Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[DavidB.]

I hope you and the people close to you are okay, JosepBroz. Aren't you in Brussels?

Security & Justice Minister Ard van der Steur (VVD) is in dire straits. Ibrahim el Bakraoui, one of the perpetrators of the Brussels attacks, had been deported from Turkey to the Netherlands in July 2015 because Turkey knew there was a terrorist threat. The Dutch got an intelligence notification with "very urgent" on it, but did not open it and let El Bakraoui go. Van der Steur blames Turkey, but that is not considered very convincing. What makes it worse, German terror suspect Samir E., to whom Brussels terrorist attacks perpetrator Khaled el Bakraoui sent his last text message, also landed in the Netherlands in July 2015 without any problems -- on the very same flight as Ibrahim. 

In short, to put it bluntly, people get the impression that the Netherlands has become the gateway for terrorists to the EU because the Security & Justice Ministry, which has been a merger of several ministries since 2010, is incompetent. This has to do with the fact that there is a toxic culture in the ministry, which is too large and basically unmanageable for ministers.

It is likely that Van der Steur will have to step down. This has the potential to become a scandal that can make the government collapse, especially given Van der Steur's extremely bad explanation in parliament, so it would be better for the government if he steps down by himself.

[jeron]

I hope you and the people close to you are okay, JosepBroz. Aren't you in Brussels?

Security & Justice Minister Ard van der Steur (VVD) is in dire straits. Ibrahim el Bakraoui, one of the perpetrators of the Brussels attacks, had been deported from Turkey to the Netherlands in July 2015 because Turkey knew there was a terrorist threat. The Dutch got an intelligence notification with "very urgent" on it, but did not open it and let El Bakraoui go. Van der Steur blames Turkey, but that is not considered very convincing. What makes it worse, German terror suspect Samir E., to whom Brussels terrorist attacks perpetrator Khaled el Bakraoui sent his last text message, also landed in the Netherlands in July 2015 without any problems -- on the very same flight as Ibrahim. 

In short, to put it bluntly, people get the impression that the Netherlands has become the gateway for terrorists to the EU because the Security & Justice Ministry, which has been a merger of several ministries since 2010, is incompetent. This has to do with the fact that there is a toxic culture in the ministry, which is too large and basically unmanageable for ministers.

It is likely that Van der Steur will have to step down. This has the potential to become a scandal that can make the government collapse, especially given Van der Steur's extremely bad explanation in parliament, so it would be better for the government if he steps down by himself.

The question is will the VVD be prepared to let him go now. It would be the second minister within this ministry to step down and VVD may want to avoid that. It does show the failure that the ministry has been. After the next elections the police will go back to the interior ministry.

[DavidB.]

The question is will the VVD be prepared to let him go now. It would be the second minister within this ministry to step down and VVD may want to avoid that. It does show the failure that the ministry has been. After the next elections the police will go back to the interior ministry.

Depends on how big of a story this is going to be, and how much pressure there will be. The VVD, indeed, might want to avoid Van der Steur from having to step down, but that would still be an infinitely better outcome for the VVD than the government collapsing. Early elections before the summer (or right after the summer, like in 2012) would be an utter disaster for them. It would totally ruin the positive story they are preparing for 2017 ("it wasn't always easy, but we finished the job and we have been responsible").

[DavidB.]

New TNS Nipo poll: 32% "definitely" intend to vote, 25% will "probably" do so. 54% are against, 36% in favor and 10% don't know.

The government has stepped up its game and launched a last-minute campaigning plan, which includes a media offensive (national newspapers, talkshows) and sending tweets from the new account @oekraine6april. Apparently, the ministers don't like talking about Ukraine and try to dodge their responsibilities. All this has been leaked to RTL, which published it. The underlying assumption of the government's strategy, the idea that the government can convince people to turn out and vote for, seems a bit misguided. It might as well lead to an anti-government backlash and drive up the vote among people who oppose the agreement. The government should probably have let the parties deal with it. The only reason it does not do so seems to be that this would be "not done" vis-à-vis the EU (plus some typical Mark Rutte hybris, perhaps). However, it seems foolish for an unpopular government to try and promote an unpopular agreement, and its foolishness might come at a price.

Rutte now stated that if it were up to him, Ukraine would never become an EU member. Comparisons with Rutte stating (in September 2012) that if it were up to him, no euro would be spent on Greece anymore were low-hanging fruit, of course.

At this point, this referendum has "2005 European constitution scenario" written all over it. The Dutch will vote against, and the low turnout escape route seems to be closed off by all the media attention (and the government's campaign): the referendum will be the number 1 issue during the coming days.

[DavidB.]

My prediction for tomorrow: 40% for, 60% against, 37% turnout.

Polls are open from 7:30 until 21:00.

[DavidB.]

Just voted against the agreement.

Turnout in Rotterdam was 3% at 10AM. In the European Parliament election in 2014 (total turnout Rotterdam: 35.1%) it was 4.3%.

[DavidB.]

It is currently the question whether the 30% turnout threshold will be reached. Most analysts expect turnout to be barely over 30% on the basis of the incoming figures, but these seem to be strikingly low -- Amsterdam had only 6.5% turnout at 1PM. I take all #analysis with many grains of salt, including pollster Maurice de Hond's remark that if turnout will not be over 13% at 4PM in the big cities, the threshold will not be reached. Pollster, political science professor and professional attention whore André Krouwel expected turnout to be around 50%. People should know whom they cannot take seriously anymore in the future.

I personally think there will be a larger difference between minority turnout (except for Jews -- all three of us are sure to vote...) and Dutch turnout in this election, because Muslim and (certain) Surinamese minorities have less of a reason to vote than in regular elections. Hence, the discrepancy between turnout in large cities and turnout outside the large cities will be larger, which is why I think low turnout figures in the cities do not necessarily imply that the threshold will not be reached (although it is obviously relevant), but again, you should also take this #analysis with some grains of salt...

[DavidB.]

Current estimate: 30.8%

[DavidB.]

Turnout seems to be quite high in no-areas (Maastricht, Dordrecht) and extremely low in yes-areas (Amsterdam). This is going to be a landslide. Fully expect no to get at least 60% of the vote.

new estimate:

and these are only some large (and a few not so large) cities. turnout outside large cities will be higher. still, this model is based on EP14 and very problematic in many respects, so I will be biting my nails for the rest of the day

[DavidB.]

Results will be published here

[SunSt0rm]

Exit polls in 10 minutes

Most important is whether the 30% threshold will be reached, its going to be Too Close to Call

[Tender Branson]

I'd vote "Yes".

But I'm not sure if the voters will back it.

My prediction:

53% Yes
47% No

32% Turnout.

[SunSt0rm]

Exit Poll

Turnout 29%

For 36%
Against 64%

[Angel of Death]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Participation_criterion#Quorum_requirements

[DavidB.]

Turnout in ipsos exit poll adjusted to 32%.

Finished counting myself. Huge no victory in affluent municipality. Immediately knew this was going to be a landslide.

[DavidB.]

10.9% counted.

36.8% for
62.5% against

Turnout: 32.8%

[DavidB.]

30.8% counted.

37.5% for
61.7% against

Turnout: 31.8%

[DavidB.]

Turnout figure includes Rotterdam, excludes Utrecht, The Hague and Amsterdam. Might dip under 30% if these are included. Turnout in Noord-Brabant seems low too.

[DavidB.]

51.2% counted.

37.8% for
61.4% against

Turnout: 32.3%

[DavidB.]

Amsterdam is in, turnout still over 32%. If I were the NOS and this would be the US, I'd call it.

[DavidB.]

79.5% counted.

37.7% for
61.5% against

Turnout: 32.3%

[DavidB.]

pretty sure i'm making these posts for myself right now, but i'm quite enjoying myself doing so...

[Derpist]

No, I'm reading them. Congratulations to the Dutch!

[Beezer]

So am I. Thanks for the insights. Is there any life in a possible Nexit campaign?

[DavidB.]

99.8% counted.

38.1% for
61.1% against

Turnout: 32.2%

It's a done deal.