Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[ApatheticAustrian]

may i ask what's the special thing about SGP...hardcore religious "nuts" in the kind of the israeli religious parties?

[Zanas]

Even without the recent unfortunate Turkish events, I would have predicted that the PVV was being underpolled because, come on, that's just the period we live in, isn't it? The most awful candidates and ideas tend to do well on election day compared to polling these days. Or maybe it's just a cognitive bias? I don't think it is.

So with the recent unfortunate Turkish events, I'm going to say the PVV will get even more of an election day boost and end up in first place with close to, if not, 30 seats. SP will lose a couple of their 15 seats, and GL won't be anywhere near 20 seats, more like 12. The rest I have no idea and frankly don't care.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i totally agree and understand the "evil right-wing populists are underpolled all the time"-narrative but after brexit and trump the honesty should rise, imho and wilders is not really an outsider anymore, more like a strange uncle of establishment, imho.

and the fall of wilders' party ..which led for a long time...has real, logical reasons, which could be explained.

[Tender Branson]

I guess, as we have seen in Austria, people tend to be more careful voting for the far-right populist parties after the Trump victory because they don't want a disaster like Trump in their countries and fear for the reputation of their countries.

On the other hand, the Turkish agitation obviously mobilizes the PVV.

I guess it will be a wash and the PVV will end up close to what polling shows, maybe slightly higher or slightly lower ...

[MAINEiac4434]

may i ask what's the special thing about SGP...hardcore religious "nuts" in the kind of the israeli religious parties?

Borderline theocrats. Didn't allow women into leadership rolls for a long, long time.

[DavidB.]

may i ask what's the special thing about SGP...hardcore religious "nuts" in the kind of the israeli religious parties?

They are officially theocrats and don't have women on their list. In Israel the religious parties have always governed, both with the right and with the left. The SGP never did that and could support a government from the outside, but will not enter one.

[DavidB.]

The debate between Rutte and Wilders was great. I think Wilders had the upper hand but am obviously extremely biased.

[Zinneke]

may i ask what's the special thing about SGP...hardcore religious "nuts" in the kind of the israeli religious parties?

Borderline theocrats. Didn't allow women into leadership rolls for a long, long time.

Look up Urk as (an albeit extreme) version of what their base looks like.

[mvd10]

The SGP didn't include repealing gay marriage and reinstating the death penalty in their platform, which was seen as a sign that they would like to have a more prominent role (most likely giving outside support to a minority coalition). And the SGP also worked with a VVD-PvdA coalition on some issues so I think they could agree to give outside support to a VVD-CDA-D66-CU coalition as long as progressive legislation on abortion and euthanasia will be blocked (if the CDA and CU haven't already demanded that).

I also think Wilders had the upper hand, but it wasn't a big victory for Wilders imo.

[DavidB.]

Yeah, outside support wouldn't be a problem, but outright government participation is not going to happen. Agree on the debate, certainly no big win. Rutte hurt Wilders most by going on about his Qur'an ban proposal. Excellent example of how Wilders shot himself in the foot by moving too far to the right. I'm not convinced yet and will likely be undecided until election day, but expect myself to end up voting for FvD.

[freek]

The SGP didn't include repealing gay marriage and reinstating the death penalty in their platform, which was seen as a sign that they would like to have a more prominent role (most likely giving outside support to a minority coalition). And the SGP also worked with a VVD-PvdA coalition on some issues so I think they could agree to give outside support to a VVD-CDA-D66-CU coalition as long as progressive legislation on abortion and euthanasia will be blocked (if the CDA and CU haven't already demanded that).

Yes. Also on their list of demands will be some kind of income tax reform (the current system disadvantages families with a single income), and something that would help farmers and fishermen. Subsidies, or less bureaucracy

[Zinneke]

I'm wondering how long the Dutch posters here give the potential coalition above, given that the VVD-PvdA government is the first one to see out its term fully since the Wim Kok years, right?

[freek]

I'm wondering how long the Dutch posters here give the potential coalition above, given that the VVD-PvdA government is the first one to see out its term fully since the Wim Kok years, right?

Yes, the first since 1998 (or 2002, the coalition resigned a few weeks before the elections).

I don't really see how a coalition with both VVD and GL, or both CU and D66 might survive, unless the coalition agreement allows parties to opt out sometimes. 

[DavidB.]

I'm going to be cautious, because a lot of people thought the VVD-PvdA government would collapse soon too. The more interesting and imminent question is how long the government formation will take. Will we have a government before the German general election takes place?

[SunSt0rm]

I dont think many expect the current coalition make it through it, so who knows. I think it depends which coalition will be formed. If its VVD+CDA+D66+CU with outside support of SGP, i think such a coalition can be stable as the social issues will be discussed and agreed beforehand. A coalition with PvdA or GL will be more unstable. 2019 will be a year to watch for any coalition as the senete is elected again.

[DavidB.]

[Dutch Conservative]

My prediction (not yet my final one):

VVD  25
PVV  28
CDA  24
D66  15
GL    15
PvdA 9
SP    13
CU     5
SGP   4
50+   5
PvdD  3
DENK 2
FvD   2

I think the PVV might surge, because Turkey is dominating the campaign in these last days. I think Erdogan will further escalate the situation and Wilders will benefit from that. Tonight Wilders succesfully framed Rutte as unreliable (athough it was a good performance for Rutte). And my guess is the PVV is structurally underpolled.
I further predict that the PvdA will not reach 10 seats.
I have no idea of D66 or GL will become larger, but I do think Buma is a good campaigner and will become the third largest party.
FvD will certainly get some seats, it might even be more than 2. I know many people who are considering voting for Baudet.

The changes in these last days might be large, because many people are still not certain what to vote (GfK says 4 in 10, I&O says 7 in 10).

[rob in cal]

  Wonder if Erdogan is hoping for the PVV to surge at the end and do well, as this would fit his narrative of the Dutch, German and Austrian axis of fascism.

[DavidB.]

For people who want to predict even more I'm going to have this list up. Going to fill it out myself tomorrow evening:

(1 point):
Largest party:
Largest in Amsterdam:
Largest in Utrecht (city):
Largest in Rotterdam:
Largest in Den Haag:

(2 points):
Largest in Limburg:
Largest in Zuid-Holland:
Largest in Noord-Holland:
Largest in Flevoland:
Largest in Zeeland:
Largest in Overijssel:
Largest in Friesland:
Largest in Groningen:
Largest in Drenthe:
Largest in Noord-Brabant:
Largest in Utrecht (province):
Largest in Gelderland:

(3 points):
PVV over or under 15.5% (2010 result)?
Predict the order of the following parties correctly: CDA, D66, GL?
PVV over or under 30% in the municipality of Nissewaard?
Best VVD municipality?
Best CDA municipality?
Best PVV municipality?
Best GL municipality?
Best D66 municipality?
PvdA over or under 16% in Amsterdam?
PVV over or under 24% in Rotterdam?
PvdA over or under 10% in The Hague?
Predict the order of the following parties in The Hague correctly: VVD, D66, PVV.
PVV over or under 25% in Limburg?
Margin between VVD and PVV in Flevoland smaller or larger than 2 points?
DENK over or under 7% in The Hague?

(4 points)
Best FvD municipality?
Best DENK municipality?
Best VNL municipality?
Which of DENK, FvD, PP and VNL get in? (only points if all correct)

[freek]

That link doesn't seem towork. Hopefully this does:

 

[DavidB.]

@Freek: Hmmm, for me it still works. Weird. But thanks for putting it up again.

The percentage of supporters by party that are sure to vote (91%-100%). The Volkskrant article says that there are a lot of young, lower educated PVV supporters who may not turn out.

[freek]

@Freek: Hmmm, for me it still works. Weird. But thanks for putting it up again.

The percentage of supporters by party that are sure to vote (91%-100%). The Volkskrant article says that there are a lot of young, lower educated PVV supporters who may not turn out.

Most surprisingly for me is the relatively low score for ChristenUnie.

[jeron]

The debate between Rutte and Wilders was great. I think Wilders had the upper hand but am obviously extremely biased.

Obviously. I haven't seen the debate myself, but everyone I talked to thought Rutte had the upper hand.

[SunSt0rm]

The debate between Rutte and Wilders was great. I think Wilders had the upper hand but am obviously extremely biased.

Obviously. I haven't seen the debate myself, but everyone I talked to thought Rutte had the upper hand.

I also thought it was Rutte who had the upper hand as well

[DavidB.]

And, in turn, I wouldn't expect anything different of D66/VVD voters Here's to hoping both Rutte and Wilders did well in consolidating their base. I'd like to see a large VVD in government and a large PVV outside of it. But I'm voting Forum.