Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[SunSt0rm]

Exit polls in 10 minutes

Most important is whether the 30% threshold will be reached, its going to be Too Close to Call

[SunSt0rm]

Exit Poll

Turnout 29%

For 36%
Against 64%

[SunSt0rm]

50+ has overtaken PVDA, there is no sign of positive effect yet of the PVDA leadership election in the polls

[SunSt0rm]

Could be, but nobody is expecting that the PVV will ever form a government let alone Wilders be PM.
Next, the voters of 50plus are closer to the PVV than to the VVD. 50Plus and PVV wants to lower the retirement age and ease the rules for Pension Funds, while VVD wants to increase the retirement age and dont want to ease the rules as it would harm the younger generation

[SunSt0rm]

Curious to hear how the other Dutch posters think about this, because I'm starting to get the idea that if (big if, probably not going to happen!) the PVV truly becomes the largest party with, say, 7 seats more than the VVD, as the polls now indicate, that a coalition consisting of both PVV and VVD may be in the cards (though even then it is unlikely).

Most Dutch voters think the PVV should be in the government if they become the largest party and it will become extremely difficult for the VVD to ignore that wish, particularly because most VVD voters are not opposed to cooperation with the PVV. If VVD and PVV add up to 60 seats and they have a majority with 50Plus, SGP and (difficult again, I know) CU, a PVV-VVD minority government with Rutte as PM and the CU, 50Plus and SGP supporting this trainwreck from the outside (including some occasional CDA support wherever necessary, though obviously not nearly as close as in the Rutte-I govt as the idea of cooperating with the PVV is very, very toxic in the CDA) may actually happen. The real problem for such a PVVVD coalition would be in the Senate, but CDA senators may be willing to budge there. Of course, this all assumes that Wilders is willing to govern, which is absolutely not something I would be willing to bet on.

Now, to be clear, I don't expect the PVV to win by a large margin (say, 6+ seats) over the "second party", I don't expect Rutte to be okay with governing with the PVV, and I don't think CU would be likely to accept any of this... but I also don't think it is impossible, especially if the political landscape would be as awfully fragmented as polls currently suggest and if alternative would be some centrist coalition that would have to involve four or five out of VVD, CDA, D66, SP, GL and PvdA. Most parties would rather sit back and watch the sh**tshow from the outside. It's still extremely unlikely. But I don't think it's impossible.

I think such a scenario is very unlikely. The only person in the VVD, I guess would serious consider is Zijlstra, who is on the right of the VVD, but even then its still unlikely. The differences between the VVD and PVV are large, they may only agree on immigration and slashing on foreign aid, but economically, on Europe and on the Islam, the differences are large. Even if they somehow agree with each other, I only think SGP and VNL may join them, but such a combination will not have a majority, and is far from a majority in the senate. About 50plus no idea, but I dont thnk the VVD is willing corperate with both the PVV and 50plus.

CDA will not support them after what happened in Rutte-1 and CU is to the left of the CDA, so no chance. Furthermore any proposal from the PVV on immigration, Europe or the Islam will not make it through the senate anyway.

On the other hand, an establishment coalition (VVD, CDA, D66, PVDA, GL and CU) seems difficult as well, such a coalition would weak and very vunerable to populists parties. Next, I dont think GL and PVDA are willing to join a centre right coalition after what happened to the PVDA now. On the other hand, I find it difficult to imagine that CDA and D66 will join a left coalition of PVDA, SP and GL. The only realistic stable coalition I see will consist of VVD, CDA and D66 with support of CU and SGP. But then D66 would have to suck the left vote. So yeah, it seems Dutch politics is clusterfck

How secure is Roemer's leadership of the SP at the moment, given their poor polling at the moment?

Secured before the election, but he is probably finished after the election

[SunSt0rm]

Rutte says "chances of cooperating with the PVV are zero."

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2017/01/15/rutte-kans-op-samenwerking-met-pvv-is-nul-a1541314

He would say that, wouldn't he

Again, look how well it worked with SP. Polling as high as 36 to gaining no seats.

But this is still a more surprising move IMO. The right wing of the VVD are definitely nit going to like a 5 party coalition to Rutte's left instead of a simple 3 party PVV-VVD-50+.

I would like this coalition to happen. It would kill 3 birds with one stone.

The reason the SP failed in 2012 was because Roemer underperformed in the debates.

Parliamentary VVD leader Zijlstra, who is on the right of the VVD, already says that the next coalition would not be ideal. He already distanced the VVD from the PVV in the past weeks saying that cooperation between these parties is not going to happen. And he tries to frame the PVV as economically left to the SP and socially unacceptable.

The tactic of the VVD for this election seems to attract VVD-PVV supporters by saying that a vote for PVV will be wasted anyway (similar in 2012) and by distancing itself from the PVV, it can attracts D66&CDA-VVD supporters who wants a centre right coalition but are afraid that the VVD will cooperate with the PVV.

Rutte says "chances of cooperating with the PVV are zero."

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2017/01/15/rutte-kans-op-samenwerking-met-pvv-is-nul-a1541314

He would say that, wouldn't he

Again, look how well it worked with SP. Polling as high as 36 to gaining no seats.

But this is still a more surprising move IMO. The right wing of the VVD are definitely nit going to like a 5 party coalition to Rutte's left instead of a simple 3 party PVV-VVD-50+.

I would like this coalition to happen. It would kill 3 birds with one stone.

But they only have 24 seats in the senate (26 if you also include SGP) and you need 38 seats for a majority in the senate. PVV-VVD-CDA-50PLUS-SGP has a majority in the senate but I can't see the CDA joining a coalition with the PVV.

VVD-CDA-D66 with support from CU and SGP (and maybe even 50PLUS) might get a majority, and I think the VVD would be fairly happy with that coalition. 50PLUS probably would support a ''neoliberal'' cabinet as long as pensions are raised. I'm not sure if D66 wants to be in a coalition with 50PLUS and 2 socially conservative parties though.

The base of D66 will definetly rebel against such a coalition with 50 plus, its base consists mainly of young people who are very against 50 plus. Moreover, the combination with social conservatives (in particular SGP) will expose d66 on the left wing.

[SunSt0rm]

The criteria to participate in the debates have been announced. The most important debate is the so-called 'Prime Minister Debate' of RTL consisting of the four main parties. These debates have changed the dynamics in the election of 2010 and 2012. In 2012, PVDA narrowingly made it to the debate (at a cost of D66) and Samsom performance give rise to the PVDA. Without that debate, the PVDA would likely not have scored that high. And in 2010, Rutte debate performances made him Prime Minister.

This year, the top 4 parties are chosen based on the average poll of begin february. With the current polls, the VVD and PVV are almost guaranteed to be invited. However, the third and fourth position are less clear. Five parties have have a shot to make it to that debate: D66, CDA, GL, PVDA and SP.

The average polls so far are:
D66 9.9%
GL 9.6%
CDA 9.4%
PVDA 8.2%
SP 7.8%

The reason it is important is that I expect that the left vote will consolidate to one left party in the end and the one that is invited to the debate will have much higher chance to be that one.

[SunSt0rm]

How many party manifestos/policy planks have been released btw?

People have been making fun about the a4 of the PVV. Other remarkable thing may be the Party for Anmials not declining the conspiracy theory Chemtrails. The campaigns havent really started yet.

The only thing that are currentylu being discussed now:
1) discussing which party, and in particular the VVD, is willing to cooperate with the PVV
2) every left party tries to present itself as alternatie to the VVD and PVV
3) small right wing parties (VNL, FvD) attacking Rutte on the Ukraine Referendum

[SunSt0rm]

-PvdA: memberships economically and culturally more left-wing. Base economically more left-wing, but culturally more conservative (want to be stricter on immigrations etc.).
-CDA: Memberships a bit more left. Base: two wings. North, which is culturally similar to the memberships and the catholic south base, which is defintely more conservative.
-VVD: Memberships represents the party (like DavidB says it is an applause machine). Base is right to the party.
-D66: memberships economically left to the party and the base as well.
-GL: Currently correct. In the era of Sap and last years of Halsema, party was right to its base
-SP: Memberships no idea. Base definetely more conservative
-PVV: Base probably less extreme
-CU: Membership seems to be correct. Base probably more conservative

Biggest differences between leadership and base is defintely at the PvdA. Every time the PvdA governs, the memberships rebel and the base move away in the polls.
This difference is also noticable at the SP, where the base is more conservative than the leadership.
Another big difference is at D66 as well, however it seems that its memberships and base doesnt care (or dont know about it). Although I think the base of D66 under Pechtold has changed from 10 years ago. Its base has become more pragmatic and I think the culturally progressive elitists from the VVD have moved to D66 as well like former VVD leader Voorhoeve.

[SunSt0rm]

Since free money is always popular, D66 leader Pechtold has now promised 500 euros to every working Dutch citizen. This is pretty lol because it resembles one of Rutte's broken promises everybody still remembers, in which he guaranteed working Dutch people would receive 1,000 euros if he were to be elected. Last year, Rutte publicly apologized for breaking that promise. In 2012, Pechtold dismissed Rutte's claim as populist and not credible, but apparently those objections don't count anymore.

Pechtold also seeks to cut taxes by lowering the second (40.8%) and fourth (52.0%) personal income tax brackets: "families who earn somewhat more than average form the backbone of our society", Pechtold stated, clearly looking to win over D66-VVD swing voters. I'm sure Jesse Klaver doesn't mind: D66 may have much more to lose (to GL) than to win (from the VVD) by doing so. I'm not at all convinced this is a successful strategy. D66 members I am acquainted with are not pleased.

I agree that this strategy seems to be very odd as there are more GL-D66 swing voters than VVD-D66 swing voters. I think the VVD-D66 swing voters mostly consider D66 for less important elections like provincial, municipality and Europan Parliament, but that this group vote for VVD during general election.
I think if D66 wants to become the third biggest party it has to move to the left and compete for the GL-D66 voters. This can work especially when Pechtold and not Klaver is invited for the Prime Minister debate (this strategy can still be used when the debate consists of VVD, PVV, CDA and D66)

D66 under Pechtold has economically moved to the right. In the past, D66 cooperated more with PvdA, but I get the feeling that Pechtold prefers to work with the VVD now. In the provincial election of 2015, it even seems that D66 was campaigning right to the VVD. The base of D66 has changed a bit as well. Its main base now are more elitist or young people just leaving university having a good paid job or having the prospect of it (as student). And these tax plans would benefit this group most. This group is more pragmatic than the more idealistic base (which is larger). I sometimes got the feeling that only a few people regard D66 as right to the centre. The image of D66 is that it is still regarded as a left party by the media or voters. It seems that many people havent feeled that D66 has moved to the right, which it defenitely has done.

[SunSt0rm]

Polls have trouble to measure the support for the PVV. During the last general election, european and provincial election, they clearly overestimate the support of the PVV, but in the election of 2010, they underestimated it. You should also account that 70% of the voters can still change their vote before the election now, which can create large errors. Moreover, the polls have trouble to measure strategic voting as well, especially when there is a two horse race.

The big movements in the polls are yet to happen when the debates starts

[SunSt0rm]

The draw for the NOS debate the evening before the election has taken place. Based on the Peilingwijzer and the current parliamentary composition, the main debate will have representatives of VVD, PvdA, PVV, CDA, D66, SP and CU. The one-on-one debates that will take place are as follows:

Klaver (GL) vs. Buma (CDA)
Pechtold (D66) vs. Roemer (SP)
Segers (CU) vs. Rutte (VVD)
Asscher (PvdA) vs. Wilders (PVV)

This seems good for Asscher, Wilders, Roemer and possibly Pechtold and bad for Rutte, who won't get the one-on-one debate with Wilders he wanted. Klaver will also not really get the chance to shine against moderate hero Buma.

The kiddie table debate that will take place before the main debate includes representatives of all small parties currently represented in parliament: SGP, 50Plus and PvdD (who obtained their seats in the election) and VNL, DENK and Nieuwe Wegen (who obtained their seats as splitoffs). Round one will have Van der Staaij (SGP), Krol (50Plus) and Oosenbrug (Nieuwe Wegen); round two will be somewhat more spectacular with Thieme (PvdD), Roos (VNL) and Kuzu (DENK). Roos already came up with the remark that this debate is VNL "Voor Nederland" versus DENK "Voor Turkije".

FVD were upset that they aren't included at the kiddie table debate, arguing that VNL aren't any more legitimately elected than FVD. This may obviously be true, but there will be 30 parties participating in the election, more than in any election since the early 1970s. No one wants to have all these parties participate in the kiddie table debate, and opening the door to FVD means opening the door to any crazy party. You have to make some selection.

They will be two rounds of debates at the NOS. The second round is:

Buma vs Pechtold
Roemer vs Asscher
Rutte vs Klaver
Wilders vs Segers

I think Klaver is happy to debate one on one with Rutte

[SunSt0rm]

How did CU get in the adult debate but SGP and PvdD did not?

More seats in parliament, more seats in the polls. I also think 50Plus would get into the adult debate before either of SGP and PvdD because of the polls. Thank G-d that didn't happen.

I am no fan of 50plus either but for the last couple of months 50plus has been consistently higher in the polls than CU. so, according to the polls 50plus should have been in the adult debate.

The criteria are current seats + average seats in the polls. 50+ only has 1 seat not and is currently polling about 9 seats making 10 seats, while CU has 5 seats and in the polls it will have 6 seats so they will have 11 seats, more than 50+

[SunSt0rm]

When I go onto the English wiki for Dutch opinion polls, each poll has 1-4 seats going to "Other". When I go on the Dutch version, it has DENK, Pirates and what appears to be two PPV-alternative parties winning between 0-2 seats each dependingo on the poll. What are these parties' chances of getting into parliament?

Denk has a decent chanchee getting at least one seat. Pirate not. VNL and FvD probably small to get in, if they would have merged, maybe they would have a chance

[SunSt0rm]

TNS investigated strategic voting in the upcoming election and they found than up to 20% of the voters of the other parties are willing to vote strategic in a horce race between the VVD and PVV. 22% of the voters of D66, 17% of CDA, and even 14% of GL and 13% of the PVDA and 50+ voters are willing to vote VVD to block making the PVV from being the greatest. On the other side, the PVV can only count on little support from 50+ and the SP.

The result is somewhat suprising even though the Netherlands is used to strategic voting. Most of the strategic voters don't want a government with the PVV in power, but by voting strategically on the VVD ironically they only make the chances somewhat greater, while if they would stay with the first preference the chances are 0.

[SunSt0rm]

RTL today announced that their Prime Minister's Debate is going to happen anyway, but with CDA, PvdA, D66, GL and SP, and without VVD and PVV. This is very bad news for Rutte, who wanted a two-horse race in which he could cast himself as the anti-Wilders candidate. While PVV voters are largely locked in (and unlikely to vote for any of the above parties anyway), many D66 voters (and to a lesser extent even GL and PvdA voters) would consider a vote for Rutte in a two-horse race with Wilders. However, it is now more likely that Jesse Klaver will emerge as the "anti-Wilders" (or alternatively do a Roemer and crash and burn, but this seems less likely). Meanwhile, the scandal on Security & Justice has made it to the headlines again, because Nieuwsuur found out that four of Rutte's most important advisors knew about the real cost of Teeven's deal too, which makes it even less credible that Rutte himself didn't know, as he himself continues to insist. A bad day for the VVD.

Its going to be an interesting and very important debate for these 5 parties. They have the chance to put themself as alternative to the VVD and PVV and can make it a somwhat 3 way race. I am not so sure if its wise of Wilders to avoid many of these debates. He is not going to debate either in the debate in south Netherlands (Noord Brabant and Limburg), where all other party leaders are going to debate and where his base is. He is a strong debater and now it seems like he is trying to avoid any event and be accountable for his program, which could be suspious for his soft base, which expects more than just a protest vote like the poll of Eenvandaag shows, where he dropped 5 seats or TNS where he dropped 8 seats (could also be that people didnt like the photoshop)

[SunSt0rm]

Yes, it is an extremely important debate for the parties that do participate. I wouldn't be surprised if Klaver skyrockets in the polls after the debate and makes it a three-way race, at the expense of all the other participating parties (and the VVD!).

I honestly have quite a low opinion of the PVV's campaigns. Wilders is a good debater but he often seems to be out of touch with what his potential electorate (as opposed to his base) wants to hear. The photoshop, largely judged negatively according to De Hond's findings, is an example of this. I already dread the inevitable moment where he brings up Nexit, which will drive tons of VVD-PVV swing voters straight into Rutte's arms. Many people tend to dislike the status-quo and the establishment and then project their wishes upon Wilders, who often does best when he says nothing and lets others destruct themselves. So I don't think it is necessarily bad for him not to participate, even though it is clear that the SP could take votes from him by participating and that he will have a problem turning out his base since he barely campaigns in the country either.

I don't know what debate in the South you're aiming at -- the NOS radio debate? Or does the RTL debate take place in the South? Anyway, I agree that it may, after all, turn out to be tricky for him not to participate in too many debates. It is a dilemma. I wouldn't be surprised if another broadcaster would come up with a one-on-one Rutte-Wilders debate at the end of the month.

No a debate hosted in Eindhoven by regional broadcasters from Noord Brabant and Limburg on March 11th. Rutte, who didnt participated in the debate of the North, and the other leaders already confirmed they will participated. The south is a very important swing area between CDA-VVD-PVV and SP-PVV.

http://www.limburger.nl/cnt/dmf20170213_00036196/rutte-wel-in-debat-bij-debat-van-het-zuiden

[SunSt0rm]

I think most important reason that the PVV is in somewhat decline is that many people don't view PVV as a serious party. This is confirmed with his photoshop action last week and the fact that he tries to avoid the media and the debates.

But I think its too early to conclude too much from these polls as the campaigns havent really started yet.

[SunSt0rm]

Even as the PVV is declining, its still very hard to make a stable coalition. VVD-CDA-D66-CU are still short on the majority. I hope the VVD can absorb more voters from the PVV, while D66 can stop the Klavermania and get some GL voters, so a somewhat stable center-right coalition can be made after the election.

[SunSt0rm]

How will you be voting, Sunstorm?

I'm hoping for VVD-CDA-D66-PvdA-CU. As many establishment parties as possible.

D66 or VVD.

Although I think the current coalition was fine, I think we should avoid a complete establishment coalition (VVD-CDA-D66-PVDA-GL). I understand you want a complete establishment coalition so it is a easy target for populist parties (PVV and SP). I dont think PVDA or GL alone will prop up a centre right coalition as it would be suicidal to them. So I think either both of them would join such a coalition or none of them.  So I hope a coalition of VVD-CDA-D66-CU even with outside support of SGP is enough.

[SunSt0rm]

In policy terms the coalition you prefer would probably be the best option possible, and I would be reasonably happy with such an outcome -- it would probably even be an improvement over the current coalition, even though that will also depend on the VVD's relative strength. My thoughts on party politics are very ambiguous and tend to fluctuate a lot even if my principles remain the same. I don't really have that much of a negative opinion of the current government. It's really mainly immigration and the EU I'm focusing on

If Asscher doesn't resign after the inevitable massive defeat, I could see him having the chutzpah to lead the party into another coalition because "he wants to take responsibility" (i.e. he doesn't want to be unemployed). I don't see GL enter the coalition unless they become the largest party (extremely unlikely) or the largest party behind the PVV (which may be possible if left-wing consolidation takes place and the VVD implodes), in which case Klaver could become PM. In that case, the coalition becomes an absolute trainwreck and GL will receive its 2012 result in the following election.

I doubt Asscher will resign or be fired by his party after the election unless Aboutaleb wants to become leader (which I dont think will happen immediately after the election). He can always blame the loss on Samsom. I already have the feeling that the PvdA has accepted a heavy loss like the CDA did in 2012.

[SunSt0rm]

Does the Netherlands generally experience the phenomenon of "swing back" to the incumbent party in the run up to the election, as voters end up picking the "safe choice"?

Could that not explain some of PVV's recent drop? It would seem to tie up with what happened to the SP last time

Yes a bit different, its called the Prime minister bonus, where the biggest party is profiting from having the prime minister. In most cases its the junior party that suffers the consequences of the government. In most elections, there is two-way races between the PvdA and VVD or CDA, which sucks the voters of smaller parties.

The case of the SP in 2012 was the dreadful performance of Roemer in the debates that explains the fall of the SP.

[SunSt0rm]

I dont see any reason why Rutte has to be replaced if the VVD is going to be the biggest non-PVV party. Rutte strenght is that he is flexible and can built several coalitions if needed, which will be needed for the next formation. Rutte is still popular despite some scandals, the only one that has the same favorable ratings is Pechtold (D66). Removing Rutte will push the VVD more to the right with Zijlstra.

[SunSt0rm]

Ethobarometer got different numbers. i think its difficult to measure the vote of people with migrant background as the numbers of voters are very small and before the creation of Denk there was no need to measure their vote

[SunSt0rm]

I dont see any reason why Rutte has to be replaced if the VVD is going to be the biggest non-PVV party. Rutte strenght is that he is flexible and can built several coalitions if needed, which will be needed for the next formation. Rutte is still popular despite some scandals, the only one that has the same favorable ratings is Pechtold (D66). Removing Rutte will push the VVD more to the right with Zijlstra.

Offering Foreign Affairs to Rutte would be a solution. He wouldn't necessarily have to resign as party leader. I think Rogier's scenario will only be relevant if GL is needed and I don't think it's impossible. But yes, I agree it is far more likely that Rutte will stay on, even if GL is needed.

Why the hell would GL prefer Zijlstra or Schippers instead of Rutte?