Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[DavidB.]

I'm quite annoyed by the lack of good maps this time around. I want a map where I can see support for one party across the country by municipality to get a better understanding of the picture. I especially wonder whether the support pattern for the VVD is now different than in 2010, when they received a similar percentage of the vote. I'm also interested in seeing the PVV map across the country and compare it to the map in 2014, when they got 13.3% in the European election, and the 2011 map, when they got 12.4% in the provincials.

[DavidB.]

Today, the newly elected leaders also discussed proposals on where the various parties will be seated in the new parliament. Left-wing parties sit on the left, centrist parties in the middle and right-wing parties on the right. It was proposed that Thierry Baudet's FvD take the seats that used to belong to VNL, in the far right corner of parliament behind the PVV, but Baudet objects to this and does not want to share a part of the parliament with VVD, CDA and SGP either: he states FvD are a "progressive party of the center" What a troll. Meanwhile, FvD #2 Theo Hiddema said he needs some more time to finish his affairs as a top lawyer, which would mean he will not immediately be available on a fulltime basis.

[Zinneke]

Today, the newly elected leaders also discussed proposals on where the various parties will be seated in the new parliament. Left-wing parties sit on the left, centrist parties in the middle and right-wing parties on the right. It was proposed that Thierry Baudet's FvD take the seats that used to belong to VNL, in the far right corner of parliament behind the PVV, but Baudet objects to this and does not want to share a part of the parliament with VVD, CDA and SGP either: he states FvD are a "progressive party of the center" What a troll. Meanwhile, FvD #2 Theo Hiddema said he needs some more time to finish his affairs as a top lawyer, which would mean he will not immediately be available on a fulltime basis.

I agree with his statement. He sounds like the perfect successor to the CentrumPartij.

[rob in cal]

   So, what parties outside of the Fvd, attempted to coopt the PVV nationalist message, if any?  And which were the most against? (I'm guessing Denk of course, and GL?).

[Tintrlvr]

  So, what parties outside of the Fvd, attempted to coopt the PVV nationalist message, if any?  And which were the most against? (I'm guessing Denk of course, and GL?).

D66 and GL are the most anti-nationalist parties. Denk isn't really anti-nationalist; they're just Turkish nationalists instead of Dutch nationalists. A1, which was a Denk splinter group that didn't make it in, was more genuinely about immigrant rights and tolerance than Denk. In addition to PVV and FvD, there were some nationalist parties that didn't make it in, most prominently VNL, which was a PVV splinter group that had MPs in the outgoing parliament.

[SunSt0rm]

I'm quite annoyed by the lack of good maps this time around. I want a map where I can see support for one party across the country by municipality to get a better understanding of the picture. I especially wonder whether the support pattern for the VVD is now different than in 2010, when they received a similar percentage of the vote. I'm also interested in seeing the PVV map across the country and compare it to the map in 2014, when they got 13.3% in the European election, and the 2011 map, when they got 12.4% in the provincials.

My first impression is that the PVV lost some voters in the South, while it gained in the northeast compared to 2010.

Map where the combined right won, Its mainly outside the Randstad

[SunSt0rm]

   So, what parties outside of the Fvd, attempted to coopt the PVV nationalist message, if any?  And which were the most against? (I'm guessing Denk of course, and GL?).

In this campaign VVD, SGP and especially CDA appealed to the PVV nationalist message. CDA had a plan which require children to sing the national anthem at school. PvdA had a weird message of progressive patriottism

[DavidB.]

Very intriguing map Sunstorm, thanks for posting it. As for the PVV becoming less "southern", this is true. They came close to their 2010 result in many places outside the south, but their gains in the south were poor.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

The very underwhelming performance of the PVV and the corresponding celebrations of left-liberals are totally misplaced and leading them to overlook a more disturbing trend: the far-right's message is being co-opted by center-right parties and, in a sense, the far-right has "won" the argument on nationalism and immigration. This, too, is a hot take and probably overly hyperbolic for the reason that anti-immigrant sentiment has always been fairly normal in the Netherlands but, nevertheless, these election results give no one on the left any reason to celebrate. They're yet another depressing data point, proof that when more respectable parties adopt the language of the far-right, that they will achieve a great deal of success.

All elections are "local" in the sense that particular factors drive them so this probably isn't generalizable outside of the Netherlands but it's rather apparent that there's some sort of tendency or trend where parties of the center-right are becoming more "illiberal" and achieving success. You could point to France as an example but, then again, you could also say it's an example of why this sort of analysis is misplaced because Fillon is failing and Macron is succeeding. I think I agree with the latter contention.

[Beet]

I'm quite annoyed by the lack of good maps this time around. I want a map where I can see support for one party across the country by municipality to get a better understanding of the picture. I especially wonder whether the support pattern for the VVD is now different than in 2010, when they received a similar percentage of the vote. I'm also interested in seeing the PVV map across the country and compare it to the map in 2014, when they got 13.3% in the European election, and the 2011 map, when they got 12.4% in the provincials.

My first impression is that the PVV lost some voters in the South, while it gained in the northeast compared to 2010.

Map where the combined right won, Its mainly outside the Randstad

The right was strongest in the north? Does this mean a lot of PvdA voters went to them?

[Tintrlvr]

I'm quite annoyed by the lack of good maps this time around. I want a map where I can see support for one party across the country by municipality to get a better understanding of the picture. I especially wonder whether the support pattern for the VVD is now different than in 2010, when they received a similar percentage of the vote. I'm also interested in seeing the PVV map across the country and compare it to the map in 2014, when they got 13.3% in the European election, and the 2011 map, when they got 12.4% in the provincials.

My first impression is that the PVV lost some voters in the South, while it gained in the northeast compared to 2010.

Map where the combined right won, Its mainly outside the Randstad

The right was strongest in the north? Does this mean a lot of PvdA voters went to them?

It's a map of where the right-wing parties gained or lost. The right was still relatively weak in the northeast compared to nationally. PvdA votes scattered, but a fair number went to CDA and PVV, albeit fewer than went to GL, D66, PvdD and SP (the last only in the northeast), so the overall gains for the right were greater where the PvdA vote was higher relative to the other parties of the center and left in 2012.

[DavidB.]

The right was strongest in the north? Does this mean a lot of PvdA voters went to them?

This is a swing map. In Groningen there was doubtlessly PvdA -> PVV and SP -> PVV voter movement (as well as PvdA -> SP), but not sure about Friesland. PvdA -> CDA may be possible there too.

The very underwhelming performance of the PVV and the corresponding celebrations of left-liberals are totally misplaced and leading them to overlook a more disturbing trend: the far-right's message is being co-opted by center-right parties and, in a sense, the far-right has "won" the argument on nationalism and immigration. This, too, is a hot take and probably overly hyperbolic for the reason that anti-immigrant sentiment has always been fairly normal in the Netherlands but, nevertheless, these election results give no one on the left any reason to celebrate. They're yet another depressing data point, proof that when more respectable parties adopt the language of the far-right, that they will achieve a great deal of success.

This is exactly the analysis of leading Dutch opinion makers (such as Rutger Bregman: here) on the left. "Wilders won -- but he won with VVD, CDA and FvD rather than with the PVV." VVD and CDA ran on a more right-wing platform than ever in order not to lose or to win voters (and so did the SGP), FvD are nationalist conservatives and will be yet another right-wing voice in parliament, and the PVV still won five seats too. Most left-wingers were relieved because of the underwhelming gains for the PVV yesterday night but realized the implications of the election result when they woke up this morning and are having a very bad day.

[ApatheticAustrian]

totally depends on what your short-term priorities are as "lefties".....immigration rights are atm not my nr1 issue as long as we are literally still handling a few million immigrants from 2015....if we have "swallowed" that challenge we can talk again.

the primary goal of the far right during the last years has been destroying the EU, which seemed quite likely after brexit...one year later, this ambition has been crushed in Austria, in the Netherlands and - most likely - soon also in France.

[DavidB.]

Well, you're arguably a progressive but not a left-winger.

[SunSt0rm]

The left had a devastating night. PvdA+GL+SP together now are smaller than the PvdA in 2012. Progressives and leftwingers should hope now that D66 & probably CU hold well in the negotiations with CDA and VVD. One positive thing about the campaign is the fact that Rutte was clearly Pro-EU in the campaign and that he did not suddenly become eurosceptic before the election or tried to do a 'Cameron'

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

totally depends on what your short-term priorities are as "lefties".....immigration rights are atm not my nr1 issue as long as we are literally still handling a few million immigrants from 2015....if we have "swallowed" that challenge we can talk again.

the primary goal of the far right during the last years has been destroying the EU, which seemed quite likely after brexit...one year later, this ambition has been crushed in Austria, in the Netherlands and - most likely - soon also in France.

So, in otherwords, a project of European elites that's primarily governed/steered by the European right has been successfully defended. So, uh, yeah, there's no reason for someone who's left-wing to celebrate (though maybe a reason to feel sort of relieved, I'll admit).

[Intell]

Working class voters a split between the SP and PVV, though lean to the SP, right?

That doesn't seem to be the case


http://nos.nl/artikel/2163332-tk17-bekijk-de-uitslagen-per-gemeente-en-vorm-je-eigen-coalitie.html

A PVV-SP split seems to be the case, though PVV+SP only get around 35% of the votes, so my wording is wrong.

DELFZIJL

SP: 16.6%
PVV: 15.9%


EMMEN:

PVV: 18.6%
SP: 15.3%

[DavidB.]

One positive thing about the campaign is the fact that Rutte was clearly Pro-EU in the campaign and that he did not suddenly become eurosceptic before the election or tried to do a 'Cameron'

Haha, that was what he tried last time around. The smart thing about his campaign this year was that he didn't promise anything. He just sold feelings. "Ben je een optimist of een pessimist?" "Normaal. Doen." "[] Laat ze maar komen. [] Laat ze maar verrekken. [X] Laten we normaal doen." "Pleur op." and his casual use of the term "kopvodden" without endorsing it. It had nothing to do with policy. Previous VVD slogans and ads were policy oriented: lower taxes, punishing criminals, cutting social benefits, etc. This time, everything was devoid of any meaning. Yet it worked.

[DavidB.]

First and second party by municipality. Second party: VVD and CDA in civic belts in north, east and Green Heart. D66 in the Alkmaar-Nijmegen progressive belt. PVV in suburban, exurban and declining formerly industrial areas. CDA being 2nd in East Brabant shows how the PVV failed there. The PVV-grey west-east strip in the center of the country used to be deep PvdA red. The map of the second largest party is much more insightful than the VVD-blue map.

Note the lack of places where the PvdA are in 2nd place.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

totally depends on what your short-term priorities are as "lefties".....immigration rights are atm not my nr1 issue as long as we are literally still handling a few million immigrants from 2015....if we have "swallowed" that challenge we can talk again.

the primary goal of the far right during the last years has been destroying the EU, which seemed quite likely after brexit...one year later, this ambition has been crushed in Austria, in the Netherlands and - most likely - soon also in France.

It makes you wonder: what would the reception be to a eurofederalist party that was also very anti-migration and sceptical of Islam? Not that I'd support such a venture, but it could be interesting.

[ApatheticAustrian]

So, in otherwords, a project of European elites that's primarily governed/steered by the European right has been successfully defended. So, uh, yeah, there's no reason for someone who's left-wing to celebrate (though maybe a reason to feel sort of relieved, I'll admit).

i understand your cynicism, it's just my underlining belief, that the only way to enshrine social-democratic victories of the past in the future is through the advanced integration of the EU states and in general even more global institutionalism.

as long as the social democratic parties of this continent are only playing defend against liars like wilders who wouldn't know how to fund their own promises, the christian democratic parties are more likely to win.......if the leftish/progressive parties can find a new narrative, i think they would be able to more competetive again ....and your bureaucratic monster is for me a tool to establish standards for welfare/working policies. but i digress....don't want to totally derail this thread.

[DC Al Fine]

Why are CU/SGP voters so young? Only because of high birth rates in the Bible Belt? Which of these 2 parties has younger voters? SGP?

DavidB would know this better than me, but I'll take a stab at it: the relative youth of the CU/SGP is a mix of high birth rates, non-Reformed Evangelicals not being on the scene very long, and a older voters from CU/SGP friendly churches being tribal CDA voters.

I would guess SGP is younger. From my experience, some of the more extreme Reformed Protestants are anti-contraception and SGP is more likely to harbour that sort of voter.

DavidB please feel free to smack me down if I'm totally wrong

[DavidB.]

I think -- but it's an educated guess at most -- that this may be spot on except for the point on non-reformed evangelicals, who, while they exist, are so small a minority that they won't matter for the numbers. I know some of these people in the third category: non-Reformed right-wing (in terms of church) Protestant Church of the Netherlands people whose parents are lifelong CDA voters and who turn to the political right themselves (though CDA to CU is arguably a step to the left politically, but to the right religiously).

[Diouf]

totally depends on what your short-term priorities are as "lefties".....immigration rights are atm not my nr1 issue as long as we are literally still handling a few million immigrants from 2015....if we have "swallowed" that challenge we can talk again.

the primary goal of the far right during the last years has been destroying the EU, which seemed quite likely after brexit...one year later, this ambition has been crushed in Austria, in the Netherlands and - most likely - soon also in France.

It makes you wonder: what would the reception be to a eurofederalist party that was also very anti-migration and sceptical of Islam? Not that I'd support such a venture, but it could be interesting.

Well, if it is to be anti-migration, then it would have to be purely non-western migration it opposed for it to be logically coherent with EU-membership. I don't know if there would be much room for a committed eurofederalist party with these views, but it is a fairly standard centre-right position now to be broadly pro-EU, in favour of freedom of movement and the common market, as well as critical of Islam and wanting to tighten rules for non-western migrants. If the EU can reach agreement on an Australian-style system where you can't seek asylum from the EU area, I guess that is a eurofederalist step, but the parties in favour will mostly not brand it like that. Until that happens, the pro-EU parties will mostly try to tighten non-western migration within international rules, which limits how much you will be able to reduce it and therefore also to some degree the electoral effect.

[DavidB.]

The final turnout percentage is 80.8%, the highest since 1986.

People often vote for a woman for feminist reasons, but they usually picked the first woman on the list. She was often sure to be elected anyway, so a vote for the first woman on the list typically doesn't increase the number of women in parliament. For that reason, there was a campaign to vote for women who are placed just below an electable position on the list this time. If they are elected with preference votes this does alter the gender balance in parliament. This campaign seems to have had the effect that Isabelle Diks, #19 on the GL list, has been elected with preference votes... at the expense of another woman, Lisa Westerveld at #14. However, Westerveld herself can still reach the preference threshold too. On the PvdA list it appears that incumbent Development Aid Minister Lilianne Ploumen, #10, has been elected for similar reasons and personal popularity at the expense of the #9, William Moorlag.