Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Classic Conservative]

When should results come in?

Polls close at 9 and there will be an exit poll at 9. Most of the vote will come in after 10:30/11.

EDT/CDT ?

It will be 5:00 Eastern, I think. 9 GMT

[DavidB.]

9 Dutch time, not 9 GMT. No idea what all these other abbreviations are.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The Netherlands is on CET, not GMT. So polls close at 8PM GMT, if I understand correctly.

[DavidB.]

Who was supposed to do better in the darker blue areas?

They vote close to the national average, so when these municipalities come in the patterns there will provide useful information on the distribution of the vote across the board.

[SunSt0rm]

Turnout in Rotterdam is going up like a rocket, 48.2% now. Big spike in turnout between 16 and 17. Migrant areas stay behind. Potentially good news for the PVV.

Are you sure? I see the south of Rotterdam is lacking in turnout, which I just checked the base of the PVV. It is a polarized area where the whites vote for the PVV and migrants voted for PvdA but this time for Denk.

http://maps.nrc.nl/ps2015/ps2015sb-100pct.php

[mvd10]

Prediction
(1 point):
Largest party: VVD
Largest in Amsterdam: D66
Largest in Utrecht (city): GroenLinks
Largest in Rotterdam: PVV
Largest in Den Haag: VVD

(2 points):
Largest in Limburg: PVV
Largest in Zuid-Holland: VVD
Largest in Noord-Holland: VVD
Largest in Flevoland: VVD
Largest in Zeeland: CDA
Largest in Overijssel:CDA
Largest in Friesland: CDA
Largest in Groningen: SP
Largest in Drenthe: VVD
Largest in Noord-Brabant: VVD
Largest in Utrecht (province): VVD
Largest in Gelderland: VVD

(3 points):
PVV over or under 15.5% (2010 result)? Under
Predict the order of the following parties correctly: CDA, D66, GL? CDA-D66-GL
PVV over or under 30% in the municipality of Nissewaard? Slightly under
Best VVD municipality? Laren
Best CDA municipality? Tubbergen
Best PVV municipality? Kerkrade
Best GL municipality? Utrecht
Best D66 municipality? Wageningen
PvdA over or under 16% in Amsterdam? Under
PVV over or under 24% in Rotterdam? Under
PvdA over or under 10% in The Hague? Over
Predict the order of the following parties in The Hague correctly: VVD, D66, PVV. VVD-PVV-D66
PVV over or under 25% in Limburg? Under
Margin between VVD and PVV in Flevoland smaller or larger than 2 points? Smaller
DENK over or under 7% in The Hague? Under

(4 points)
Best FvD municipality? Scheveningen
Best DENK municipality? Amsterdam
Best VNL municipality? Scheveningen
Which of DENK, FvD, PP and VNL get in? FvD and DENK

[Hatman 🍁]

When should results come in?

Polls close at 9 and there will be an exit poll at 9. Most of the vote will come in after 10:30/11.

EDT/CDT ?

Life hack: Try googling "What time is it in Amsterdam" and then do the math. There's a 5 hour difference from EDT if Google is to be believed.

[DavidB.]

Are you sure? I see the south of Rotterdam is lacking in turnout, which I just checked the base of the PVV. It is a polarized area where the whites vote for the PVV and migrants voted for PvdA but this time for Denk.

http://maps.nrc.nl/ps2015/ps2015sb-100pct.php

51% turnout now (though as I write this the numbers will go up); Charlois 39%, Delfshaven 42%, Feijenoord 47%, IJsselmonde 46%, Alexander 54%, Pernis 55%, Rozenburg 57%, HvH 60%, Hill-Sch 59%, Hoogvliet 49%, K-C 54%, Centrum 79%, Noord 48%, Hoogvliet 49%.

High turnout in Alexander, Pernis, Rozenburg, HvH should be good for the PVV. Low turnout in Charlois (true, quite some PVV voters out there too) and Delfshaven, and the higher turnout in Feijenoord may well be due to the more affluent Kop van Zuid area that will vote D66/VVD/GL rather than the more migrant-heavy neighborhoods like the Afrikaanderwijk. Don't think this is bad news for the PVV (though IJsselmonde lags behind). But obviously all this #analysis should be taken with a grain of salt.

[Tender Branson]

Peak voting has started, as we can see from the real-time Rotterdam page.

The next 2.5 hours will see the highest hourly voting figures of the day.

This hour is already heading for 30.000 votes.

The next 2 hours will likely see 35.000-38.000 votes each.

[SunSt0rm]

Some cities in the south not really turning out as others:

Eindhoven 41% roughly equal to 2010
Breda 47%, 45.5 in 2012

[Tender Branson]

Are you sure? I see the south of Rotterdam is lacking in turnout, which I just checked the base of the PVV. It is a polarized area where the whites vote for the PVV and migrants voted for PvdA but this time for Denk.

http://maps.nrc.nl/ps2015/ps2015sb-100pct.php

51% turnout now (though as I write this the numbers will go up); Charlois 39%, Delfshaven 42%, Feijenoord 47%, IJsselmonde 46%, Alexander 54%, Pernis 55%, Rozenburg 57%, HvH 60%, Hill-Sch 59%, Hoogvliet 49%, K-C 54%, Centrum 79%, Noord 48%, Hoogvliet 49%.

High turnout in Alexander, Pernis, Rozenburg, HvH should be good for the PVV. Low turnout in Charlois (true, quite some PVV voters out there too) and Delfshaven, and the higher turnout in Feijenoord may well be due to the more affluent Kop van Zuid area that will vote D66/VVD/GL rather than the more migrant-heavy neighborhoods like the Afrikaanderwijk. Don't think this is bad news for the PVV (though IJsselmonde lags behind). But obviously all this #analysis should be taken with a grain of salt.

One would expect that PVV voters are working-class and they are ... currently working. Or have worked until now. Which means these areas in the South should see a significant rise in turnout over the next 3 hours, when these people leave their workplace.

If these areas do not experience a much higher turnout in the next hours, that's bad for the PVV.

[Classic Conservative]

Joost from Breda, was supposedly undecided between PVV and SP, before the Turkish riots and then decided to vote PVV.
https://mobile.twitter.com/SebastiaanQ/status/842037713368948736

[ApatheticAustrian]

voting on work days still seems like a horrible concept for me.

[jeron]

Turnout in Groningen well over 60%. Utrecht around 60%. Enschede supposedly about 9% higher than 2012

[Tender Branson]

voting on work days still seems like a horrible concept for me.

I'm also no fan of it, but in the case of the Netherlands it works pretty well.

[SunSt0rm]

Turnout 55% at 17:45, 48% in 2012. Turnout may possibly be over 80%

[Tender Branson]

More than 30.600 have voted in Rotterdam in the last hour.

I expect another 100.000 over the next 3 hours, bringing the total to around 345.000 votes.

That would be 76% turnout (+13.5%)

MoE = +/- 2% (if voting trends continue)

[DavidB.]

Turnout 55% at 17:45, 47% in 2012. Turnout may possibly be over 80%

Gap was 6 points at 15:45 and 13:45, now up to 8 points. I'm going to vote now.

[trebor204]

The Netherlands is on CET, not GMT. So polls close at 8PM GMT, if I understand correctly.

It should be point out that:
North America had their Spring Time Change last week, Europe changes their clocks in late March.

There is normally a 6 hour time difference between the Eastern Time Zone (North America) and Central Europe. But since North America had already 'Spring Forward', there is now a 5 hour difference (for about 3 weeks) between these two time zones.

Right now: It just after 6 pm in the Netherlands, polls close in 3 hours.

[Tender Branson]

I'm going to vote now.

In which city ?

[Tender Branson]

Den Haag (6pm turnout)

57.3%

In 2012 it was 46.8% (+10.5%)

[jaichind]

Dutch Election Turnout 55% as of 5:45pm vs 48% in 2012: Ipsos
By Rudy Ruitenberg
(Bloomberg) -- Dutch election turnout a little lower than in 2006, when it was 58% at the same time, pollster Ipsos Nederland says on Twitter account.
Earlier at 3:45pm, turnout was 43% vs 37% at same time in 2012 elections
At 1:45pm, turnout was 33% vs 27% in 2012.

[jeron]

More than 30.600 have voted in Rotterdam in the last hour.

I expect another 100.000 over the next 3 hours, bringing the total to around 345.000 votes.

That would be 76% turnout (+13.5%)

MoE = +/- 2% (if voting trends continue)

Turnout at 18.00 in Rotterdam was 55.3%, which means it is on par with the 2006 election when final turnout was 70.9.

[jeron]

Groningen over 65% now and Amsterdam on 55% at 17.45

[Tender Branson]

More than 30.600 have voted in Rotterdam in the last hour.

I expect another 100.000 over the next 3 hours, bringing the total to around 345.000 votes.

That would be 76% turnout (+13.5%)

MoE = +/- 2% (if voting trends continue)

Turnout at 18.00 in Rotterdam was 55.3%, which means it is on par with the 2006 election when final turnout was 70.9.

It will be much higher than that.

74-78%.

With 76% most likely right now.

71% is only likely if there's a significant dropoff in voting over the next 3 hours ...