Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[DavidB.]

50Plus will also go down before the election, and I expect many of their voters to ultimately opt for PVV and SP.

The Rotterdam referendum: 71% against, 26% for with 16.9% turnout, so threshold not reached. Alderman Schneider apparently said he could not ignore a "no" vote if the threshold was reached, but will now proceed with the initial plans.

[Zinneke]

I think CDA will gradually go down as the election comes nearer. In this case its probably due to 50PLUS

Could there be tactical voting to VVD from CDA, D66 and 50 plus to prevent a PVV victory?

There is historical precedent of it becoming a two horse race to block the other's rise like 2012. But I think a lot of people felt let down by the subsequent government formation. I think that like 2012 narratives will matter though, and CDA just seem to have no narrative to this election yet, just a capability of getting out their voters and engaging in clientelism in the rural South.

[DavidB.]

This is the most recent (November 29) EenVandaag poll, which I think is the best one. Up/down is compared to last month's poll.

PVV 31 (+3)
VVD 25 (-)
SP 16 (-1)
GroenLinks 15 (+6)
CDA 15 (-4)
D66 12 (-3)
PvdA 12 (-)
50Plus 9 (+1)
CU 7 (-1)
PvdD 3 (-1)
SGP 3 (-1)
VNL 1 (-)
DENK 1 (+1)

Yesterday two motions related to Israel were discussed and voted on. Together with Tunahan Kuzu (DENK) and Sjoerd Sjoerdsma (D66), Harry van Bommel, the SP's foreign affairs spokesman who will leave parliament after the election, introduced the umpteenth motion on recognizing "Palestine", which failed by 76-71 due to our own Freiwall consisting of VVD, CDA, PVV, CU, SGP and VNL. The PVV introduced a motion on recognizing Jerusalem as Israel's capital and moving the embassy, which failed by a larger margin. Only PVV, CU, SGP and VNL voted for it.

There has been some discussion on a tweet by Tunahan Kuzu (DENK) after the vote on recognizing "Palestine". A controversial habit of DENK MPs has been singling out the votes of Muslim MPs in other parties and subsequently name and shame them on the internet in YouTube videos and tweets. In the past, they did this to highlight Turkish Dutch MPs' perceived "treason" on the Armenian genocide and when certain Muslim MPs in SP and PvdA voted against increasing the security level of mosques. This time, Kuzu tweeted to CDA MP Mustafa Amhaouch that he is "partly responsible for the fact that Palestine is not recognized today." Amhaouch responded by stating that while DENK pretends to be the first and foremost opponent to ethnic profiling, they themselves are exhibit A of the practice themselves. Of course, this is an incredibly smart strategy for DENK that will doubtlessly pay off on election day.

[rob in cal]

  Assuming the PVV does win a small plurality of seats, and that Wilders tries to form a government, what other parties would be potential coalition allies, or are there any?

[DL]

  Assuming the PVV does win a small plurality of seats, and that Wilders tries to form a government, what other parties would be potential coalition allies, or are there any?

I'm guessing that the PVV is like the similar Danish People's Party - the last thing they want is to actually be in government and have to make real, live decisions. They much prefer being able to scream and yell form outside - so even if they are the largest party - they would decline to even try to lead a government...and seriously that other party in the Netherlands wants to be be complicit in making Geert Wilders the PM?

[DavidB.]

Assuming the PVV does win a small plurality of seats, and that Wilders tries to form a government, what other parties would be potential coalition allies, or are there any?

None. Wilders burned all his bridges when the Rutte-I government collapsed and his party radicalized. Any coalition formation attempt by the PVV would be either extremely short-lived (after which the VVD gets to form a government), or some parties would engage in a useless ritual dance which could take a while but eventually end up failing anyway -- probably the former. This is a likely outcome of the election, imo.

I'm guessing that the PVV is like the similar Danish People's Party - the last thing they want is to actually be in government and have to make real, live decisions. They much prefer being able to scream and yell form outside - so even if they are the largest party - they would decline to even try to lead a government...and seriously that other party in the Netherlands wants to be be complicit in making Geert Wilders the PM?

Uh, what? The Danish People's Party have been making real life decisions for most of their existence, since between 2001 and 2011 and from 2015 until now they have been necessary to uphold various right-wing Danish governments (which would otherwise have a majority against them) through informal demand and supply deals. Of all radical right-wing parties in Europe they may be the most "establishmentarian", which actually caused a new party to manoeuvre itself to the DPP's right.

It is very true that the PVV have much fear of actual power and would probably like to remain in opposition (or lead a government, which is totally unrealistic), but that makes them very much unlike the Danish People's Party, who have not truly been in opposition for most of their existence.

[DL]

What I mean is that the DPP has only been willing to support a rightwing coalition from outside. They refuse to have actual cabinet seats in a coalition government and in the last Danish election even though they actually had the largest number of seats of any of the "non-socialist" parties - they had no interest in actually leading the government having their leader be PM - they prefer to sit outside and just have influence

[DavidB.]

What I mean is that the DPP has only been willing to support a rightwing coalition from outside. They refuse to have actual cabinet seats in a coalition government and in the last Danish election even though they actually had the largest number of seats of any of the "non-socialist" parties - they had no interest in actually leading the government having their leader be PM - they prefer to sit outside and just have influence

Well, it is true that DF have not been part of the government yet, but there is a huge difference between a party that supports governments from the outside, strikes deals (including ones that may be painful electorally) and takes responsibility on the one hand and a party that is truly in the opposition all the time (except for the short-lived Rutte-I attempt, that is) on the other hand. "Screaming and yelling from the outside" and refusing to make "real life decisions" may be characteristics that are applicable to the PVV, but they are certainly not applicable to DF, even if they have avoided a certain type of responsibility up to now.

It is said that during the negotiations for our own "Danish experiment" in 2010 Wilders was in touch with DF and got information for the best negotiating strategy, etc. PVV and DF were close. Nowadays they are not at all close anymore: the parties the PVV cooperate with internationally are FN, FPÖ etc., quite a different type of RRWPs. Under the Rutte-I government there was so much obstructionism going on by the CDA, and Wilders tanked in the polls. When the government collapsed, however, things changed. At that point, I assume, he thought "never again"and decided to focus on shifting the Overton window and going for the long game (a poor strategic choice) -- that is, if he has had any strategy. It is obvious that if he wants to exert influence in a more traditional way (i.e. by being part of a government or sustaining a minority government from the outside), he should moderate his tone. However, he has never done that and he is unlikely to ever do it, I think.

[DavidB.]

Unrest in GroenLinks: incumbent MP Liesbeth van Tongeren, former director of Greenpeace Netherlands and spokesperson on green issues/the environment/climate issues, has been deselected. She was told that her positioning on this issue was "good, but not good enough." Van Tongeren said that she would have accepted this if the board had proposed a candidate with a clearly better "green" profile, but this turned out not to be the case. Many were surprised by the events, and politicians of various parties came to Van Tongeren's defense, saying her hard work leads to real results.

Now Van Tongeren seeks to be elected to the list by the party membership. Several GL branches, such as in Zeeland and in Groningen (where Van Tongeren was active in the campaign against natural gas winning, a hot topic because of the earthquakes in the area), have now endorsed Van Tongeren, to the dismay of the national party organization: GL chair Marjolein Meijer sent out an e-mail in which she stated that local branches are not allowed to do so because candidates "deserve a level playing field".

Van Tongeren, who has been an MP since 2010, received more than 10,000 preference votes in 2012, thrice as many as current party leader Jesse Klaver.

The top 15 on the list proposed by the board:
1. Jesse Klaver, party leader
2. Kathalijne Buitenweg, former GL MEP
3. Tom van der Lee, board member Oxfam Novib Netherlands
4. Linda Voortman, MP
5. Rik Grashoff, MP
6. Corinne Ellemeet, former MP and board member of environmentalist organizations
7. Zihni Özdil, philosopher and thinker on issues related to multiculturalism (I like this guy a lot tbh)
8. Bart Snels, head of the GL's "think tank"
9. Suzanne Kröger, Greenpeace
10. Bram van Ojik, former party leader and incumbent MP
11. Nevin Özütok, former MP
12. Paul Smeulders, alderman in Helmond and active for green organization Natuurmonumenten
13. Lisa Westerveld, former chair of the national student union'
14. Laura Bromet, alderwoman in Waterland (Noord-Holland) and active for Milieudefensie and Natuurmonumenten
15. Wim-Jan Renkema, former school principal

[DavidB.]

New peil.nl poll has PVV +1 to 34, PvdD +1 to 5, VVD -1 to 24 and D66 -1 to 14. The SP is now at 11 seats, -4 compared to TK12 and the only opposition party losing seats, truly a piss poor performance given the PvdA's unpopularity.


The gap between those who prefer Rutte and those who would prefer Samsom as PM is 28 points; between Rutte and Asscher 6 points. D66 voters prefer Rutte over Samsom but Asscher over Rutte. It is clear that Asscher would be the more electable PvdA leader, though in both cases more people would prefer Rutte.

In the case of a PVV-VVD two-horse race, the PVV could get a "bonus" of 7 seats and the VVD of 6 seats. For the PVV, those would mainly come from higher turnout (potential non-voters), SP and 50Plus; for the VVD from CDA, D66 and turnout.

[freek]

All this may lead to more than 100,000 votes essentially being thrown away if all three parties end up under the 0,67% threshold, though it remains to be seen whether FvD and GP will actually get on the ballot.

Why wouldn't they get on the ballot? It is not that difficult, if you have some kind of a party organization.

[Zinneke]

All this may lead to more than 100,000 votes essentially being thrown away if all three parties end up under the 0,67% threshold, though it remains to be seen whether FvD and GP will actually get on the ballot.

Why wouldn't they get on the ballot? It is not that difficult, if you have some kind of a party organization.

Its still a costly exercise and I think its fair to say that the Dutch Right is hard electoral market to enter right now.

New peil.nl poll has PVV +1 to 34, PvdD +1 to 5, VVD -1 to 24 and D66 -1 to 14. The SP is now at 11 seats, -4 compared to TK12 and the only opposition party losing seats, truly a piss poor performance given the PvdA's unpopularity.

What is GL's score in light of PVDA's unpopularity?

[freek]

All this may lead to more than 100,000 votes essentially being thrown away if all three parties end up under the 0,67% threshold, though it remains to be seen whether FvD and GP will actually get on the ballot.

Why wouldn't they get on the ballot? It is not that difficult, if you have some kind of a party organization.

Its still a costly exercise and I think its fair to say that the Dutch Right is hard electoral market to enter right now.

New peil.nl poll has PVV +1 to 34, PvdD +1 to 5, VVD -1 to 24 and D66 -1 to 14. The SP is now at 11 seats, -4 compared to TK12 and the only opposition party losing seats, truly a piss poor performance given the PvdA's unpopularity.

What is GL's score in light of PVDA's unpopularity?

[DavidB.]

All this may lead to more than 100,000 votes essentially being thrown away if all three parties end up under the 0,67% threshold, though it remains to be seen whether FvD and GP will actually get on the ballot.

Why wouldn't they get on the ballot? It is not that difficult, if you have some kind of a party organization.

I don't doubt they could do it if they want to, but that doesn't mean that what they say is what they are actually going to do. It's more likely than not that yes, they will be on the ballot -- but I believe it when I see it. Though they did get a lot of media attention today for their idea of organizing online referendums on all proposals and just voting along with the majority on the internet. A terrible idea imo.

What is GL's score in light of PVDA's unpopularity?

At 14 seats, +10 compared to the 2012 GE. 14 seats woul be an all-time high for the party. Safe to say Klaver has the momentum on the left and GL are the main benefactor from the PvdA's implosion, though Asscher would probably be able to win back at least some PvdA-GL swing voters (but perhaps even more PvdA-D66 swing voters).

[DavidB.]

Curious to hear how the other Dutch posters think about this, because I'm starting to get the idea that if (big if, probably not going to happen!) the PVV truly becomes the largest party with, say, 7 seats more than the VVD, as the polls now indicate, that a coalition consisting of both PVV and VVD may be in the cards (though even then it is unlikely).

Most Dutch voters think the PVV should be in the government if they become the largest party and it will become extremely difficult for the VVD to ignore that wish, particularly because most VVD voters are not opposed to cooperation with the PVV. If VVD and PVV add up to 60 seats and they have a majority with 50Plus, SGP and (difficult again, I know) CU, a PVV-VVD minority government with Rutte as PM and the CU, 50Plus and SGP supporting this trainwreck from the outside (including some occasional CDA support wherever necessary, though obviously not nearly as close as in the Rutte-I govt as the idea of cooperating with the PVV is very, very toxic in the CDA) may actually happen. The real problem for such a PVVVD coalition would be in the Senate, but CDA senators may be willing to budge there. Of course, this all assumes that Wilders is willing to govern, which is absolutely not something I would be willing to bet on.

Now, to be clear, I don't expect the PVV to win by a large margin (say, 6+ seats) over the "second party", I don't expect Rutte to be okay with governing with the PVV, and I don't think CU would be likely to accept any of this... but I also don't think it is impossible, especially if the political landscape would be as awfully fragmented as polls currently suggest and if alternative would be some centrist coalition that would have to involve four or five out of VVD, CDA, D66, SP, GL and PvdA. Most parties would rather sit back and watch the sh**tshow from the outside. It's still extremely unlikely. But I don't think it's impossible.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

How secure is Roemer's leadership of the SP at the moment, given their poor polling at the moment?

[SunSt0rm]

Curious to hear how the other Dutch posters think about this, because I'm starting to get the idea that if (big if, probably not going to happen!) the PVV truly becomes the largest party with, say, 7 seats more than the VVD, as the polls now indicate, that a coalition consisting of both PVV and VVD may be in the cards (though even then it is unlikely).

Most Dutch voters think the PVV should be in the government if they become the largest party and it will become extremely difficult for the VVD to ignore that wish, particularly because most VVD voters are not opposed to cooperation with the PVV. If VVD and PVV add up to 60 seats and they have a majority with 50Plus, SGP and (difficult again, I know) CU, a PVV-VVD minority government with Rutte as PM and the CU, 50Plus and SGP supporting this trainwreck from the outside (including some occasional CDA support wherever necessary, though obviously not nearly as close as in the Rutte-I govt as the idea of cooperating with the PVV is very, very toxic in the CDA) may actually happen. The real problem for such a PVVVD coalition would be in the Senate, but CDA senators may be willing to budge there. Of course, this all assumes that Wilders is willing to govern, which is absolutely not something I would be willing to bet on.

Now, to be clear, I don't expect the PVV to win by a large margin (say, 6+ seats) over the "second party", I don't expect Rutte to be okay with governing with the PVV, and I don't think CU would be likely to accept any of this... but I also don't think it is impossible, especially if the political landscape would be as awfully fragmented as polls currently suggest and if alternative would be some centrist coalition that would have to involve four or five out of VVD, CDA, D66, SP, GL and PvdA. Most parties would rather sit back and watch the sh**tshow from the outside. It's still extremely unlikely. But I don't think it's impossible.

I think such a scenario is very unlikely. The only person in the VVD, I guess would serious consider is Zijlstra, who is on the right of the VVD, but even then its still unlikely. The differences between the VVD and PVV are large, they may only agree on immigration and slashing on foreign aid, but economically, on Europe and on the Islam, the differences are large. Even if they somehow agree with each other, I only think SGP and VNL may join them, but such a combination will not have a majority, and is far from a majority in the senate. About 50plus no idea, but I dont thnk the VVD is willing corperate with both the PVV and 50plus.

CDA will not support them after what happened in Rutte-1 and CU is to the left of the CDA, so no chance. Furthermore any proposal from the PVV on immigration, Europe or the Islam will not make it through the senate anyway.

On the other hand, an establishment coalition (VVD, CDA, D66, PVDA, GL and CU) seems difficult as well, such a coalition would weak and very vunerable to populists parties. Next, I dont think GL and PVDA are willing to join a centre right coalition after what happened to the PVDA now. On the other hand, I find it difficult to imagine that CDA and D66 will join a left coalition of PVDA, SP and GL. The only realistic stable coalition I see will consist of VVD, CDA and D66 with support of CU and SGP. But then D66 would have to suck the left vote. So yeah, it seems Dutch politics is clusterfck

How secure is Roemer's leadership of the SP at the moment, given their poor polling at the moment?

Secured before the election, but he is probably finished after the election

[DavidB.]

I think such a scenario is very unlikely. The only person in the VVD, I guess would serious consider is Zijlstra, who is on the right of the VVD, but even then its still unlikely. The differences between the VVD and PVV are large, they may only agree on immigration and slashing on foreign aid, but economically, on Europe and on the Islam, the differences are large. Even if they somehow agree with each other, I only think SGP and VNL may join them, but such a combination will not have a majority, and is far from a majority in the senate. About 50plus no idea, but I dont thnk the VVD is willing corperate with both the PVV and 50plus.

CDA will not support them after what happened in Rutte-1 and CU is to the left of the CDA, so no chance. Furthermore any proposal from the PVV on immigration, Europe or the Islam will not make it through the senate anyway.

Yes, I totally agree that it's still very unlikely and that not much PVV policy would actually be passed. I also agree that there are numerous other things which make it incredibly unlikely for such a coalition to be formed. The only thing I assess differently than you is the idea that only Zijlstra would be willing to take into consideration governing with the PVV. The VVD have no backbone. If they think they would be able to get a better deal out of a coalition with the PVV -- which of course is not a given -- they would probably do it. We have seen how flexible Rutte is. The PVV is currently pretty far away ideologically from the VVD, but so was the PvdA. Numerous differences between these situations, but still. The VVD consist of opportunists.

On the other hand, an establishment coalition (VVD, CDA, D66, PVDA, GL and CU) seems difficult as well, such a coalition would weak and very vunerable to populists parties. Next, I dont think GL and PVDA are willing to join a centre right coalition after what happened to the PVDA now. On the other hand, I find it difficult to imagine that CDA and D66 will join a left coalition of PVDA, SP and GL. The only realistic stable coalition I see will consist of VVD, CDA and D66 with support of CU and SGP. But then D66 would have to suck the left vote. So yeah, it seems Dutch politics is clusterfck

Yes, I agree. A VVD-CDA-D66 minority government with CU, SGP, 50Plus outside support seems to be the most likely scenario at this point to me (and it has been for a long time, I think I said such at page 1 of this thread too). I simply cannot imagine GL, having taken a sharp turn to the left under Klaver, doing it (GL under Halsema would have done it), and the PvdA really, really need a break from governing even if Asscher becomes leader and they win about 20 seats. That means all other centrist parties and perhaps the SP, who are showing signs that they are open to governing with D66 and the VVD, will have to be part of the deal, whether inside or outside the government. Instability galore.

[Angel of Death]

A (mostly) nonpartisan government of technocrats (like one Monti lead in Italy) might possibly provide a solution after the next election, although you have to go back to the 19th century for Dutch examples.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

How secure is Roemer's leadership of the SP at the moment, given their poor polling at the moment?

Secured before the election, but he is probably finished after the election

Any likely successors? SP is definitely a party that (on paper) should benefit from the current malaise, so their failure is pretty interesting.

[Zinneke]

How secure is Roemer's leadership of the SP at the moment, given their poor polling at the moment?

Secured before the election, but he is probably finished after the election

Any likely successors? SP is definitely a party that (on paper) should benefit from the current malaise, so their failure is pretty interesting.

Perhaps in industrial centers with strong Marxist cultures of opposition and trade unionism, and the whole progressive ideology that comes with it. SP's equivalent in Belgium is at a whopping 18% in the South, where most of the population live in the industrial belt of Wallonia (Sambre-Meuse valley).

SP's main core vote comes from places like the North that are extremely depressed and traditionally vote for the left and then places that resemble the Walloon industrial belt a lot, like Oss, Boxmeer, and South Limburg - where it is pretty much in a split plurality with the PVV. Unfortunately their ground game appears to be heavily limited to targeting old industry and old voters and not going any further, and these regions tend to decrease in population thanks to a flexible labour market for young people.

PVV also simply monopolise issues like immigration in the media which attract part of the industrial vote SP is obsessed with, along with urban (GroenLinks), suburban (PVV-GroenLinks) and rural (CDA-CU-50+) voters.

Roemer is definitely a liability and there is a lot of tactical voting that is starting to form up. They were in the bracket of parties all on 20 seats before. SP suffer heavily from the structural reasons above and from having a de facto cordon sanitaire around them - yet PVV didn't. In Belgium its the opposite, although the N-VA are thinking of ending the cordon sanitaire with the extreme right.

[DavidB.]

Any likely successors? SP is definitely a party that (on paper) should benefit from the current malaise, so their failure is pretty interesting.

Renske Leijten, spokesperson on healthcare, seems to be the heir apparent in the party hierarchy. Would probably not be a big success either, though she will probably be taken more seriously than Roemer, who comes across as a kind but not too intelligent provincial uncle. But Leijten doesn't seem like someone who would be able to change the discourse and receive 25> seats, though in Dutch politics you never know.

JosepBroz's post is good (though I think he misinterpreted Crabcake's question), but one point of disagreement: I don't think you can say there has been or was a de facto cordon sanitaire against the SP, simply because there is no evidence for it. Before 2006, when PvdA and CDA both still received 35-45 seats on a structural basis, the SP were small/unnecessary to form a government. In 2006 they actually did engage in government talks, but the PvdA weren't all that enthusiastic (always an issue on the left) and the differences with the CDA were large, so negotiations were ended and the CU were taken into the government instead. In 2010, the SP lost 9 seats and the logical alternative to VVD-CDA-PVV would have been VVD-PvdA-D66-GroenLinks (purple plus). In 2012, Roemer bombed in the debate (while the PvdA was pushed 24/7 by Hilversum, where Samsom was considered the Messiah), lost all his virtual gains, and was subsequently unnecessary for a coalition. Nowadays, the SP have been in government in places such as Amsterdam and Utrecht and provinces such as Noord-Brabant, Zuid-Holland and Groningen, with other parties stating that cooperating with the SP is far preferable to cooperating with the PvdA. There has been no de facto cordon sanitaire. When the SP was not invited for government talks it was either too small/irrelevant or too far away ideologically from other parties, which is a perfectly normal part of the political process in which parties engage all the time: after all, parties can, to a certain degree, be assumed to be policy-seeking.

[Zinneke]

Geert Wilders found guilty of inciting discrimination against Dutch Morrocans. Judge said that no sentence or fine would be given as it is sufficient punishment to be found guilty given Wilders is a politician. Judge clearly knows nothing about politics then.

Also, DavidB, you are right, SP can't be under a cordon sanitaire given that at local levels they are integrated, unlike VB. But I think the cordon sanitaire tactic on a national level worked wonders against them in 2012 and it will be the same this time round. Under Marijnissen too I remember they did well in the mid-2000s and the mainstream political parties just ignored them, while pandering to the LPF before and Geertje afterwards. I know Fortuyn and Wilders are not VB but they aren't exactly choir children either compared to SP's relatively soft democratic socialism.

[DavidB.]

To be precise, Wilders was convicted of group insult and incitement to discrimination, but not of incitement to hatred. As Rogier said, Wilders will not be punished for his remarks: no fine or something like that. The public prosecutor accepted this, stating it is more important to establish that there is a limit to politicians' freedom of speech ("they are not above the law") and that Wilders has been irresponsible.

It remains to be seen what the political consequences will be (probably very little by the time the election takes place, people will stop caring after a few weeks), but polls indicate that most people think this trial should not have happened in the first place, and to some, a conviction without any consequences might be the ultimate proof that this has been a political process all along or something like that. At least I don't expect this trial to affect Wilders negatively (if the court expects anything like that they are indeed more than foolish), and if I were Rutte I would certainly not bring it up in any debate in an ill-advised attempt to make himself look Prime Ministerial.

[mvd10]

Asscher just defeated Samsom 54.5-45.5 in the PvdA primary. I expected Samsom to win tbh. I wonder what this means for potential coalitions. I always saw Asscher as more centrist than Samsom but lately Asscher has been talking about a strong left-wing block with SP and GroenLinks.