Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[jaichind]

Tender's prediction:

27 seats - VVD
25 seats - PVV
24 seats - CDA
17 seats - D66
15 seats - SP
14 seats - GL
11 seats - PvdA
  5 seats - CU
  4 seats - 50+
  3 seats - SGP
  2 seats - PvdD
  3 seats - Others

Turnout: 73.2% (-1.4)

You think between FvD and DENK can win 3 seats?  I can see DENK winning a seat, I would think FvD voters would end up voting tactically for VVD.

[jaichind]

Even though I do not know that much about Netherlands politics, here is my

VVD  28
PVV  24
CDA  19
D66  18
GL    16
PvdA 13
SP    13
CU     6
SGP   5
50+   4
PvdD  3
DENK 1

[jaichind]

Liberals, Freedom Party Stable at 24 Seats in I&O Survey
(Bloomberg) -- Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s Liberal Party on 24 seats in Wednesday’s election while Geert Wilders’s Freedom Party tied with the Greens on 20 seats, according to I&O Research poll
Liberal Party and Freedom Party unchanged from March 7 poll, Greens gain 3 seats
Christian Democrats gain one seat to 17
Labor loses one seat to 13, D66 loses 2 seats to 18
Diplomatic standoff between Turkey and The Netherlands largely not reflected in poll due to timing

Liberals, Freedom Party Tied at 24 Seats Each in EenVandaag Poll
(Bloomberg) -- Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s Liberal Party and Geert Wilders’s Freedom Party both set win 24 seats in Wednesday’s elections, according to a GfK poll published by Dutch TV show EenVandaag on Monday, unchanged from March 6 poll.
Christian Democrats gain 1 seat to 21 seats and would become third largest party
Labor Party loses 2 seats to 10, Socialists gain 1 seat to 16
Greens and D66 both unchanged at 16 seats each
This is the last EenVandaag poll before the elections

[jaichind]

Updated prediction based on recent events.  My main logic is the election moving toward a VVD vs PVV polarization. Of course I really do not know much most likely do not know what I am talking about

VVD  28
PVV  24
CDA  20
D66  17
GL    16
SP    15
PvdA 11
CU     5
SGP   4
50+   4
PvdD  4
DENK 1
FvD   1

[jaichind]

What is the dimensions of the ballot paper?

It depends on the electoral district (which are relevant for administrative purposes only, not for seat allocation; but some tiny parties are not standing in all constituencies). Don't know about the Australian one but ours is damn huge.

Are there any aliances fo rsurplus votes this year? As 2010 PvdA-GL-SP?

CU and SGP have an alliance, as do GL and PvdA.

So SP dropped out of the PvdA-GL alliance ?

[jaichind]

Are partial exit polls intra-day allowed under Netherlands law or will exit polls only be published at the end of voting at 9PM?

[jaichind]

Dutch Election Turnout 55% as of 5:45pm vs 48% in 2012: Ipsos
By Rudy Ruitenberg
(Bloomberg) -- Dutch election turnout a little lower than in 2006, when it was 58% at the same time, pollster Ipsos Nederland says on Twitter account.
Earlier at 3:45pm, turnout was 43% vs 37% at same time in 2012 elections
At 1:45pm, turnout was 33% vs 27% in 2012.

[jaichind]

Dutch Election Turnout 69% as of 7:15pm vs 60% in 2012: Ipsos
By Rudy Ruitenberg
(Bloomberg) -- Dutch election turnout slightly lower than in 2006, when it was 70% at the same time, pollster Ipsos Nederland says on Twitter account.
Earlier at 5:45pm, turnout was 55% vs 48% at same time in 2012 elections
At 3:45pm, turnout was 43% vs 37% in 2012
At 1:45pm, turnout was 33% vs 27% in 2012.

[jaichind]

How fast will results come in?  We had nothing  new for a while now.

[jaichind]

GL seems to be underperforming exit polls

[jaichind]

Amazing how good the exit poll is.

[jaichind]

Most likely I do not know what I am talking about but looking at the outstanding districts I really doubt  PVV and D66 will end up with the same number of seats.  Most likely PVV will get 20 and D66 will get 18.  But the current projection has them both en route to get 19.  Most likely the projection is taking account of data unknown to me.

[jaichind]

How does the PR seat allocation work? Based on what I see it seems CDA should be on target to get 18 and not 19 seats while FvD should be on target to get 3 instead of 2.