Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[DavidB.]

How will you be voting, Sunstorm?

I'm hoping for VVD-CDA-D66-PvdA-CU led by Rutte. As many establishment parties as possible.

[SunSt0rm]

How will you be voting, Sunstorm?

I'm hoping for VVD-CDA-D66-PvdA-CU. As many establishment parties as possible.

D66 or VVD.

Although I think the current coalition was fine, I think we should avoid a complete establishment coalition (VVD-CDA-D66-PVDA-GL). I understand you want a complete establishment coalition so it is a easy target for populist parties (PVV and SP). I dont think PVDA or GL alone will prop up a centre right coalition as it would be suicidal to them. So I think either both of them would join such a coalition or none of them.  So I hope a coalition of VVD-CDA-D66-CU even with outside support of SGP is enough.

[DavidB.]

In policy terms the coalition you prefer would probably be the best option possible, and I would be reasonably happy with such an outcome -- it would probably even be an improvement over the current coalition, even though that will also depend on the VVD's relative strength. My thoughts on party politics are very ambiguous and tend to fluctuate a lot even if my principles remain the same. I don't really have that much of a negative opinion of the current government. It's really mainly immigration and the EU I'm focusing on

If Asscher doesn't resign after the inevitable massive defeat, I could see him having the chutzpah to lead the party into another coalition because "he wants to take responsibility" (i.e. he doesn't want to be unemployed). I don't see GL enter the coalition unless they become the largest party (extremely unlikely) or the largest party behind the PVV (which may be possible if left-wing consolidation takes place and the VVD implodes), in which case Klaver could become PM. In that case, the coalition becomes an absolute trainwreck and GL will receive its 2012 result in the following election.

[SunSt0rm]

In policy terms the coalition you prefer would probably be the best option possible, and I would be reasonably happy with such an outcome -- it would probably even be an improvement over the current coalition, even though that will also depend on the VVD's relative strength. My thoughts on party politics are very ambiguous and tend to fluctuate a lot even if my principles remain the same. I don't really have that much of a negative opinion of the current government. It's really mainly immigration and the EU I'm focusing on

If Asscher doesn't resign after the inevitable massive defeat, I could see him having the chutzpah to lead the party into another coalition because "he wants to take responsibility" (i.e. he doesn't want to be unemployed). I don't see GL enter the coalition unless they become the largest party (extremely unlikely) or the largest party behind the PVV (which may be possible if left-wing consolidation takes place and the VVD implodes), in which case Klaver could become PM. In that case, the coalition becomes an absolute trainwreck and GL will receive its 2012 result in the following election.

I doubt Asscher will resign or be fired by his party after the election unless Aboutaleb wants to become leader (which I dont think will happen immediately after the election). He can always blame the loss on Samsom. I already have the feeling that the PvdA has accepted a heavy loss like the CDA did in 2012.

[parochial boy]

Does the Netherlands generally experience the phenomenon of "swing back" to the incumbent party in the run up to the election, as voters end up picking the "safe choice"?

Could that not explain some of PVV's recent drop? It would seem to tie up with what happened to the SP last time

[SunSt0rm]

Does the Netherlands generally experience the phenomenon of "swing back" to the incumbent party in the run up to the election, as voters end up picking the "safe choice"?

Could that not explain some of PVV's recent drop? It would seem to tie up with what happened to the SP last time

Yes a bit different, its called the Prime minister bonus, where the biggest party is profiting from having the prime minister. In most cases its the junior party that suffers the consequences of the government. In most elections, there is two-way races between the PvdA and VVD or CDA, which sucks the voters of smaller parties.

The case of the SP in 2012 was the dreadful performance of Roemer in the debates that explains the fall of the SP.

[DavidB.]

Interesting: data on voting (and non-voting) behavior for all sorts of demographics for the 2012 election.

[mvd10]

The CPB released their analysis of the election manifesto's. All parties would reduce the budget surplus, VVD for instance would cut taxes by €12 billion while only cutting spending by €4.3 billion (lol fiscal conservatism). I suppose it's much easier to come to a coalition agreement when there is room for €7 billion in freebies so perhaps GroenLinks or PvdA will join VVD-CDA-D66. It's probably really tempting to join a coalition which is going to give away billions of freebies.

If anyone wants to see the results I can post them (or you can look them up yourselves if you speak Dutch).

I also wonder how the 25-35 group voted in the 2006 election. Anyone born between 1977 and 1987 was able to vote in 2006 and I think more than 1% voted for CDA (they got 41 seats in that election).

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Which party will splurge the most?

[mvd10]

Which party will splurge the most?

PVV, 50PLUS and the Party for the Animals didn't let the CPB analyse their manifesto's so I don't know how their proposals will affect the debt (I strongly suspect PVV and especially 50PLUS don't care about the debt at all).

PvdA, SP, GroenLinks, CDA and the Vrijzinnige Partij (some fringe party) will all splurge 10 billion euros or more, but that's before the CPB takes extra economic growth into account.


https://www.cpb.nl/sites/default/files/omnidownload/Keuzes-in-Kaart-2018-2021.pdf

Search for ''tabel 2.1 samenvattend overzicht'', the important stuff is there.

EMU-saldo is the surplus/deficit relative to the baseline (ex-ante is without extra growth, ex-post is with extra growth). BBP is GDP.
Bbp-volume is economic growth relative to the baseline
Werkloosheid is unemployment relative to the baseline
Koopkracht is purchasing power relative to the baseline, werkenden means employed people, gepensioneerden are retired people and uitkeringsgerechtigden are people living on benefits.
Laagste t.o.v. hoogste inkomens show how the purchasing power of low income people will develop relative to the wealthy
Structurele werkgelegenheid is structural employment

DENK apparently is the only party that actually increases the budget surplus. Lol.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Haha, can't wait for the Economist to endorse DENK.

[DavidB.]

Edit: Fuck this, the images don't work. Will offer them as URLs instead. Didn't do all parties, but just to give you an impression what this looks like:

http://i.imgur.com/QXa109b.jpg
D66: focusing on education and tax cuts for families, not on social security and tax cuts for businesses. Moderate effects on the short term. In the long run one of the best when it comes to increasing the total number of jobs and, perhaps surprisingly, one of the parties that will most decrease inequality.

http://i.imgur.com/nTD6P6r.jpg
GL: focusing on healthcare and tax cuts for families, not (perhaps surprisingly) on social security and tax cuts for businesses. In the short term one of the best when it comes to increasing the total number of jobs and increasing purchasing power among consumers, but employment will go up only a little bit in the long run. Economic inequality will go down by a lot.

http://i.imgur.com/uqQWRHp.jpg
SP: focusing on healthcare, social security and tax cuts for families. Number one when it comes to employment and increasing purchasing power on the short term, but in the long run the national debt will spiral out of control and employment will go down by a lot. Number one in increasing equality (because we will all be unemployed).

http://i.imgur.com/8mVkumC.jpg
The other extreme, VNL. Focus on security, defense, tax cuts for businesses, and in particular tax cuts for households. Much less spending on social security and education compared to the baseline. Positive effects on economic growth and purchasing power in the short run (though a net negative effect on the national debt compared to the baseline). More unemployment and a hell of a lot more inequality in the long run.

http://i.imgur.com/a65qQMY.jpg
VVD. Focus on tax cuts for individuals, security, and defense. No focus on tax cuts for businesses and social security. Moderate short-term effects on all aspects. In the long run the best party when it comes to the national debt and especially when it comes to increasing the total number of jobs. Inequality will go up (though not nearly as much as with VNL's plans).

Of course, given the fact that we have coalition governments and given the large number of variables at play, the question remains how valuable this exercise is.

[Zuza]

Interesting: data on voting (and non-voting) behavior for all sorts of demographics for the 2012 election.

7 % of non-Western immigrants voted for PVV? That's strange.

[DavidB.]

Interesting: data on voting (and non-voting) behavior for all sorts of demographics for the 2012 election.

7 % of non-Western immigrants voted for PVV? That's strange.

Some Surinamese Dutch vote PVV, especially those who have become middle-class and live in often declining suburbs in the commuter belts around the big cities. These people's prospensity to vote PVV is pretty similar to that of non-Surinamese Dutch in the same neighborhoods, which actually makes sense. Some Surinamese people in The Hague and Rotterdam also vote PVV. The PVV's performance with Hindustani Surinamese Dutch may be even higher than with ethnic Dutch.

[Zinneke]

Interesting: data on voting (and non-voting) behavior for all sorts of demographics for the 2012 election.

7 % of non-Western immigrants voted for PVV? That's strange.

Does the variable include Eastern Europeans? The poorer ones tend to vote for right-wing conservatives, the others liberal.

Also, David, do you know how the Molukkans vote is spread out these days?

[DavidB.]

Interesting: data on voting (and non-voting) behavior for all sorts of demographics for the 2012 election.

7 % of non-Western immigrants voted for PVV? That's strange.

Does the variable include Eastern Europeans? The poorer ones tend to vote for right-wing conservatives, the others liberal.

No, they are "westerse allochtonen". But most Eastern Europeans who live here don't have Dutch citizenship and therefore don't vote in national elections.

[DavidB.]

Also, David, do you know how the Molukkans vote is spread out these days?

It is a bit difficult to keep track on, because they are a small yet tight-knit, spread-out (with certain dissimilar municipalities all across the country harboring sizeable communities) and relatively poor community that often feels betrayed by the Netherlands, which, given our shameful history in this regard, is very understandable. Those who have intermarried probably vote relatively similar to the national average. But those who are still in the "Moluccan world" first and foremost appear not to turn out: according to a University of Amsterdam estimate, only 26% of Moluccans in Breda voted in the 2006 general election, whereas total turnout in Breda was 77%. As for voting behavior among those who do vote, I suspect many people in Moluccan communities may be inclined to vote for the PvdA (but 2006 Breda: 25% among Moluccans, only 5 points higher than average), especially those in the North (the SP may do well there too). Communities in the center of the country (Culemborg, where racial tensions between Moluccans and Moroccans were an issue a few years ago) and in working-class and lower middle-class suburbs (Capelle aan den IJssel, Krimpen aan den IJssel) may also have sizeable minorities that vote for the PVV. CDA/CU are also possibilities, since some are pretty religious Christians. SP could be an option too.

Perhaps Christian immigrants from the Middle East and Indonesia? I could also imagine Ayaan Hirsi Ali types being PVV voters these days.

Ayaan Hirsi Ali is an anomaly, truly one of a kind. People of Indonesian descent count as Western immigrants because of our colonial history (yet, weirdly, Surinamese do not). Christian immigrants from the Middle East, who often live in the East of the country, used to be a reliable CDA demographic but do start voting PVV more and more often.

[mvd10]

The PVV bleeding votes to VVD is masking the fact that VVD are also losing a lot of credibility due to a multitude of scandals and poor campaign so far, which is pushing CDA-D66 depending on the region. EDIT : the Brit beat me to it.

I think Rutte has played another blinder again by going guns blazing trying to attract the populist Right, but I really doubt Rutte will survive the coalition talks after this. A double figures net seat loss and a five party coalition with people to your left, plus the supposition that he had prior knowledge of the drugs lord being paid off. He's toast.

I don't think Rutte is toast. Despite his attempts to attract right-wing populists he still is on the left of the VVD, leftist parties probably would rather see Rutte as PM than Zijlstra or Schippers, unless one of the smaller parties want to deliver the PM. That did happen a few times in the 60s and 70s (when the ARP delivered the PM instead of the bigger KVP) but I don't think that's very likely.  And Rutte might be one of the few politicians who can keep a 5 party grand coalition together for 4 years. But if the VVD doesn't become the largest non-PVV party Rutte is toast imo.

[DavidB.]

I agree with mvd10 here and expect Rutte to hold on to power unless another party becomes the largest non-PVV party, in which case we're really the laughing stock of Europe -- hello PM Klaver! According to the latest Kantar poll, 49% still think Rutte is trustworthy (down from 58% in January). Not 49% of VVD voters, but 49% of all voters. Incredible, but true. I expect the VVD to pull it off once again and get over 30 seats, probably about what they got in 2010.

[DavidB.]

Today's Ipsos poll partly confirms my suspicion that the I&O one was a junk poll or at least an outlier. Kantar's previous poll with the PVV at 35 was probably an outlier too (though 35 could have been within the margin of error). I&O structurally underpoll the right significantly compared to the other pollsters, which is pretty unbelievable since most voter movements take place within certain subsets of parties. VVD-CDA-PVV aren't suddenly going to receive only 60 seats. This Ipsos poll seems pretty credible to me (though SGP at 5, wut).

AP = other parties: 1 DENK, 1 FVD (which means Kantar, I&O, Peil and Ipsos all have them at 1).

[Zinneke]

The PVV bleeding votes to VVD is masking the fact that VVD are also losing a lot of credibility due to a multitude of scandals and poor campaign so far, which is pushing CDA-D66 depending on the region. EDIT : the Brit beat me to it.

I think Rutte has played another blinder again by going guns blazing trying to attract the populist Right, but I really doubt Rutte will survive the coalition talks after this. A double figures net seat loss and a five party coalition with people to your left, plus the supposition that he had prior knowledge of the drugs lord being paid off. He's toast.

I don't think Rutte is toast. Despite his attempts to attract right-wing populists he still is on the left of the VVD, leftist parties probably would rather see Rutte as PM than Zijlstra or Schippers, unless one of the smaller parties want to deliver the PM. That did happen a few times in the 60s and 70s (when the ARP delivered the PM instead of the bigger KVP) but I don't think that's very likely.  And Rutte might be one of the few politicians who can keep a 5 party grand coalition together for 4 years. But if the VVD doesn't become the largest non-PVV party Rutte is toast imo.

Yes, sound arguments but I'm still not so sure any of the other left-wing parties would want to associate themselves with Rutte after PvdA's experience. For example, I think the way GL can ''get away'' with an alliance with VVD with their electorate is by making Rutte a sacrificial lamb, because he is now undoubtedly the leading figure of right-wing politics. Sometimes gunning down one of the enemy's big hitters is enough for our electorate, unfortunately.

Also, addressing the PM question, if we are headed for a 5 party coalition I think the CDA would be ideally placed, no? Bruma is a bit of a wet flannel who lacks Rutte's leadership skills, but as I said above I can't imagine a situation where GL or even PvdA let VVD cling on to the premiership. If PVV win a plurality then the ''rule'' that the most votes gets to be PM goes out of the window.  

I agree with mvd10 here and expect Rutte to hold on to power unless another party becomes the largest non-PVV party, in which case we're really the laughing stock of Europe -- hello PM Klaver! According to the latest Kantar poll, 49% still think Rutte is trustworthy (down from 58% in January). Not 49% of VVD voters, but 49% of all voters. Incredible, but true. I expect the VVD to pull it off once again and get over 30 seats, probably about what they got in 2010.

Is that not linked to the fact that Rutte has shown undoubtedly good leadership of both his party, his coalition and in some cases, admittedly, his country? What is mean is, trustworthiness for some people is a safe pair of hands rather than not being guilty of quasi-criminality?

[DavidB.]

Fair point as for your response to me. An interesting observation that Buma would be well-placed to become PM. He would certainly be more acceptable to GL than Rutte. In that case, Pechtold would be an option too (G-d no G-d no G-d no, I'd even prefer Flawless Beautiful Jesse because at least that would be hilarious). These are definitely scenarios within the realm of possibility. But I still think it is more likely that Rutte stays on. His position within the VVD is and will remain extremely strong, and it is easier to find a replacement for GL than for the VVD.

Interesting times!

[SunSt0rm]

I dont see any reason why Rutte has to be replaced if the VVD is going to be the biggest non-PVV party. Rutte strenght is that he is flexible and can built several coalitions if needed, which will be needed for the next formation. Rutte is still popular despite some scandals, the only one that has the same favorable ratings is Pechtold (D66). Removing Rutte will push the VVD more to the right with Zijlstra.

[Zuza]

Interesting: data on voting (and non-voting) behavior for all sorts of demographics for the 2012 election.

7 % of non-Western immigrants voted for PVV? That's strange.

Some Surinamese Dutch vote PVV, especially those who have become middle-class and live in often declining suburbs in the commuter belts around the big cities. These people's prospensity to vote PVV is pretty similar to that of non-Surinamese Dutch in the same neighborhoods, which actually makes sense. Some Surinamese people in The Hague and Rotterdam also vote PVV. The PVV's performance with Hindustani Surinamese Dutch may be even higher than with ethnic Dutch.

Still, 7 % is surprisingly high, considering that among non-immigrants 8 % voted PVV, basically the same percentage.

[SunSt0rm]

Ethobarometer got different numbers. i think its difficult to measure the vote of people with migrant background as the numbers of voters are very small and before the creation of Denk there was no need to measure their vote