Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Dutch Conservative]

• With 2 seats and barely any poll numbes, they are irrelevant as a political force.
• The Turkish minority, or any minority do not block vote for a single party
• The media coverage, as well as yours, exposes an underlying biased political coverage

I fail to see either the relevance or interest in this obsession with DENK the NOS and you have. We have a party in Bussels called ISLAM that had a former trainer of child terrorists amongst its ranks. It remains an irrelevant political force not worth the attention that undoubtedly gives it free publicity. But then again their ise suits the black and white world some people seem to live in.

I agree with this to the extend that I do not think DENK will be a force in Dutch politics. My guess is that when elections will come, the media will make it into a two-party fight (last time: PvdA and VVD). Smaller parties will suffer from it. Max 1 seat for DENK (even that is too much for me, cant stand that Kuzu).

[Dutch Conservative]

@ DavidB

What do you think of the course of CDA at this moment? I doubt if Buma has the charisma to become a real alternative for the PM. Too bad, because I think there is still room for a large, center-right/conservative party (like CDA with Lubbers or Balkenende).



(thanks for the message btw, but I cannot send a message back. I'm 'not allowed' it says).

[Dutch Conservative]

 I think Buma has the charisma of Herman van Rompuy as described by Nigel Farage.

Exactly.  Agree with your analysis. Some regions/city's always vote the same: Utrecht votes D'66, the Biblebelt votes CU/SGP, Limburg votes PVV, Groningen SP/PvdA. The margins are with the voters  in the suburbs in the Randstad. The last election VVD knew how to appeal to these voters. My guess is that they will find a way again, already that party is presententing itself as more rightwing.

The problem for me is: I would like to vote for a traditional party if only they represented me. Now i'm forced into the PVV camp, but they are the only reliable party for key points as pro-Israël, controlled borders, law and order. I think therefor there is a huge potential for a conservative, real center-right people's party like CDA could be (compares to CSU in Bavaria).

[Dutch Conservative]

What will be the consequences of the Brexit in the Netherlands? My view:
- on the short term: nothing will happen as PVV and SP are nowhere near a majority and the constitution doesnt allow a referendum on settled law.
- as for the elections in 2017: the EU will probably be a major subject, but the main parties will stick by a 'more effecient, cheaper, more democracy, etc' kind of message with no hard promises or measures. Because the dutch electorate tends to go for the middle, VVD and D'66 will profit.
- on laws regarding more power to Europe or new memberstates a referendum will be held each time for years to come, so that will restrain the government and limit the plans of guys like Verhofstad and Schultz.
- Conclusion: untill the next giant economic collapse (I think in the not to distant future) nothing will happen. Chances of a nexit are very small.

[Dutch Conservative]

VVD: While the party will undoubtedly lose seats due to the government's unpopularity, the VVD's position is actually not as bad as it looks. A big seat loss looks inevitable, but if I had to place a bet on which party will end up the largest, I would say it is going to be the VVD again (it could also be the PVV, but I still think it's just not actually going to happen).

(...)

Again, it is highly relevant to note that a lot can and will change. Tactical voting might change the picture altogether for some of the parties. But these are the situations in which the parties find themselves for now.

I agree with this. I do think it's still possible for the VVD to win some seats. Rutte is still pretty popular. At this moment that party is getting the credits for the state of the economy, wich is (on the surface) pretty OK. I think much will depend on who is going to lead the PvdA. When it's Samsom that party will totally collapse. With Aboutaleb or Asscher things might go differently. Also, I know quit a few CDA-voters who turned to VVD last time. I don't see them coming back to the CDA. That party just has a huge problem: poor leadership and an unclear course.

Much can happen between now and march as you say, but when I had to gamble now I would bet on a coalition of VVD, D'66 and CDA, with if necessary a fourth party like ChristenUnie or GroenLinks (seems unlikely).

Great overview btw!

[Dutch Conservative]

This is where we can hear your expertise, DavidB, since you seem to judge candidates, whether in the US or Netherlands, based on how strongly they represent the Israeli right-wing's interests...

This is a completely different case and not a good comparison. Ofcourse people can support a party for certain minority issues. Imo the problem starts when those people have a double nationality. It's unacceptable that Turkish law would we forced upon Dutch citizens.

But, then again, as evidenced by the toxic Israel-Palestine debate, parties are more than willing to adopt stances to please such minorities - some of whom have never even set foot in the region - in order to win votes.

Can you give a specific example of this?

[Dutch Conservative]

Excellent idea. Some interesting polls then. Support for the following policies on the basis of current party vote, age, and education.

From most to least popular:
Ending free-market competition in the healthcare system
Investing 2 billion in defense and police
Ending death duties for children of the deceased
Pension age should be 65 again [from 67 now, DavidB.]
Prioritizing the improvement of purchasing power for the elderly
Not admitting any more asylum seekers
Implementing a binding referendum
Implementing 3-month paternity leave
All contracts should become permanent, but it should become easier to fire people [proposed D66 policy, DavidB.]
Leave the EU
Closing down all asylum seeker centers

Funny, even SP voters are for a 2 billion increase in defense/police budget (60% majority). Didnt that used to be a pacifist party? And another one: 64% of SP voters are in favor of a referendum, while only 15% of D'66 voters is in favor of that! That party was practically founded to institute the referendum

[Dutch Conservative]

The CDA now came up with their list too. All incumbent MPs are on the new list. Sybrand van Haersma Buma will continue leading the party. Right-wing Mona Keijzer, who appeals to middle-class, slightly conservative women (or at least attempts to do so...), returns on #2; Pieter Omtzigt, one of the most visible MPs, returns on #4 after being elected with 36,750 preferential votes on #39 in the last election (he was the only theoretically unelectable MP elected on the basis of preferential votes). Omtzigt, who hails from the rural east of the country, concerns himself with fiscal issues but also with the EU, Christian minorities in the Middle East, and the aftermath of the MH17 attack. He is very good at digging up stuff the government thinks it can get away with. The media love him. The party elite used to dislike him, which is why they put him on #39 in the last election despite being an incumbent MP, but after the election they had to recognize he is someone who is valuable for the CDA.

Highest newcomers on the list are Rene Peters (#3) from the south, Harry van der Molen (#7) from the northern province of Friesland, and 29-year old Anne Kuik (#11) from Groningen -- all pretty much nobodies.

I do like Omtzigt, the CDA should appoint him as leader of the party. I think he is really good in debates and one of few people in the party that is a consistent thinker. Mona Keijzer is an absolute lightweight. I really dont understand why they keep giving her such high positions. Poor CDA, it'll go from bad to worse in march.

[Dutch Conservative]

The vote was 74-75, indeed because one member of the PvdD was absent. I think that party is against the law, because of the right for self-determination (not sure if this is a correct translation). Also: the VVD allowed their members to vote their own conscience. 7 Members voted in favor of the law, 33 against. I'm not sure it will pass in the Eerste Kamer (the Senate). Personally im really against this law, so I hope not.

Rutte is really in campaign-mode again, showing himself as the law-and-order PM he is (not).

[Dutch Conservative]

So which parties voted for/against the bill?

For : PvdA, D66, SP, GroenLinks, 50Plus and 7 VVDers

Against : SGP, 20 odd VVD, CU, CDA, PvdD (Only Thieme voted though), PVV, and one PvdA.

I don't understand why this is a bad law, given the heavy bureaucratic nature of having to put yourself on the organ donor list, it should be up to those who passionately don't wish to donate to send those letters. Most people don't care or say yes when you ask them, but don't bother to send the letter.

 Spain employs a similar system and it has worked wonders

There were 33 VVD MP's that voted against the law. Yesterday in the TV-program Nieuwsuur (http://nos.nl/nieuwsuur/artikel/2132193-verdeeldheid-over-de-nieuwe-donorwet.html?title=verdeeldheid-over-de-nieuwe-donorwet) there was a VVD-senator that explained the objections.

The law clearly violates article 11 of the Constitution: 'Everyone shall have the right to inviolability of his person, without prejudice to restrictions laid down by or pursuant to Act of Parliament.'

The fact that 'most people don't care' (btw: i wouldn't presume to speak for most people) doesn't allow the state to take control of my body. Before or after death: the principle stands.

I looks like the law won't pass senate. I find it hard te believe that a 'liberal' party, like D'66 claims it is, creates and supports a law like this. It shows that there really isn't any consistent thinking within that party. Al they want to do is put society into a liberal straitjacket.

[Dutch Conservative]

It is also good to point out that it doesn't matter whether this law is "against the constitution" or not. Dutch courts have no opportunity for constitutional review. If the Senate will pass the law, the new system will be implemented.
 

I don't think that's entirely true. Firstly: indeed, constitutional review isn't a formal role/task of the courts. You cannot go to the Supreme Court with the argument that a law is against the Constitution (compared to US by example). But the Council of State Act (Raad van State) can give advice about laws and it has been critical about this new law. Secondly: the historically the First Chamber/Senate is a reflective chamber. A new law should not contradict existing law. The Constitution is part of existing law, so in that way there should be constitutional review. In the famous 'Nacht van Wiegel' about the referendum-law Wiegel used this argument.

[Dutch Conservative]

Right, but the Raad van State is only an advisory body and the Senate, while a chambre de réflexion, is ultimately not a judicial but a political institution, even if some senators may take into account legal and constitutional considerations. Unless the initiative contravenes international law, which seems highly unlikely, the ultimate decision on this law will be a political one, not a legal one, even if legal and constitutional arguments do play a role.

You're absolutely right.

[Dutch Conservative]

The 2017 budget will be released next week. Like always the most important provisions have already been leaked. After years of austerity the government suddenly found 1.5 billion to invest in healthcare, defense, education and police and 1 billion to make sure nobody will be off worse next year. It's the last budget before the election, so you could have expected it. The deficit will be 0.7% of GDP.

Economic growth is projected to be 1.7%. It's a shame the coalition and opposition didn't manage to come to an agreement on tax reform in 2015, I'm sure that could have boosted economic growth and job creation. The Dutch tax code is really bad imo. Because there are a lot of deductions (mainly the mortgage interest deduction, which costs something like 13 billion/2% of GDP) income tax rates are fairly high (36.55%, 40.4% and 52%). Stamp duty (6%) and the wealth tax (currently 1.2% for anything above 20k but it will become more progressive in 2017) also are terrible. A lot of products are taxed on the low VAT rate (6%) instead of on the normal rate of 21%. And the corporate tax rate isn't really that competitive anymore (25%). But the VVD isn't going to limit the mortgage interest deduction in a meaningful way while the other parties probably don't really want to raise the lower VAT rate (especially not on groceries, imagine the PVV/SP outrage).

Raising the higher VAT rate from 19% to 21% was a very bad decision by Kunduz and the current government not reverting that decision unnecessarily slowed down economic recovery in 2013 and 2014. To raise the lower VAT rate would be even more unpopular, so yeah, definitely not happening.

The current government talked a lot about reforming the tax code, but doing so proved to be too controversial and no substantial changes were made. Of course, the fact that the government lacks a majority in the Senate did not help either. This year's Prinsjesdag budget is supposed to be very uncontroversial. Unpopular budget cuts in the healthcare sector are reverted. There is also much focus on increasing the purchasing power of the elderly. Of course, this has nothing to do with the upcoming general election

Mvd10, do you know what changes were eventually made with regard to the the mortgage interest deduction? I have not followed that saga (not a homeowner). It was one of the big themes of the 2010 election, the Rutte-I parties did not change anything, but what happened afterwards?

The maximum value of the deduction will be limited to 38% (0.5% a year so it will take 28 years before it's fully phased in).

And the wealth tax will be made more progressive next year. The first 25k will be exempt. You'll pay 0.87% over the next 75k, 1.4% over the next 850k and 1.65% over anything above that. I actually thought this proposal didn't pass the senate because the centrist/centre-right opposition parties were opposed to it but apparently it did pass the senate.

Is there any party running on ending the mortgage-taxreduction? I think the CDA had a flat-tax plan in the past, but I don't know wether they still have.

[Dutch Conservative]

The VVD will end up with around 30 seats, probably as the largest party. Since the 2012 result was inflated because of the two-horse race, that means a "real" loss of approximately 7 seats.

I could see the VVD end up with more than 30 seats. Today I talked with some colleagues about politics. Some said: I'm not a big VVD fan, but I think Rutte has done a decent job. Its anecdotal I know, but as things stand now: I think the PM-bonus could be quit big this election. Especially when the economy holds out untill march. I could see the VVD end up with around 40 seats. Then a CDA+D'66 (I think many people are a bit tired of Pechtold) becomes a scenario, but probably still some seats short. The combination of CU+SGP could deliver about 8-10 seats, so then we are looking to a 5-party centre-right liberal-christian coalition. At this moment I would put my money on this scenario.

[Dutch Conservative]

I think these are points that many people will like, but I'm still not sure how many people will trust the VVD. It's very obvious that the VVD steers to the right before the election, in an effort to draw away support for the PVV. In the campaign that will be an issue for opposition parties. If the CDA had a charismatic leader, the votes would be up for grabs. Maybe D'66 will profit the most, when they see a chance to profile themselves as the 'real liberal party'. For now, I still think most people will buy it, because of the PM-bonus and because Rutte is pretty good in debates. Today the VVD used the term 'silent majority', in an effort to gain votes among middleclass voters. Also, they talk much about values ('normen en waarden'), a theme that used to belong to the CDA. 

Yesterday DENK launched a plan to fight racism and discrimination. One important part of the plan is the forming of a racism-policeforce. They also want to change names of streets that refer to national heroes like Michiel de Ruyter of J.P. Coen. I think these crazy plans will make this party even less attractive for many voters. They might end up with 1 or 2 seats.

[Dutch Conservative]

Deputy Prime Minister Lodewijk Asscher will soon declare his candidacy for the PvdA leadership, public broadcaster NOS just announced. He will face current party leader Diederik Samsom and contrarian PvdA MP Jacques Monasch.

It wont even be close. Asscher and Aboutaheb are by far the best politicians within the PvdA. Again the horserace scenario between VVD and PvdA?

[Dutch Conservative]

I imagine if it is going to be a two horse race it will be between Rutte and Wilders, in which case there is only one possible winner.

Could be, but then we are talking about a 30-30 race. I'm not convinced that PvdA is heading towards an all time low. I think Asscher will do really good, because:
- Klaver is too inexperienced en annoying
- People are tired of Pechtold
- Roemer just isn't a serious alternative
- the same is true for Buma

Don't underestimate the influence of the media. I think there isn't much direction currently in the electorate. The economy is still doing pretty good. Asscher had some achievements to refer to. Left/right in the Netherlands is always about 50/50 (although I think the right just edges out the left most of the elections). Lets be clear: I hope I'm wrong about this.

[Dutch Conservative]

The CDA senators will support the Association Agreement, so with VVD/PvdA (minus Monasch)/D66 in parliament and VVD/PvdA/D66/CDA in the Senate, the government has a majority and will not introduce a law to retract Dutch support for the Agreement. However, Rutte will still negotiate an additional, legally binding declaration on the Dutch interpretation of the treaty: it is not a pathway to EU membership, there will be no military aid (which contradicts parts of the very same agreement, which is rather strange), and Ukraine will not receive more EU money because of the Agreement (which, I think, contradicts the agreement as well). The Netherlands also wants to make sure there will be no freedom of goods, persons and service with Ukraine. Other EU member states and Ukraine weirdly seem to be okay with all this, which probably means the Dutch declaration isn't worth the paper it's written on.

In turn, the government would have accepted a D66 initiative (LOL) to exclude international agreements from citizens' initiatives leading to referendums. The VVD oppose referendums in the first place and have made it very clear that this referendum does not have any meaning for them, so it is mainly the PvdA that needed to be convinced to change the referendum law. So not only will the Dutch referendum be ignored, the possibility to organize any referendum related to the EU will also be buried. Gotta love Dutch democracy.

Lol, and then they wonder why there is so much distrust in government. Beautiful how D'66 has transformed from a anti-establishment to an establishment party, in 50 years.

[Dutch Conservative]

I'm much more interested in discussing the specifics of electoral systems than in Very Important Issuez and think this thread gets most interesting when digging into Dutch political history, the consequences of the electoral system, the changing political landscape, electoral patterns etc.

Just to make a start with that: i don't know for sure if it has been really discussed before in this thread, but one of the main problems of the current system (or: by many considered to be a problem) is the fragmentation of the political system and the distance between voters and their politicians. I think there are mainly two solutions to that. 1) introduction of a threshold or 2) introduction of a vote-by-district system (wich we have, but only as an administrative tool). You could also do both. Which of these two solutions do you consider the best fit for the Netherlands? I believe Thorbecke was an advocate for the constituency voting system, but ofcourse there weren't any political parties when he wrote the constitution.

Personally I would prefer optie 2, because that garantees the representation of geographical concentrated minorities in parliament (like the Biblebelt).

[Dutch Conservative]

1. The problem
...
 A threshold won't solve this: the problem is not that we have too many small parties, but that there are no large parties anymore, meaning that too many parties have to be willing to sit in the government with each other.
...

So here's an idea for a Mixed Member Majoritarian (MMM) system.

(Another idea would be a 50-seat "Greek bonus" for the winner of the election.)

Thanks for this excellent and interesting post. I have two questions:
1. Exactly why wouldn't a threshold solve the problem? The small parties together count for a lot of votes. A threshold, say 5%, would eliminate those parties in a few elections and those votes will go to one of the larger parties. In the long term parties like 50plus or GroenLinks will become smaller and disappear. They can come back, but it gets harder. Power and votes will concentrate in a couple of strong voting blocks: progressive liberals, social-democrats, nationalist liberals and christian conservatives. Something like that. The left/right balance is about 50/50 right? (I think historically a slight advantage for the right). The minority vote would still be heard but then within the parties. That way people will have an extra incentive to become an active member, because they can influence the course of the party (which isn't the case right now, because the parties are so ideological fixed and there is a party for every voting sub-group).
2. I still don't really understand the MMM-system. Wouldn't people vote the same for their two votes? E.g. vote VVD 'downticket'. How would that solve anything then? I think I'm missing something here

[Dutch Conservative]

The trouble with any sort of FPTP voting though, is the emergence of a viable third (or more) party can have a real randomising effect.

thinking of places that have forms of FPTP voting but several major parties (Canada, Scotland and the Swiss Council of States come to mind), you quite regularly get seat allocation that is quite distorted from the popular vote.

I guess the PR side would mitigate that to some extent, and I tend to agree that parallel voting looks like the best system; but is there not a risk that you have France style parties forming alliances for single member constituencies (eg GL, PS, PvdA all standing one combined candidate) which would leave you with de facto grand coalitions at the end of the day?

Exactly my fear. I think people will use both votes strategically, so it wouldn't change anything really.

[Dutch Conservative]

If in district X the VVD comes first with 35% of the vote, that would be equivalent to 35% of the national seats in a PR system, but under FPTP they win the seat (equivalent to 100%) and the others don't (0%). So even if people vote exactly the same way under FPTP, the outcomes will be different and the current issue will be solved, though parochial_boy's remark about the undesirability of having an MP win a district with less than 35% of the vote is very valid -- but that may be solved due to the fact that MPs will run as, for instance, VVD-CDA or PvdA-GL-PvdD candidates.

Now I understand! Thanks. It would be interesting to see how and where parties are concentrated.  I guess parties with a broad appeal will have a disadvantage and parties with a strong geographical base will benefit.

[Dutch Conservative]

However, the Netherlands is more socially liberal and Sabbath keeping Calvinists are a larger portion of society than Canada. Does this lead to much tension?

The former is certainly true, the Netherlands are more socially liberal. But I do not think calvinist are a larger group here. For many christians it isn't a problem to go shopping on a sunday, so they are fine with a debate on sunday. Only the traditional Reformed churches (many of who vote for SGP) keep sunday as the Sabbath. So there isn't much tension.

I don't care for the two-horse race but I do care for a large PVV and a large VVD. Still hoping for the race to begin

Thank god, Wilders refuses to appear at any occurance so no two horse race can occur and besides he will slip more in the polls because of his refusal

I'm afraid you're right and increasingly frustrated over that. If the PVV slip away so far that they aren't going to be first anyway and FVD structurally poll at 1 seat or more, I may vote for Baudet. If the PVV f**k up this time, they deserve to be replaced with something better. But there's still a 95% chance that I will vote for Gidi.

Agree, I think this development can become a real threat for the PVV. Today they announced to start campaigning again. I think the recent pollnumbers show they just need to be more visible.

[Dutch Conservative]

An interesting interview with Sybrand Buma in Vrij Nederland for those who understand Dutch.

I've read the interview. I still believe there is a world to win for CDA. When it stays on a center-right course, tough on immigration, a touch of cultural nationalism, etc. they could become the largest party.
I see 2 problems (and both brought me to NOT vote for the CDA).
1. Buma is an intelligent, somewhat sympathetic leader, but not an effective politician. In the interview you can read the kind of halfhearted language he always uses. For instance: 'yes, i think our culture has some advantages, but i wouldn't presume to say our culture is better'. What kind of message is that? Who understands where Buma realy stands. He never makes real choices.
2. The CDA is considered by many to be an unreliable party. I can see that in my family, many of who voted CDA in the past (including myself). But you can just never know what you are voting for. So the voters vote for a more pure direction: CU or SGP when they care abou christian values / VVD or PVV when they care about immigration.

I don't really buy into this Buma-surging narrative. There are still two more weeks to go and some important debates. I really doubt the PVV's numbers are falling significantly.

[Dutch Conservative]

at some point a kind of right wing coalition without wilders becomes possible, i figure.

Well, VVD-CDA-D66-SGP-CU could be considered "a kind of right-wing coalition" in my opinion, and it's definitely a possibility after the election.

I would be in favour of that! Although it's hard te imagine Van der Staaij / Segers with Pechtold in one cabinet, on moral issues they are counterparts.

Pechtold is working really hard and getting much attention. I think D'66 will win both Utrecht and Amsterdam. A good achievement, considered the absence of Wilders (and Pechtold usually profiles as the anti-Wilders). I had expected people would be more Pechtold-fatigue than they seem.

Klaver (GL) seems to have peaked too early. SP, CU and PvdA numbers seem stuck.

I still think there is enough time for the PVV to recover from the declining pollnumbers in the last weeks and I believe Wilders biggest goal will be the turnout of his voters. He has to do really well in the debates in te last week.