Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Intell]

surely disappointing if you wish for a leftish influence in politics - like i do - but this could have played out even worse and it was, kind of, the worst possible scenario for the general european left.

DENK/Wilders/party-splitting are all weakening a singular influence....surely going to be better the next time and since there are going to be, most likely, neither leftish nor crypto-culturalist fingerprints on the agenda of the next government, the time for healing is now.

No, I'm ecstatic that Wilders has been told "BTFO" by the Dutch electorate. Klaver's going to be in a golden position in the next election.

Did you support D66, and why for a party so right-wing economically?

Judging by the polls, best chance for a non-VVD, CDA or PVV largest party and Prime Minister.

Still don't understand, when it's decided by coalitions.

[MAINEiac4434]

surely disappointing if you wish for a leftish influence in politics - like i do - but this could have played out even worse and it was, kind of, the worst possible scenario for the general european left.

DENK/Wilders/party-splitting are all weakening a singular influence....surely going to be better the next time and since there are going to be, most likely, neither leftish nor crypto-culturalist fingerprints on the agenda of the next government, the time for healing is now.

No, I'm ecstatic that Wilders has been told "BTFO" by the Dutch electorate. Klaver's going to be in a golden position in the next election.

Did you support D66, and why for a party so right-wing economically?

Judging by the polls, best chance for a non-VVD, CDA or PVV largest party and Prime Minister.

Still don't understand, when it's decided by coalitions.

My thinking was the best chance for a center-left coalition was one led by D66. Maybe the GL wouldn't have wanted to work with D66, like they don't want to work with VVD. I guess we'll never know.

The D66 consistently polled above GL (though occasionally the GL leapfrogged them, but those were outliers). I figured GL, SP and PvdA would've been more willing to work with a socially progressive, albeit fiscally center-to-right party than a totally conservative party like VVD or CDA (and the PVV wasn't even a question, of course).

[adma]

Actually, has anyone speculated on the parallels btw/PvdA's result and that of the Clegg Lib Dems in 2015?

[Horus]

Looks like D66 did a bit better than expected. They're only the best party in the entire world, so that's good to see.

[mvd10]

So it's probably going to be a centre-right VVD-CDA-D66-CU government. Excellent result. D66 and CU will clash, but GL and PvdA won't join VVD-CDA-D66 if there is another viable 4 party coalition so it's probably the only option. I actually don't think a formation with those 4 parties should take very long.


VVD-PVV-CDA-SGP-FvD has a majority btw. Not going to happen but it shows that the right is fairly strong in the Netherlands.

[Vosem]

What is keeping some of these late municipalities from reporting?

[Zinneke]

Actually, has anyone speculated on the parallels btw/PvdA's result and that of the Clegg Lib Dems in 2015?

Yup, Nick Clegg himself, in an NOS interview a few months ago.

[peterthlee]

Dutch people, I'm really proud of you. You beat the polls and fended off fascism.

[Donerail]

So it's probably going to be a centre-right VVD-CDA-D66-CU government. Excellent result. D66 and CU will clash, but GL and PvdA won't join VVD-CDA-D66 if there is another viable 4 party coalition so it's probably the only option. I actually don't think a formation with those 4 parties should take very long.

What about the possibility of VVD-D66-GL-PvdA? It's difficult for me to see what motivation the CDA would have to go into coalition with Rutte. If they refuse to participate, they essentially force Rutte into purple plus and can position themselves as the main party of the right at the next election. What incentive do they have to play nice?

[jeron]

So it's probably going to be a centre-right VVD-CDA-D66-CU government. Excellent result. D66 and CU will clash, but GL and PvdA won't join VVD-CDA-D66 if there is another viable 4 party coalition so it's probably the only option. I actually don't think a formation with those 4 parties should take very long.

What about the possibility of VVD-D66-GL-PvdA? It's difficult for me to see what motivation the CDA would have to go into coalition with Rutte. If they refuse to participate, they essentially force Rutte into purple plus and can position themselves as the main party of the right at the next election. What incentive do they have to play nice?

At this point there's no majority for such a coalition. 33+19+14+9= 75. This coalition also wouldn't have a majority in the senate where it has 35 of 75 seats. That makes it very unlikely.

[Dutch Conservative]

I think this is a result many dutch can live with:
- Overall the right has a solid majority
- The left has its new heroes
- Nobody cares about the destruction of the PvdA
- PVV still second largest party and will be largest opposition party. Wilders lives to fight another day.
- A solid coalition: VVD+CDA+D66+CU is within reach and could be formed quite fast.
- the status-quo remains intact

Personally I had hoped for a better result for Wilders, but he made some serious mistakes in the campaign and the shy-voter-effect wasn't there for him. But he still wins quite some seats, it is the second best result for him ever.

I think two parties (apart from PvdA ofcourse) underperformed:
- CDA had hoped to reach the mid-twenties. Remember: Balkenende stepped down with a result of 21 seats and Buma is celebrating for 19. Much can change in ten years.
- SP should have performed way better. I think this will mean the end of Roemer.

[DavidB.]

Excellent analysis, Dutch Conservative -- don't have much to add here.

14 seats for the Jessiah is underwhelming and 42 seats for the left (SP-GL-PvdA-PvdD) should be an all-time low; the PvdA got 38 on their own last time around.

[windjammer]

I think this is a result many dutch can live with:
- Overall the right has a solid majority
- The left has its new heroes
- Nobody cares about the destruction of the PvdA
- PVV still second largest party and will be largest opposition party. Wilders lives to fight another day.
- A solid coalition: VVD+CDA+D66+CU is within reach and could be formed quite fast.
- the status-quo remains intact

Personally I had hoped for a better result for Wilders, but he made some serious mistakes in the campaign and the shy-voter-effect wasn't there for him. But he still wins quite some seats, it is the second best result for him ever.

I think two parties (apart from PvdA ofcourse) underperformed:
- CDA had hoped to reach the mid-twenties. Remember: Balkenende stepped down with a result of 21 seats and Buma is celebrating for 19. Much can change in ten years.
- SP should have performed way better. I think this will mean the end of Roemer.

Regarding your point on PVV, they blew a 40 seats result and instead got only 20. How can you say that this is a good result for them. They massively underperformed the polls.
In every country the far right is rising, with the Netherlands having partiesry with strong far right parties (Fortuin etc), the fact they massively underpolled the polls should be worrying for them.

[Zinneke]

I think this is a result many dutch can live with:
- Overall the right has a solid majority
- The left has its new heroes
- Nobody cares about the destruction of the PvdA
- PVV still second largest party and will be largest opposition party. Wilders lives to fight another day.
- A solid coalition: VVD+CDA+D66+CU is within reach and could be formed quite fast.
- the status-quo remains intact

Personally I had hoped for a better result for Wilders, but he made some serious mistakes in the campaign and the shy-voter-effect wasn't there for him. But he still wins quite some seats, it is the second best result for him ever.

I think two parties (apart from PvdA ofcourse) underperformed:
- CDA had hoped to reach the mid-twenties. Remember: Balkenende stepped down with a result of 21 seats and Buma is celebrating for 19. Much can change in ten years.
- SP should have performed way better. I think this will mean the end of Roemer.

Interesting thoughts, particularly the one about Balkende. I'm surprised though that you think the Duth Left will not come out of this feeling disappointed. PvdA have lost 28 seats, GL gained 10, D66 7. SP lost one. Does´t look good.

[FrancoAgo]

i don't understand why you all give this importance to the party that get first place in a municipality, they not win nothing getting the first place in any municipality.

With 27,1% this would be the badest result for the "left" since WW2

actually i'm not  sure that PvdA is a left party

[jeron]

I think this is a result many dutch can live with:
- Overall the right has a solid majority
- The left has its new heroes
- Nobody cares about the destruction of the PvdA
- PVV still second largest party and will be largest opposition party. Wilders lives to fight another day.
- A solid coalition: VVD+CDA+D66+CU is within reach and could be formed quite fast.
- the status-quo remains intact

Personally I had hoped for a better result for Wilders, but he made some serious mistakes in the campaign and the shy-voter-effect wasn't there for him. But he still wins quite some seats, it is the second best result for him ever.

I think two parties (apart from PvdA ofcourse) underperformed:
- CDA had hoped to reach the mid-twenties. Remember: Balkenende stepped down with a result of 21 seats and Buma is celebrating for 19. Much can change in ten years.
- SP should have performed way better. I think this will mean the end of Roemer.

CDA voters are gradually dying. Among people aged 65 and over CDA still has 20% of the vote, in all the other age groups it is about 10%. PvdA now has 9 seats and I wouldn't be at all surprised if CDA gets less than 10 seats in the next 10 to 15 years. CDA's highs are getting lower and that probably means its lows will also be lower.

CDA membership:
1980: 150.000
1990: 125.000
2000: 82.000
2017: 47.000

[jeron]

I think this is a result many dutch can live with:
- Overall the right has a solid majority
- The left has its new heroes
- Nobody cares about the destruction of the PvdA
- PVV still second largest party and will be largest opposition party. Wilders lives to fight another day.
- A solid coalition: VVD+CDA+D66+CU is within reach and could be formed quite fast.
- the status-quo remains intact

Personally I had hoped for a better result for Wilders, but he made some serious mistakes in the campaign and the shy-voter-effect wasn't there for him. But he still wins quite some seats, it is the second best result for him ever.

I think two parties (apart from PvdA ofcourse) underperformed:
- CDA had hoped to reach the mid-twenties. Remember: Balkenende stepped down with a result of 21 seats and Buma is celebrating for 19. Much can change in ten years.
- SP should have performed way better. I think this will mean the end of Roemer.

Interesting thoughts, particularly the one about Balkende. I'm surprised though that you think the Duth Left will not come out of this feeling disappointed. PvdA have lost 28 seats, GL gained 10, D66 7. SP lost one. Does´t look good.

And D66 is a progressive but not a leftist party.
PvdA voters went everywhere: PvdD gained 3, Denk gained 3, 50Plus gained 2.

[DC Al Fine]

Serious what if question here:

If in 2012 the PvdA had won 1 more seat than VVD, the PvdA leader would have become PM instead of Rutte in a "grand coalition". If that had happened, do people think the PvdA would have done much better tonight and the VVD would have been the "junior coalition partner that gets demolished in the subsequent election"?

I'd guess it would be even messier than now. There are two reasons for PvdA's destruction:
1) Being a junior partner
2) Betraying their base

Assuming VVD didn't go completely pro-migrant, the betrayal element wouldn't be there, so they wouldn't get blasted quite so much. PvdA may or may not have still had the betrayal factor depending on their governance. Take the 2017 results. Put VVD, D66 and GL down, and PvdA, CDA, and PVV up, that's approximately what I think it would look like.

[MAINEiac4434]

So it's probably going to be a centre-right VVD-CDA-D66-CU government. Excellent result. D66 and CU will clash, but GL and PvdA won't join VVD-CDA-D66 if there is another viable 4 party coalition so it's probably the only option. I actually don't think a formation with those 4 parties should take very long.

What about the possibility of VVD-D66-GL-PvdA? It's difficult for me to see what motivation the CDA would have to go into coalition with Rutte. If they refuse to participate, they essentially force Rutte into purple plus and can position themselves as the main party of the right at the next election. What incentive do they have to play nice?

As good as that sounds, PvdA want to take a step back from governing after this defeat and GroenLinks is accepting the mantle of "non-Wilders opposition."

I think this is a result many dutch can live with:
- Overall the right has a solid majority
- The left has its new heroes
- Nobody cares about the destruction of the PvdA
- PVV still second largest party and will be largest opposition party. Wilders lives to fight another day.
- A solid coalition: VVD+CDA+D66+CU is within reach and could be formed quite fast.
- the status-quo remains intact

Personally I had hoped for a better result for Wilders, but he made some serious mistakes in the campaign and the shy-voter-effect wasn't there for him. But he still wins quite some seats, it is the second best result for him ever.

I think two parties (apart from PvdA ofcourse) underperformed:
- CDA had hoped to reach the mid-twenties. Remember: Balkenende stepped down with a result of 21 seats and Buma is celebrating for 19. Much can change in ten years.
- SP should have performed way better. I think this will mean the end of Roemer.

Still can't believe they lost a seat with PvdA's total collapse. Such a missed opportunity.

[crals]

Random question: I'm aware that PVV are off-limits for them, but could CDA ever work with other right-wing populists such as the FvD?

[jaichind]

How does the PR seat allocation work? Based on what I see it seems CDA should be on target to get 18 and not 19 seats while FvD should be on target to get 3 instead of 2.

[SunSt0rm]

Only 20% of the PvdA voters of 2012 voted PvdA yesterday. 17% went to GL, 13% to D66, 11% to SP, 5% to VVD and 5% to PVV.

[FrancoAgo]

How does the PR seat allocation work? Based on what I see it seems CDA should be on target to get 18 and not 19 seats while FvD should be on target to get 3 instead of 2.

afaik total valid vote/150=Y
each list total vote/Y= full seats for list
The seats that remain are distributed by the method of largest average

[Dutch Conservative]

I think this is a result many dutch can live with:
- Overall the right has a solid majority
- The left has its new heroes
- Nobody cares about the destruction of the PvdA
- PVV still second largest party and will be largest opposition party. Wilders lives to fight another day.
- A solid coalition: VVD+CDA+D66+CU is within reach and could be formed quite fast.
- the status-quo remains intact

Personally I had hoped for a better result for Wilders, but he made some serious mistakes in the campaign and the shy-voter-effect wasn't there for him. But he still wins quite some seats, it is the second best result for him ever.

I think two parties (apart from PvdA ofcourse) underperformed:
- CDA had hoped to reach the mid-twenties. Remember: Balkenende stepped down with a result of 21 seats and Buma is celebrating for 19. Much can change in ten years.
- SP should have performed way better. I think this will mean the end of Roemer.

Regarding your point on PVV, they blew a 40 seats result and instead got only 20. How can you say that this is a good result for them. They massively underperformed the polls.
In every country the far right is rising, with the Netherlands having partiesry with strong far right parties (Fortuin etc), the fact they massively underpolled the polls should be worrying for them.

That's only true to a certain extend. Ofcourse Wilders had hoped for more (he fully admitted that). But:

- PVV never polled at 40 seats, 35 at max. Ever since december his pollnumbers started to drop. In the final weeks he polled in the low-20-seats. He didn't underperform the polls, the polls proved to be accurate. But you're right: in the perspective of the longer term he performed poorly.
- those high pollnumbers proove that his ceiling is way higher than low-20 seats. The potential PVV-voters are there, Wilders just hasnt succeeded in pursuading them. That's solely on him and his poor campaign. His base showed up, but he hasn't been able to broaden it (NOS today reports that PVV had the most loyal voters yesterday, right after the christian parties. Twothird stayed with the party).
- Don't forget the voters rewarded Rutte for his strong stance against Turkey, which could be seen as a PVV-approach. So his influence as the largest oppositionparty might be larger than as a coalition party (which never was going to happen anyway). For this rol to play it doesn't really matter if the PVV gets 20 or 30 seats.
- Despite a massive cordon sanitaire more then 1 million people voted for the PVV and he enlarged his number of seats by 1/3.

No, it's just not right to call this a bad result. But I agree: things could have been better. In my opinion he has to take his party a step further now: open it for membership, put some decent MP's together to write a realistic program, become an adult people's party. Only then he can stay relevant in the future.

[Dutch Conservative]

I think this is a result many dutch can live with:
- Overall the right has a solid majority
- The left has its new heroes
- Nobody cares about the destruction of the PvdA
- PVV still second largest party and will be largest opposition party. Wilders lives to fight another day.
- A solid coalition: VVD+CDA+D66+CU is within reach and could be formed quite fast.
- the status-quo remains intact

Personally I had hoped for a better result for Wilders, but he made some serious mistakes in the campaign and the shy-voter-effect wasn't there for him. But he still wins quite some seats, it is the second best result for him ever.

I think two parties (apart from PvdA ofcourse) underperformed:
- CDA had hoped to reach the mid-twenties. Remember: Balkenende stepped down with a result of 21 seats and Buma is celebrating for 19. Much can change in ten years.
- SP should have performed way better. I think this will mean the end of Roemer.

Interesting thoughts, particularly the one about Balkende. I'm surprised though that you think the Duth Left will not come out of this feeling disappointed. PvdA have lost 28 seats, GL gained 10, D66 7. SP lost one. Does´t look good.

Sure, but there isn't 'the left'. I regard many GroenLinks voters as liberal, the same is certainly true for D'66. The old base from the PvdA just isn't there anymore, it doesn't exist. The remnants of it can be found at SP, ofcourse they are disappointed, and PVV. But because of the total implosian of the PvdA, almost all other parties have won. A left coalition was never a realistic scenario (as it has never really been in our history).

Note: the problem for Balkenende was ofcourse he came down from 41 to 21. But that was nothing like we have seen with the PvdA yesterday. By the way: Balkenende today has become a commissionar at ING.