Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Angel of Death]

Poor Austria. Everybody is crediting the Dutch as the first to go against the populism that brought your Brexit and Trump.

[Tender Branson]

I wonder if Marcel Hirscher voted in this election as well.

Not many know that he has a Dutch mother and therefore has Dutch citizenship too.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=klWDAob3bRY

To the Dutch posters: How is his Dutch ?

[DavidB.]

I wonder if Marcel Hirscher voted in this election as well.

Not many know that he has a Dutch mother and therefore has Dutch citizenship too.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=klWDAob3bRY

To the Dutch posters: How is his Dutch ?

Haha, no idea who this is, but it sounds like he reads it off a teleprompter. He has an extremely strong German accent but his pronunciation is alright, I have no trouble understanding him.

[Tender Branson]

I wonder if Marcel Hirscher voted in this election as well.

Not many know that he has a Dutch mother and therefore has Dutch citizenship too.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=klWDAob3bRY

To the Dutch posters: How is his Dutch ?

Haha, no idea who this is, but it sounds like reads it off a teleprompter. He has an extremely strong German accent but his pronunciation is alright, I have no trouble understanding him.

"No idea who this is ..."



Spoken like a true lowlander.

[DavidB.]

Best DENK municipalities (>4%):
Schiedam: 8.2%
Rotterdam: 8.1%
Amsterdam: 7.5%
The Hague: 7.1%
Leerdam: 6.7%
Maassluis: 5.7%
Vlaardingen: 5.7%
Utrecht: 5.4%
Zaanstad: 5%
Gorinchem: 4.9%
Tiel: 4.5%
Almelo: 4.4%
Bergen op Zoom: 4.4%
Dordrecht: 4.3%
Culemborg: 4.2%
Roermond: 4.1%

[Tender Branson]

Best DENK municipalities (>4%):
Schiedam: 8.2%
Rotterdam: 8.1%
Amsterdam: 7.5%
The Hague: 7.1%
Leerdam: 6.7%
Maassluis: 5.7%
Vlaardingen: 5.7%
Utrecht: 5.4%
Zaanstad: 5%
Tiel: 4.5%
Almelo: 4.4%
Bergen op Zoom: 4.4%
Dordrecht: 4.3%
Culemborg: 4.2%
Roermond: 4.1%

Was there a strong correlation between the Turkish/migrant share in these cities and the Denk vote ?

For the bigger cities it's obvious, but what about smaller ones ?

[Intell]

How did the native dutch working class, and the dutch poor vote?

I also swear DavidB has me on ignore.

[jeron]

How did the native dutch working class, and the dutch poor vote?

I don't know the exact figures, but generally PVV and SP. although, there seem to be more people voting VVD in this category nowadays. PvdA has largely lost its support in this category, except for people aged 60+.

[DavidB.]

Was there a strong correlation between the Turkish/migrant share in these cities and the Denk vote ?

For the bigger cities it's obvious, but what about smaller ones ?

Strong correlation between the Muslim share of the population and the DENK vote, yes. Places like Leerdam are relatively small but have sizeable Moroccan and/or Turkish communities. It seems like Moroccans voted DENK at equal rates as Turks.

How did the native dutch working class, and the dutch poor vote?

I also swear DavidB has me on ignore.

I don't. PVV and SP probably got over 50% of the native Dutch working-class vote, with the PVV being much stronger than the SP in the urban West. Unfortunately I haven't seen any exit polls based on income. 50Plus will also be relatively strong here. The rest of the vote could have gone anywhere. VVD, CDA, PvdA, PvdD... and a lot of non-voters, of course. It seems like turnout in Dutch working-class areas was lower than in poor minority areas due to the DENK effect.

[rob in cal]

    What city or town has the biggest non-white voting percentage?  Also, any idea of the overall direction of the Dutch non-white electorate voting breakdown?  I'm guessing Denk did best among moslems, and GL among non-moslems?

[DavidB.]

   What city or town has the biggest non-white voting percentage?  Also, any idea of the overall direction of the Dutch non-white electorate voting breakdown?  I'm guessing Denk did best among moslems, and GL among non-moslems?

Rotterdam, probably. DENK easily did best among Muslims; non-Muslim non-whites cannot really be lumped together. Judging by the results I think the PVV "won" Hindustanis and the PvdA or GL Creoles.

[DavidB.]

Ipsos, Kantar and Peil (in that order) were the most accurate pollsters. I&O and LISS (unsurprisingly) as well as EenVandaag did worse, which shows that pollsters should simply ask people who they will vote for instead of having them distribute a larger number of votes among parties -- that is simply not how our electoral system works. The Peilingwijzer performed better than any of the individual polls, though the difference with the Ipsos poll is very small.

Tom Louwerse, Leiden University, Peilingwijzer wizard:

[parochial boy]

Is there any way of telling how many non-Muslims voted for Denk? I am guessing virtually none?

[DavidB.]

Is there any way of telling how many non-Muslims voted for Denk? I am guessing virtually none?

No way of knowing for sure, since non-Muslims can vote in predominantly Muslim polling stations too, but virtually none seems the right answer. There was a chance of white SJWs voting DENK when Sylvana Simons was still a candidate and the veneer of being an anti-racist party rather than a Muslim interest party was still there, but that ended when she left. Judging by the results of non-Muslim minority areas in Amsterdam, DENK did very poorly there and was in all likelihood only supported by Muslims who live there. There seems a direct relationship between the percentage DENK got and the percentage of Muslims in a polling station/area/municipality/you name it. If there are virtually no Muslims, DENK got virtually no votes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Judging by the results I think the PVV "won" Hindustanis

1. lol

2. That's an amusingly old fashioned phrasing (I presume a literal trans. from Dutch). Where in India are these people from?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Are there different voting habits between Moroccan, Turkish and Kurdish Muslims?

[jeron]

Judging by the results I think the PVV "won" Hindustanis

1. lol

2. That's an amusingly old fashioned phrasing (I presume a literal trans. from Dutch). Where in India are these people from?

The Dutch Hindustani didn't' come from India to the Netherlands directly.  After slavery was abolished in the Dutch colony of Surinam, the Dutch recruited Indian people to work in Surinam. After Surinam independence many Surinamese people came to the Netherlands including the Hindustani. They are still called Hindustani in both the Netherlands and Surinam.
People who come from India are called Indian in Dutch, Hindustani is only used for the Indian people from Surinam.

[DavidB.]

Are there different voting habits between Moroccan, Turkish and Kurdish Muslims?

In the past Turks, who are more often small business owners or highly educated, have been more inclined to vote D66 than Moroccans (and D66 allowing former MP Fatma Koser Kaya to deny the Armenian genocide while the PvdA not allowing their MPs to do so also may have played a role here), but otherwise voting patterns have been relatively similar. Nationalist Kurds are much more inclined to vote for the SP than Turkish and Moroccan Muslims: the SP have a very outspoken Kurdish Dutch MP, Sadet Karabulut, and want to take the PKK off the EU list of terrorist organizations. For this reason, nationalist Turks often hate the SP and DENK have troll-proposed investigating the relationship between the SP and the PKK.

[freek]

Judging by the results I think the PVV "won" Hindustanis

1. lol

2. That's an amusingly old fashioned phrasing (I presume a literal trans. from Dutch). Where in India are these people from?

Their ancestors were from what is currently Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

[Famous Mortimer]

Who votes for Labor at this point? Old people, labor union officials, and immigrants?

What do you think the split was between Muslims for voted for DENK and Muslims who voted for Labor?

Also, what other non-Muslim minorities are there? Who are the Creoles? Just anyone mixed Dutch and anything else? Are there Chinese from Indonesia? I thought the Labor Party had one Sino-Indonesian MP.

[DavidB.]

Who votes for Labor at this point? Old people, labor union officials, and immigrants?

Old people, middle-class babyboomers who never lost their left-wing ideals, some teachers, some working-class people who will never vote for another party regardless of what the PvdA do, and those who got the PvdA as their Votematch result, don't necessarily have a negative opinion of them and vote for them (I know students like this).

What do you think the split was between Muslims for voted for DENK and Muslims who voted for Labor?

You need to take this estimate with a ton of salt, but based on the election results in certain areas and polling stations in The Hague and looking at the DENK results in municipalities in general, I would say that somewhere between 40% and 70% of Turkish and Moroccan Muslims who turned out voted for DENK. The PvdA will probably be the largest party among those who didn't vote for them.

Also, what other non-Muslim minorities are there? Who are the Creoles? Just anyone mixed Dutch and anything else? Are there Chinese from Indonesia? I thought the Labor Party had one Sino-Indonesian MP.

Creoles are black, non-Indian Surinamese. There are Surinamese of Asian descent. There are Chinese from Indonesia too. There are Antilleans (a lot), Moluccans, Cape Verdeans (in Rotterdam; I know nothing about how they vote), Ghanaians (in Amsterdam)...

[DavidB.]

PvdA chairman Hans Spekman gets six more months to clean up the mess after basically begging the membership to get the opportunity to do so. PvdA leader Asscher stated he would not enter another coalition with the VVD this time after 80% of the membership voted for a motion against doing so.

Meanwhile, the "final" turnout figure proved to be not that "final": it continues to change as the last postal votes are counted. According to the NOS, which should be the most reliable source, we're now at 81.4%. That would be the fifth highest turnout since the abolishment of compulsory voting in 1970, behind 1977 (88.1%), 1981 (87%), 1986 (85.8%) and 1972 (83.5%).

[DavidB.]

Some maps by De Volkskrant.

Support of a potential VVD-CDA-D66-CU ("bourgeois right") coalition, which has 76 seats and is at about 50% of the popular vote. Mainly suburban, exurban and rural areas that aren't doing bad.


Green = "green" (D66, GL, PvdD) larger than populist (PVV, SP, 50Plus, FvD); yellow = the other way around. Map represents population distribution. The Alkmaar-Nijmegen progressive belt is real, folks.


Some maps by Josse de Voogd:

Left vs. right (note that D66 is considered to be left-wing here; makes the changes between 2012 and 2017 even more remarkable):


Support PVV in 2017, absolute growth (compared to 2012), and relative growth (compared to 2012): growth outside the urban West -- and Limburg.

[DavidB.]

Why this happened? Josse de Voogd: "When the left starts campaigning on the cultural dimension, the rest of the country says: get me outta here. This effect is stronger once you get closer to the border. The losses of the left are larger in the east and the south." Asscher campaigning against Wilders instead of Rutte was perhaps inevitable, but it's been a disaster for the party, one everyone could have anticipated (I certainly did).

[Hifly]

Does anybody know what the best polling station or sub-municipal unit was for the PvDA?