7 seats. Sympathy: 22 seats. Ceiling: 33 seats.

PVV:
Unique preference: 15 seats (the highest of all parties, and exactly what they got in 2012). Preference: 12 seats. Sympathy: 14 seats. Ceiling: 41 seats.

SP:
Unique preference: 3 seats. Preference: 7 seats. Sympathy: 25 seats (but most of them are unlikely to vote for the SP as long as their campaign is piss-poor). Ceiling: 35 seats.

CDA:
Unique preference: 4 seats. Preference: 14 seats. Sympathy: 23 seats. Ceiling: 41 seats.

D66:
Unique preference: 3. Preference: 14. Sympathy: 29. Ceiling: 46 (but this has been the case forever).

CU:
Unique preference: 2. Preference: 4. Sympathy: 10.

GL:
Unique preference: 4 (which is what they got in 2012). Preference: 10. Sympathy: 28. Ceiling: 42.

SGP:
Unique preference: 3. Preference: 2. Sympathy: 6. Ceiling: 11 (lol).

PvdD:
Unique preference: 2. Preference: 3. Sympathy: 9. Ceiling: 14.

50Plus:
Unique preference: 3. Preference: 6. Sympathy: 16. Ceiling: 25.

Very interesting. I like how it shows D66's ridiculously massive gap between floor and ceiling.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well... er... I guess that whatever things we can accuse Wilders of, dog-whistling is not one of them...

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Wow, basically the exact thing he did last time. Because that was so successful!

Wilders is basically a prime example of a politician who confuses wanking off the cadre all the time with appealling to the base. I mean, I know he has his cult, bit sooner or later the Populist Right in the Netherlands has got to realise that their God Emperor is a liability right?

Wait ... Does Geert have any children that will be his Marine?

[parochial boy]

They're bringing crime. They're rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.

[SunSt0rm]

Wilders is avoiding a debate again, this time he won't attend the RTL debate on March 5th, where the 8 biggest parties will debate. He wont attend the debate, because RTL interviewed his brother, who was critical to him. Wilders will now only attend two debates. the one-to-one debate with Rutte on the 13th and the final debate at NOS.

[DavidB.]

I guess he just doesn't want to be the largest party. I'll still be voting for the PVV because I see no alternative, but he has lost so many seats since January 1. In particular, he has pissed away his support with people who are more middle-class and with younger people, at this point doing worse with the <35 demograhic than nationally according to Peil, a clear difference with the breakdown I&O showed a few weeks ago. He has made so many unforced errors. What is most electorally damaging to him at this point is the impression that he is not seriously interested in taking responsibility. This is very easy to avoid by pointing at other parties' refusal to cooperate with him, and he is not going to govern anyway. But instead he avoids debates, which means he does not reach out to the many voters that sympathize with the PVV yet are not part of his base. I am afraid he thinks his base is a lot larger than it is, and everyone who is not with him is against him at this point. But politics does not work like that. Calling it: the VVD will be the largest party, the PVV will get only slightly more than they got in 2010.

For all the talk about the strength of the PVV, it is not exactly one of the best-performing RRWPs in Western Europe in terms of electoral strength (which is overlooked because the PVV is often first in the polls). Only Norwegian Progress, the Finns Party, AfD and perhaps VB currently poll worse than the PVV. The first two participate in governments, Germany is an exceptional case and VB is more extreme and has a much more tainted past than the PVV. And all this while the Netherlands, due to dealignment and relatively wide disappointment with the political establishment, should be one of the most fertile soils for RRWPs.

[Angel of Death]

When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail. In Geert's case of course, the hammer is playing the victim. This guy has no intention whatsoever of ever being constructive in his political life.

[DavidB.]

Not even sure if that's the case. I think it's more that Wilders' strategic choices turn out to be dramatic, and since he decides everything on his own and fires everyone who disagrees with him, the unforced errors keep adding up. But who knows. My PVV-voting friends subtly reminded me of the fact that I was totally wrong when it came to predicting the U.S. election. I might be wrong again. But I don't think I am.

[DavidB.]

Parliament just voted to legalize and regulate the production process of weed in a 77-72 vote. For: PvdA, SP, D66, GL, PvdD, 50Plus, DENK, VNL, Houwers, Van Vliet, Monasch; against: VVD, CDA, PVV, CU, SGP. However, the parties that oppose this D66 initiative have a majority in the Senate (38 out of 75 seats) and it remains to be seen whether this will become law.

[Zinneke]

CDA voting against crime reduction and richer farmers, right ?

[ApatheticAustrian]

your logic and your point is sound, david but i think you underestimate the populist moment. dutch seems to be the perfect country for this experiment atm....if other parties are ready to cooperate.

[DavidB.]

your logic and your point is sound, david but i think you underestimate the populist moment. dutch seems to be the perfect country for this experiment atm....if other parties are ready to cooperate.

I'm sorry, what does this refer to?

[ApatheticAustrian]

your logic and your point is sound, david but i think you underestimate the populist moment. dutch seems to be the perfect country for this experiment atm....if other parties are ready to cooperate.

I'm sorry, what does this refer to?

ah, sorry....should have quoted.

your long sceptical post about wilder's chances 2 days ago.