Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Tintrlvr]

Pct of party voters that are over 65:
PvdA: 44%
CDA: 31%
VVD: 24%
SP: 19%
GL: 18%
D66: 16%
PVV: 11%
CU/SGP: 11%

Pct of party voters that are under 35:
GL: 35%
CU/SGP: 33%
D66: 32%
VVD: 22%
PVV: 22%
CDA: 18%
SP: 16%
PvdA: 13%

Big ouch for PvdA but actually seems like worse news for CDA. PvdA got thrashed this election and reduced to its very core strongly habitual supporters, who are indeed quite old, but has the opportunity to come back. For CDA, even in an election that feels like a major victory, their vote is very old, showing that their maximum possible vote share continues to decline (though perhaps not if they turn more socially conservative and can start stealing away more votes from the very young CU and SGP).

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Prediction: this will be the last general election Wilders fights.

[Tender Branson]

Time to cross-check my prediction with reality:

Tender's FINAL prediction:

33 seats - VVD
23 seats - CDA
22 seats - PVV
16 seats - D66
14 seats - SP
14 seats - GL
10 seats - PvdA
  5 seats - CU
  4 seats - 50+
  3 seats - SGP
  3 seats - PvdD
  2 seats - Denk
  1 seats - FvD

MoE = +/- 2 seats (for those over 10 seats) and +/- 1 seat for those with less than 10 seats

33 seats - VVD [nailed it]
20 seats - PVV [overestimated by 2]
19 seats - CDA [overestimated by 4 - outside my MoE]
19 seats - D66 [underestimated by 3 - outside my MoE]
14 seats - SP [nailed it]
14 seats - GL [nailed it]
  9 seats - PvdA [overestimated by 1]
  5 seats - CU [nailed it]
  5 seats - PvdD [underestimated by 2 - outside my MoE]
  4 seats - 50+ [nailed it]
  3 seats - SGP [nailed it]
  3 seats - Denk [underestimated by 1]
  2 seats - FvD [underestimated by 1]

I missed my own MoE goal in 2 cases with parties above 10 seats (CDA, D66) and in 1 case for parties with less than 10 seats (PvdD).

If turnout would have been lower, 70-75%, I guess my prediction would have been better.

[Dutch Conservative]

Effective number of parties higher than ever:


Interesting other fact: only 51% of PVV-2017 voters voted for the PVV in 2012. Means there has been a lot of voter movement going on and that there are a lot of PVV-2012 voters who didn't vote PVV this time around.

I'm not sure if this is a correct conclusion. NOS (Ipsos) reports dat 67% of 2012 PVV-voters voted PVV again. That 67% is the 51% of their share now. So that means only 33% of the 2012 PVV-voters didnt vote for PVV in 2017. That is quite low, considering only CU, SGP and CDA have a lower percentage.

Source: http://nos.nl/artikel/2163443-pvda-gedecimeerd-waar-zijn-al-die-stemmers-gebleven.html

[Dutch Conservative]

Time to cross-check my prediction with reality:

Tender's FINAL prediction:

33 seats - VVD
23 seats - CDA
22 seats - PVV
16 seats - D66
14 seats - SP
14 seats - GL
10 seats - PvdA
  5 seats - CU
  4 seats - 50+
  3 seats - SGP
  3 seats - PvdD
  2 seats - Denk
  1 seats - FvD

MoE = +/- 2 seats (for those over 10 seats) and +/- 1 seat for those with less than 10 seats

33 seats - VVD [nailed it]
20 seats - PVV [overestimated by 2]
19 seats - CDA [overestimated by 4 - outside my MoE]
19 seats - D66 [underestimated by 3 - outside my MoE]
14 seats - SP [nailed it]
14 seats - GL [nailed it]
  9 seats - PvdA [overestimated by 1]
  5 seats - CU [nailed it]
  5 seats - PvdD [underestimated by 2 - outside my MoE]
  4 seats - 50+ [nailed it]
  3 seats - SGP [nailed it]
  3 seats - Denk [underestimated by 1]
  2 seats - FvD [underestimated by 1]

I missed my own MoE goal in 2 cases with parties above 10 seats (CDA, D66) and in 1 case for parties with less than 10 seats (PvdD).

If turnout would have been lower, 70-75%, I guess my prediction would have been better.

Final Prediction

VVD  26
PVV  26
CDA  24
D66  16
GL    14
PvdA 9
SP    14
CU     5
SGP   4
50+   5
PvdD  3
DENK 2
FvD   2

It's a huge gamble, polls are all over the place and I can't ignore what I am witnissing in my surrounding. Have a nice election day all and vote!

Pretty good TB, well done. Here's is my list (ouch). Much to learn I still have, but I knew it was a gamble. I probably also have to diversify my circle of friends.

33 seats - VVD [underestimated by 7]
20 seats - PVV [overestimated by 6]
19 seats - CDA [overestimated by 5]
19 seats - D66 [underestimated by 3]
14 seats - SP [nailed it]
14 seats - GL [nailed it]
  9 seats - PvdA [nailed it]
  5 seats - CU [nailed it]
  5 seats - PvdD [underestimated by 2]
  4 seats - 50+ [overestimated by 1, but could still end up correct]
  3 seats - SGP [overestimated by 1]
  3 seats - Denk [underestimated by 1]
  2 seats - FvD [nailed it]

[Tender Branson]

Also:

Thumbs up to the Dutch pollsters, who got almost all parties right in their pre-election polls.

Except for the VVD (which benefitted from PM Rutte's incumbency and the Dutch-Turkish fight in the final days). Stuff like this is hard to predict by pre-election polls, because many voters only decide on election day.

Also, pollsters slightly overestimated Groen-Links, but I always thought this was a bubble that would not fully materialize on election day (pollsters picked up the downward trend in the last days though. The overestimated 6 seats and higher turnout then helped Denk and PvdD.

For the PVV, the anti-Trump sentiment in Europe right now (people don't want a radical party to put shame on the country's image abroad, like Trump does) outbalanced the Turkish agitation.

And also thumbs up to the Dutch people for 80%+ turnout (hopefully we can get 80% next year too, but I doubt it with our silly opening and closing times).

[Zuza]

Pct of party voters that are over 65:
PvdA: 44%
CDA: 31%
VVD: 24%
SP: 19%
GL: 18%
D66: 16%
PVV: 11%
CU/SGP: 11%

Pct of party voters that are under 35:
GL: 35%
CU/SGP: 33%
D66: 32%
VVD: 22%
PVV: 22%
CDA: 18%
SP: 16%
PvdA: 13%

Why are CU/SGP voters so young? Only because of high birth rates in the Bible Belt? Which of these 2 parties has younger voters? SGP?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Btw.....if your explanation is based on data, it's funny that people who would leave the PdvA cause of right-wing economics would switch to D66, which also seems to follow right-wing economics.

Ah but that's because many of those voters were more interested in punishing their usual party than on picking a new one.

[mvd10]

Btw.....if your explanation is based on data, it's funny that people who would leave the PdvA cause of right-wing economics would switch to D66, which also seems to follow right-wing economics.

Ah but that's because many of those voters were more interested in punishing their usual party than on picking a new one.

It's still weird. D66 didn't even pretend to be to the left of this coalition on economics. They called for extra spending cuts to finance the tax cuts passed in 2015. Maybe most of the 2012 PvdA voters who returned to D66 were strategic voters and not actual social democrats. But it would have made more sense for them to cast a strategic vote for the VVD in that case.

[Tender Branson]

BTW:

Since January 1, Austria has its own "Denk" party:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Movement_for_the_Future

It reminds me a bit of the politically bankrupt BZÖ party (Alliance for the Future of Austria).

All of their founding members are Austro-Turks, but it says it wants to be a party for all migrants here.

[windjammer]

Any exit polls by age

[Zinneke]

BTW:

Since January 1, Austria has its own "Denk" party:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Movement_for_the_Future

It reminds me a bit of the politically bankrupt BZÖ party (Alliance for the Future of Austria).

All of their founding members are Austro-Turks, but it says it wants to be a party for all migrants here.

We have much, much worse here in Brussels.



I don't understand DENK being considered as dangerous. For sure, they are basically a sign of failed integration, and its an issue that needs to be addressed. But I don´t think they are quite aware of the political implications of their vote. 

[Mike88]

Will we only know by March 21, date of the publication of the official results, the raw vote totals for each parties?

[DavidB.]

Final guesstimate:

VVD: 28 seats [underestimated by 5]
PVV: 22 seats [overestimated by 2]
CDA: 20 seats [overestimated by 1]
D66: 18 seats [underestimated by 1]
GroenLinks: 17 seats [overestimated by 3]
SP: 15 seats [overestimated by 1]
PvdA: 10 seats [overestimated by 1]
CU: 5 seats [correct]
50Plus: 5 seats [correct or overestimated by 1]
PvdD: 4 seats [correct or underestimated by 1]
SGP: 3 seats [correct]
DENK: 2 seats [underestimated by 1]
FvD: 1 seat [underestimated by 1]

73.5% turnout [yikes]

I know Tender will always be better at this than I, but I think my prediction was pretty good, better than the 323-215 one at least... except for turnout, but that caught us all by surprise, I think. Will look at all of our more specific predictions for municipalities and parties tonight or tomorrow.

The party leaders decided that Edith Schippers (Public Health Minister, VVD), who will not be part of the next government, will look into the options for the formation of a new government. CU leader Segers already stated that he thinks Rutte should look into VVD-CDA-D66-GL before talking to him, likely because he wants to prevent that option from being on Alexander Pechtold's mind during an attempt to form a VVD-CDA-D66-CU government. I really doubt the VVD will come to an agreement with GL.

Sad news then: Rotterdam CDA city councillor Turan Yazir, who is a follower of the Milli Görus movement, today resigned his seat because he received so many death threats by Erdogan supporters. They believe in the unsubstantiated idea that Yazir would have sparked the diplomatic conflict between the Netherlands and Turkey.

The turnout figure will be 80.4%, slightly higher than in 2006. Some municipalities have insanely high turnout figures. Very happy with that.

It is still unclear whether PvdD get 5 seats and 50Plus 4 or the other way around.

[Vosem]

Final prediction:
VVD 26 (+7)
CDA 20 (-1)
PVV 20 (-)
D66 18 (+1)
GL 17 (-3)
SP 15 (-1)
PvdA 11 (-2)
CU 6 (-1)
PvdD 5 (-)
50+ 4 (-)
SGP 3 (-)
DENK 2 (+1)
FvD 2 (-)
PP 1 (-1)
VNL 1 (-1)

[mvd10]

FWIW:

The AD asked people in Heemskerk to also cast a ballot for them. The VVD currently is at 26% there. Heemskerk can be considered the bellwether of the Netherlands. But you can still vote until 21:00 so it probably isn't worth anything.

Final seat prediction:

VVD 29
PVV 21
CDA 21
D66 17
GL 16
SP 14
PvdA 12
CU 6
50PLUS 4
PvdD 4
SGP 3
DENK 2
FvD 1


I will do the other questions later today.

VVD 29 - underestimated by 4
PVV 21 - overestimated by 1
CDA 21 - overestimated by 2
D66 17 - underestimated by 2
GL 16 - overestimated by 2
SP 14 - correct
PvdA 12 - overestimated by 3
CU 6 - overestimated by 1
50PLUS 4 - presumably correct
PvdD 4 - presumably underestimated by 1
SGP 3 - correct
DENK 2 - underestimated by 1
FvD 1 - underestimated by 1

Not too bad, better than my US 2016 predictions .

I've heard some talk about a possible VVD-CDA-D66 minority coalition with different majorities depending on the issues. It makes some sense, they have 71 seats so they need just 5 more for a majority. It would also avoid the VVD-GL or D66-CU clashes. But I think the VVD prefers a majority coalition after Rutte 2.

[DavidB.]

I've heard some talk about a possible VVD-CDA-D66 minority coalition with different majorities depending on the issues. It makes some sense, they have 71 seats so they need just 5 more for a majority. It would also avoid the VVD-GL or D66-CU clashes. But I think the VVD prefers a majority coalition after Rutte 2.

It would make perfect sense to form such a coalition, which would be highly ideologically coherent: we have negative parliamentarism after all. We have to adapt to the new fragmented reality and our system allows us to do so. However, since the "experiments" of Rutte-I and Rutte-II are seen as mistakes and majority coalitions are widely viewed as more stable, it will probably not happen. The irony, of course, is that a three-party minority coalition may be a lot more stable than a four-party majority coalition with a lot of ideological differences between two or more partners.

There will be fewer female MPs in the next parliament: from 59 to 52. The seat loss of the PvdA, who always have 50% women on their list, will have contributed to this.

VVD: 10/33
PvdA: 4/9
PVV: 6/20
SP: 5/14
CDA: 6/19
D66: 7/19
CU: 2/5
GL: 7/14
SGP: 0/3
PvdD: 3/5
50Plus: 2/4
DENK: 0/3
FvD: 0/2

[Tintrlvr]

Apparently PvdA did in fact lead in a municipality: Sint-Eustatius, according to Wikipedia. NOS doesn't have results for the overseas territories; anyone have them?

[mvd10]

Yeah, a minority coalition starts to make even more sense now. But I wonder what will happen to measures that will end up being fairly impopular like tax reform, housing reform and labor market reform. These things will be very hard to pass with a minority coalition especially since the economy is going fairly well which means the coalition will have a hard time selling these reforms as necessary. I think parties still are more likely to vote for reforms if they are in a coalition and clear agreements have been made than if they are in constructive opposition. D66, CU and SGP were exceptions the past couple of years, but the economy was doing bad at that time. Remember how everyone opposed raising the retirement age until it became clear that the deficit was going to become a serious problem after the 2008 recession. The same things probably will happen to other reforms unless a majority coalition makes clear agreements on them. I fear that in a VVD-CDA-D66 minority coalition the opposition will just cherry pick popular proposals.

Anyway, my completely premature cabinet prediction:

VVD-CDA-D66-CU

PM: Mark Rutte (VVD)
Finance: Pieter Omtzigt (CDA)
Foreign Affairs: Han Ten Broeke (VVD)
Interior: Alexander Pechtold (D66) (also deputy prime minister for D66)
Social affairs: Edith Schippers (VVD)
Economic affairs: Alexander Rinnooy Kan (D66)
Defense: Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert (VVD)
Security and Justice: Sybrand Buma (CDA) (also deputy prime minister for CDA)
Healthcare: Mona Keijzer (CDA)
Education: Kajsa Ollongren (D66)
Infrastructure: Arie Slob (CU) (also deputy prime minister for CU)
Housing: Halbe Zijlstra (VVD)
International Development: Joël Voordewind (CU)

I tried to pick people with relevant experience regarding their portfolio but there are some fairly random picks. Idk if Ollongren has any experience with education but D66 will probably claim the education ministry and Ollongren has a lot of experience in government. The same goes for Zijlstra, Schippers and Slob. Schippers doesn't want to become healthcare minister anymore, but she is open to joining the cabinet in a different position. Zijlstra wants to become minister and he is a fairly high-profile VVD politician so I just had to give him a cabinet position. Slob didn't reject the possibility of joining the cabinet and he seems like a logical pick for CU. But like I said: this is all speculative and completely premature.

[DavidB.]

Schippers is retiring from politics, isn't she? Otherwise this sounds great, almost too good to be true. And if anybody would be able to handle V&J (which I doubt) it may well be Buma. However, I expect Zijlstra to become the parliamentary group leader of the VVD and Dijkhoff, now the unofficial number two in the VVD, to be minister, perhaps at V&J. Would especially love to see Ten Broeke at Foreign Affairs. I received a targeted Facebook ad from him But I fear D66 will claim that one. Mega HP Rob de Wijk may get it -- or Pechtold himself.

[Hatman 🍁]

Apparently PvdA did in fact lead in a municipality: Sint-Eustatius, according to Wikipedia. NOS doesn't have results for the overseas territories; anyone have them?

I guess they didn't get the memo?

[jeron]

Apparently PvdA did in fact lead in a municipality: Sint-Eustatius, according to Wikipedia. NOS doesn't have results for the overseas territories; anyone have them?

PvdA didn't win on Sint-Eustatius, it was CDA which had a local candidate. Turnout: 23.2%
CDA 76.8%
D66 6.2%
GL 3.4%
A1 3.2%
PVV 1.8%
SP 1.8%
VVD 1.4%
PvdA 1.1%

Saba: turnout 50%. D66 largest party (22%).

Bonaire: turnout 22%
D66 28.6%
CDA 16.2 %
VVD 15.3%
Pvda 8.6%
GL 8.7%
PVV 4.8%

[Figueira]

Apparently PvdA did in fact lead in a municipality: Sint-Eustatius, according to Wikipedia. NOS doesn't have results for the overseas territories; anyone have them?

The Wiki map shows CDA winning Sint-Eustatius.

[SunSt0rm]

Quite ok, underestimated VVD and D66 a bit at the expense of PVV, CDA and GL.

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I dont think Pechtold will get Interior as its currently a very small ministry with hardly any power. I think based on the results, CDA will get Finance and D66 probably will get Foreign Affair. Moreover, Zijlstra has said in an interview that he wants to become Minister of Social Affair.

[SunSt0rm]

Some other observations:
- PVV's gains in the south were very poor: the disappointed southern voter who used to vote CDA but voted PVV in 2010 and VVD in 2012 often came home for the CDA this time rather than voting for Wilders once again. This is a pattern we saw in the provincial election in 2015 too: stable result nationally, but small gains in the north and losses in Limburg. This time, outside the south, the party often only slightly underperformed on its 2010 result, and in Groningen they probably did better than in 2010. The PVV lost support in Wilders' hometown of Venlo (though the absolute number of votes will be higher this time).
- Was it Sunstorm or Rogier who expected Edam-Volendam to be FvD's best municipality? This prediction was spot on: 6.1%.
- The SP received more votes than the Jessiah movement. For all the talk about Klaver's #revolution, Emile Roemer leads the largest party on the left.
- Awful result for the left. SP, PvdA, GL and PvdD received 42 seats, which should be a record low and is barely more than what the PvdA got on their own in 2012. The Dutch are a bourgeois, center-right bunch. A VVD-CDA-D66-CU coalition would be fitting in that regard.
- The Erdogan row probably gave Rutte a "Prime Minister bonus" at the expense of CDA and PVV.
- Turnout among young voters (18-24) was lower (!) than in 2012: 66%.

I predicted Edam-Volendam to be VNL best municipality unfortunately, but I was correct that one of the smaller right parties will do well there. Another observation is that the VVD has become largest in the province of Groningen, which is the left stronghold. CDA managed to win Overijssel and Friesland and the PVV won Limburg