Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[mvd10]

I think such a coalition would just agree to block progressive legislation on issues like abortion and euthanasia for 4 years without rolling anything back. D66 would get its way with massive investments in education and a green tax shift (I don't think there are many climate change deniers in the SGP but I'm not sure). On the other areas the parties would easily come to an agreement. But atm this coalition doesn't have a majority in the polls so it's just speculation.

[mgop]

They don't have a majority in the senate though. D66 obviously isn't going to work with them just like the left-wing parties and I think the SJW-wing in CU is too big for CU to work with the PVV. That leaves only 50PLUS, and I think they would rather just sit at the sidelines than compromise and actually achieve anything

How does CU who is pro-life have a SJW-wing?

[mvd10]

They don't have a majority in the senate though. D66 obviously isn't going to work with them just like the left-wing parties and I think the SJW-wing in CU is too big for CU to work with the PVV. That leaves only 50PLUS, and I think they would rather just sit at the sidelines than compromise and actually achieve anything

How does CU who is pro-life have a SJW-wing?

The Christian hipsters. Socially conservative, but fairly left-wing on issues like climate change, economics and refugees. SJW probably isn't the right word for it, but those people don't want to work with the PVV.

[DavidB.]

An interesting interview with Sybrand Buma in Vrij Nederland for those who understand Dutch.

[mgop]

They don't have a majority in the senate though. D66 obviously isn't going to work with them just like the left-wing parties and I think the SJW-wing in CU is too big for CU to work with the PVV. That leaves only 50PLUS, and I think they would rather just sit at the sidelines than compromise and actually achieve anything

How does CU who is pro-life have a SJW-wing?

The Christian hipsters. Socially conservative, but fairly left-wing on issues like climate change, economics and refugees. SJW probably isn't the right word for it, but those people don't want to work with the PVV.

Oh too bad, i was thinking that they are maybe the best party and that they can work with PVV. Socially conservative and left wing economics sounds good, but climate change and refugees are probably the reason they are small party.

[Zinneke]

They don't have a majority in the senate though. D66 obviously isn't going to work with them just like the left-wing parties and I think the SJW-wing in CU is too big for CU to work with the PVV. That leaves only 50PLUS, and I think they would rather just sit at the sidelines than compromise and actually achieve anything

How does CU who is pro-life have a SJW-wing?

Ask themselves what would Jesus do I imagine.

An interesting interview with Sybrand Buma in Vrij Nederland for those who understand Dutch.

Does he know people from Leuwaarden do not consider themselves Fryske?

 

Also, complaining about Rutte saying no more cents do the Greeks when the CDA actually voted against the bailout for purely populistic reasons (when we know they would have voted for in government.

CDA are the kind of party that talk a lot but never say anything remotely worthwile, thankfully the Tsjeven on both sides of the border will peter out soon.

[Zinneke]

They don't have a majority in the senate though. D66 obviously isn't going to work with them just like the left-wing parties and I think the SJW-wing in CU is too big for CU to work with the PVV. That leaves only 50PLUS, and I think they would rather just sit at the sidelines than compromise and actually achieve anything

How does CU who is pro-life have a SJW-wing?

The Christian hipsters. Socially conservative, but fairly left-wing on issues like climate change, economics and refugees. SJW probably isn't the right word for it, but those people don't want to work with the PVV.

Oh too bad, i was thinking that they are maybe the best party and that they can work with PVV. Socially conservative and left wing economics sounds good, but climate change and refugees are probably the reason they are small party.

Beter zwijgen als ge niets over weet

[mvd10]

An interesting interview with Sybrand Buma in Vrij Nederland for those who understand Dutch.

Yeah, I think Buma might surprise us this election. He is running against the ''endless individualism'' of the VVD. Buma reminds me of Theresa May. They both are centrist on economics while also being authoritorian, and they both despise the libertarian right (think Cameron/Osborne and the VVD). And I think the message of Buma and May is much more popular than the message of the libertarian right (even though I prefer Rutte and Cameron over Buma and May).

With libertarian right I don't mean actual libertarians, I mean the socially liberal fiscally conservative™ pro-globalism live and let live right-wingers (like me lol).

[SunSt0rm]

Buma is surging!

De Hond
PVV 25 (-4)
VVD 24 (-1)
CDA 21 (+3)
GL 17 (-1)
D66 17 (+3)
SP 13 (+2)
PvdA 10 (-2)
CU 5 (=)
PvvD 5 (+1)
50+ 5 (-1)
SGP 3 (=)
Denk 2 (=)
FvD 2 (=)
VNL 1 (=)

Trend: CDA & D66 gaining, PVV, 50+ losing

[Dutch Conservative]

An interesting interview with Sybrand Buma in Vrij Nederland for those who understand Dutch.

I've read the interview. I still believe there is a world to win for CDA. When it stays on a center-right course, tough on immigration, a touch of cultural nationalism, etc. they could become the largest party.
I see 2 problems (and both brought me to NOT vote for the CDA).
1. Buma is an intelligent, somewhat sympathetic leader, but not an effective politician. In the interview you can read the kind of halfhearted language he always uses. For instance: 'yes, i think our culture has some advantages, but i wouldn't presume to say our culture is better'. What kind of message is that? Who understands where Buma realy stands. He never makes real choices.
2. The CDA is considered by many to be an unreliable party. I can see that in my family, many of who voted CDA in the past (including myself). But you can just never know what you are voting for. So the voters vote for a more pure direction: CU or SGP when they care abou christian values / VVD or PVV when they care about immigration.

I don't really buy into this Buma-surging narrative. There are still two more weeks to go and some important debates. I really doubt the PVV's numbers are falling significantly.

[DavidB.]

Didn't expect a Peil poll today... According to De Hond, PVV voters are crossing over to CDA, doubtlessly due to Buma's strong debate performance last Sunday. Real smart for Greet not to be there. He may take another hit on Sunday, when Rutte and Buma will be present at the Carré debate whereas Wilders will be sipping wine on the couch

Yeah, I think Buma might surprise us this election. He is running against the ''endless individualism'' of the VVD. Buma reminds me of Theresa May. They both are centrist on economics while also being authoritorian, and they both despise the libertarian right (think Cameron/Osborne and the VVD). And I think the message of Buma and May is much more popular than the message of the libertarian right (even though I prefer Rutte and Cameron over Buma and May).

I wholly agree and think Rutte should prepare himself for a tough debate with Buma on Sunday. The VVD may be able to counter a CDA ad with cynical remarks in the category "haha Rutte MP and u ain't", but Rutte won't get away with that in a debate. It was smart for the VVD to change the messaging after the Provincial election in 2015. Rutte coming across as more of a communitarian can also be nicely tied to him being the most "Prime Ministeriable" leader. He was strong and convincing when talking about what Christmas means to him (not to me personally, since Christmas doesn't mean anything to me and I've long stopped believing him, but in a more general sense), and this year's slogan "passing on freedom" is both more inspiring and more fitting to the times we live in than 2012's economic slogans in the category of "no handouts, but rolling up your sleeves" ("handen uit de mouwen in plaats van hand ophouden"). It will be interesting to see if Rutte can show that side of his in a debate with Buma and not retreat to economic messaging in the category of "we pulled the Netherlands out of the crisis" only -- if he does that, Buma may have a field day. I still think that while Rutte and the VVD's optimism is in some ways inspiring to voters, it is horribly out of sync with the way a lot of potential VVD voters feel right now. If he does not come across as someone who understands that (and why) people are worried and Buma does, he has a problem. But one should never underestimate a VVD campaign. Rutte is still an extremely strong debater and a convincing campaigner.

[DavidB.]

I've read the interview. I still believe there is a world to win for CDA. When it stays on a center-right course, tough on immigration, a touch of cultural nationalism, etc. they could become the largest party.
I see 2 problems (and both brought me to NOT vote for the CDA).
1. Buma is an intelligent, somewhat sympathetic leader, but not an effective politician. In the interview you can read the kind of halfhearted language he always uses. For instance: 'yes, i think our culture has some advantages, but i wouldn't presume to say our culture is better'. What kind of message is that? Who understands where Buma realy stands. He never makes real choices.
2. The CDA is considered by many to be an unreliable party. I can see that in my family, many of who voted CDA in the past (including myself). But you can just never know what you are voting for. So the voters vote for a more pure direction: CU or SGP when they care abou christian values / VVD or PVV when they care about immigration.

I don't really buy into this Buma-surging narrative. There are still two more weeks to go and some important debates. I really doubt the PVV's numbers are falling significantly.

Of course I wholly agree with you on a personal level. If the CDA had done their job properly the PVV would not even be needed, and while I would absolutely vote for a culturally nationalist CDA that's euroskeptical and tough on immigration, the party just isn't there and likely won't ever get there. Unfortunately, that's just not what Christian Democracy in Western Europe is... But it is important to note that most generic right-wing voters in the Netherlands are not like us. I do think Buma has a better understanding of the reasons why people are worried than Rutte, and I also think he has the capability of conveying that. While Buma is intrinsically less likeable than Rutte, he also comes across as an honest man -- quite the opposite of Mark Rutte with his 1000 euros, no money to the Greeks etc., and voters haven't forgotten about that. This Sunday's debate will be important for the electoral battle on the right.

[DavidB.]

Watch this:


This has the potential to be BIG.

Of course a Rutte-Buma two-horse race with D66-VVD swing voters ending up voting for Rutte and PVV-CDA swing voters ending up voting for Buma would be nuts since CDA and VVD will both be in the next government, but these voters on the right may not mind. In fact, they probably want both to be in the coalition.

That said, caution is needed here. Many PVV voters may prefer Buma to Rutte yet will still not be willing to vote for him.

[MAINEiac4434]

Watch this:


This has the potential to be BIG.

Of course a Rutte-Buma two-horse race with D66-VVD swing voters ending up voting for Rutte and PVV-CDA swing voters ending up voting for Buma would be nuts since CDA and VVD will both be in the next government, but these voters on the right may not mind. In fact, they probably want both to be in the coalition.

That said, caution is needed here. Many PVV voters may prefer Buma to Rutte yet will still not be willing to vote for him.

And check that D66 number for Rutte.

[mvd10]

I don't think a VVD-CDA horse-race would lead to much tactical voting. Rutte and Buma aren't that much different and pretty much everyone knows the next coalition will likely include both VVD and CDA. In 2012 you had a clear horse-race between a left-wing party (PvdA) and a right-wing party (VVD), I don't think many left-wing voters are going to vote for a centre-right politician to prevent the other centre-right politician from becoming PM.

[DavidB.]

I don't think a VVD-CDA horse-race would lead to much tactical voting. Rutte and Buma aren't that much different and pretty much everyone knows the next coalition will likely include both VVD and CDA. In 2012 you had a clear horse-race between a left-wing party (PvdA) and a right-wing party (VVD), I don't think many left-wing voters are going to vote for a centre-right politician to prevent the other centre-right politician from becoming PM.

There would be less tactical voting than in 2012, and obviously no left-winger is going to vote for either party in such a two-horse race, but there are a lot of generic right-wingers who voted for Balkenende in the 2000s and for Rutte in the 2010s (particularly thinking of the South right now) -- a lot of them may still switch. Buma has that Balkenende thing. Stability and communitarianism in unstable times. In addition to the direct VVD-CDA battle, some D66-VVD swing voters would vote for the VVD whereas D66 is their "political home" (as our poster from Maine rightly alluded to). Most D66 voters who sympathize with Rutte more than with Buma would not switch, but still. And some PVV-CDA swing voters would vote for the CDA whereas the PVV is their "political home"; most PVV voters who sympathize with Buma more than with Rutte would not switch, but still. Also remember that suburbans and southerners are the most swingy demographics.

I still think a VVD-CDA two-horse race is more likely not to happen than to happen, and I still think Rutte is much more likely to remain PM than for Buma to become PM. But it is not impossible anymore.

[freek]

This is a nice article: 10 images that show for every party the geographical distribution of votes since 1946, based on current municipalities:

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2017/02/28/het-veranderende-politieke-landschap-in-tien-gifjes-a1547907

[DavidB.]

Love it, thanks for sharing!

[jeron]

Watch this:


This has the potential to be BIG.

Of course a Rutte-Buma two-horse race with D66-VVD swing voters ending up voting for Rutte and PVV-CDA swing voters ending up voting for Buma would be nuts since CDA and VVD will both be in the next government, but these voters on the right may not mind. In fact, they probably want both to be in the coalition.

That said, caution is needed here. Many PVV voters may prefer Buma to Rutte yet will still not be willing to vote for him.

And check that D66 number for Rutte.

That's hardly a surprise since D66 and VVD are both liberal parties

[DavidB.]

Just drove on the A4 highway to Amsterdam (speed limit 130 km/h, which could be considered VVD campaign material in itself...) and saw two HUGE billboards with slogans I hadn't seen before. Not surprisingly by the two richest parties out there, VVD and SP.

The SP have a large billboard near The Hague with the text STAYING HOME = SUPPORTING RUTTE #takethepower (Dutch: NIET STEMMEN = RUTTE STEUNEN #pakdemacht), obviously aimed at those who are disillusioned with both Rutte and politics in general and inclined to stay home altogether. While an SP campaign aimed at this demographic seems sensible to me, I wonder whether this location will be effective.


The VVD have a yuge white billboard near Schiphol Airport with three options: "kopvodden", a disparaging term for headscarves invented by and associated with Geert Wilders*, "kop in 't zand", a reference to people (implication: on the left) sticking their heads in the sand when it comes to Islam, and "kop gebruiken", which is a folksy expression (ding ding ding, populist points) to refer to people who use their brains -- the latter, of course, being the VVD's preferred option. The VVD seek to present themselves as the only reasonable party when it comes to issues regarding Islam, as opposed to the left sticking their heads into the sand and the PVV using disrespectful terms, both without using their heads. Again a smart strategy: nobody wants to stick their head into the sand, and nobody wants to be perceived as not using their head. Most Dutch have a negative opinion of Islam yet think Wilders goes too far. The location is also spot on: I'd bet motorists passing the industrial zone of Schiphol Airport close to the white flight, (lower) middle class suburb of Haarlemmermeer (2012: 39.7% VVD) are much more inclined to a) be VVD-PVV swing voters and b) vote VVD than the average Dutch voter. I still find the rather populist slogan "Normaal. Doen." to be extremely cringeworthy, but it probably works. The VVD are the number 1 party when it comes to branding.

(same billboard, different location, seems much smaller than the one I saw)

*I may be getting ahead of myself here and understand if people would not take it this way, but I cannot help but note that while "kopvodden" is not the VVD's preferred option and they would never say the word themselves or even think approvingly of doing so, they do use the word here, and it does invoke subconscious negative associations with headscarves/Islam as much as it invokes negative associations with "extreme" Geert Wilders -- it is in the eye of the beholder. Just like "Normaal. Doen." isn't necessarily a dogwhistle, I think the VVD may be the one party that, in Robot Rubio language, know exactly what they're doing here.

[Angel of Death]

The phrase "Kopvodden." on that billboard is not between quotes, meaning that one can no less easily interpret the message as opposition to headscarves rather than the term itself. It seems that, when it comes to the VVD campaign, any supposedly anti-PVV sloganeering always has to be ambiguous.

[DavidB.]

Good point regarding the quotation marks, I simply used them to indicate these are Dutch terms. All this goes to show that while the VVD is always quick to distance itself from such terminology, it is apparently not off-limits for campaigning purposes. Fairly logical after all: they have to attack Wilders while attracting his voters. Any campaign that would be seen as too much opposed to both the PVV and their message would not be convincing to any potential PVV voter.

[mvd10]

I'm still not completely convinced by the VVD campaign. Their 2010 campaign was great. Other parties ran very person-based campaigns (Cohen and Balkenende were featured on all PvdA and CDA posters) while the VVD ran a campaign on the issues. None of the VVD posters featured Rutte. Rutte even said that who would become PM was interesting, but not very important, which led to speculation about Neelie Kroes becoming PM instead of Rutte. Part of it probably had to do with the VVD being used to being the eternal third party and never having a chance to deliver the PM (you're not going to run a person-based campaign if you won't become PM) but their issue-based campaign was a factor in their success imo.

[Tender Branson]

Looks like the Netherlands is another country where dictator Erdogan is not welcome to campaign for his power-grabbing referendum.

This follows a ban in several German cities, who do not want any Turks campaigning there and Kurz (ÖVP) and Pilz's (Greens) comments here that Erdogan shouldn't engage in a "5th Column" campaign by taking his dictatorial crap into other countries.

[mvd10]

I wonder how DENK will react. They probably will attack the government for it. It will make DENK even more hated, but it doesn't matter since 98% of the people won't vote DENK no matter what. The people who might vote DENK probably completely agree with Erdogan.