Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Dutch Conservative]

Has there ever been a political party in the Netherlands that has been a junior party in a coalition government and NOT been slaughtered in the subsequent election?

ChristenUnie went from 6 to 5 seats in 2010, after they were part of Balkenende IV. In that election the CDA was slaughtered and went from 41 to 21. I guess there are other examples, but this is the only one I can remember.

[DavidB.]

Has there ever been a political party in the Netherlands that has been a junior party in a coalition government and NOT been slaughtered in the subsequent election?

Of course this used to be the norm before depillarization. Otherwise it depends on your definition of "junior partner", a term not used in the Netherlands. The VVD lost only 2 seats in 1981. If parties that are second largest in a three-party coalition coalition count, the PvdA won 3 in 1982, after a short stint in Van Agt's second government. The VVD won 7 in 1998 and 4 in 2003. And then there's Dutch Conservative's example of the CU.

In general governing comes at a high price in the Netherlands, but it is not as if a total collapse like the PvdA suffered now is suddenly the norm.

[SunSt0rm]

D66 always lose half of its support after they are in government. So expect them at 9 or 10 seats next election.

[DavidB.]

D66 always lose half of its support after they are in government. So expect them at 9 or 10 seats next election.

Yeah, this expectation seems about right. On the basis of political history one would expect the CDA to lose some seats directly to the VVD too, but this is less certain.

[SunSt0rm]

D66 always lose half of its support after they are in government. So expect them at 9 or 10 seats next election.

Yeah, this expectation seems about right. On the basis of political history one would expect the CDA to lose some seats directly to the VVD too, but this is less certain.

I am not so sure tbh. The senior party seems to make big losses when the pm retires (PvdA 2002 & CDA 1992) or when the pm is doing an election too many (CDA 2010)

[DavidB.]

And I'm still unconvinced any of these two option will be the case -- but we'll see I agree the electoral perspectives of VVD and CDA are much less clear than that of D66.

[DC Al Fine]

Has there ever been a political party in the Netherlands that has been a junior party in a coalition government and NOT been slaughtered in the subsequent election?

Of course this used to be the norm before depillarization. Otherwise it depends on your definition of "junior partner", a term not used in the Netherlands. The VVD lost only 2 seats in 1981. If parties that are second largest in a three-party coalition coalition count, the PvdA won 3 in 1982, after a short stint in Van Agt's second government. The VVD won 7 in 1998 and 4 in 2003. And then there's Dutch Conservative's example of the CU.

In general governing comes at a high price in the Netherlands, but it is not as if a total collapse like the PvdA suffered now is suddenly the norm.

ChristenUnie (or any party representing a minority) is an exceptional case though. A lot of theirvoters don't have anywhere to go. Compare this to a generic centre left or centre right voter and their options.

Has there ever been a political party in the Netherlands that has been a junior party in a coalition government and NOT been slaughtered in the subsequent election?

Of course this used to be the norm before depillarization. Otherwise it depends on your definition of "junior partner", a term not used in the Netherlands. The VVD lost only 2 seats in 1981. If parties that are second largest in a three-party coalition coalition count, the PvdA won 3 in 1982, after a short stint in Van Agt's second government. The VVD won 7 in 1998 and 4 in 2003. And then there's Dutch Conservative's example of the CU.

In general governing comes at a high price in the Netherlands, but it is not as if a total collapse like the PvdA suffered now is suddenly the norm.

For GreenLeft, governing is not about risking a massive loss. Instead, they risk wasting a huge opportunity. There's a big bloc of leftish voters that doesn't really have a home right now. Labour is in disarray, the Socialists have internal issues and D66 will almost certainly have to make compromises that will upset left leaning voters.

If GreenLeft stays out of government there's potential to make big gains next election as the major untainted option for leftish voters. However they risk throwing that away if they sit in government.

[DC Al Fine]

Question for the Dutch posters:

I've noticed that the Netherlands has a history of small parties that win seats for an election or two and then fade away. Party for the Animals seems to be a keeper, but what about the others?

Do 50+, DENK, and FvD stand a chance at sticking around long term?

[Zinneke]

Question for the Dutch posters:

I've noticed that the Netherlands has a history of small parties that win seats for an election or two and then fade away. Party for the Animals seems to be a keeper, but what about the others?

Do 50+, DENK, and FvD stand a chance at sticking around long term?

I am not Dutch unfortunately, but your question is interesting so I would attempt it nonetheless to start things off. Apart from what is on the political agenda, I would say that party durability is indirectly linked to the party structure - i.e whether its personalist or not - and also whether it is vulnerable to factionalisation. Parties on the far right in the NL seem to suffer from both phenomena hence why I have to count the number of Dutch far right parties on my fingers. Contrastly, south of the border the VB (regardless as to what the B stands for) has never really faced an existential crisis because it has pretty solid party structures that remarkably allows for factions within and the leader has a queue of people who could take his place should he be assasinated a week before an election. I said pages ago that PVV may not last the end of the decade despite their gains and similarly if the FvD were to take his place its hard to see them lasting without Baudet.

I'm not familiar with how the 50+ party works. It seems like it revolves around Henk Kroll in the media but had some career politicians on its list who seem to know what they are doing. Its hard to tell which one of the two makes their success. But their policy proposals are the kind that could eventually be bought off by the CDA or a revived PvdA.

For DENK you definitely need an ethnographer on the ground to figure out why that demographic turned out for this election, and whether they will actually vote again come what may.

[DavidB.]

50Plus will probably stick around as the Dutch population will continue to age and there will always be some people who think a non-pensioners party doesn't represent them, or they have been ticked off by other parties (or "politics" in general) to the extent that they view 50Plus as the only party worth voting for. DENK will probably stick around too, they have found an electoral goldmine -- though there is a real risk here that if they get nothing done in, say, eight years time, people may not be willing to turn out for them anymore and just stay home altogether. But the sentiments in Muslim communities that the DENK vote is based on will likely not go away, and once the genie is out the bottle it won't get in anymore. FvD is a question mark. Its future depends on whether Baudet manages to set up a professional party organization, continues to receive media attention, can present FvD as a better alternative to the PVV and is seen in a positive light by right-wing Dutch people. I'm biased and see a lot of potential, but it's not too hard to see how this could go wrong -- but at least on the short term (i.e. the next election) I expect them to stick around too.

[DavidB.]

Today, all 150 MPs were sworn in. 52 MPs, four more than in 2012, took the oath ("So help me G-d Almighty"); the other 98 took the secular pledge ("This I declare and promise"). All CDA (19), CU (5) and SGP (3) MPs took the oath. 10 out of 33 VVD MPs, including Mark Rutte, did so, as did 8 out of 20 PVV MPs, 2 out of 14 GL MPs including Jesse Klaver, FvD leader Thierry Baudet, SP MP Ronald van Raak, D66 MP Paul van Meenen, PvdA MP Lilianne Ploumen and 50Plus MP Martin van Rooijen.

[DC Al Fine]

FvD is a question mark. Its future depends on whether Baudet manages to set up a professional party organization, continues to receive media attention, can present FvD as a better alternative to the PVV and is seen in a positive light by right-wing Dutch people. I'm biased and see a lot of potential, but it's not too hard to see how this could go wrong -- but at least on the short term (i.e. the next election) I expect them to stick around too.

That makes sense. It's kind of weird how there's competition in all the other major voting blocs (Christian, centre right, left) but PVV gets the right wing populist space all to itself, with only some minor competition from VVD. That right wing populist space seems ripe for disruption.

Today, all 150 MPs were sworn in. 52 MPs, four more than in 2012, took the oath ("So help me G-d Almighty"); the other 98 took the secular pledge ("This I declare and promise"). All CDA (19), CU (5) and SGP (3) MPs took the oath. 10 out of 33 VVD MPs, including Mark Rutte, did so, as did 8 out of 20 PVV MPs, 2 out of 14 GL MPs including Jesse Klaver, FvD leader Thierry Baudet, SP MP Ronald van Raak, D66 MP Paul van Meenen, PvdA MP Lilianne Ploumen and 50Plus MP Martin van Rooijen.

This reminds me of another question. How Christian is Christian Democratic Appeal now? I was under the impression that they had morphed into a secularish Christian Democratic party like CDU/CSU or OVP, but that oath thing seems to indicate otherwise.

[DavidB.]

I'd say the CDA are clearly less Christian than CDU (let alone CSU) or ÖVP, who operate in countries that are significantly less secularized than the Netherlands. CDA don't emphasize their Christian identity that much. They only explicitly refer to it when issues related to religious freedom, Christianity, the Sunday etc. are discussed (or some ultra-progressive D66 proposal). However, the Christian Democratic ideology has been at the heart of the principles on the basis of which Buma seeks to rebuild the party. I'd say they are still a Christian party, but less than before (they voted for certain motions in support of trans rights/ending mentioning people's gender while a secular party, the PVV, opposed them), less explicitly and more pragmatically.

[mvd10]

Has there ever been a political party in the Netherlands that has been a junior party in a coalition government and NOT been slaughtered in the subsequent election?

They still got slaughtered, but PvdA 1994 is an interesting case. In 1989 CDA won 54 seats and PvdA won 48 seats. They formed a coalition. In 1994 the PvdA lost 11 seats, but the CDA lost 20 (!) and PvdA actually ended up as the biggest party. But that was a special case since incumbent CDA PM Lubbers apparently hated his successor Brinkman and basically undermined his campaign.

I agree with David on the CDA. The CDA always presented itself as a centrist party (even though they always tilted slightly to the right imo), while the ÖVP and CDU/CSU are clear centre-right parties. I wonder how the CDA compares to CD&V and CSV (Luxembourg).

[Zinneke]

CD&V have swung more to the centre too. When they were in cartel with the N-VA they were very right-wing in order to try and target white collar Flemish lower middle classes disapointed with the Purple-Green Verhofstadt-Stevaert axis and the subsequent state reforms which didn't go far enough (especially regarding Brussels periphery, but thats for the Belgian thread that will surface). I would say CD&V's left-wing faction is much larger than CDA's due to them having close links to the largest trade union in Belgium.

Cdh is way more left-wing than CDA.

Re: Lux I only know that when Junker was selected as EPP candidate it was because he provided balance for the more left-wing Christian Democrats (like Cdh) to accept what is usually someone that the Franco-German conservatives decide on.

[DavidB.]

*Mastercard jingle*

The Socialist Party losing seats after the economic crisis? A few million euros.

Managing to lose a seat as the left-wing alternative to the PvdA while they lose 29? Another several million euros.

Old boss Jan Marijnissen pulling a VVD Rotterdam and angrily telling newly elected SP MP Cem Laçin to have his Turkish family and friends congratulate him in Dutch instead of Turkish because "we're in the Netherlands here"? Priceless.

[mvd10]

A new peil poll
https://www.noties.nl/v/get.php?a=peil.nl&s=weekpoll&f=2017-maart-26.pdf

Not much changes since the election. But what's more interesting is the preferred coalition per party. 73% of VVD and CDA voters prefer a coalition with CU over a coalition with GL. But 80% of D66 voters want to work with GL. I think D66 will lose seats when we inevitably end up with VVD-CDA-D66-CU. Pechtold will become a minister (and probably also deputy PM, but that's purely symbolical) and especially if he is replaced by someone less charismatic the next election might be very ugly for D66. Which is funny because D66 would get a lot of it's policies in a VVD-CDA-D66-CU coalition, they only would have to give up on some ethical issues. But the problem is that a lot of D66 voters don't really agree with some of D66's neoliberal economic policies and that would become painfully clear once D66 actually joins a centre-right coalition.

[DL]

Forgive me for asking a question that may have been answered a long time ago, but what is the difference between CDA and CU? Why aren't they one party?

[mvd10]

Forgive me for asking a question that may have been answered a long time ago, but what is the difference between CDA and CU? Why aren't they one party?

CU is much more socially conservative, but they are quite progressive on issues like refugees and climate change. The CU is a merger of two staunchly anti-catholic protestant parties, but lately the CU has been reaching out to conservative catholics. There even were a couple of catholics on the CU list. But that was unthinkable not too long ago, so I think the CU's anti-catholic past is a reason the CU hasn't merged with the CDA which has (or had) a very strong catholic base. And many of the more socially conservative CU voters wouldn't feel at ease in the CDA, which supports gay marriage and abortion.

[Zinneke]

*Mastercard jingle*

The Socialist Party losing seats after the economic crisis? A few million euros.

Managing to lose a seat as the left-wing alternative to the PvdA while they lose 29? Another several million euros.

Old boss Jan Marijnissen pulling a VVD Rotterdam and angrily telling newly elected SP MP Cem Laçin to have his Turkish family and friends congratulate him in Dutch instead of Turkish because "we're in the Netherlands here"? Priceless.

Stop attacking the man responsible for the coolest ad in Dutch political history.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yt63rOUy-ng

[DavidB.]

Amsterdam. The DENK vote even more segregated than expected. A1 largest party in two predominantly black areas in borough Zuidoost. GL in the city center, East and Old West. D66 in more affluent "trendy" areas and, surprisingly pretty clearly, on the Amstel banks. VVD in affluent South (the large area in the north where they came first too is outside the city). PVV in North and the outer West, where some newer neighborhoods have a lower percentage of Muslims. Strong correlation PVV and SP vote: white working-class.


The Hague. Picture shows the railway, the separation sand vs. peat, the Laan van Meerdervoort...  I think I already discussed the patterns here, as well as the fact that this is clearly the most segregated city in the country, with the biggest extremes. Though if you have any questions, ask me (same for other places).


Rotterdam:

[Tintrlvr]

Are you sure the D66 and GL maps in The Hague are correct? Looks like the exact same map. I'm sure they are correlated, but would be surprised to learn they were correlated that strongly in the Hague when the correlation is only moderate in the other cities.

[DavidB.]

Are you sure the D66 and GL maps in The Hague are correct? Looks like the exact same map. I'm sure they are correlated, but would be surprised to learn they were correlated that strongly in the Hague when the correlation is only moderate in the other cities.

Yeah, you're right. The correlation should be extremely strong, more so than in Amsterdam, but they can't have the exact same map with the exact same percentages. D66 are much stronger than GL in affluent neighborhoods like Bezuidenhout (D66 21%, GL 13%), Benoordenhout (D66 19%, GL 6%), Belgisch Park (D66 16%, GL 8%), where the VVD are strong. See also: https://uitslagen.denhaag.nl/tweede-kamerverkiezing.

[DavidB.]

The well-liked Speaker, Khadija Arib (PvdA), will get another term: no other MP has sought to challenge her, which means she runs unopposed. It is unusual for an MP in the seventh party in parliament to be speaker, but these are the times we're living in. It will increase the workload for the other eight PvdA MPs, though. This is not an issue for a party with 20+ MPs, but in this case it surely is.

[DavidB.]

A Kantar poll found that 62% of higher educated people voted VVD, CDA, D66 or GroenLinks and only 29% of lower educated voters.

Trust in political leaders:
Lower educated voters: Rutte 39%, Roemer 33%, Wilders 31%, Pechtold 29%, Klaver 28%
Average education: Rutte 56%, Pechtold 41%, Klaver 29%, Roemer 25%, Wilders 19%
Higher educated voters: Rutte 72%, Pechtold 62%, Klaver 39%, Roemer 21%, Wilders 8%

Themes that played an important role (5, 6, 7 on a seven-point scale) in party choice:
Unemployment: Higher educated 44%, average education 49%, lower educated 53%
Healthcare: Higher 58%, average 65%, lower 69%
Elderly care: Higher 43%, average 61%, lower 69%
Immigration: Higher 47%, average 52%, lower 60%
Climate change: Higher 41%, average 27%, lower 24%
---

This afternoon, parliament will discuss the findings of "explorer" Edith Schippers, who will be appointed the "informateur" for the government formation negotiations of VVD, CDA, D66 and GroenLinks. The formation talks are expected to take a long time: it is only since 2012 that parliament is in control of the formation process instead of the King, and the 2012 talks are widely seen as a mistake because VVD and PvdA were in agreement too soon without taking into account their party members and voters. This time, all parties are bent on avoiding this mistake. I still think it is unlikely a GreenRight government will eventually be formed, but the talks may take a while to create the image that all parties were serious in trying to make a deal.