Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[SunSt0rm]

Ipsos has also polled after the election, and their poll forcast a complete collapse of the left (for not so much reason). But even if this is the result, it won't change much as VVD-CDA-D66 won't have a majority as well




http://www.ipsos-nederland.nl/ipsos-politieke-barometer/barometer-van-deze-week


 

[mvd10]

And don't forget the senate. The next government still needs a majority in the senate or it'll just be a de facto minority cabinet. And VVD-CDA-D66 has 35 seats in the senate (out of 75).

And lol FvD. VVD-CDA-D66-FvD is at 79 seats in the poll. That actually would be a great cabinet, but it doesn't have a majority in the senate and I can't see FvD joining a cabinet with D66 (tbh I can't see them joining a cabinet at all).

[DavidB.]

So it remains unclear what will happen now. Klaver says he is willing to negotiate with VVD and CDA again, but only if they accept his demands on migration. VVD and CDA, in turn, say that they are willing to negotiate with GL, but only if he doesn't demand things beforehand and everything is on the table. Rutte therefore prefers not to negotiate with GL anymore and instead wants CU (though it's clear D66 are the problem here), SP or PvdA to change their minds. D66 are willing to negotiate with all non-small parties (this apparently still includes the PvdA) except for PVV and CU now; their exclusion of CU seems ridiculous and petty to me.

Schippers will present a new advise on Monday; on Tuesday there will be a parliamentary debate on the next steps in the formation.

[DC Al Fine]

Do D66 (and their voters) have some sort of special antipathy to the Christian parties, or is this just a case of D66 knowing they can never pass their social liberal stuff in a cabinet containing CU?

[DavidB.]

Do D66 (and their voters) have some sort of special antipathy to the Christian parties, or is this just a case of D66 knowing they can never pass their social liberal stuff in a cabinet containing CU?

As an arch-secular party of the "current year", D66 have a special antipathy to the Christian parties; the party more so than its electorate, even if D66 voters may also be inclined to dislike Christian parties and their policies. But the main issue here is that D66 don't want to be in a government without a party to their left also being part of that government: they fear the electoral consequences of doing so. The VVD-CDA-D66-CU combination would be especially problematic to them, because CU would block all their "progressive crown jewels", such as drug legalization (also opposed by CDA and VVD, but not as strongly) and assisted suicide for people who are not ill. So it's a bit of both.

[jeron]

Do D66 (and their voters) have some sort of special antipathy to the Christian parties, or is this just a case of D66 knowing they can never pass their social liberal stuff in a cabinet containing CU?

Governing with VVD, CDA and CU would be political suicide for D66, just like governing with VVD without other parties was a disaster for PvdA.

[DavidB.]

Do D66 (and their voters) have some sort of special antipathy to the Christian parties, or is this just a case of D66 knowing they can never pass their social liberal stuff in a cabinet containing CU?

Governing with VVD, CDA and CU would be political suicide for D66, just like governing with VVD without other parties was a disaster for PvdA.

See also the CDU/CSU-FDP and Tory-Lib Dem coalitions.

[DavidB.]

Schippers made her final report to parliament and does not want to be informateur again. She recommends that Herman Tjeenk Willink, the architect of Purple-I (PvdA-VVD-D66) in 1994 and informateur for both Purple Plus (VVD-PvdA-D66-GL) and VVD-CDA-PVV in 2010, be appointed the new informateur.

[mvd10]

I'll miss you Edith. Too bad you weren't the one to break that glass ceiling .

I wonder what the "movements" Schippers talked about a few days ago are. Probably not with CU since D66 violently killed that option. Not SP either because that's just not going to happen. Probably also not a minority cabinet, if they wanted one they would have started negotiations on it by now. So either PvdA or GL. PvdA denied it a million times, but more and more completely irrelevant 70 year old third way former PvdA politicians are saying that they should, so maybe they'll do it because of patriotism™. I still don't think it's likely though.

GL says they want to restart negotiations if VVD and CDA move closer to their position on immigration. Their position basically is to take in all refugees if a new refugee stream emerges instead of making deals like the Turkey deal with African countries. If VVD and CDA agree to this and a new refugee stream emerges they are screwed. But if this is the price for a new cabinet they might just do it. Or maybe GL decided to soften their stance on immigration, but they're in a fairly strong position right now. Anyway, I think a minority cabinet and VVD-CDA-D66-GL are the most likely options now. Usually irritating little children who obstruct everything because they didn't get their cookie don't get rewarded for their behaviour, but Pechtold may very well become an exception to that rule.

[DavidB.]

Schippers would have made a fantastic Prime Minister of VVD-PVV-CDA in a timeline where Wilders didn't go crazy.

A coalition with GL still seems unlikely to me but perhaps that's just my aversion to this option talking. Klaver hasn't exactly made it easier for Rutte and Buma by explicitly saying they have to accept his migration policies, which would of course be incredibly unpopular with right-wing voters. I also think D66 don't "deserve" it after dismissing the option with CU. I'm hoping for the option with the PvdA now, or for a VVD-CDA-D66 minority government. No idea what would be most likely now.

[mvd10]

Those PvdA pundits are really annoying btw. There must be thousands of them. At this stage there probably are more PvdA pundits than PvdA voters.

[DavidB.]

Those PvdA pundits are really annoying btw. There must be thousands of them. At this stage there probably are more PvdA pundits than PvdA voters.

Fortunately most of them are only on tv. Glad I don't have one.

[DavidB.]

Minister of State Herman Tjeenk Willink is the new informateur: only PVV (opposed to appointing a PvdA member informateur) and FvD (calling Tjeenk Willink the "cartel cardinal") voted against his appointment. Harsh words from Rutte and especially Buma to Pechtold, whose unconstructive attitude in the "pre-negotiations" with CU prevented a serious formation attempt from taking place. Asscher keeps trying to make a new round of negotiations with GL happen. Roemer still wants a government without the VVD, but in a particularly heated debate between Buma and Roemer, in which both leaders clearly annoyed one another, it became evident that Buma has no interest in a center-left coalition of "Buma and the seven dwarves", a phrase Roemer took offense with.

[DavidB.]

The Senate today approved of the Association Agreement with Ukraine despite the referendum result. A clear majority VVD, PvdA, D66, GL, CU, SGP, 9 out of 12 CDA senators and an independent eventually voted in favor of the treaty; PVV, SP, 50Plus, PvdD and 3 CDA senators opposed it.

[DavidB.]

The new informateur Herman Tjeenk Willink has been much more blunt than Schippers: instead of carefully grouping together politicians who may eventually agree, Tjeenk Willink has outlined the problems that, according to him, need to be solved most urgently: first the climate ("to prevent natural catastrophes"), second growing inequality ("not only about income figures, but also about recognition for your work and living in dignity"), and third immigration ("if we don't choose, Merkel and Macron will choose for us"). Media are acting as if he's being independent but I do get the impression that his personal views shine through here, but perhaps this approach works better than Schippers'. Tjeenk Willink's idea is to talk policy without negotiating and, on the way, find ways to bridge the differences. He will do so with VVD, CDA, D66, GL and CU. By doing so, the most viable combination of parties should be found and these parties would then start negotiating on a deal with another informateur.

[Dutch Conservative]

The new informateur Herman Tjeenk Willink has been much more blunt than Schippers: instead of carefully grouping together politicians who may eventually agree, Tjeenk Willink has outlined the problems that, according to him, need to be solved most urgently: first the climate ("to prevent natural catastrophes"), second growing inequality ("not only about income figures, but also about recognition for your work and living in dignity"), and third immigration ("if we don't choose, Merkel and Macron will choose for us"). Media are acting as if he's being independent but I do get the impression that his personal views shine through here, but perhaps this approach works better than Schippers'. Tjeenk Willink's idea is to talk policy without negotiating and, on the way, find ways to bridge the differences. He will do so with VVD, CDA, D66, GL and CU. By doing so, the most viable combination of parties should be found and these parties would then start negotiating on a deal with another informateur.

This is why people hate politics. Some fossil of the PvdA is now telling us which choices should be made. I thought that's why we had elections? When a VVD-CDA-D66-GL/CU cabinet with a PvdA informateur is a real possibility, I think we can call this a 'crisis of our democracy'.

[DavidB.]

I understand what you mean. I thought Tjeenk Willink was a good choice, but I'm less than happy now that it seems as if he's structuring the formation on the basis of what he thinks are policy priorities. His prioritization is highly subjective: for instance, most VVD voters would not say the climate is the biggest political problem right now. Like everybody else, Tjeenk Willink has a right to hold his own opinions, but he has no democratic mandate to impose them on the politicians at the negotiating table, and to me, him being explicit about his preferences makes his PvdA membership more of an issue too. I guess my main fears are that the coalition with GL happens anyway and that GL and D66 are put at an undue advantage against VVD and CDA. But I'm cautious in judging him, because it is clear that Schippers' approach didn't work and we need something new. I also think Rutte and Buma are perfectly capable of saying no when they don't agree with a proposal.

[Dutch Conservative]

His prioritization is highly subjective: for instance, most VVD voters would not say the climate is the biggest political problem right now. Like everybody else, Tjeenk Willink has a right to hold his own opinions, but he has no democratic mandate to impose them on the politicians at the negotiating table, and to me, him being explicit about his preferences makes his PvdA membership more of an issue too.

I totally agree with this. The only mandate he has is his assignment of the parliament. Him speaking about income inequality as a priority is a really partisan stand. He should be a neutral mediator.

But I'm cautious in judging him, because it is clear that Schippers' approach didn't work and we need something new.

How about: new elections? I know it probably won't solve anything, but at some point it has to be considered, just to stay trustworthy as a system. Maybe a bit too early now.

I also think Rutte and Buma are perfectly capable of saying no when they don't agree with a proposal.

I trust Buma more in this than Rutte.

[DavidB.]

I trust Buma more in this than Rutte.

Yeah, I agree. My opinion of him has only gone up ever since the campaign started. I don't always agree with him, but at least I know where we're going to disagree. At least he's sincere and seems to value honesty. Rutte will say and do anything to get what he wants.

Don't think there should be a new election. It is up to politicians to deal with the result. It is not as if we made a mistake.

[Tintrlvr]

Might a five-party VVD-CDA-D66-GL-CU coalition be a reasonable solution to a lot of the issues that are plaguing formation? Such a coalition would be less clearly on the economic right, containing two economically left-wing parties along with the more centrist D66, and that would allow D66 to accept the loss of parts of its socially progressive agenda because it would not be forced to accept other right-wing policies if GL and CU are both in government also and would have cover to their left. Would require VVD to cave on the environmental issues that ultimately sunk the agreement with GL, though, since CU would obviously side with GL there, but it's not clear that that would not be an issue with CU alone also. And I know they don't need both GL and CU in order to have a majority, but it seems like, given the inevitable ideological fractiousness of any government, it would be better to have a government that can survive some dissension (whereas VVD-CDA-D66-CU couldn't).

[DavidB.]

Might a five-party VVD-CDA-D66-GL-CU coalition be a reasonable solution to a lot of the issues that are plaguing formation? Such a coalition would be less clearly on the economic right, containing two economically left-wing parties along with the more centrist D66, and that would allow D66 to accept the loss of parts of its socially progressive agenda because it would not be forced to accept other right-wing policies if GL and CU are both in government also and would have cover to their left. Would require VVD to cave on the environmental issues that ultimately sunk the agreement with GL, though, since CU would obviously side with GL there, but it's not clear that that would not be an issue with CU alone also. And I know they don't need both GL and CU in order to have a majority, but it seems like, given the inevitable ideological fractiousness of any government, it would be better to have a government that can survive some dissension (whereas VVD-CDA-D66-CU couldn't).

It would certainly be an interesting option that should be taken into consideration. That said, most the difficulties remain. The negotiations between VVD, CDA, D66 and GL were not sunk by green issues but by the differences on migration between VVD/CDA on the one hand and GL on the other hand. What's more, CU would still have to accept that other parties in the government vote for progressive D66 crown jewels. The big divide between CDA and GL on green and agricultural issues remains too.

Given the big differences between parties I think it's unlikely that an oversized coalition will be formed, but it is certainly something an informateur should look into.

[Zinneke]

The new informateur Herman Tjeenk Willink has been much more blunt than Schippers: instead of carefully grouping together politicians who may eventually agree, Tjeenk Willink has outlined the problems that, according to him, need to be solved most urgently: first the climate ("to prevent natural catastrophes"), second growing inequality ("not only about income figures, but also about recognition for your work and living in dignity"), and third immigration ("if we don't choose, Merkel and Macron will choose for us"). Media are acting as if he's being independent but I do get the impression that his personal views shine through here, but perhaps this approach works better than Schippers'. Tjeenk Willink's idea is to talk policy without negotiating and, on the way, find ways to bridge the differences. He will do so with VVD, CDA, D66, GL and CU. By doing so, the most viable combination of parties should be found and these parties would then start negotiating on a deal with another informateur.

This is why people hate politics. Some fossil of the PvdA is now telling us which choices should be made. I thought that's why we had elections? When a VVD-CDA-D66-GL/CU cabinet with a PvdA informateur is a real possibility, I think we can call this a 'crisis of our democracy'.

I imagine there are people who also hate politics because of backroom deals or pre-arranged coalitions. Here is a guy (with a democratic mandate) too old to care about convention. Meanwhile Wilders holds Rutte personally responsible for the Manchester attacks and no word on here.

That said I think Wilders should have symbolically been given informateur status so that he could stop whining in parliament. EDIT : And also brcause he finished 2nd and the trad. parties have forgotten that.

[DavidB.]

Segers says chances of talks on VVD-CDA-D66-CU haven't become larger and would require a "miracle". Meanwhile, the on Atlas much beloved PvdA MP Dijsselbloem said his party will not be part of any government. This basically leaves us with VVD-CDA-D66-GL as the only option with a majority. Painful for VVD and CDA.

[DavidB.]

Rotterdam mayor Ahmed Aboutaleb (PvdA) thinks there should be a center-right government with the PVV. "Voters said: the center-right has to do it. It seems logical that all parties from the center to the right negotiate. The PVV is part of the right, so they will have to find a way to do it with each other. I think that's fair to voters." Aboutaleb also wants a stricter immigration policy and says: "You can only take in refugees to the extent that it is accepted by European citizens. Solidarity does not mean even more uncontrolled migration. Instead of taking in more refugees, we should provide much more development aid. How much are we willing to contribute to improving conditions elsewhere in the world in order to end undesirable types of migration?"He thinks foreigners should have the possibility to apply for jobs in the Netherlands from Dutch embassies abroad.

[Dutch Conservative]

Rotterdam mayor Ahmed Aboutaleb (PvdA) thinks there should be a center-right government with the PVV. "Voters said: the center-right has to do it. It seems logical that all parties from the center to the right negotiate. The PVV is part of the right, so they will have to find a way to do it with each other. I think that's fair to voters." Aboutaleb also wants a stricter immigration policy and says: "You can only take in refugees to the extent that it is accepted by European citizens. Solidarity does not mean even more uncontrolled migration. Instead of taking in more refugees, we should provide much more development aid. How much are we willing to contribute to improving conditions elsewhere in the world in order to end undesirable types of migration?"He thinks foreigners should have the possibility to apply for jobs in the Netherlands from Dutch embassies abroad.

Aboutaleb is one of the few PvdA-members who actually make sense sometimes. I believe he sees the problems in his own city, rather than the PvdA-elite who seem to live in an alternative universe. I doubt Rutte and Buma will ever be in for a PVV-coalition.