Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[DavidB.]

So are any of the leaders resigning? I mean, obviously Wilders won't go (unless he gets bored and flies off to America for a lucrative career at breitbart or something); but surely Roemer and Asscher need to leave pronto?

It has been quiet within the SP, but I still expect a coup to happen there. It always happens silently there, not in the heat of the moment. Jan Marijnissen would love to see his daughter take over. But this may take some months, or some years. Lilian Marijnissen was only just elected.

Asscher will stay on, which is terrible for the party. It's as if Hillary Clinton got to stay on as leader of the Democrats after her defeat. I always thought Asscher would make a good PvdA leader, but I also thought he would be finished if he took over before the inevitable defeat in this election, which will stick with him forever. Truly an incomprehensible kind of hubris for him to have tried to turn the tide. He means well and perhaps he could have done well in the next election (though even that is doubtful given his underwhelming, tone-deaf campaign), but the PvdA needs someone different now. Anyway, they will probably lose the next second-order elections too, starting with next year's municipal elections, and then someone will stab him in the back and Aboutaleb will take over. The problem with him is that he is more of a manager than a politician (let alone the leader of an opposition party) too, just like Asscher.

[mvd10]

I wonder who the next VVD leader will be actually. Rutte probably won't run in the next election (unless the cabinet falls in 2018). Halbe Zijlstra (parliamentary leader) and Edith Schippers (healthcare minister) are the most mentioned names, but Schippers not wanting to be MP makes me think she doesn't really have leadership ambitions. Zijlstra absolutely wants to be leader though. Both Schippers and Zijlstra are to the right of Rutte, but Zijlstra probably is the most right-wing of the three. Klaas Dijkhoff also is an interesting option. He is young, fairly charismatic and competent. He currently is deputy justice minister, but I'm sure he will be either parliamentary leader or minister in the next cabinet. Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert (defense minister) was number 2 on the VVD list but I can't see her as VVD leader. She is horribly incompetent and on the left of the party.

[DavidB.]

It is clear the party establishment is gearing up Klaas Dijkhoff to be the next leader (even if I'm not entirely sure that Rutte doesn't run another time: his PM bonus may be even bigger next time around, he's still fairly young, no criticism seems to stick with him, he doesn't care about making money given his lifestyle, and he doesn't have a family). Together with Rutte and Hennis, Dijkhoff was the only spokesperson in the VVD campaign. The party has successfully rebranded him as some young, charismatic, folksy guy despite the fact that he is an academic with a PhD and that people close to him know he has always been nerdy. I still don't know what happened to Schippers: was she sidelined for being too critical of Rutte in the press (the infamous NRC interview), was this criticism staged and does she really want some more time for herself, or does she think she has a better shot at becoming party leader in four years? Given the fact that Rutte still appears to trust her and that she became "explorer" for a next government, the second or third possibility seem most likely to me. Zijlstra himself clearly wants to lead the party but it also seems the establishment is less enthusiastic.

[mgop]

Green = "green" (D66, GL, PvdD) larger than populist (PVV, SP, 50Plus, FvD); yellow = the other way around. Map represents population distribution. The Alkmaar-Nijmegen progressive belt is real, folks.


without dams most of progressive belt would be under water, that would be nice netherlands why is nijmegen so progressive?

[DavidB.]

without dams most of progressive belt would be under water, that would be nice netherlands why is nijmegen so progressive?

University.

[mgop]

without dams most of progressive belt would be under water, that would be nice netherlands why is nijmegen so progressive?

University.

but thats catholic university. besides other cities also have universities but arent that much progressive.

[DavidB.]

but thats catholic university. besides other cities also have universities but arent that much progressive.

It's Catholic in name only nowadays, and I can tell you that it's one of the most progressive, left-wing universities in the country. Other university cities are progressive too: Leiden, Delft, Utrecht, Groningen and Wageningen were the only places won by D66 and are all university towns (though Utrecht is progressive and highly educated in general), in Rotterdam, Enschede, Eindhoven, Maastricht and Tilburg the student population is relatively smaller compared to the non-student population (and Maastricht has many internationals who don't vote), and I don't have to start about Amsterdam. But Nijmegen, like Amsterdam, is more old-left, whereas Leiden, Groningen and Delft are more progressive than truly left-wing.

[mgop]

but thats catholic university. besides other cities also have universities but arent that much progressive.

It's Catholic in name only nowadays, and I can tell you that it's one of the most progressive, left-wing universities in the country. Other university cities are progressive too: Leiden, Delft, Utrecht, Groningen and Wageningen were the only places won by D66 and are all university towns (though Utrecht is progressive and highly educated in general), in Rotterdam, Enschede, Eindhoven, Maastricht and Tilburg the student population is relatively smaller compared to the non-student population (and Maastricht has many internationals who don't vote), and I don't have to start about Amsterdam.

that makes sense. and yeah amsterdam, city where denk got more votes than pvv is really sad place...

[SunSt0rm]

Even without the university Nijmegen is very left-wing. It is also known as the Havana on the Waal

[DavidB.]

Ronald Plasterk, Interior Minister (PvdA), now suggests the 9 PvdA MPs place themselves under the leadership of Jesse Klaver and form one parliamentary group with GL, with the intention of eventually forming one progressive party that ideally includes the SP too.

[ApatheticAustrian]

sounds like a radical but surely more realistic approach, especially if the opposition is meant to talk in an united fashion.

[DavidB.]

It seems like an overreaction to me. In 2012 we declared GL dead and thought they were redundant given the existence of D66, PvdA, PvdD and SP. In 2017 they reached an all-time high. Losing an election is never easy but the PvdA should be able to find the way up again by themselves.

[seb_pard]

Well also is a way to put pressure on GL. If Groenlinks become part of the new government, PvdA could take advantage on the left side (knowing that for many voters SP is not a viable option).

[Antonio the Sixth]

If Groenlinks become part of the new government

That's a serious possibility? FFS

[DavidB.]

If Groenlinks become part of the new government

That's a serious possibility? FFS

VVD-CDA-D66-GL was considered to be the most likely option before the election, but now that GL's gains have been relatively underwhelming (14 seats was less than most polls suggested), the VVD still have well over 30 seats, and VVD-CDA-D66-CU have a majority, this latter coalition (or alternatively a VVD-CDA-D66 minority coalition) seems much more likely now.

[SunSt0rm]

Coalitions are being explored now.

- VVD wants majority coalition in both chambers consisting of CDA+D66 and a fourth which could include CU, GL, PvdA or SP. Important subjects for VVD: tax cuts, energytransition (!), investing in security.
- GL wants a christian progressive coalition which would consists of CDA+D66+GL+SP+PvdA+ CU or PvdD I guess. important subjects for GL: fighting inequality, environmentalism and humane refugee policy.
- CDA says a majority coalition around VVD has to be formed, says a chrisitian progressive coalition is not logic. Important subjects: immigration & integration, reform labor market and restoring values and norms.
- D66 wants VVD+CDA+D66+GL
- PVV wants VVD+PVV+CDA+50Plus+SGP+FvD. He says it would be undemocratic to ignore the second largest party

Furthermore, Plasterk, PvdA interior ministers, suggests that the PvdA group in parliament should merge with the GL fraction. PvdA leader Asscher rejects that idea

[SunSt0rm]

VVD+CDA+D66+GL will probably rejected as the VVD+CDA+D66+CU+SGP now has a majority. Before the election the second option was not really considered as it did not have a majority in the polls.

D66 wants VVD+CDA+D66+GL
VVD and CDA probably wants VVD+CDA+D66+CU

The first option will probably be explored first as GL is the biggest winner of the election. Its in everyone interest that this option will be investigated first before the second option will be explored. Pechtold can tell his supporters that he tried to include GL, but was not possible and that CU is unfortunately now the only option creating support for his decision. VVD, CDA and GL can show that they tried to respect the election result but it was impossible due to the differences which would create relief in all three parties. CU has gained its strength in the second negotiation phase. One of the biggest mistake of the previous coalition is that the coalition was formed too quick, which created the idea that the parties especially PvdA were too easily willing to give up their stance. The first weeks will therefore be wasted just to create drama.

[DavidB.]

Another thing is that Buma wants a majority coalition, so probably no VVD-CDA-D66 minority government. Coalition explorer Schippers announced she will not return in a new government.

Wonder how long the VVD-CDA-D66-GL talks will last. A waste of time, since GL will end up not doing it anyway -- either that or Jesse Klaver is more delusional than I thought. A coalition with D66 and CU will be "green" anyway, though.

[mvd10]

I guess we can cross Schippers of the list in that case. I agree that it's likely going to be Dijkhoff. Zijlstra might have burned some bridges when he allegedly almost blew up the cabinet during the ''bed, bad en brood'' crisis.

This reminds met of the 2003 formation. Most people wanted a CDA-PvdA coalition (the 2 big winners of the election) but the CDA elites wanted CDA-VVD with either D66 or CU/SGP. Before negotiations on a CDA-VVD-D66 cabinet could start the CDA-PvdA negotiations had to fail. But I'm pretty sure both the VVD base and the party elite prefer CU over GL this time. CU thinks VVD-CDA-D66 should talk to GL first though. Probably to make sure their own negotiation position is stronger. If VVD-CDA-D66-GL fails (very likely) VVD-CDA-D66-CU is the only serious option, which strengthens CU's position.

[DavidB.]

PvdD want VVD-GL-D66-CU-PvdD. SGP are interested in a right-wing option with the PVV. So are 50Plus, but only if the pension age will be 65 again. Of course, none of this is going to happen, but still interesting.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What does "energy transition" for the VVD mean?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

What does "energy transition" for the VVD mean?

I'm guessing it has to do with reducing coal power and instead increase environmentally friendly power, like wind and solar. 

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What does "energy transition" for the VVD mean?

I'm guessing it has to do with reducing coal power and instead increase environmentally friendly power, like wind and solar. 

yes, I guessed that; but seeing as I'm pretty sure the VVD were very divided about whether they should close down the coal plants they (stupidly) built very recently.

[Zinneke]

What does "energy transition" for the VVD mean?

I'm guessing it has to do with reducing coal power and instead increase environmentally friendly power, like wind and solar.  

Encourage innovation vs technical-specific proposals (read : regulation) is the trade-off.

[DavidB.]

According to Nederlands Dagblad, there are the final results including numbers of raw votes. Final turnout would be 81.3% (+6.9%).