Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Not even sure if that's the case. I think it's more that Wilders' strategic choices turn out to be dramatic, and since he decides everything on his own and fires everyone who disagrees with him, the unforced errors keep adding up. But who knows. My PVV-voting friends subtly reminded me of the fact that I was totally wrong when it came to predicting the U.S. election. I might be wrong again. But I don't think I am.

the firing everyone who disagrees with him sounds exactly like Trump, though

[DavidB.]

Well, he could still turn his campaign around, but he simply shoots himself in the foot by not participating in the debates. For all of Trump's mistakes, he didn't skip any of the truly relevant debates. This is especially relevant for a populist, because it allows them to address the voters directly, without all the media analysis. I guess I overreacted a little by basically implying everything was lost for him, which is not the case, but I do think his strategic choices hurt his electoral chances. And even if the atmosphere in the country is good for Wilders right now (and I think it is), most right-wing voters in the Netherlands just don't want to rock the boat; "no experiments", as Rutte said.

[ApatheticAustrian]

to be more out-spoken:

all those right-wing-nutjobs (no offense to their voters) are more or less sociopaths, who are leading their parties like family businesses and whose time is filled with scanalds, personal and political ones.

if you are living on the border of the law and good taste, you sometimes get a milo problem and mood turns against you.

more often, only educated people and politicos freak out, while low info voters either don't care, say everybody does it or - most common - see possible faults as signs of strength.

[Zinneke]

David, doesn't the municipals show that Wilders has the capability of attracting national attention without entering what his voters consider to be the establishment tricks. The guy stood in 2 cities, got a joint plurality in one and still managed to dominate the headlines. I doubt he is worried about the debates meaning that he will stay out of the limelight.

[ApatheticAustrian]

never forget, trump also dominated the debates he missed and he lost - arguably - 3 times to hillary...not even close.

[DavidB.]

He managed to dominate the headlines after the last municipal elections due to his speech, but not sure if he did so before. And let's not forget Almere and The Hague are cities where his base lives (that's why he picked these two cities in the first place). His performance in these places is going to be pretty inelastic. That is not the case in mainly suburban municipalities and in the South, where a lot more swing voters live. It is these places where he has to make the difference between 20 and 30 seats. I also think expectations in terms of debate performances, visibility etc. are much lower in muncipal elections. But we'll see. Worth noting that I'm an extreme pessimist when it comes to the electoral chances of every party or candidate I support.

[Zinneke]

Looks like PvdD are going to take Wilders' place in the debate because the devout christian party leaders can't work on Sundays.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Looks like PvdD are going to take Wilders' place in the debate because the devout christian party leaders can't work on Sundays.

Prediction: PvdD will be second in the polls next week..

[Zinneke]

Looks like PvdD are going to take Wilders' place in the debate because the devout christian party leaders can't work on Sundays.

Prediction: PvdD will be second in the polls next week..

Jesse and Marianne as the Dutch powercouple.

*drools*

[DavidB.]

Kek: GL and PvdA were dreaming of a center-left government of CDA-PvdA-GL-D66-SP-CU, but Buma now stated they can forget about that. He said the "ridiculous ideas" of left-wing parties should be combatted instead, a rather right-wing remark coming from the leader of the historically (but increasingly less) centrist CDA. Buma especially draws a contrast between GL's rigorous plans on taxes and the environment, earlier criticized by PvdA leader Asscher as "very green but not social", and between the CDA's center-right approach toward immigration and asylum and the left-wing approach. Buma also attacked Klaver specifically, saying that "Klaver's daydreams are the Dutch people's nightmares" and dismissing his agenda as elitist, naive and unaffordable for the middle class.

This was all very unsurprising and highly expected, but it does mean that the left can kiss any dreams about a center-left government goodbye. It also means VVD, CDA and D66 are virtually assured to be in the next government, which will likely be no less austere than the current one. However, it could still be beneficial to GL or PvdA to join it, because labor market reforms will have lower priority and spending will go up, which means they get a say in future decisions + may get to give out some freebies.

[DC Al Fine]

Looks like PvdD are going to take Wilders' place in the debate because the devout christian party leaders can't work on Sundays.

They can't have the debate on another day?

[DavidB.]

Apparently not. In 2012 it was not on a Sunday. They could have known this would be an unfortunate choice. Pretty sad state of affairs when a potential government party gets sidelined like that. But hey, it's 2017, etc.

[mvd10]

I wonder how being in government will affect D66 in the next elections (if they are in government, but I'm fairly sure D66 will be in the next government). Being in government seems to hurt them even more that other parties. Especially if it's a VVD-CDA-D66-CU-SGP coalition I can see D66 getting demolished in 2021.

[JA]

http://peilingwijzer.tomlouwerse.nl/2017/02/peilingwijzer-update-22-februari-2017.html?m=1

[DavidB.]

I wonder how being in government will affect D66 in the next elections (if they are in government, but I'm fairly sure D66 will be in the next government). Being in government seems to hurt them even more that other parties. Especially if it's a VVD-CDA-D66-CU-SGP coalition I can see D66 getting demolished in 2021.

I think it may be different this time around, with D66 basically having dropped the democratic reform stuff and holding a more or less established position in the Dutch party system as the cosmopolitan, socially liberal "anti-PVV". Voters will hardly be surprised with what they get if D66 enter the government. Say what you will about Pechtold, but he is pretty honest for a politician, and his electorate is more likely to accept "tough compromises." It may also help that many of the alternatives to D66 will be in government too, though some voters will inevitably flock toward GL and PvdA if these parties will not be in government.

But it remains to be seen how large D66 will be in this election in the first place. They could win slightly over 20 seats, but they could also win barely more than they won in 2012 if Jesse Klaver gains momentum. Everything between 14 and 21 seats seems possible.

[SunSt0rm]

I wonder how being in government will affect D66 in the next elections (if they are in government, but I'm fairly sure D66 will be in the next government). Being in government seems to hurt them even more that other parties. Especially if it's a VVD-CDA-D66-CU-SGP coalition I can see D66 getting demolished in 2021.

D66 is very eager to govern this time and its the last opportunity for Pechtold who already states he will resign if D66 wont be part of the next government. Moreover, D66 is needed for almost any coalition. I think it depends on the coalition. Such a coalition, you mention here, wont do well for D66 and it would probably demand a lot of its point if it steps in such a coalition (this coalition wont have a majority now as well). However, I suspect that D66 will try to cover its left wing and have PvdA and/or GL as well. In a coalition like purple where both wings are covered, D66 will do well as a compromise will be moreorless the same as programme of D66 (like the current government). The same applies that D66 wants to cover its right wing as well when a centre-left government is proposed. Thankfully, CDA closed the door to a centre-left coalition with the SP.

[SunSt0rm]

50+ has made a joke of itself and has proposed a plan to lower the retirement age back to 65 by lowering the payments. I expect the inevitable decline of 50+ will come now, the PVV will probably profit from it.

[DavidB.]

Parliament will vote on the Association Agreement in ten minutes. A majority of VVD, PvdA, D66 and GroenLinks will vote for it. This will be painful for Rutte in the debates.

[Tender Branson]

Apparently, Wilders has cancelled all of his planned public appearances.

A member of his personal security team (of Moroccan origin, lol) apparently tried to kill him or something.

[mvd10]

Apparently, Wilders has cancelled all of his planned public appearances.

A member of his personal security team (of Moroccan origin, lol) apparently tried to kill him or something.

He ''just'' leaked information to Moroccan gangs (well he is accused of leaking so idk if it's true). We don't know if it was specifically about Wilders or about his other clients.

[freek]

Apparently, Wilders has cancelled all of his planned public appearances.

A member of his personal security team (of Moroccan origin, lol) apparently tried to kill him or something.

Not really. He is accused of corruption. Moroccan gangsters were apparently in possession of confidential police information that was accessed by this police man. It is not clear what kind of information, but probably related to this gang, not to Wilders.

[Angel of Death]

In this time of global populist fervor, the most underplayed story of this election has to be the quite lousy performance of the SP and that, despite the imminent collapse of the PvdA. It's hard to pin this entirely on the seemingly uncharismatic Roemer.

[DL]

Is the 50+ party generally seen as leftwing or rightwing?

[Zinneke]

Is the 50+ party generally seen as leftwing or rightwing?

Neither. Its a boomer party with boomer values.
For its worth, some members high up on their list are ex-PvdA, CDA, and FNV (trade unions), and a banker. I think they've long abandoned their ideologies though.

You'll have to ask DavidB about their voters because I have (thankfully) never met any.

[DavidB.]

Over 70% of their support in the West probably comes from PVV and SP (in that order); outside the West there will also be more disillusioned CDA, PvdA and VVD voters (in that order) flocking to 50Plus. I only met one 50Plus voter, the father of a friend of mine, who is still an SP member and used to be a lifelong SP voter. Many 50Plus voters appear to have the same economic views as the SP and the same views on immigration/Muslims/national identity as the PVV, but simply prioritize their own pensions when voting. There are also a lot of people who just don't know who to vote for, realize that they are older than 50, don't know anything about the party's other plans (and don't feel like reading up) and decide to vote for them.

As for the 50Plus candidates, yeah, as Rogier said, many of them have a background in an establishment party or a trade union and will probably be more "cosmopolitan" at heart than their anti-immigrant voters -- but it is not as if it matters to these candidates. They don't really care about anything except for more money for the elderly. I'd say 50Plus are neither left-wing nor right-wing, just a special interest party.