Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

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How many party manifestos/policy planks have been released btw?

[DavidB.]

How many party manifestos/policy planks have been released btw?

A quick round of Googling taught me that VVD, D66, 50Plus, CU, PvdD, VNL, FVD and DENK have (not taking into account anything that's even less likely to win a seat than FVD). GL, SP, CDA and PVV have released a concept -- in the first three cases those can be assumed to be almost final, in the case of the PVV it was only an A4, but it's doubtful they will actually release anything else. PvdA will release it next week afaik. I know the SGP had a concept version (which included a ban on Muslim calls for prayer from minarets) but don't know about the final version -- can't access the website because it's Sunday, but I think it's likely it was approved on their convention yesterday, and otherwise it will soon be published.

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Any hilarious/wack policies that everybody is making fun of?

[DavidB.]

Any hilarious/wack policies that everybody is making fun of?

The entire circus hasn't started yet -- I doubt most people know there's going to be an election in March. Until now, everything I've seen from the parties has been boring and predictable except for the SGP's "Daily Allahu Akbar calls from the mosque. Sometimes you'd like to have more SGP..." stuff which was widely ridiculed, but that is probably only known among nerds. And then there was of course the boring outrage over the PVV's thingy (as if their voters care).

[DC Al Fine]

Any hilarious/wack policies that everybody is making fun of?

The entire circus hasn't started yet -- I doubt most people know there's going to be an election in March. Until now, everything I've seen from the parties has been boring and predictable except for the SGP's "Daily Allahu Akbar calls from the mosque. Sometimes you'd like to have more SGP..." stuff which was widely ridiculed, but that is probably only known among nerds. And then there was of course the boring outrage over the PVV's thingy (as if their voters care).

SGP actively campaigns? I always thought their share of the vote was largely a function of the population at large. Or do they do all the usual campaign stuff to try and take votes from CDA and CU?

[DavidB.]

Any hilarious/wack policies that everybody is making fun of?

The entire circus hasn't started yet -- I doubt most people know there's going to be an election in March. Until now, everything I've seen from the parties has been boring and predictable except for the SGP's "Daily Allahu Akbar calls from the mosque. Sometimes you'd like to have more SGP..." stuff which was widely ridiculed, but that is probably only known among nerds. And then there was of course the boring outrage over the PVV's thingy (as if their voters care).

SGP actively campaigns? I always thought their share of the vote was largely a function of the population at large. Or do they do all the usual campaign stuff to try and take votes from CDA and CU?

While campaiging is arguably much less important for the SGP than for all other parties, they still need to get their supporters to the polls (and they probably also think politicians have a duty to campaign). It's not as if turnout is 100% on Urk. And there are CU-SGP and CDA-SGP swing voters. Easy to see where those gains came from:


They are sufficiently savvy to understand that there are quite some voters who don't belong to their community yet may vote SGP even if the party doesn't change its stances (which it won't compromise on). This is especially the case since the 2015 provincial elections, in which they made important gains because of conservative/right-wing voters like me who voted for them despite not being part of their "pillar". Those voters have to be reminded of the fact that the SGP's politics are broadly in line with theirs. Of course, those people are not really important for the party, but it may just make the difference between 3 and 4 seats (or 2 and 3). It certainly did in the provincial councils and the Senate.

[SunSt0rm]

How many party manifestos/policy planks have been released btw?

People have been making fun about the a4 of the PVV. Other remarkable thing may be the Party for Anmials not declining the conspiracy theory Chemtrails. The campaigns havent really started yet.

The only thing that are currentylu being discussed now:
1) discussing which party, and in particular the VVD, is willing to cooperate with the PVV
2) every left party tries to present itself as alternatie to the VVD and PVV
3) small right wing parties (VNL, FvD) attacking Rutte on the Ukraine Referendum

[DavidB.]

Oh yeah, the Association Agreement with Ukraine is going to have to pass the Senate in mid-February, which will ensure more attention and can be very nasty for Rutte, especially given the fact that he has a big problem on the party's right. Truly the gift that keeps on giving for the PVV. It isn't even the Agreement in itself people care that much about, but it will doubtlessly contribute to VVD-PVV swing voters' negative impression of Rutte at a critical point of time.

[Zinneke]

The reason the SP failed in 2012 was because Roemer underperformed in the debates.

Parliamentary VVD leader Zijlstra, who is on the right of the VVD, already says that the next coalition would not be ideal. He already distanced the VVD from the PVV in the past weeks saying that cooperation between these parties is not going to happen. And he tries to frame the PVV as economically left to the SP and socially unacceptable.

The tactic of the VVD for this election seems to attract VVD-PVV supporters by saying that a vote for PVV will be wasted anyway (similar in 2012) and by distancing itself from the PVV, it can attracts D66&CDA-VVD supporters who wants a centre right coalition but are afraid that the VVD will cooperate with the PVV.

The reason the SP failed is also because PvdA employed that exact same tactic of portraying SP as a ''wasted'' vote. All the other major party candidates said a coalition with SP was impossible, including the centre left.

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D66 have betrayed their base before. Such is the nature of moderate heroes. Hence why I think after this election the PvdA will re-merge and we will be able to commence the cycle again. VVD are never going to accept responsibility for coalitions it seems, despite their obsession with the concept. Leftists will constantly be duped by demaguogues who give up principles for power. Such is politics.

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If Jessie Klaver makes the debate and doesn't come out as a Stalinist, then I'm confident he can at least attract some PvdA and SP. He might even bring in some D66 university types who like his stance on Europe and realise that Pechtold is a vote for the status quo.

Then again, I could be one of the leftists above.

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I was under the impression a lot of 50+'s swing came when Wilders announced back in 2012* that he would abandon on some pension protection promise he made in his manifesto, on TV, literally minutes after the polls closed.

*or maybe the provincials.

[DavidB.]

If Jessie Klaver makes the debate and doesn't come out as a Stalinist, then I'm confident he can at least attract some PvdA and SP. He might even bring in some D66 university types who like his stance on Europe and realise that Pechtold is a vote for the status quo.

Sure, I don't dispute Klaver can attract potential PvdA, D66 and SP voters: indeed, that's probably going to happen if he participates in the debate (if he doesn't pull a Roemer, which he may given his similar dislike for "figures over people"). But I don't think there's going to be left-wing/progressive consolidation to the extent we saw in 2012 and 2010.

I was under the impression a lot of 50+'s swing came when Wilders announced back in 2012* that he would abandon on some pension protection promise he made in his manifesto, on TV, literally minutes after the polls closed.

*or maybe the provincials.

That happened in the 2010 general election (when 50Plus didn't exist yet) and most voters have probably forgotten by now, which may be especially true for this very demographic -- low-hanging fruit, I know... But even if people don't believe his "65 = 65" (which is especially nonsensical given that 65 already isn't 65 anymore), he's been pretty consistent in his support for better elderly care and to many, he does come across as sincere on that issue. They may be ready to give him a second chance.

And yeah, quite a bunch of current 50Plus supporters come from the PVV in the first place.

[Klartext89]

Is 50plus (the Partys leadership, not the electorate) closer to the Right (anti-EU, EU-sceptical, against Islam, against mass immigration) or the Left (pro-EU, against own country and People, pro mass immigration, loving Islam)?

In other words, despite rhetoric in the election campaign, is it possible to form a government with PVV, VVD, 50plus, CU e.g.?

[Zinneke]

Is 50plus (the Partys leadership, not the electorate) closer to the Right (anti-EU, EU-sceptical, against Islam, against mass immigration) or the Left (pro-EU, against own country and People, pro mass immigration, loving Islam)?

In other words, despite rhetoric in the election campaign, is it possible to form a government with PVV, VVD, 50plus, CU e.g.?

I have not met a 50+ voter, but I imagine that a lot of them are a mix of former PVV, but also PvdA and SP, all of whom have simply given up on political structures and merely want a force that protects the direct interests of the baby boomers. Economically they are definitely what you would call old school left. But I think they remain the only party to have not ruled out governing with the PVV.

I'm not sure these parties you mention would be able to agree on a budget, which is one of the key points in coalition making. Rutte has said his first reason for ruling out the PVV as a partner is that they have an economic program similar to the SP. This is tactic similar to the UMP in France against FN, that doesn't really work at least allows them to secure their right-wing base.

In the case of the NL though we still have to remember that the VVD is fundamentally a neo-liberal party, and that they will form coalitions with parties that allow them to continue the NL's status as the good student of European fiscal policy. A coalition with PVV and 50+ probably requires abandoning that status.

And then there is the First Chamber majority.

By the way, tp put the PVV's lead into perspective, here is a graphical representation of how the parliament would look.

[Intell]

Is 50plus (the Partys leadership, not the electorate) closer to the Right (anti-EU, EU-sceptical, against Islam, against mass immigration) or the Left (pro-EU, against own country and People, pro mass immigration, loving Islam)?

In other words, despite rhetoric in the election campaign, is it possible to form a government with PVV, VVD, 50plus, CU e.g.?

[Zinneke]

Is 50plus (the Partys leadership, not the electorate) closer to the Right (anti-EU, EU-sceptical, against Islam, against mass immigration) or the Left (pro-EU, against own country and People, pro mass immigration, loving Islam)?

In other words, despite rhetoric in the election campaign, is it possible to form a government with PVV, VVD, 50plus, CU e.g.?

Yeah, well, one day he will grow out of it. Its best just to ignore the total hypocrisy of the alt-right. They will make their own bed and lay in it. I just hope they go back to being non-voters when they realise its a sham.

[DavidB.]

Is 50plus (the Partys leadership, not the electorate) closer to the Right (anti-EU, EU-sceptical, against Islam, against mass immigration) or the Left (pro-EU, against own country and People, pro mass immigration, loving Islam)?

In other words, despite rhetoric in the election campaign, is it possible to form a government with PVV, VVD, 50plus, CU e.g.?

50Plus would probably be willing to cooperate with the PVV, yes. Their leadership doesn't have any real views, just a hardon for power. They will do whatever is needed to win votes, and a coalition with the PVV may be a successful way to do so as such a government would give freebies to the elderly anyway. However, a coalition including both CU and PVV is very much impossible. The CU are very much anti-Wilders. They were opposed to the inclusion of the PVV in the Rutte-I government and their left-wing views on issues such as immigration, asylum and the environment really don't match the PVV's approach. And, of course, Mark Rutte has -- for now... -- closed the door to cooperation with the PVV too.

[JA]

Is 50plus (the Partys leadership, not the electorate) closer to the Right (anti-EU, EU-sceptical, against Islam, against mass immigration) or the Left (pro-EU, against own country and People, pro mass immigration, loving Islam)?

In other words, despite rhetoric in the election campaign, is it possible to form a government with PVV, VVD, 50plus, CU e.g.?

I have not met a 50+ voter, but I imagine that a lot of them are a mix of former PVV, but also PvdA and SP, all of whom have simply given up on political structures and merely want a force that protects the direct interests of the baby boomers. Economically they are definitely what you would call old school left. But I think they remain the only party to have not ruled out governing with the PVV.

I'm not sure these parties you mention would be able to agree on a budget, which is one of the key points in coalition making. Rutte has said his first reason for ruling out the PVV as a partner is that they have an economic program similar to the SP. This is tactic similar to the UMP in France against FN, that doesn't really work at least allows them to secure their right-wing base.

In the case of the NL though we still have to remember that the VVD is fundamentally a neo-liberal party, and that they will form coalitions with parties that allow them to continue the NL's status as the good student of European fiscal policy. A coalition with PVV and 50+ probably requires abandoning that status.

And then there is the First Chamber majority.

By the way, tp put the PVV's lead into perspective, here is a graphical representation of how the parliament would look.

What possible coalition could be formed if those were the results? It'd have to span the political spectrum quite considerably, which is potentially problematic.

[DC Al Fine]

In order of size: VVD-CDA-D66-PvdA-CU is the most discussed I think. Diverse coalition would be an understatement.

[DavidB.]

What possible coalition could be formed if those were the results? It'd have to span the political spectrum quite considerably, which is potentially problematic.

The most likely option seems to be a government -- either with a minority or a majority in parliament -- consisting of VVD, CDA, D66 together with or sustained from the outside by at least one (but likely more) of CU, PvdA, GL (CU most likely to govern, then PvdA, then GL) with additional occasional support of 50Plus and/or SGP. Such a coalition would be devoid of any political color and doubtlessly make the PVV even bigger. From a democratic perspective, it is also problematic when there is no real policy alternative to a certain coalition.

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If I was to put money on it, I would ultimately bet on VVD-CDA-D66 with back-up from the Christian parties and 50Plus to make up the majority in both houses. (that government would have 35 seats in the Senate, so would require 3 more votes to pass legislation which they could easily get from 50Plus, CU or SGP.)

(also hahaha SP's leader in the senate is called Tiny Kox haha)

What possible coalition could be formed if those were the results? It'd have to span the political spectrum quite considerably, which is potentially problematic.

The most likely option seems to be a government, either with a minority or a majority in parliament, consisting of VVD, CDA, D66 together with or sustained from the outside by at least one (but likely more) of CU, PvdA, GL (CU most likely to govern, then PvdA, then GL) with additional occasional support of 50Plus and/or SGP. Such a coalition would be devoid of any political color and doubtlessly make the PVV even bigger. From a democratic perspective, it is also problematic when there is no real policy alternative to a certain coalition.

I would argue that such a situation is significantly better to now, because all three of the "government parties" would be unmistakably, err, bourgeois; and not is as inherently awkward as the effect the grand coalition has had on PvdA (because a decline in the non-bobo centre-left has never been great for discourse).

[Intell]

PvdA-D66-VVD-CDA-CU, with support from the GL, and 50 Plus?

[DavidB.]

I would argue that such a situation is significantly better to now, because all three of the "government parties" would be unmistakably, err, bourgeois; and not is as inherently awkward as the effect the grand coalition has had on PvdA (because a decline in the non-bobo centre-left has never been great for discourse).

VVD-CDA-D66 would be pretty coherent ideologically, yes, but it becomes a different story if more parties enter the government (though CU wouldn't be an issue). I'm also not arguing the current situation is good; I prefer ideologically distinct coalition alternatives.

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PvdA-D66-VVD-CDA-CU, with support from the GL, and 50 Plus?

At a guessm PvdA aren't going to be rushing into any coalition unless they really are obligated. They are at the sort of levels where a period of recovery is needed. (and given the Netherlands; volatile electorate, they'll probably be polling at landslide levels within ten weeks of the next government being formed. Or alternatively polling below DANK and PvdD.)

I would argue that such a situation is significantly better to now, because all three of the "government parties" would be unmistakably, err, bourgeois; and not is as inherently awkward as the effect the grand coalition has had on PvdA (because a decline in the non-bobo centre-left has never been great for discourse).

VVD-CDA-D66 would be pretty much ideologically coherent, yes, but it becomes a different story if PvdA and/or GL also enter the government.

Are either of them really needed to be honest? If a government needs 76, and the basic main three borg. parties are polling around 60-65 at the moment (and this is assuming people attracted by "stability" don't rally round the flag of the "sensible parties". Considering the Christians will give you a dependable 8 or so seats, all you have to ensure is that 50Plus don't lose votes (unless they lose votes to CDA or VVD I guess) and you have a narrow, and vaguely coherent government.

[DavidB.]

Are either of them really needed to be honest? If a government needs 76, and the basic main three borg. parties are polling around 60-65 at the moment (and this is assuming people attracted by "stability" don't rally round the flag of the "sensible parties". Considering the Christians will give you a dependable 8 or so seats, all you have to ensure is that 50Plus don't lose votes (unless they lose votes to CDA or VVD I guess) and you have a narrow, and vaguely coherent government.

Well, it's very unlikely for GL to enter the government (for the PvdA not so much, since Asscher wants power and may be out as party leader if he has to be in opposition), but I'd say there is a more than 50% chance that VVD, CDA, D66, CU and 50Plus don't have a majority in parliament (they do have one in the Senate) -- and that's where the problems would start. They would never get anything close to the kind of commitment you can build a government on from the SGP (if that would be enough for a majority in the first place), and a minority government without 76> seats to sustain it would be frowned upon. I think the center-right will end up in the position where they have to cooperate with a left-wing party, not necessarily in the government but at least to sustain it from the outside.

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didn't Rutte I rely on the SGP in the senate?

[DavidB.]

didn't Rutte I rely on the SGP in the senate?

Yes, but that is a very shaky, unstable type of relationship -- at the time it also required concessions that a coalition including D66 instead of the PVV would be less likely to be comfortable with, such as maintaining the position of civil servants who do not want to perform same-sex marriages. The SGP probably isn't going to make a minority government collapse, but they will want to have real influence. Not having a majority in parliament is also (still) more problematic than not having a majority in the Senate.

To be clear, I'm not saying it's unlikely a center-right government would cooperate with the SGP and have it sustain a minority government from the outside -- that scenario is highly likely. However, talks and perhaps even some sort of formalized agreement will be necessary, which will give the government even less leeway. They cannot just take the SGP's support for granted. And the question remains whether VVD-D66-CDA-CU-50Plus-SGP will even have a majority, which I doubt.